Recent migration trends and the refugee crisis Jean-Christophe Dumont, Head, International Migration Division, OECD Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Directorate Immigration flows are on the rise in most OECD countries. Preliminary data for 2014 suggest that permanent migration flows increased sharply for the first time since 2007 and are almost back to their pre-crisis level. Intra-regional migration, notably within Europe, is increasing together with the international competition for talents. What are the key trends regarding labour migration policies in the OECD? In the meantime, Europe will record in 2015 an unprecedented number of asylum seekers and refugees with up to one million asylum applications; an estimated 350 000 to 450 000 people could be granted refugee or similar status, more than in any previous European refugee crisis since World War II. Can OECD countries cope with this crisis and what are the prospects for future developments?

1. THE OECD INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION OUTLOOK 2015
AND THE REFUGEE CRISIS
Jean-Christophe Dumont
Head of International Migration (ELS)
jean-christophe.dumont@oecd.org
1 October, 2015

2. Highlights from the
2015 OECD International
Migration Outlook

3. Permanent flows to OECD countries have been
on the rise – even prior to the refugee crisis
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.1
4.0 4.0 4.0
4.1
4.3
3.5
4.0
4.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (e)
Millions
14%
8%
35%8%
5%
30%
Work
Accomp.
family of
workers
Family
Humanitarian
Other
Free
movements
Evolution of permanent migration inflows to OECD countries
Distribution of permanent migration inflows
to OECD countries by category in 2013

4. % of foreign-trained doctors, 2005/06 and 2012-14
There has been a large increase in the number
of foreign-trained doctors and nurses virtually
everywhere
Drivers of migration of health care professionals:
• EU enlargement;
• Global economic crisis;
• Adoption of the WHO Code (2010);
• Improved domestic training and education.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005-06 2012-14

5. Expatriation rates of doctors in 2010/11
African countries have the highest
incidence of medical brain drain

6. The Refugee Crisis

7. In 2015, asylum seeking will be at an all-time
high
0
200
400
600
800
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Thousands
OECD
EU
Germany
401
652
269
476
85
173
Jan-Jul
2014
Jan-Jul
2015
OECD
EU
Germany
Evolution of number of new asylum seekers,
1980-2014
2015 vs. 2014:
January to July

8. Syria is the main origin country, but it accounted for only
14% of the asylum flows to the OECD in the first
semester of 2015
1st semester 2013
OECD Total =250 000
1st semester 2014
OECD Total =300 000
1st semester 2015
OECD Total =500 000

9. The number of asylum seekers from Syria, Afghanistan,
Albania and Iraq has increased dramatically since April
0
5
10
15
20
2013M01
2013M02
2013M03
2013M04
2013M05
2013M06
2013M07
2013M08
2013M09
2013M10
2013M11
2013M12
2014M01
2014M02
2014M03
2014M04
2014M05
2014M06
2014M07
2014M08
2014M09
2014M10
2014M11
2014M12
2015M01
2015M02
2015M03
2015M04
2015M05
2015M06
Thousands
Syria
Afghanistan
Albania
Eritrea
Iraq
Kosovo

10. Germany, Hungary and Austria account for half
of the total newly-registered flows
1st semester 2013
OECD Total =250 000
1st semester 2014
OECD Total =300 000
1st semester 2015
OECD Total =500 000

11. In per-capita terms, Hungary, Austria and Sweden
have been the most affected countries thus far
7 714
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Jan-Jul 2014 Jan-Jul 2015
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
2012 2013 2014
New asylum seekers per million population in selected OECD countries

12. The new inflows no longer come primarily
through the Central Mediterranean
Source: Detections of illegal border crossings on the basis of Frontex data, the Economist, OECD Secretariat

13. I. Unprecedented numbers
II. Strong concentration of asylum seekers in just a handful of
entry points and destination countries
III. Advances in communication technology and the emergence of
new smuggling routes leads to rapidly changing situations
IV. Diversity of origin countries and deterioration of the situation in
transit countries / countries of temporary refuge
V. Unaccompanied minors
VI. Large differences in the skills and qualifications of refugees
VII. Many crises in parallel in countries relatively close to Europe
with little prospect for improvement in the near future
VIII. Part of the public opinion in several European countries is
hostile to further migration flows, including refugees
Why is this refugee crisis different ?

14. Priorities for policy
Tackle the humanitarian urgency (accomodation, processing, integration into
school etc.)
Reinforce cooperation with countries of origin and transit
Anticipate possible policy responses in light of alternative scenarios for
future developments
Enforce and organise returns
Tackle the fear regarding migrants in the public debate
Integrate refugees and their children into our societies and economies (language
courses, assessment and development of skills, engage with employers)

15. For further information:
www.oecd.org/migration
jean-christophe.dumont@oecd.org
15/11
Thank you for your attention