Obe 100415 Marginal Field Fund R1

OriginBusiness Engineering
Fallow Field Fund
Investment opportunities in Dutch Marginal Fields

2010 | © Origin Business Engineering B.V. 2
Origin
A Marginal Field
Marginal Field:
“A field that may not produce enough net income to make it
worth developing at a given time; should technical or
economic conditions change, the field may become
commercial”‐Oil & Gas Fiscal Glossary.

Origin
Marginal Field Size - Gas
» Gas reserves are concentrated in a very small number of giant accumulations:
Some 190 giant reservoirs account for 57% of initial global gas reserves.
Slightly fewer than 25,000 small fields hold only 28% of world reserves; 15% are in “marginal” fields
with less than 10 bcm.
About 80% of these small reservoirs are in North America. In Western Europe, most marginal fields
are in the United Kingdom.
In North America, an extensive network infrastructure and open access make commercial
exploitation of marginal fields possible, provided the gas price is high enough.
New offshore infrastructure development may make fields now considered “marginal” economic in
the North Sea.
Global Stranded Gas Potential (tcm, as of 1 January 2000)
Associated gas 12
Deep offshore 8
Marginal fields 5
Remote fields 24‐40
Total 49‐65

Origin
Technology as enabler for marginal field development
» Simplicity, Standardization, Sharing, Speed;
» Southern North Sea: SNS Satellite Platform evolution last 10 years
Conventional jackets
> $45mln/platform
typically
Mid 1990’s 2000 2005
Standardized scale down approach
Up to $30mln
/platform (including power cable)
“Monotower”
<< $ 15mln per platform

Origin
Investment strategy
» Low risk venues
Rule of law under stable democracy, fiscal stability;
Proven and prolific hydrocarbon basins;
Accessible infrastructure and markets;
Competitive advantage;
» Portfolio approach spreads risk for non producing wells;
» Marginal fields provide an excellent investment opportunity stimulated by regulators;
» The Netherlands
Top quartile fiscal regime ‐ Royalty 0%, tax 50%, depreciation‐at‐will for 2009, 2010, 2011;
Strong government support ‐ Government participates as 40% or 50% working interest partner;
Extensive infrastructure – Limited investment required, shallow water, <40m;
Numerous undeveloped discoveries ‐ 75 offshore pools, 3.5 Tcf reserves, estimated country
prospective undiscovered resources 5.5 –13.4 Tcfhigh commercial exploration success rate >60%;

Origin
Dutch Fallow fields – Potentially to become marginal
development opportunities
Onshore Field Licence type
Beerta Production licence
Donkerbroek Production licence
Exloo Production licence
Hollum‐Ameland Production licence
Kijkduin‐Zee Production licence
Kerkwijk Exploration licence
Lekkerkerk Production licence
Nes‐Noord Production licence
Nieuweschans Production licence
Oppenhuizen Exploration licence
Terschelling‐Noord Production licence (applied for)
Terschelling‐West Open area
Ternaard Production licence
Vlagtwedde Production licence
Zevenhuizen Production licence
Offshore Field Licence type
B17‐FA Production licence (applied for)
E12‐LE Open area (applied for)
E12‐TE Open area (applied for)
F14‐A Exploration licence
F17‐FA Exploration licence
F17‐FB Exploration licence
F18‐FA Exploration licence
K04A‐Z Production licence
K18‐FB Production licence
L01‐FB Exploration licence
L04‐D Production licence
L07‐F_L07‐FN Production licence
L10‐19 Production licence
L10‐6 Production licence
L11‐1_L11‐7 Production licence
L12‐FA Production licence
L12‐FD Production licence
L14‐6 Open area
L16‐FA Production licence
M11‐FA Exploration licence
P01‐FA Exploration licence
P01‐FB Exploration licence
P02‐1 Exploration licence
P02‐5 Exploration licence
P02‐E Exploration licence
Q07‐FA Exploration licence
Q13‐FB Exploration licence
Q13‐FC Exploration licenceSource: http://www.nlog.nl/en/reserves/reserves/stranded.html

Origin
Market Dynamics – Dutch Marginal fields
» Development of marginal fields – Three drivers:
High oil price;
Reduced development and production costs;
Access to marginal opportunities which are part of larger concessions owned by one of the oil
majors;
» Dutch fiscal and licensing system is critical, stability and predictability fiscal system vital;
» Marginal and fallow field developers need access to opportunities, recycle fallow fields and
acreage (“use it or lose it”);
» Access to capital is scarce and expensive, especially for small companies like Cirrus;
» Only small companies like Cirrus, Wintershall, SES are willing to pursue fallow/marginal fields
because of absent large overhead costs of the oil majors and more efficient ways of working;
» Stimulate small field (satellite) developments whilst infrastructure is in place but ageing;
Removal of SPS for small fields;
Depreciation at will for small fields; early cash flow (critical for small companies like Cirrus).
» Current cyclical low provides good investment opportunities.

Origin
Competitive Landscape
» Southern North Sea Basin;
» Mature development area ‐> Focus on fallow and marginal fields;
» Relatively small number of competitors for marginal gas fields;
» Oil Majors not to invest due to high cost level of their organizations;
» Strong stimulus packages from regulatory arm;

Origin
Oil Gas Price Deck Q1 2010
Year Oil
($/Bbl)
WTI Gas
($/MMBtu)
2010 (Rem) 56.41 4.52
2011 60.65 5.12
2012 63.15 5.53
2013 64.12 5.71
2014 64.45 5.76
2015 0.4% 0.5%
1st Quarter 2010 Price Survey: Mean of 43
Participating Banks – Base Case
Current Oil Pricing – Base Case ($/Bbl)
Current Gas Pricing – Base Case ($/MMBtu)

Origin
Production license holders recent changes
Dutch Territoir (onshore)
Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2 Verleend Einde Staats courant Jaar verleend Jaar Einde
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V.   Drenthe II   1888 18‐7‐2007 140   2007
Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V.   Andel III   217 18‐11‐2008 30‐12‐2038 234   2008 2038
Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V.   Drenthe III   389 18‐7‐2007 140   2007
Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V.   Drenthe IV   7 18‐7‐2007 140   2007
Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V.   Papekop   63 8‐6‐2006 19‐7‐2031 113   2006 2031
Smart Energy Solutions B.V.   Oosterwolde   4 7‐12‐2006 17‐1‐2017 242   2006 2017
TAQA Piek Gas B.V.   Alkmaar   12 23‐12‐2006 232   2006
TAQA Onshore B.V.   Bergen II   221 23‐12‐2006 232   2006
TAQA Onshore B.V. Dyas B.V. Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V.   Bergermeer 19 23‐12‐2006 232   2006

Origin
Exploration license holders
Dutch Territoir (onshore)
Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2 In werking Einde Staats courant
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. Andel IV 85 10‐6‐2006 21‐3‐2010 113
Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Oosterwolde 127 20‐4‐2007 31‐5‐2012 83
Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Utrecht 1152 26‐4‐2007 6‐6‐2012 85

Origin
Production Licenses recent changes
Dutch Continental Shelf (offshore)
Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2
In
werking Einde
Staats
courant
Jaar in
werking Jaar Einde
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. L12a   119   25‐9‐2008 14‐3‐2030 189   2008 2030
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. L12b & L15b   92   6‐8‐2008 12‐3‐2030 155   2008 2030
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. L12d   225   25‐9‐2008 14‐3‐2030 189   2008 2030
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. B L12c   30   6‐8‐2008 12‐3‐2030 155   2008 2030
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. B L15d   62   6‐8‐2008 12‐3‐2030 155   2008 2030
Wintershall Noordzee B.V. E15b   21   20‐2‐2008 1‐4‐2033 38   2008 2033
Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. M01a   213   28‐6‐2007 8‐8‐2022 128   2007 2022
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E16a   29   29‐6‐2007 9‐8‐2021 128   2007 2021
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E17a & E17b   114   28‐6‐2007 8‐8‐2021 128   2007 2021
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. F03b   335   13‐12‐2007 9‐9‐2022 245   2007 2022
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. K18a   36   15‐3‐2007 9‐5‐2023 57   2007 2023
Venture Production Nederland B.V. F03a   62   13‐12‐2007 9‐9‐2022 245   2007 2022
Wintershall Noordzee B.V. K18b   155   15‐3‐2007 9‐5‐2023 57   2007 2023
Delta Hydrocarbons NL B.V. Q13a   30   28‐11‐2006 28‐12‐2021 231   2006 2021
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. D G14 & G17b   441   15‐12‐2006 14‐12‐2019 248   2006 2019
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. G17a   237   19‐7‐2006 14‐12‐2019 143   2006 2019
Grove Energy Ltd. P08a   26   21‐10‐2006 1‐12‐2021 214   2006 2021
Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A12a   195   1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129   2005 2025
Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A12d   33   1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129   2005 2025
Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A18a   229   1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129   2005 2025
Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A18c   47   1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 125   2005 2025
Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. B10c & B13a   252   1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129   2005 2025
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. K03c   32   26‐11‐2005 6‐1‐2021 233   2005 2021
Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V. P10a   5   31‐5‐2005 11‐7‐2020 102   2005 2020

Origin
Exploration Licenses recent changes
Dutch Continental Shelf (offshore)
Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2 In werking Einde
Staats
courant Opm. Jaar start Jaar Stop
Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V Q10b   367   6‐8‐2008 8‐8‐2011 155   2008 2011
Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q13b‐diep   369   23‐12‐2008 30‐4‐2013 2009‐5   2008 2013
Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q16b   80   25‐6‐2008 5‐8‐2013 122   2008 2013
Delta Hydrocarbons NL B.V. Q13b‐ondiep   369   23‐12‐2008 30‐4‐2013 2009‐5   2008 2013
Elko Energy B.V. P02   416   22‐2‐2008 3‐4‐2014 42   2008 2014
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V E17c   290   22‐2‐2008 3‐4‐2012 42   2008 2012
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. G10   397   17‐6‐2008 28‐7‐2012 115   2008 2012
Smart Energy Solutions B.V Q07   419   16‐1‐2008 26‐2‐2012 13   2008 2012
Smart Energy Solutions B.V. Q10a   53   6‐8‐2008 8‐8‐2011 155   2008 2011
Tullow Netherlands B.V. D09   149   15‐1‐2008 25‐2‐2014 11   2008 2014
Tullow Netherlands B.V. E10   401   16‐1‐2008 26‐2‐2012 13   2008 2012
Tullow Netherlands B.V. E14   403   15‐1‐2008 25‐2‐2012 12   2008 2012
Tullow Netherlands B.V. E15c   343   22‐4‐2008 2‐6‐2012 78   2008 2012
Tullow Netherlands B.V. E18b   192   11‐1‐2008 21‐2‐2012 10   2008 2012
Wintershall Noordzee B.V. D18b   139   26‐1‐2008 7‐3‐2012 20   2008 2012
Wintershall Noordzee B.V. P03   416   14‐10‐2008 24‐11‐2012 202   2008 2012
Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V. M08a   264   22‐12‐2007 20‐8‐2011 2008‐1   2007 2011
Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V. M10 & M11   250   28‐7‐2007 10‐9‐2011 152   2007 2011
Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q11   162   23‐3‐2007 3‐5‐2011 60   2007 2011
Elko Energy B.V P01   209   28‐6‐2007 8‐8‐2013 128   2007 2013
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E13b   169   22‐12‐2007 18‐9‐2011 2008‐9   2007 2011
GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E16b   375   29‐6‐2007 9‐8‐2011 128   2007 2011
Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V. P08c   210   6‐1‐2007 16‐2‐2013 7   2007 2013
Tullow Netherlands B.V. E13a   234   22‐12‐2007 18‐9‐2011 2008‐9   2007 2011
Wintershall Noordzee B.V. P08b   209   6‐1‐2007 16‐2‐2013 7   2007 2013
Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V. P04   170   11‐10‐2006 22‐11‐2010 200   2006 2010
Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. L16b   176   2‐2‐2006 16‐3‐2010 38   2006 2010
Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q14   25   3‐10‐2006 14‐11‐2010 196   2006 2010
Grove Energy Ltd F14   403   11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200   2006 2010
Grove Energy Ltd. F18   404   11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200   2006 2010
Grove Energy Ltd. L01b   339   11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200   2006 2010
RWE Dea AG B14   198   17‐11‐2006 28‐12‐2009 232   2006 2009
Total E&P Nederland B.V. L03   406   11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200   2006 2010
Wintershall Noordzee B.V. P05   417   11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2013 200   2006 2013
Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A12b & B10a   79   16‐4‐2005 77   wva   2005

Origin
Company shortlist Dutch sector
No Operator
1 CIRRUS
2 Smart Energy Solutions
3 Energy06 Investments B.V.
4 TAQA Offshore B.V.
5 Delta Hydrocarbons NL B.V.
6 Elko Energy B.V.
7 Oyster Energy B.V.
8 GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V.
9 Lundin Netherlands B.V
10 Tullow Netherlands B.V.
11 Wintershall Noordzee B.V.
12 Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V.
13 Elko Energy B.V.
14 Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V.
15 Grove Energy Ltd.
16 Island Netherlands B.V.

Origin
Investment opportunities outside Netherlands
Project Area PSC holder Company seat Date Source
Blakeney UKCS Wintershall UK/Germany Feb 2010 Oilvoice
Orlando UKCS Wintershall UK/Germany Feb 2010 Oilvoice
Volante UKCS Wintershall UK/Germany Feb 2010 Oilvoice
Malvolio UKCS Hannu Feb 2010 Oilvoice
Monkwell UKCS Dana Petroleum UK Jan 2010 Oilvoice
Acle UKCS Swift Exploration Dec 2009 Oilvoice
Cosmos South Tunisia Storm Venture Canada Feb 2010 Contact
Seyun‐Masila Yemen Dove Energy Feb 2010 Oilvoice
Tolmount UKCS Dana Petroleum UK Dec 2009 Oilvoice
Cairngorm UKCS Strategic Energy Nov 2009 Oilvoice

Origin
Wintershall Announces Three North Sea Farm
Out Opportunities
» Orlando
Wintershall (E&P) Limited is offering to divest all or part of it's 35% working interest in licence P1606. Partners are MPX North Sea Ltd.
(65%, operator) and Sorgenia E&P Ltd. (Sorgenia will be assigned a 35% interest from MPX). The offer provides interested parties the
opportunity to participate in appraisal drilling and development of the Orlando Discovery (block 3/3b) in Q3/Q4 2010, and exploring
additional potential within the licence. First oil from Orlando is anticipated for 2011.
The licence is a UKCS 25th round award, with an initial term of four years as from 12th February 2009.The work programme includes
reprocessing of 200kms2 3D seismic (fulfilled) and drilling of a firm well to a minimum depth of 3580m (TVD) to appraise the Orlando
Discovery. The discovery has been re‐mapped and appraised and static and dynamic sub‐surface modelling confirms economic oil
quantities within the structure. Drilling of the appraisal/development well (scheduled for 2010) will fulfil the outstanding work
obligation on licence p1606. Oil offtake via the Ninian Field is the preferred option, evaluation of rig market and drilling services are
underway.
» Blakeney
Wintershall (E&P) Limited is proposing to divest part of it's 100% working interest in licences p1562 and p1619, which contain blocks
21/21, 21/22 and 21/27b respectively. The offer provides interested parties the opportunity to participate in drilling and evaluation of
the Blakeney prospect (block 21/27b) in Q2/Q3 2010 and ensuing activity in both licences.
The licences are UKCS 25th round awards, with an initial term of four years as from February 2009. The first part of the obligatory work
programme, which includes the purchase and reprocessing of 223km2 3‐D seismic data has been completed, the data interpreted and
evaluated. This work has confirmed and further de‐risked the Blakeney prospect such that the work programme can proceed with the
drilling of an exploration well to the Eocene Tay sandstone reservoir objective. The drilling of Blakeney will fulfil the outstanding work
obligation on licence p1619. Wintershall has acquired a site survey, selected a drilling location and has contracted the well management
services of SPD to plan well operations.
» Volante
Wintershall (E&P) Limited offers the opportunity to acquire c. 20% interest in UKCS License P.1303, comprising Blocks 20/2b and 20/3d,
in return for participating in drilling the economically attractive Volante prospect in Q3 2010.
License P.1303 was originally awarded to BG during the 23rd License Round with a license term of 4 years. Part I of the Work Program
(purchase 124 km2 of 3D seismic, rock physics study) has been completed. Part II of the Work Program (drill a well 150 ft below the
BCU) is outstanding.
Wintershall has recently completed the acquisition of the license, and subsequently farmed out 45%. A further c. 20% interest is now
available for interested parties. License extension to end 2010 has been granted by the DECC, allowing operator Wintershall and its
partners to drill an exploration well in Q3 2010.

Origin
Hannu North Sea Appraisal Opportunity; The
Malvolio Prospect UKCS Viking Graben
» Hannu North Sea Limited is seeking a partner(s) to farm in to the Malvolio Prospect in the
UKCS Viking Graben.
» Malvolio, located in UKCS Viking Graben Block 3/23b is a Paleocene appraisal opportunity in
an Upper Montrose Group sand.
» Well 3/23b‐3 drilled by Chevron in 1988 on 2D seismic data defines Malvolio's northern pinch
out edge. It encountered live oil over the shakers and has a resistivity anomaly at the target
horizon significantly reducing risk on Malvolio.
» The stratigraphic trap has been defined through integration of the simultaneous inversion
model, time and depth mapping, geobody extraction from seismic frequency decomposition
and AI/EI modelling. This geophysical work, allied with the petrophysical analysis of 3/23b‐3
and surrounding wells, suggests p50 reserves of 26mmbbls and upside (p90) reserves of
106mmbbls. The main risk is determined to be trap presence (70%) with reservoir (80%) and
charge (80%) defining a geological chance factor of 45%.
» Well costs are estimated at £9mm gross dry hole and £13.3mm tested. In the event of
success, development would proceed via a small FPSO.
» Hannu North Sea Limited is a 100% owned subsidiary of MPX Energy Limited.

Origin
Monkwell Field Appraisal Opportunity from
Dana Petroleum: Block 42/29a
» Dana offer an equity share in the Monkwell Field sub‐area of block 42/29a, in the Southern
North Sea, in exchange for a negotiable carry of its share of well costs to appraise the north‐
western upside of the Monkwell field.
» A new PreSDM 3D dataset has been generated over the block to aid in trap definition.
» Monkwell is a Lower Leman Sandstone gas field with mean reserves of 58bcf (1 well
development), with upside of 120bcf (3 well development).
» An appraisal well will be drilled in Q2, 2010 and be suspended as a producer if successful
(£11.0MM dry hole cost).
» Host modification concept studies for BP's Cleeton platform are complete and a tariff for gas
handling agreed.

Origin
Swift Exploration Announces UK Southern
North Sea Farm-in Opportunity
» Swift Exploration Ltd is seeking a partner(s) to farm in to the Acle gas prospect ‐ UKCS
Southern North Sea Licence P.1715 Block 49/29d
» Block 49/29d contains the Acle gas prospect at the Rotliegendes Sand level The Prospect is
ready for drilling and has the potential for early production via a number of different export
routes offering an very short tie back.
» The Acle prospect is a simple four way dip and up thrown fault closed structure mapped at
Rotliegendes sand level. The local well control demonstrates excellent reservoir potential and
top seal. It is in the centre of the Rotliegendes gas fairway where all the adjacent structural
closures contain producing fields. It is clearly imaged on 3D seismic and is supported by a
DHI.
» The prospect has 1,300 acres of closure with 370ft of maximum structural relief; and the
lowest closing contour is 8210 ft ss. The GIIP for the Acle prospect is 66 to 258 bcf with
recoverable reserves of 49 to 194 bcf.
» Risk analysis suggests that probability of finding hydrocarbons are better than 50%. Local
fields are being produced with reserves of 35bcf and indicate that a discovery at Acle is likely
to provide a favourable commercial opportunity.

Origin
Storm Ventures Canada – COSMOS field
Tunesia investment opportunity
» FPSO devt of 25mm bbl ooip Cosmos Main and 15mm bbl ooip Cosmos Terraces;
» ‘Fit for purpose’ turret moored 450,000 bbl FPSO for small fields;
» LOI stage with experienced FPSO contractor (SVI 20% equity);
» Development capital est. $150mm, IP15,000bopd;
» 8.9mm bbls rec. 3p; (5.9mm bbls net) from Cosmos Main;
» Follow up opportunities on fallow discoveries at Yasmin (15‐20mm boip) and Tazerka (90mm
boip) which require appraisal;
» First ‘E’ well mid 2009;
» SVI 66% operated interest requires $75‐95mm of new finance at target 50/50 debt/equity
and LOC support for conversion;$30mm pre IPO private round to kick off development and
FPSO;

Origin
Tolmount Exploration Opportunity from Dana
Petroleum: Blocks 42/28d & 29b
» Dana Petroleum is offering a 35% equity share in two part blocks containing six Rotliegend
prospects and one gas discovery (Mongour), in exchange for a negotiable carry of Dana well
costs in testing the Tolmount prospect.
» Blocks 42/28d & 29b lie in the Southern North Sea, at the north‐western end of the Sole Pit
Trough, in the prolific Rotliegend play fairway.
» Tolmount is a simple structural closure in both time and depth, mapped at Top Rotliegend
level, with 185m of vertical relief.
» A new PreSDM 3D dataset has been generated over the blocks to aid trap definition.
» Tolmount has mean reserves of 102bcf with an upside of 201bcf (COS: 0.53).The prospect will
be drilled in Q3, 2010 (£12.1MM dry hole cost)

Origin
Stratic Energy Farm-in Opportunity: Cairngorm,
Licences P1214, P1299, Blocks 16/2b, 16/3d
» Stratic Energy is offering an incoming party a 50% interest in licences P1214 (block 16/2b)
and P1299 (block 16/3d) by funding a share of a firm appraisal well in Q2/Q3 2010. These
blocks contain the Cairngorm granite accumulation, tested by the 16/3a‐11z discovery well
which flowed 40 degree API oil at rates in excess of 2000 bopd. The Cairngorm accumulation
is a fractured granite play with upside reserves up to 28mmbls. The fractured granite
reservoir at Cairngorm has the ability to flow at rates up to 20,000 bopd which means that
even low recoverable volumes are of high value. Dry hole costs are estimated at £10mm to a
TD of 7960ft at a rig rate of $230,000 per day for a 34 day well including open hole logging.

Origin
Macro Economic Outlook
» 420 ontdekte aardgasvelden
» Het kleineveldenbeleid heeft ertoe geleid dat er in Nederland honderden kleine gasvelden
zijn gevonden. Vooral in de Noordzee en de noordelijke provincies. Per 1 januari 2009 kende
Nederland 420 ontdekte aardgasvelden:
» 234 aardgasvelden zijn ontwikkeld, waarvan er 230 in productie zijn en 4 worden gebruikt
voor opslag
» 125 aardgasvelden zijn niet ontwikkeld: 53 daarvan worden waarschijnlijk binnen 5 jaar in
productie genomen, van de overige 72 is het onzeker of ze ontwikkeld worden
» bij 61 aardgasvelden is de productie (tijdelijk) gestaakt.

Origin
24
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
USD/barrel
Brent oil
Brent forward Feb '07
The day after tomorrow
Long term macro trend of increased energy need still intact
Population growth and increased living standard increases demand for
oil
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
10
20
30
40
50
60
Production
Production 2‐4 X discoveries
Tupi
discovery
Source: IHS Energy, IEA, Conoco Philips; Bloomberg, Arctic Securities Equity Research
Closing the gap between supply and demand is becoming difficult
Production has exceeded hydrocarbon additions since 1980s Fwd oil price still at historic high levels
0
5
10
15
20
25 Oil demand per capita (barrels per year) Global oil demand and supply 2005‐2030e (mill bbl/day)
Oil discoveries and ‐production 1930‐2050 (bln bbls) Historic oil price and current oil price forward curve
(Oil price USD / bbl)
The macro picture supports a strong offshore industry in many years to come.

Origin
Regulatory Framework
» EZ: “Er komt een financiële stimulans om de winning van gas uit marginale gasvelden op de
Noordzee te bevorderen. Dit schrijft minister Maria van der Hoeven van Economische Zaken
in een brief aan de Tweede Kamer. Mijnbouwbedrijven mogen éénmalig in het jaar waarin zij
investeren in bedrijfsmiddelen voor exploratie of exploitatie van marginale gasvelden op de
Noordzee naast hun normale afschrijving 25 procent van de kapitaalkosten van in mindering
mogen brengen op het bedrijfsresultaat waarover zij winstaandeel verschuldigd zijn. De
verwachting is dat met behulp van deze maatregel zo'n 30 gasvoorkomens onder de
Noordzee in gebruik zullen worden genomen, goed voor de winning van zo'n 20 miljard
kubieke meter aardgas extra.
Er zijn in de afgelopen jaren al diverse middelen ingezet om de mijnbouwactiviteiten in kleine
velden te stimuleren. Zo worden "slapende" vergunningen aangepakt door
vergunninghouders aan te spreken op hun activiteitenniveau. Een ingediend wetsvoorstel tot
wijziging van de Mijnbouwwet en een nog met de mijnbouwindustrie af te sluiten convenant
hebben ook als doel het actief benutten van verleende vergunningen voor opsporing en
winning. Achtergrond van al deze maatregelen en activiteiten is de noodzaak om in de
komende tien tot vijftien jaar zoveel mogelijk kleine offshore gasvelden in productie te
brengen. De nu producerende velden op het Nederlandse continentale plat raken
uitgeproduceerd en de bestaande infrastructuur dreigt te worden ontmanteld. Zonder deze
infrastructuur is het waarschijnlijk dat marginale kleine velden niet meer worden benut.”

Origin
Combineer winning gas op Noordzee met
windenergie
» De financiële stimuleringsmaatregel die winning van aardgas in kleinere velden op de
Noordzee aantrekkelijk moet maken, zou alleen toegepast moeten worden als olie‐ en
gaswinning gecombineerd wordt met windenergie. NWEA pleit daarvoor in een brief aan de
minister van Economische Zaken.
» Met de brief reageert NWEA op een voorgenomen aanpassing van de Mijnbouwwet. De
Rijksoverheid wil het daarmee aantrekkelijker maken om aardgas te winnen uit 'marginale
velden'. Volgens NWEA biedt dat goede mogelijkheden om meervoudig ruimtegebruik en
samenwerking tussen de windenergiesector en de olie‐ en gassector te bevorderen. Daarom
zou in elk geval de geplande financiële stimuleringsmaatregel voor aardgas uit marginale
velden alleen toegestaan moeten worden als de winning gecombineerd wordt met
windenergie. Overigens sluit de NWEA‐brief aan bij wat eerder vanuit de CDA‐fractie in de
Tweede Kamer naar voren is gebracht.
» http://www.nwea.nl/nieuws/mijnbouwwet‐00230

Origin
Kleine velden beleid
» Kleine velden beleid:
Er zijn vele onderzoeken en boringen nodig om een gasveld (met kleine hoeveelheden
aardgas) te vinden. Daarnaast is het relatief duur om een gasveld in productie te brengen,
zeker op zee. Daarom heeft de rijksoverheid in 1974 het kleine veldenbeleid geïntroduceerd.
In de Gaswet is vastgelegd dat gasproducenten de mogelijkheid hebben het door hun
gewonnen gas in een bepaald tempo tegen redelijke voorwaarden en marktconforme
vergoedingen te verkopen aan GasTerra (afzetgarantie). Bovendien is Gas Transport Services
(GTS) verplicht het gas uit kleine velden in te nemen en te transporteren (innameplicht).
Hiermee wordt tevens bereikt dat de balansfunctie van het Groningenveld zolang als mogelijk
in stand wordt gehouden.

Origin
Wetsvoorstel Q1 2008
» De ministerraad heeft op voorstel van minister Van der Hoeven van Economische Zaken ingestemd
met een wijziging van de Mijnbouwwet. Het wetsvoorstel heeft als doel het bevorderen van een
actieve benutting van vergunningen voor gebruik van de Nederlandse ondergrond voor de
opsporing en winning van delfstoffen en de ondergrondse opslag van aardgas en CO2.
» Maximale productie van de nog aanwezige (gas)reserves is van belang voor de
voorzieningszekerheid en de inkomsten van de staat uit gaswinning. Ondergrondse opslag stelt
marktpartijen in staat om in een toekomst, waarin Nederland netto gasimporteur gaat worden,
gasvraag en ‐aanbod flexibel op elkaar af te stemmen. Dit past in de ambitie van Nederland als
aardgasrotonde voor Noordwest‐Europa. Daarnaast is het van belang lege gasvelden te kunnen
gebruiken voor de opslag van CO2 in het kader van de vergaande plannen voor reductie van CO2‐
emissies.
» Het wetsvoorstel geeft de minister van Economische Zaken de bevoegdheid om delen van
vergunningsgebieden ter beschikking te stellen aan derden voor opsporing, winning of opslag. Het
gaat dan om gebieden waar de vergunninghouder zelf, ook na daartoe te zijn aangemaand, geen
relevante activiteiten onderneemt. Hiermee wordt bewerkstelligd dat een niet‐actieve
vergunninghouder produceerbare of nog te exploreren gasvelden in zijn vergunningsgebied
nodeloos lang bezet houdt. Overigens heeft overleg met individuele vergunninghouders de
afgelopen jaren al vruchten afgeworpen in de vorm van hernieuwde activiteiten, het teruggeven
van vergunningen en overdracht van delen van vergunningen aan derden.

Origin
Stimuleringsmaatregel kleine aardgasvelden
» De platforms en gasleidingen (bestaande gasinfrastructuur) in zee zullen worden verwijderd
zodra het aanwezige aardgas is gewonnen. Vandaar dat de overheid wil dat er tot die tijd
zoveel mogelijk gasvelden in zee worden opgespoord, ontwikkeld en aangesloten op de
bestaande infrastructuur. Anders blijven deze gasvelden onbenut. Hiervoor is een financiële
stimuleringsmaatregel opgenomen in de gewijzigde Mijnbouwwet die momenteel door de
Europese Commissie wordt getoetst op staatssteunaspecten. Als de Europese Commissie
akkoord gaat mogen gasproducenten van marginale (onvoldoende rendabele) gasvelden op
zee 25% van hun investeringskosten aftrekken van het bedrijfsresultaat waarover zij
winstaandeel aan de Staat moeten betalen. De criteria voor marginale velden zullen worden
vastgelegd in een ministeriële regeling van de Minister van Economische Zaken.
» Een convenant met mijnbouwondernemingen die actief zijn op het continentaal plat moet
ertoe leiden dat de minister van Economische Zaken geen gebruik hoeft te maken van de
bevoegdheid tot gebiedsverkleining. Via deze bevoegdheid kan de minister het gebied
waarop de vergunning van toepassing is, maar waar geen activiteiten zijn of zullen worden
verricht, verkleinen zodat het gebied beschikbaar kan komen voor andere partijen. De
bevoegdheid tot gebiedsverkleining voor zowel onshore als offshore gebieden is opgenomen
in de gewijzigde Mijnbouwwet. Deze maatregel is op 1 januari 2010 in werking getreden. Het
convenant zal in werking treden zodra de financiële stimuleringsmaatregel in werking treedt.
» http://wetten.overheid.nl/BWBR0014168/geldigheidsdatum_15‐01‐2010

Origin
Investment Risks
Following risk factors should be considered making an investment decision in oil and gas:
» Commodity price fluctuations for oil and gas can result in operating and financial performance
different from our forecast. Commodities are typically priced in US dollar terms, thus exchange
rates for non‐US based companies can result in realized prices significantly different than the US
benchmark;
» Third‐party credit risk exposes producer cash flow to adverse cash flow impacts in the event
counterparties fail to meet contractual obligations;
» Future financial performance is dependent on companies’ ability to replace reserves via exploration
and production and via integrating acquisitions;
» Reliance on third‐party operators and/or processing capacity may create delays and cost over‐runs.
» Actual production and cash flow achieved by a producer could be materially different than third
party engineering and/or forecasts;
» Geologic and reservoir characteristics vary by play and results in a wide range of risk; thus, there is
no certainty past drilling success rates will be replicated in the future;
» Companies are exposed to geopolitical risks, including changes to regulatory and fiscal policy which
may alter expected economic returns;
» Increased environmental regulation may potentially impact timelines and costs for projects.
» At any given time a producer may see limited access to capital resulting in higher debt levels and/or
reduced capital spending programs.

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2010 | © Origin Business Engineering B.V.
Origin

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