1) Natural sciences have allowed humans to achieve great things through scientific experimentation and knowledge, but science also has limitations and weaknesses as scientific beliefs change over time. 2) Testing hypotheses in science can be challenging due to confirmation bias, background assumptions that may be incorrect, and the possibility that multiple hypotheses could explain the same data. 3) In the human sciences, directly observing thoughts is not possible, questions can be biased, and the observer effect may alter the behavior of those being studied. Predicting human behavior is difficult due to free will, though group trends can be predicted with probabilities through the law of large numbers.

1. Ben Smith
Senior Seminar p.4
December 5, 2011
Natural and Human Sciences
Natural Sciences:
Science has allowed humans to achieve a number of great things
Many people see the sciences as the dominant cognitive paradigm or model of knowledge
o Some people also argue that science is only “road to knowledge” and that if it cannot be
proven scientifically, then you can’t claim to know it
Although science has been successful, humans should not believe everything that has been said
to have been “proved by science” because it has its weaknesses and limitations
o Scientific beliefs change over time, so “we might wonder how far the natural sciences
really do give us certainty”
Many people have begun to question the benefits of science
o A “backlash against ‘science worship’”
 Some people even believe that scientists are playing god and messing with
things they don’t understand such as nuclear war or cloning
Do the benefits outweigh the costs of scientific experimentations?
The Scientific Method:
o To distinguish between science and non-science, there is a specific method
 This view suggests that science is not a fixed body of knowledge, but more of a
way of thinking of the world
o Inductivism:
 Otherwise known as the scientific method
 Five key steps
Observation
Hypothesis
Experiment
Law
Theory
 Scientists begin by observing and classifying relevant data, then look for a
pattern and formulate a hypothesis
 Then make a prediction which can be tested through experimentation
Controllability
o Change one variable at a time to observe its affects
Measurability
o Measure relevant variables to add precision and objectivity
Repeatability
o Able to be repeated by others to confirm the results
 If the results confirm the hypothesis, then it is perhaps a scientific law

2.  After that, a theory can be applied to relate more than one law to another in
order to provide further research
 EX: The Copernican Revolution
The model of the solar system
 Important points:
Scientific progress need a background of careful observation
Technology can extend our powers of observation making it easier to
test new ideas
Imagination plays an important role in the development of new ideas
Mathematics also plays a central role in the development of scientific
ideas
Many scientific discoveries are counterintuitive
Problems With Observation:
o Science is based on straightforward observation, but observation is not straightforward
 Relevance
We always begin with an idea of what is relevant or not
o If we didn’t, we would drown in a flood of observations
However, we may overlook an important factor if we have closed minds
to begin with
 Expectations
Our expectations can influence what we see
 Expert Seeing
Using scientific devices to make observations complicates things
o Sometimes the instruments are not exact or made well
 The Observer Effect
The act of observation can sometimes affect what we observe
o Measuring the human affect with the actual thing you are
measuring
Testing Hypotheses
o Confirmation Bias
 People tend to look for evidence that confirms their beliefs and overlook
evidence against them
A good scientist is aware of confirmation bias and actively seeks to
combat it
 Scientists sometimes take only the data that follows their hypothesis and
exclude the data that refutes it
o Background Assumptions
 We make background assumptions when testing a hypothesis
Some could be wrong
Ex: Copernicus and the parallax
o Many Different Hypotheses

3.  It is possible to prove that a number of hypotheses could fit a certain set of
data, therefore it is impossible to prove that any are true
The Principle of Simplicity states that for two competing arguments, the
more simple one is usually preferred
Science and Society
o Neither inductivism nor falsificationism can give an adequate account of the nature of
science
 A paradigm is an overarching theory shared by a community of scientists in
order to make sense of some aspect of reality
o Normal Science
 Popper vs. Kuhn
 Many scientists were solving problems within a paradigm, while others were
taking the paradigm for granted
Science cannot progress if the scientists are always questioning their
assumption
o Scientific Revolutions
 Takes place when scientists become unsatisfied with the prevailing paradigm
and put forward a completely new way of looking at things
If the new ideas are successful, then they become the new paradigm
and then another period of normal science occurs
 If the current paradigm can resolve widespread questions, then a revolution is
not likely, however if the amount of widespread questions grows, then it is likely
that a new paradigm will be found to answer most of those questions
o How Rational is Science?
 During periods of scientific crisis, there is no definite point at which to say that it
is irrational or unscientific to adhere to the old paradigm
 Kuhn compared switching paradigms to converting religions – which can be
influenced by non-scientific factors such as personal ambition and social
pressure
 The social context plays a big role in the development of science and may
influence what scientists choose to research
o Assessment of Kuhn’s Position
 Normal Science
There is some truth in Kuhn’s theory that most scientists work within
the current paradigm
o However, in order to make proper investigations and know as
much as we can about the world, we must question our
assumptions from time to time
 Scientific Revolutions
Even though it may seem like it, one new paradigm does not completely
take over and make the other one disappear.

4. it is reasonable to assume that science will progress in a cumulative way
in the future
 Choosing Between Rival Paradigms
Kuhn claims that there is no way to decide between rival paradigms,
that a scientists beliefs will be influenced by their society
Human Sciences:
Human sciences are an attempt to reduce the mystery of the human body by studying human
behavior in a systematic way
It is hard to say that we can be studied purely through science, because we are more than just
animals or a bunch of chemicals – we are self conscious animals
Humans also have the ability to use language, reason, free-will, and creativity
o Observation
Although behavior can be observed, peoples minds cannot be
o May be able to make an educated guess, but never entirely sure
 Loaded Questions
It isn’t easy to frame questions in a unbiased way
There is often a difference between what people say they would do in a
hypothetical situation and what they actually do in reality
 The Observer Effect
The effect which occurs when the person being observed is conscious
that they are being observed and may change their behavior as a result
A possible fix for the observer effect is to ‘go native’ or spend an
extended period of time observing the subject so that they don’t mind
the presence and act normally
Another fix may be to use hidden cameras, but that raises ethical
questions
Psychology
o The two groups of students performed differently based on the
teachers expectations
Economics
o If people expect prices to rise, they will buy now and try to sell
later, but if they expect prices to fall, they will sell now and try
to buy later. When people expect the market to rise, it will, and
when people expect the market to fall, it will
Anthropology
o If a voodoo sorcerer casts a death spell on a person in his tribe,
then they will die not from the ‘spell’, but from their
expectations that the spell will kill them, altering they lifestyle
o Laws
The main goal of science is to develop laws and theories in order to
explain the phenomena that it studies – however, the human sciences

5. believe in human free-will, which seems to conflict with the idea that
there are laws for human behavior
 The Law of Large Numbers
Although human behavior might be unpredictable, we can make
supprisingly accurate predictions about short term large scale things
The Law of Large Numbers says that in a large population, random
variations tend to cancel out
Human nature is can be predicted with probabilities because of large
group measurement
 Trends and Laws
The human sciences do not have a very good record of predictions
A trend only shows the direction in which a variable is moving
o Phillips curve – post hoc ergo propter hoc
 The Complexity of Real World Situations
Another problem in dealing with human sciences laws is the complexity
of the problems