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   www.greenpacket.com




   WHITEPAPER
Abstract
The advancement and growth of the Internet is causing network congestions across the globe due
to heavy data consumption required by its applications. However, with different penetration levels
and usage patterns, there is a contrast for network congestion in developed and emerging
countries.


The network congestion issue in developed nations is more acute although current network
technologies are advanced but yet they are insufficient to cope with data requirements. The only way
forward is to continue upgrading to faster networks with higher capacity, but this option requires
heavy investment in terms of time, effort and money. What then is a more cost-effective alternative?


This paper studies Hong Kong*, a densely populated country with one of the world’s fastest growing
telecoms sector and a victim of network congestion. Greenpacket presents a case study on how a
cellular operator can battle network congestion without burning a hole in the pocket.


*Hong Kong is selected as it is a small country with a huge population and easily comparable to any other major city in
the world. The objective here is to help readers understand that network congestion as experienced by Hong Kong and
proposed solution can be applied to most dense areas around the world.




WHITEPAPER
Contents
Network Congestion Phenomenon: Developed vs. Emerging Markets   01
Getting to Know Hong Kong’s Telecoms Market                     04
Issues Facing Hong Kong’s Mobile Broadband Landscape            08
Case Study – Operator X, Hong Kong (HSPA+ Operator)             12
Solve Your Network Congestion Woes Cost-Effectively Today!      16




WHITEPAPER
Network Congestion Phenomenon: Developed vs. Emerging
Markets
Across the globe, escalating data traffic is leading to network congestion, a phenomenon that the telecommunications
industry dreads. However, developed and emerging markets undergo network congestion which is different in nature
due to the disparity in broadband penetration levels which leads to dissimilar usage patterns (user perspective) and
business models (operator perspective). Generally, broadband penetration exceeds 35% in developed markets but
barely touches 10% in most emerging markets.


Figure 1 maps the broadband penetration rates of developed and emerging markets worldwide. Developed nations have
a higher broadband penetration rate compared to emerging nations.

                                                                   Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation
                                                                   and Development (OECD), Internet World Stats,
                                                                   December 2008 – December 2009




                          Developed Markets                             Emerging Markets




                                                                                                  Developed market
                                                                                                  Emerging market
                                                                                                  (more developed)
                                                                                                  Emerging market
                                                                                                  (least developed)




                                                                   Image Source: Alex Covarrubias through Wikipedia

Figure 1: Economic Map of the World: Emerging Markets and Developed Markets




                                                                                                                01
WHITEPAPER
Causes of Network Congestion

In Greenpacket’s earlier whitepaper Operators Can Save $14 Million Yearly Through Data Offloading (Note: You will need
to complete a form to download the whitepaper), we mentioned that congestion occurs when throughput supply is lower
than demand. This can be the result of too many users within a site or when the throughput level is too low.


Typically, networks in emerging countries have low throughput levels such as 3.6Mbps or 1.8Mbps, in contrast to
developed countries with 14.4Mbps networks and above. This condition contributes to network congestion in emerging
countries.


Figure 2 compares developed and emerging countries that have approximately the same build up area. As such, it can
be assumed that almost equal number of network sites is required to provide coverage. Many operators in emerging
countries support the same/more subscribers on networks with lower data rates. This situation leads to network
congestion.


For example, let’s compare Japan and Philippines. Smart (PLDT) serves 38 million subscribers on a 2.0Mbps network,
as opposed to SoftBank Mobile which caters for only 21 million subscribers on a 7.2Mbps network.

             Country       Economic        Area           HSDPA              Supported             Remarks
                           Status          (in km2)       Data Rate          Subscribers

             Czech         Developed       78,866         14.4Mbps           2.9 million           Both operators support
                                                                                                   the same number of
 Example A




             Republic
                                                                                                   subscribers but
                                                                                                   T-Hrvatski Telekom has a
             Croatia       Emerging        56,594         7.2Mbps            2.9 million           lower data rate. Hence,
                                                                                                   congestion occurs.

             Japan         Developed       377,835        7.2Mbps            21 million            Smart (PLDT) supports
 Example B




                                                                                                   more subscribers but its
                                                                                                   network has a much
                                                                                                   lower data rate against
             Philippines   Emerging        300,000        2.0Mbps            38 million            SoftBank Mobile’s data
                                                                                                   rate.

Source: GSMA, BMI
Figure 2: Operators in emerging countries support equal or more subscribers on networks with low throughput levels




On the other hand, in developed markets, users are more mature Internet users and therefore engage in heavy data
usage that demands higher bandwidth. The Internet is relied upon beyond information gathering and communications.
Instead, it is heavily used for entertainment, especially video content and applications. According to research firm
Sandvine, users in North America and Europe are the highest consumers of YouTube videos, as shown in Figure 3.




                                                                                                                      02
WHITEPAPER
1.4%
                                   4.6%




                                                                                 North America
                                                                                 Caribbean and Latin America
                                                     45.1%
                                                                                 Europe

                    46.8%                                                        Africa
                                                                                 Asia-Pacific




                                          2.1%




Source: Sandvine
Figure 3: YouTube minutes consumed by different regions worldwide




A Market Study – Hong Kong

All developed countries offer high speed broadband. Greenpacket has selected Hong Kong for a market study as this
country has soaring subscriber numbers within a small land area. Additionally, Hong Kong has one of the fastest growing
telecoms sector that is afflicted by network congestion. In this paper, we present a case study on how a cellular operator
facing network congestion benefits from an immediate, simple and cost-effective measure to combat the issue without
heavy investments in network upgrades.




                                                                                                                03
WHITEPAPER
Getting to Know Hong Kong’s Telecoms Market
Demographics & Economy

Hong Kong is situated on China’s southern coast
with a land mass of 1,085km2. With a population of
over 7.08 million (6,502 persons/km2), Hong Kong
is one of the most densely populated areas in the
world, in comparison to Netherlands for example,
which has a land mass of 45,526km2 and
population of 16.6 milion (399 persons/km2).


The density level of Hong Kong is so high that it
even exceeds the density level of some of the
world’s most populous cities such as London (4,863                                         Image source: Wikipedia
persons/km2), Bangkok (4,478 persons/km2) and                                              Figure 4: Map of Hong Kong
even Amsterdam (4,459 persons/km2)!


Hong Kong is also one of the world’s leading developed nations, holding a GDP per capita of USD 31,849 in 2008, which
is relatively higher compared to other countries (see Figure 5). One of the reasons for Hong Kong’s high GDP levels can
be associated with its high broadband penetration rate and vice versa.

                                      30%
                                                                                   Hong Kong

                                                         South Korea

                                      25%                                         Canada
                                                                                                                                          Switzerland



                                      20%                                                        Belgium
              Broadband Penetration




                                                                                                                France
                                                                                                                          USA
                                      15%
                                                                              Spain




                                      10%




                                            China                       Hungary
                                      5%        Brazil


                   Indonesia                                   Mexico                            UAE
                     Egypt
                                                            Russia       Saudi Arabia
                                        0
                                            0       South $10,000            $20,000              $30,000       $40,000         $50,000         $60,000
                                                    Africa
                                                                                               GDP per Capita


Source: Alcatel-Lucent, 2008
Figure 5: GDP vs. broadband penetration levels of selected countries from around the world



                                                                                                                                                          04
WHITEPAPER
Telecoms Background

Hong Kong has one of the most advanced and sophisticated telecommunications market in the world and this has been
one of the driving factors in shaping this country as a leading business and financial centre.


Hong Kong’s telecommunications sector has been liberalized to set a platform that is both pro-competition and
pro-consumer. This objective provides a fair playing ground in the telecoms market and ensures consumers receive
best-in-class services in terms of capacity, quality, coverage and speed. Office of the Telecommunications Authority
(OFTA) is the governing statutory body responsible for regulating the industry.


Strong governmental support, enormous connectivity infrastructure and geographical advantage of compact size have
led to Hong Kong’s successful Internet evolution. Figure 6 compares the broadband technology evolution of Hong Kong
and the United States. It is evident that Hong Kong has been almost at par with United States which illustrates the
former’s impressive growth in the Internet and broadband arena over the past two decades.

                                           2G                                                            3G                                  3.5G

                                                                                                                            HSUPA
 Hong Kong




                 GSM                              PCS                GPRS                                                                    HSPA+
                                                                                          WCDMA/                    HSDPA            CDMA
                                                 (GSM
                                                                                           EDGE                                      2000
                                                 1800)
                                                                                                                                    (EVDO)
 United States




                                      CDMA                                         UMTS/
                 GSM                   One                                                                                                   HSPA+
                                                                                   WCDMA                            HSUPA
                              PCS 1900
                                                                            GPRS           EDGE           HSDPA
                             (GSM 1900)


                 ‘93   ‘94      ‘95       ‘96     ‘97    ‘98   ‘99    ‘00    ‘01    ‘02     ‘03    ‘04        ‘05    ‘06     ‘07      ‘08    ‘09

Figure 6: Hong Kong and United State’s Internet and broadband evolution




Hong Kong’s Telecoms Market Today

Hong Kong is an extremely networked society gauging from its high infiltration rates from the broad telecoms
perspective, as shown in Figure 7.

         Telecoms Category                      Degree of Infiltration              % of Infiltration

         Fixed Line                             101.6 lines/household               102% (by population)

         Mobile                                 12.6 million subscribers            180%

         Broadband                              2.71 million subscribers            ~ 56% (by population)
                                                                                    82% (by household)

         IPTV                                   1.2 million subscribers             N/A
                                                                                    Among highest in the world for residential penetration

Figure 7: Hong Kong telecom sector’s infiltration rates




                                                                                                                                             05
WHITEPAPER
As far as broadband is concerned, the services are highly in use which explains Hong Kong’s high broadband
penetration rate. At 82%, Hong Kong is ranked among the top three markets with highest household broadband
penetration rate (Figure 8) and fastest average Internet connection speed (Figure 9).

                                                                               Markets with Highest Broadband Penetration of Households
                                                                                                         54%
                                               United States                                                                   77%

                                             United Kingdom                                                   58%
                                                                                                                             74%

                                                       Taiwan                                                 59%
                                                                                                                             74%
                                                                                                                       69%                                                   2007
                                                   Switzerland                                                                76%
                                                                                                                                            93%                              2012
                                                   South Korea                                                                                97%

                                                   Netherlands                                                                74%
                                                                                                                                    82%
                                                                                                                              76%
                                                   Hong Kong                                                                        81%
                                                                                                              58%
                                                       France                                                                73%
                                                                                                                     65%
                                                       Canada                                                                      79%
                                                                                                        52%
                                                      Australia                                                            72%

Source: Gartner, July 2008
Figure 8: Hong Kong is one of the top three markets with highest household broadband penetration rate




                                                            Worldwide Top 10 Countries Average Connection Speed (Mbps)
                                    14
  Average Connection Speed (Mbps)




                                             11.7
                                    12

                                    10
                                                            8.6
                                     8                                 7.6
                                                                                    7.2
                                                                                             6.2        6.1
                                     6                                                                                 5.3           5.2           5.2            5.1

                                     4                                                                                                                                   3.8


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Source: The State of Internet Q4 2009, Akamai
Figure 9: Hong Kong is ranked second for having the fastest average Internet connection speed in Q4 2009.




To date, Hong Kong has 14 fixed network operators (FNOs), five mobile network operators (MNOs) and nine mobile
virtual network operators (MVNOs). Such intense competition makes broadband services in this country very affordable.


The combination of high penetration rate and affordable pricing formed an ideal platform for IPTV services which



                                                                                                                                                                               06
hit 1.2 million subscribers as of December 2009, again one of the highest in the world.




WHITEPAPER
Aside from IPTV, Hong Kong has a strong network of WiFi hotspots – there were more than 8,900 public WiFi hotspots
as of March 2010 and growing.


An average Hong Kong Internet user spends more than 25 hours online per month, making it one of the most engaged
Internet markets globally. Online communications, entertainment and social networking take up the highest share of
minutes spent online (see Figure 10). Several interesting Internet usage behaviour includes the following:


• Instant messaging holds the highest share at 16% (October 2009), which is almost double the time spent by Asia
  Pacific region as a whole
• Entertainment is led by video-based applications led by YouTube and TVB.com
• Social networking is led by Facebook
• 5% of Internet minutes are spent on business and finance sites which reflect the country’s business and finance
  focused economy. This rate is more than double of Asia Pacific’s share of time for this category


                                  Hong Kong Online Activities (% Share of Minutes)



                                                        16%
                                                                                     Instant Mesenger
                                                                                     Netertainment
                                                                                     Social Networking

                                                                   11%               Games
                         45%                                                         Business/Finance
                                                                                     E-mail
                                                                                     Search/Navigation
                                                                   8%
                                                                                     News/Information
                                                                                     Technology
                                                              5%
                                                                                     Others
                                                        4%
                                        2% 2% 3%   4%




Source: Comscore Report, October 2009
Figure 10: Hong Kong’s Internet usage by minutes




                                                                                                         07
WHITEPAPER
Issues Facing Hong Kong’s Mobile Broadband Landscape
Cellular Networks Face Ceiling-level Data Usage

Data usage on Hong Kong’s cellular networks is at extremely high levels which explains the reason for network
congestion. How do we know this?


i) The number of cellular users in Hong Kong has reached 100% of active users (active users refer to population aged
   15 to 65 who are in employment or expected to enter employment). Figure 11 shows that the number of cellular
   subscribers (2.5G and 3G) slighly exceeds the total number of active users – this concludes that all active users in
   Hong Kong are enjoying Internet through their mobile broadband connections.

    Mobile subscribers (January 2010)                                   12,483, 989

    2.5G and 3G mobile subscribers (January 2010)                       5,275,365
                                                                                                    No. of cellular
                                                                                                    subscribers equal
    % of active users                                                   74.8%
                                                                                                    100% active
                                                                                                    users
    Total number of active users                                        5,206, 000

  Source: BMI, Q1 2010
  Figure 11: Cellular users vs. total number of active users




ii) Tremendous increase in data usage. Since the launch of HSDPA in 2006, subscriber count only increased 2.4 times
    but data consumption grew immensely by 80 times!

    Year       2.5G + 3G Customers             3G Customers    Mobile Data Usage (Mbytes)

    2009       5,000,264                       3,819,186       638,388, 712
                                                                                                     2.4 times
    2008       3,490,602                       2,812,002       133,145,730                           increase in
                                                                                                     subscriber count
    2007       2,947,378                       2,004,565       32,301,563                            but 80 times
                                                                                                     growth in data.
    2006       2,206,586                       1,331,651       9,076,723

    2005       1,848,254                       645,965         4,603,736

    2004       1,349,015                       N/A             2,330,444

    2003       729,554                         N/A             247,262

    2002       179,931                         N/A             42,029

  Figure 12: Number of customers and mobile data usage in Hong Kong from 2002 – 2009




                                                                                                              08
WHITEPAPER
Why is Hong Kong experiencing such a gigantic leap in data usage? Here are some reasons:


a. Affordable broadband rates – With the presence of 14 FNOs, five MNOs, nine MVNOs and hundreds of other
   licensed ISPs, healthy competition exists and keeps broadband rates very affordable for the man on the street. As
   such, almost the entire active population of Hong Kong is able to afford a broadband connection and use data
   applications. Data card plans in Hong Kong range from USD 24 to USD 49 which is lower compared to similar plans
   in United States which range from USD 30 to USD 60.


b. High usage of IPTV – Television is loved for its rich visual and audio entertainment qualities. Delivering these qualities
   over Internet is a definite data gobbler. Hong Kong has 1.2 million IPTV subscribers which are among the highest in
   the world.


c. High usage of smartphones – Hong Kong consumers lead smartphone usage globally. Almost half (48%) of
   consumers in Hong Kong own a smartphone, which is more than double the global rate of 23% as shown in Figure
   12. The smartphone is used to access Internet applications such as email, social networking and even blogging. In
   today’s world of content and applications, social networking is king. This is obvious in Hong Kong whereby 30% of
   smartphone users regularly update their social pages compared to 12% globally.

                                 Smartphone penetration is approaching majority levels
                                               % of mobile users with a Smartphone




                                             *Covers Australia,
                                               Japan, Korea,
                                          Hong Kong, Malaysia,
                                          Singapore and Taiwan.
                                                                            48
                                                                                                     40
                                                  27
                       23

                   Global 2010           Developed Asia* 2010        Hong Kong 2010            Hong Kong 2009



  Source: www.cellular-news.com
  Figure 13: Hong Kong’s smartphone penetration rate exceeds global and Asian levels




d. High Public Transport Travel – With the advantage of being geographically compact, Hong Kong has a highly
   developed transportation network. Over 90% of daily travels take place via public transport. This form of commutation
   gives subscribers time to enjoy Internet while on the go through their smartphones and other mobile devices.




Decreasing ARPU

Hong Kong’s telecommunications landscape undergoes intense competition which leads to price wars that sets the
ARPU on a downward scale. Figure 13 shows ARPU decreasing for several leading mobile network operators in Hong
Kong since 2007.




                                                                                                                    09
WHITEPAPER
Source: Business Monitor International (BMI), Q1 2010
Figure 14: Decreasing ARPU trend faced by operators in Hong Kong




Aside from the price war, the decline in ARPU (Figure 14) can also be attributed to the stronger prepaid growth than
postpaid (Figure 15). Although in the past, operators in Hong Kong received higher revenues through postpaid plans,
prepaid services are gaining popularity as subscribers are more conscious of their commmunication and connectivity
spend. Prepaid ARPU is undeniably much lower than postpaid. For example, in 2008, Hutchison’s postpaid ARPU was
almost nine times larger than prepaid ARPU1.




Source: Business Monitor International (BMI), Q1 2010
Figure 15: Hong Kong’s increasing prepaid subscriber base




1Ovum




                                                                                                           10
WHITEPAPER
Poor Indoor Coverage

Poor indoor coverage has always been a constant battle for wireless technologies. In high density countries like Hong
Kong and Singapore, more than 70% of traffic occurs indoor. Analysis Mason anticipates that by 2016, over 80% of
global wireless data traffic will be generated indoors. This concludes that indoor capacity demand is much higher and
operators must address this issue.


Operators currently face numerous complaints on bad indoor coverage from subscribers. In Japan alone, NTT Docomo
recorded that over 90% of complaints are due to poor indoor reception quality. It is important to understand that indoor
coverage is usually poor because wireless signals originate from base stations which are deployed outdoors. These
signals need to penetrate through building material (for example, glass or concrete) and experience radio wave
penetration loss of 6 – 13 dB or more which translates into throughput loss as well.


Though operators today employ inbuilding solutions to boost coverage, however, in the case of Hong Kong, due to its
complex morphology, these solutions are expensive to deploy.


Figure 16 gives an overview of typical throughput levels at three different locations from the base station – peak rate
(nearest to the base station), median users (mid way distance from base station) and cell edge. At each of this location,
throughput levels are lower indoor compared to outdoor.


                                                                                                        R8 Multicarrier


                                                                                                        Single Carrier
            42Mbps


                              36-40Mbps




                     21Mbps

                                     15-18Mbps


                                                     7.8Mbps
                                                                      5.2-6.8Mbps
                                                            3.8Mbps                         3Mbps
                                                                              2.8-1.8Mbps                     2-2.6Mbps
                                                                                                    1.5Mbps           0.8-1.2Mbps



               Outdoor           Indoor                  Outdoor         Indoor               Outdoor             Indoor
                         Peak Rate                             Median Users                          Cell Edge Users




Source: Modified from Qualcomm
Figure 16: Comparison of throughput levels indoors and outdoors




                                                                                                                           11
WHITEPAPER
Case Study – Operator X, Hong Kong (HSPA+ Operator)
Technical Background

There are four operators in Hong Kong and each has four frequency carriers for a total of 20MHz (three 5MHz bands and
one split 5MHz band). This frequency arrangement enables three 5MHz bands to be grouped.



      3G       3G       3G                                                                              Satellite Mobile
    Operator Operator Operator        3G Operator     3G Operator      3G Operator   3G Operator           Service
       2        3        1                1               2                3             4            (Exemption Order)


 1904.9   1909.9    1914.9   1919.9 1920.3      1935.1      1949.9   1950.1      1964.9      1979.7 1980         2010 MHz


          TDD Spectrum                                     FDD Spectrum

Figure 17: Frequency allocation across four Hong Kong operators




Among these four operators, Greenpacket has selected Operator X* for this case study. Operator X is Hong Kong’s
leading operator and the first to launch a HSPA+ 28.8Mbps. To deploy and operate a 28.8Mbps network, 5MHz
frequency band is sufficient for data while the remaining 15MHz is reserved for voice and/or mobile TV (R99/MBMS).

   Bandwidth                                 HSPA+ Data Rate                              LTE Data Rate

   5MHz                                      42Mbps                                       37Mbps

   10MHz                                     84Mbps                                       73Mbps

   20MHz                                     168Mbps                                      150Mbps

Figure 18: HSPA+ vs LTE data rates corresponding to different bandwidth levels




Since Operator X (and the other operators) are investing huge sums of money into HSPA+, it is necessary to assume that
they would most likely adopt the HSPA+ path in coming years which enables data rates of up to 168Mbps through four
frequency carriers (20MHz spectrum). These data rates are equivalent to that of LTE as shown in Figure 17.


*Name of this operator is withheld to protect its interests




Expected Network Cost by End 2010

Going along the path of HSPA+, how much would Operator X need to spend to maintain its network? For this indication,
Greenpacket has set certain assumptions and predictions based from our observation.




                                                                                                                      12
WHITEPAPER
Prediction # 1: Data Usage

Operator X’s data usage is at 152TB as at June 2010. Greenpacket assumes that Busy Hour (BH) rate is at 15% with a
throughput/user growth rate of 4.3 times on year to year basis.



Prediction # 2: Subscriber Growth by 2010

Based on a yearly (subscriber) growth rate of 15% (or 7.2% half year growth), Operator X will have 620,000 HSPA+
subscribers by the end of 2010, an increase from 575,000 subscribers as of June 2009.

                                                                  3G/HSPA+ Subs
  Total Mobile Subs
  @ June 2009               3G subs @       Growth                  June 2010       End of 2010      Additional Subs
                            June 2009       (GP assumption)         3G subs                          (Jun – Dec 2010)

  2,000,000                 500,000         15.0%                   575,000         620,000          45,000




Prediction # 3: Additional Coverage Required

As of June 2009, Operator X currently has 5,300 sectors (approximately 2,120 sites). For a more precise calculation, we
make reference to sectors (as opposed to sites). This is because in Hong Kong, networks are not necessarily configured
as 3 sectors per site. Due to the compact size of the country and limited space in between buildings, each site can be
configured from S1/1 to S2/2/2/2/2/2.


Based on the Predictions 1 and 2, to support an additional 45,000 from June – December 2010 (six months), Operator
X would need to install an additional 415 sectors. The total cost of ownership (TCO) to deploy these 415 sites is
estimated at approximately USD 24.4 million.



Expected Revenue

From the 45,000 additional subscribers Operator X expected to be acquired by end of 2010 at ARPU rate of
HKD200/month, Operator X will gain a total revenue of HKD108 million/year (USD13.8 million/year). The question now
is, is the expenditure of USD 24.4 million justified for an increase of 45,000 subscribers over a short period of six months?
How much will Operator X need to spend over the next three years to improve its infrastructure and support subscriber
growth? With ARPU’s declining rate versus large network upgrade costs, how will Operator X sustain in the long term?


From an ROI perspective, with the investment expenditure of USD 24.4 million for 415 sectors, Operator X faces an ROI
period of one year and nine months. This duration is based on the average growth pattern of subscribers. However, as
data usage per user continues to rise through the use of data intensive applications, Greenpacket believes that the ROI
on required infrastructure upgrades can extend to two or three years. This is a very risky approach as technologies evolve
at a fast pace and infrastructure normally changes every five years, for example the evolution of from
GSM-WCDMA-HSPA+ to LTE.




                                                                                                                   13
WHITEPAPER
Is There a Better Alternative?

As opposed to expensive and time consuming network upgrades, it would be more cost and time efficient for Operator
X to manage extra network workload by offloading to WiFi.


This is an ideal alternative for Operator X in view of the excellent network of WiFi hotspots available in Hong Kong. With
close to 9,0002 WiFi hotspots available, mathematically assuming, every km2 has an average of eight hotspots! By
partnering with these WiFi providers, Operator X can support its growing subscriber base with involving time, effort and
money on network upgrades. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, poor indoor reception is a major concern for mobile
broadband operators. This issue can only resolved through indoor solutions such as WiFi. Hence, aside from managing
data influx on their networks, WiFi help operators to improve indoor coverage remarkably.


Offloading data to WiFi hotzones3 is also an approach undertaken by AT&T, a leading mobile network operator in the
United States. AT&T began this project in May 2010 in New York City to supplement its mobile broadband in areas with
high 3G traffic and mobile data use. Customer usage and satisfaction levels have been extremely encouraging according
to Angie Wiskocil, Senior VP, AT&T WiFi Services. AT&T is in the midst of rolling out more WiFi hotzones to more cities in
United States.




Conclusion

In the age of growing intensive data usage, celullar operators in developed markets need an immediate and
cost-effective way to manage their networks. The proliferation of smartphones and decreasing ARPU levels further add
urgency to ensure network congestion does not pose a threat.


One of the solutions to prevent network congestion is by offloading data to alternative broadband networks, especially
WiFi. Aside from balancing network bandwidth, WiFi is a good indoor solution and provides a much better reception
compared to cellular networks.



Performance Comparison: 3G vs. WiFi

Rysavy Reseach and Quality in Motion conducted a metropolitan survey to gauge performance levels between 3G and
WiFi. WiFi provided better performance compared to 3G as shown in Figure 19.




2Office   of the Telecommunications Authority, Hong Kong
3Fierce   Mobile Content



                                                                                                                 14
WHITEPAPER
Test                                              T-Mobile HotSpot                  Verizon EVDO

  FTP download throughput, average of all           1,274kbps                         310kbps
  locations

  Highest FTP download speed                        1,396kbps                         528kbps

  Lowest FTP download speed                         548kbps                           51kbps

  FTP download failures                             1 in 18 tests (6% failure rate)   6 in 24 tests (25% failure rate)

  FTP download standard deviation across            348kbps                           162kbps
  all eight locations

  Throughput test, loaded network                   367kbps                           248kbps
  (4 simultaneous clients)

  FTP upload throughput, average of all             1,329kbps                         100kbps
  locations

  Test Webpage (ww.cnn.com) download                6 sec                             55 sec
  time, average across all locations

  Microsoft Outlook download time                   23 sec                            122 sec
  (3 megabytes), all locations

  Micosoft Outlook over VPN upload time             16 sec                            214 sec
  (8 megabytes), all locations

Figure 19: Performance comparison of WiFi (T-Mobile HotSpot) vs. 3G (Verizon EVDO)




                                                                                                                 15
WHITEPAPER
Solve Your Network Congestion Woes Cost-Effectively Today!
Greenpacket welcomes you to embark on the offloading journey today and enjoy tremendous cost savings on your
network operations. At Greenpacket, we understand the demands placed on Operators like you. That is why our
solutions are designed to give you the capacity to constantly deliver cutting-edge offerings without exhausting your
capital and operating expenditures.


With Greenpacket, limitless freedom begins now!




Free Consultation

If you would like a free consultation on how you can start saving network cost through data offloading, feel free to contact
us at marketing.gp@greenpacket.com kindly quote the reference code, WP0810DL when you contact us). As part of the
consultation, we will be happy to walk-through your network’s TCO and determine how much savings you would gain by
offloading data.




                                                                                                                  16
WHITEPAPER
References
1.   2009 Global Broadband Phenomena by Sandvine
2.   Hong Kong: The Facts – Telecommunications, Office of the Telecommunications Authority
3.   Wireless Network Assessment, EV-DO and Wi-Fi Hotspots by Rysavy Research & Quality in Motion (QIM)
4.   The importance of prepaid mobile increases in Hong Kong by Sherrie Huang, Ovum
5.   HSPA+ is here, what is next? by Qualcomm




                                                                                                          17
WHITEPAPER
About Green Packet
     Greenpacket is the international arm of the Green Packet Berhad group of companies which is listed on the Main Board
     of the Malaysian Bourse. Founded in San Francisco’s Silicon Valley in 2000 and now headquartered in Kuala Lumpur,
     Malaysia, Greenpacket has a presence in 9 countries and is continuously expanding to be near its customers and in
     readiness for new markets.


     We are a leading developer of Next Generation Mobile Broadband and Networking Solutions for Telecommunications
     Operators across the globe. Our mission is to provide seamless and unified platforms for the delivery of user-centric
     multimedia communications services regardless of the nature and availability of backbone infrastructures.


     At Greenpacket, we pride ourselves on being constantly at the forefront of technology. Our leading carrier-grade
     solutions and award-winning consumer devices help Telecommunications Operators open new avenues, meet new
     demands, and enrich the lifestyles of their subscribers, while forging new relationships. We see a future of limitless
     freedom in wireless communications and continuously commit to meeting the needs of our customers with leading edge
     solutions.


     With product development centers in USA, Shanghai, and Taiwan, we are on the cutting edge of new developments in
     4G (particularly WiMAX and LTE), as well as in software advancement. Our leadership position in the Telco industry is
     further enhanced by our strategic alliances with leading industry players.


     Additionally, our award-winning WiMAX modems have successfully completed interoperability tests with major WiMAX
     players and are being used by the world’s largest WiMAX Operators. We are also the leading carrier solutions provider
     in APAC catering to both 4G and 3G networks and aim to be No. 1 globally by the end of 2010.


     For more information, visit: www.greenpacket.com.




San Francisco · Kuala Lumpur · Singapore · Shanghai · Taiwan · Sydney · Bahrain · Bangkok · Hong Kong




                   Associate
                    Member


Copyright © 2001-2010 Green Packet Berhad. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, transcribed, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language, in any form
by any means, without the written permission of Green Packet Berhad. Green Packet Berhad reserves the right to modify or discontinue any product or piece of literature at anytime without prior notice.

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NETWORK CONGESTION THROUGH THE EYES OF H

  • 1. ye s of E gh the it t hrou kets Benef stion dM ar o nge elop e rk C g wD ev two on tudy on Ho Ne g K d S on et-base ata to WiFi H ark D A M floading f by O www.greenpacket.com WHITEPAPER
  • 2. Abstract The advancement and growth of the Internet is causing network congestions across the globe due to heavy data consumption required by its applications. However, with different penetration levels and usage patterns, there is a contrast for network congestion in developed and emerging countries. The network congestion issue in developed nations is more acute although current network technologies are advanced but yet they are insufficient to cope with data requirements. The only way forward is to continue upgrading to faster networks with higher capacity, but this option requires heavy investment in terms of time, effort and money. What then is a more cost-effective alternative? This paper studies Hong Kong*, a densely populated country with one of the world’s fastest growing telecoms sector and a victim of network congestion. Greenpacket presents a case study on how a cellular operator can battle network congestion without burning a hole in the pocket. *Hong Kong is selected as it is a small country with a huge population and easily comparable to any other major city in the world. The objective here is to help readers understand that network congestion as experienced by Hong Kong and proposed solution can be applied to most dense areas around the world. WHITEPAPER
  • 3. Contents Network Congestion Phenomenon: Developed vs. Emerging Markets 01 Getting to Know Hong Kong’s Telecoms Market 04 Issues Facing Hong Kong’s Mobile Broadband Landscape 08 Case Study – Operator X, Hong Kong (HSPA+ Operator) 12 Solve Your Network Congestion Woes Cost-Effectively Today! 16 WHITEPAPER
  • 4. Network Congestion Phenomenon: Developed vs. Emerging Markets Across the globe, escalating data traffic is leading to network congestion, a phenomenon that the telecommunications industry dreads. However, developed and emerging markets undergo network congestion which is different in nature due to the disparity in broadband penetration levels which leads to dissimilar usage patterns (user perspective) and business models (operator perspective). Generally, broadband penetration exceeds 35% in developed markets but barely touches 10% in most emerging markets. Figure 1 maps the broadband penetration rates of developed and emerging markets worldwide. Developed nations have a higher broadband penetration rate compared to emerging nations. Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Internet World Stats, December 2008 – December 2009 Developed Markets Emerging Markets Developed market Emerging market (more developed) Emerging market (least developed) Image Source: Alex Covarrubias through Wikipedia Figure 1: Economic Map of the World: Emerging Markets and Developed Markets 01 WHITEPAPER
  • 5. Causes of Network Congestion In Greenpacket’s earlier whitepaper Operators Can Save $14 Million Yearly Through Data Offloading (Note: You will need to complete a form to download the whitepaper), we mentioned that congestion occurs when throughput supply is lower than demand. This can be the result of too many users within a site or when the throughput level is too low. Typically, networks in emerging countries have low throughput levels such as 3.6Mbps or 1.8Mbps, in contrast to developed countries with 14.4Mbps networks and above. This condition contributes to network congestion in emerging countries. Figure 2 compares developed and emerging countries that have approximately the same build up area. As such, it can be assumed that almost equal number of network sites is required to provide coverage. Many operators in emerging countries support the same/more subscribers on networks with lower data rates. This situation leads to network congestion. For example, let’s compare Japan and Philippines. Smart (PLDT) serves 38 million subscribers on a 2.0Mbps network, as opposed to SoftBank Mobile which caters for only 21 million subscribers on a 7.2Mbps network. Country Economic Area HSDPA Supported Remarks Status (in km2) Data Rate Subscribers Czech Developed 78,866 14.4Mbps 2.9 million Both operators support the same number of Example A Republic subscribers but T-Hrvatski Telekom has a Croatia Emerging 56,594 7.2Mbps 2.9 million lower data rate. Hence, congestion occurs. Japan Developed 377,835 7.2Mbps 21 million Smart (PLDT) supports Example B more subscribers but its network has a much lower data rate against Philippines Emerging 300,000 2.0Mbps 38 million SoftBank Mobile’s data rate. Source: GSMA, BMI Figure 2: Operators in emerging countries support equal or more subscribers on networks with low throughput levels On the other hand, in developed markets, users are more mature Internet users and therefore engage in heavy data usage that demands higher bandwidth. The Internet is relied upon beyond information gathering and communications. Instead, it is heavily used for entertainment, especially video content and applications. According to research firm Sandvine, users in North America and Europe are the highest consumers of YouTube videos, as shown in Figure 3. 02 WHITEPAPER
  • 6. 1.4% 4.6% North America Caribbean and Latin America 45.1% Europe 46.8% Africa Asia-Pacific 2.1% Source: Sandvine Figure 3: YouTube minutes consumed by different regions worldwide A Market Study – Hong Kong All developed countries offer high speed broadband. Greenpacket has selected Hong Kong for a market study as this country has soaring subscriber numbers within a small land area. Additionally, Hong Kong has one of the fastest growing telecoms sector that is afflicted by network congestion. In this paper, we present a case study on how a cellular operator facing network congestion benefits from an immediate, simple and cost-effective measure to combat the issue without heavy investments in network upgrades. 03 WHITEPAPER
  • 7. Getting to Know Hong Kong’s Telecoms Market Demographics & Economy Hong Kong is situated on China’s southern coast with a land mass of 1,085km2. With a population of over 7.08 million (6,502 persons/km2), Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, in comparison to Netherlands for example, which has a land mass of 45,526km2 and population of 16.6 milion (399 persons/km2). The density level of Hong Kong is so high that it even exceeds the density level of some of the world’s most populous cities such as London (4,863 Image source: Wikipedia persons/km2), Bangkok (4,478 persons/km2) and Figure 4: Map of Hong Kong even Amsterdam (4,459 persons/km2)! Hong Kong is also one of the world’s leading developed nations, holding a GDP per capita of USD 31,849 in 2008, which is relatively higher compared to other countries (see Figure 5). One of the reasons for Hong Kong’s high GDP levels can be associated with its high broadband penetration rate and vice versa. 30% Hong Kong South Korea 25% Canada Switzerland 20% Belgium Broadband Penetration France USA 15% Spain 10% China Hungary 5% Brazil Indonesia Mexico UAE Egypt Russia Saudi Arabia 0 0 South $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Africa GDP per Capita Source: Alcatel-Lucent, 2008 Figure 5: GDP vs. broadband penetration levels of selected countries from around the world 04 WHITEPAPER
  • 8. Telecoms Background Hong Kong has one of the most advanced and sophisticated telecommunications market in the world and this has been one of the driving factors in shaping this country as a leading business and financial centre. Hong Kong’s telecommunications sector has been liberalized to set a platform that is both pro-competition and pro-consumer. This objective provides a fair playing ground in the telecoms market and ensures consumers receive best-in-class services in terms of capacity, quality, coverage and speed. Office of the Telecommunications Authority (OFTA) is the governing statutory body responsible for regulating the industry. Strong governmental support, enormous connectivity infrastructure and geographical advantage of compact size have led to Hong Kong’s successful Internet evolution. Figure 6 compares the broadband technology evolution of Hong Kong and the United States. It is evident that Hong Kong has been almost at par with United States which illustrates the former’s impressive growth in the Internet and broadband arena over the past two decades. 2G 3G 3.5G HSUPA Hong Kong GSM PCS GPRS HSPA+ WCDMA/ HSDPA CDMA (GSM EDGE 2000 1800) (EVDO) United States CDMA UMTS/ GSM One HSPA+ WCDMA HSUPA PCS 1900 GPRS EDGE HSDPA (GSM 1900) ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 Figure 6: Hong Kong and United State’s Internet and broadband evolution Hong Kong’s Telecoms Market Today Hong Kong is an extremely networked society gauging from its high infiltration rates from the broad telecoms perspective, as shown in Figure 7. Telecoms Category Degree of Infiltration % of Infiltration Fixed Line 101.6 lines/household 102% (by population) Mobile 12.6 million subscribers 180% Broadband 2.71 million subscribers ~ 56% (by population) 82% (by household) IPTV 1.2 million subscribers N/A Among highest in the world for residential penetration Figure 7: Hong Kong telecom sector’s infiltration rates 05 WHITEPAPER
  • 9. As far as broadband is concerned, the services are highly in use which explains Hong Kong’s high broadband penetration rate. At 82%, Hong Kong is ranked among the top three markets with highest household broadband penetration rate (Figure 8) and fastest average Internet connection speed (Figure 9). Markets with Highest Broadband Penetration of Households 54% United States 77% United Kingdom 58% 74% Taiwan 59% 74% 69% 2007 Switzerland 76% 93% 2012 South Korea 97% Netherlands 74% 82% 76% Hong Kong 81% 58% France 73% 65% Canada 79% 52% Australia 72% Source: Gartner, July 2008 Figure 8: Hong Kong is one of the top three markets with highest household broadband penetration rate Worldwide Top 10 Countries Average Connection Speed (Mbps) 14 Average Connection Speed (Mbps) 11.7 12 10 8.6 8 7.6 7.2 6.2 6.1 6 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4 3.8 2 0 a ng n ia ia en s ic d US k nd ar re pa lan an tv bl ed Ko 22 Ko nm La pu rla Ja m er Sw Re ng Ro he itz De h ut Sw t Ho Ne h So ec Cz Source: The State of Internet Q4 2009, Akamai Figure 9: Hong Kong is ranked second for having the fastest average Internet connection speed in Q4 2009. To date, Hong Kong has 14 fixed network operators (FNOs), five mobile network operators (MNOs) and nine mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). Such intense competition makes broadband services in this country very affordable. The combination of high penetration rate and affordable pricing formed an ideal platform for IPTV services which 06 hit 1.2 million subscribers as of December 2009, again one of the highest in the world. WHITEPAPER
  • 10. Aside from IPTV, Hong Kong has a strong network of WiFi hotspots – there were more than 8,900 public WiFi hotspots as of March 2010 and growing. An average Hong Kong Internet user spends more than 25 hours online per month, making it one of the most engaged Internet markets globally. Online communications, entertainment and social networking take up the highest share of minutes spent online (see Figure 10). Several interesting Internet usage behaviour includes the following: • Instant messaging holds the highest share at 16% (October 2009), which is almost double the time spent by Asia Pacific region as a whole • Entertainment is led by video-based applications led by YouTube and TVB.com • Social networking is led by Facebook • 5% of Internet minutes are spent on business and finance sites which reflect the country’s business and finance focused economy. This rate is more than double of Asia Pacific’s share of time for this category Hong Kong Online Activities (% Share of Minutes) 16% Instant Mesenger Netertainment Social Networking 11% Games 45% Business/Finance E-mail Search/Navigation 8% News/Information Technology 5% Others 4% 2% 2% 3% 4% Source: Comscore Report, October 2009 Figure 10: Hong Kong’s Internet usage by minutes 07 WHITEPAPER
  • 11. Issues Facing Hong Kong’s Mobile Broadband Landscape Cellular Networks Face Ceiling-level Data Usage Data usage on Hong Kong’s cellular networks is at extremely high levels which explains the reason for network congestion. How do we know this? i) The number of cellular users in Hong Kong has reached 100% of active users (active users refer to population aged 15 to 65 who are in employment or expected to enter employment). Figure 11 shows that the number of cellular subscribers (2.5G and 3G) slighly exceeds the total number of active users – this concludes that all active users in Hong Kong are enjoying Internet through their mobile broadband connections. Mobile subscribers (January 2010) 12,483, 989 2.5G and 3G mobile subscribers (January 2010) 5,275,365 No. of cellular subscribers equal % of active users 74.8% 100% active users Total number of active users 5,206, 000 Source: BMI, Q1 2010 Figure 11: Cellular users vs. total number of active users ii) Tremendous increase in data usage. Since the launch of HSDPA in 2006, subscriber count only increased 2.4 times but data consumption grew immensely by 80 times! Year 2.5G + 3G Customers 3G Customers Mobile Data Usage (Mbytes) 2009 5,000,264 3,819,186 638,388, 712 2.4 times 2008 3,490,602 2,812,002 133,145,730 increase in subscriber count 2007 2,947,378 2,004,565 32,301,563 but 80 times growth in data. 2006 2,206,586 1,331,651 9,076,723 2005 1,848,254 645,965 4,603,736 2004 1,349,015 N/A 2,330,444 2003 729,554 N/A 247,262 2002 179,931 N/A 42,029 Figure 12: Number of customers and mobile data usage in Hong Kong from 2002 – 2009 08 WHITEPAPER
  • 12. Why is Hong Kong experiencing such a gigantic leap in data usage? Here are some reasons: a. Affordable broadband rates – With the presence of 14 FNOs, five MNOs, nine MVNOs and hundreds of other licensed ISPs, healthy competition exists and keeps broadband rates very affordable for the man on the street. As such, almost the entire active population of Hong Kong is able to afford a broadband connection and use data applications. Data card plans in Hong Kong range from USD 24 to USD 49 which is lower compared to similar plans in United States which range from USD 30 to USD 60. b. High usage of IPTV – Television is loved for its rich visual and audio entertainment qualities. Delivering these qualities over Internet is a definite data gobbler. Hong Kong has 1.2 million IPTV subscribers which are among the highest in the world. c. High usage of smartphones – Hong Kong consumers lead smartphone usage globally. Almost half (48%) of consumers in Hong Kong own a smartphone, which is more than double the global rate of 23% as shown in Figure 12. The smartphone is used to access Internet applications such as email, social networking and even blogging. In today’s world of content and applications, social networking is king. This is obvious in Hong Kong whereby 30% of smartphone users regularly update their social pages compared to 12% globally. Smartphone penetration is approaching majority levels % of mobile users with a Smartphone *Covers Australia, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan. 48 40 27 23 Global 2010 Developed Asia* 2010 Hong Kong 2010 Hong Kong 2009 Source: www.cellular-news.com Figure 13: Hong Kong’s smartphone penetration rate exceeds global and Asian levels d. High Public Transport Travel – With the advantage of being geographically compact, Hong Kong has a highly developed transportation network. Over 90% of daily travels take place via public transport. This form of commutation gives subscribers time to enjoy Internet while on the go through their smartphones and other mobile devices. Decreasing ARPU Hong Kong’s telecommunications landscape undergoes intense competition which leads to price wars that sets the ARPU on a downward scale. Figure 13 shows ARPU decreasing for several leading mobile network operators in Hong Kong since 2007. 09 WHITEPAPER
  • 13. Source: Business Monitor International (BMI), Q1 2010 Figure 14: Decreasing ARPU trend faced by operators in Hong Kong Aside from the price war, the decline in ARPU (Figure 14) can also be attributed to the stronger prepaid growth than postpaid (Figure 15). Although in the past, operators in Hong Kong received higher revenues through postpaid plans, prepaid services are gaining popularity as subscribers are more conscious of their commmunication and connectivity spend. Prepaid ARPU is undeniably much lower than postpaid. For example, in 2008, Hutchison’s postpaid ARPU was almost nine times larger than prepaid ARPU1. Source: Business Monitor International (BMI), Q1 2010 Figure 15: Hong Kong’s increasing prepaid subscriber base 1Ovum 10 WHITEPAPER
  • 14. Poor Indoor Coverage Poor indoor coverage has always been a constant battle for wireless technologies. In high density countries like Hong Kong and Singapore, more than 70% of traffic occurs indoor. Analysis Mason anticipates that by 2016, over 80% of global wireless data traffic will be generated indoors. This concludes that indoor capacity demand is much higher and operators must address this issue. Operators currently face numerous complaints on bad indoor coverage from subscribers. In Japan alone, NTT Docomo recorded that over 90% of complaints are due to poor indoor reception quality. It is important to understand that indoor coverage is usually poor because wireless signals originate from base stations which are deployed outdoors. These signals need to penetrate through building material (for example, glass or concrete) and experience radio wave penetration loss of 6 – 13 dB or more which translates into throughput loss as well. Though operators today employ inbuilding solutions to boost coverage, however, in the case of Hong Kong, due to its complex morphology, these solutions are expensive to deploy. Figure 16 gives an overview of typical throughput levels at three different locations from the base station – peak rate (nearest to the base station), median users (mid way distance from base station) and cell edge. At each of this location, throughput levels are lower indoor compared to outdoor. R8 Multicarrier Single Carrier 42Mbps 36-40Mbps 21Mbps 15-18Mbps 7.8Mbps 5.2-6.8Mbps 3.8Mbps 3Mbps 2.8-1.8Mbps 2-2.6Mbps 1.5Mbps 0.8-1.2Mbps Outdoor Indoor Outdoor Indoor Outdoor Indoor Peak Rate Median Users Cell Edge Users Source: Modified from Qualcomm Figure 16: Comparison of throughput levels indoors and outdoors 11 WHITEPAPER
  • 15. Case Study – Operator X, Hong Kong (HSPA+ Operator) Technical Background There are four operators in Hong Kong and each has four frequency carriers for a total of 20MHz (three 5MHz bands and one split 5MHz band). This frequency arrangement enables three 5MHz bands to be grouped. 3G 3G 3G Satellite Mobile Operator Operator Operator 3G Operator 3G Operator 3G Operator 3G Operator Service 2 3 1 1 2 3 4 (Exemption Order) 1904.9 1909.9 1914.9 1919.9 1920.3 1935.1 1949.9 1950.1 1964.9 1979.7 1980 2010 MHz TDD Spectrum FDD Spectrum Figure 17: Frequency allocation across four Hong Kong operators Among these four operators, Greenpacket has selected Operator X* for this case study. Operator X is Hong Kong’s leading operator and the first to launch a HSPA+ 28.8Mbps. To deploy and operate a 28.8Mbps network, 5MHz frequency band is sufficient for data while the remaining 15MHz is reserved for voice and/or mobile TV (R99/MBMS). Bandwidth HSPA+ Data Rate LTE Data Rate 5MHz 42Mbps 37Mbps 10MHz 84Mbps 73Mbps 20MHz 168Mbps 150Mbps Figure 18: HSPA+ vs LTE data rates corresponding to different bandwidth levels Since Operator X (and the other operators) are investing huge sums of money into HSPA+, it is necessary to assume that they would most likely adopt the HSPA+ path in coming years which enables data rates of up to 168Mbps through four frequency carriers (20MHz spectrum). These data rates are equivalent to that of LTE as shown in Figure 17. *Name of this operator is withheld to protect its interests Expected Network Cost by End 2010 Going along the path of HSPA+, how much would Operator X need to spend to maintain its network? For this indication, Greenpacket has set certain assumptions and predictions based from our observation. 12 WHITEPAPER
  • 16. Prediction # 1: Data Usage Operator X’s data usage is at 152TB as at June 2010. Greenpacket assumes that Busy Hour (BH) rate is at 15% with a throughput/user growth rate of 4.3 times on year to year basis. Prediction # 2: Subscriber Growth by 2010 Based on a yearly (subscriber) growth rate of 15% (or 7.2% half year growth), Operator X will have 620,000 HSPA+ subscribers by the end of 2010, an increase from 575,000 subscribers as of June 2009. 3G/HSPA+ Subs Total Mobile Subs @ June 2009 3G subs @ Growth June 2010 End of 2010 Additional Subs June 2009 (GP assumption) 3G subs (Jun – Dec 2010) 2,000,000 500,000 15.0% 575,000 620,000 45,000 Prediction # 3: Additional Coverage Required As of June 2009, Operator X currently has 5,300 sectors (approximately 2,120 sites). For a more precise calculation, we make reference to sectors (as opposed to sites). This is because in Hong Kong, networks are not necessarily configured as 3 sectors per site. Due to the compact size of the country and limited space in between buildings, each site can be configured from S1/1 to S2/2/2/2/2/2. Based on the Predictions 1 and 2, to support an additional 45,000 from June – December 2010 (six months), Operator X would need to install an additional 415 sectors. The total cost of ownership (TCO) to deploy these 415 sites is estimated at approximately USD 24.4 million. Expected Revenue From the 45,000 additional subscribers Operator X expected to be acquired by end of 2010 at ARPU rate of HKD200/month, Operator X will gain a total revenue of HKD108 million/year (USD13.8 million/year). The question now is, is the expenditure of USD 24.4 million justified for an increase of 45,000 subscribers over a short period of six months? How much will Operator X need to spend over the next three years to improve its infrastructure and support subscriber growth? With ARPU’s declining rate versus large network upgrade costs, how will Operator X sustain in the long term? From an ROI perspective, with the investment expenditure of USD 24.4 million for 415 sectors, Operator X faces an ROI period of one year and nine months. This duration is based on the average growth pattern of subscribers. However, as data usage per user continues to rise through the use of data intensive applications, Greenpacket believes that the ROI on required infrastructure upgrades can extend to two or three years. This is a very risky approach as technologies evolve at a fast pace and infrastructure normally changes every five years, for example the evolution of from GSM-WCDMA-HSPA+ to LTE. 13 WHITEPAPER
  • 17. Is There a Better Alternative? As opposed to expensive and time consuming network upgrades, it would be more cost and time efficient for Operator X to manage extra network workload by offloading to WiFi. This is an ideal alternative for Operator X in view of the excellent network of WiFi hotspots available in Hong Kong. With close to 9,0002 WiFi hotspots available, mathematically assuming, every km2 has an average of eight hotspots! By partnering with these WiFi providers, Operator X can support its growing subscriber base with involving time, effort and money on network upgrades. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, poor indoor reception is a major concern for mobile broadband operators. This issue can only resolved through indoor solutions such as WiFi. Hence, aside from managing data influx on their networks, WiFi help operators to improve indoor coverage remarkably. Offloading data to WiFi hotzones3 is also an approach undertaken by AT&T, a leading mobile network operator in the United States. AT&T began this project in May 2010 in New York City to supplement its mobile broadband in areas with high 3G traffic and mobile data use. Customer usage and satisfaction levels have been extremely encouraging according to Angie Wiskocil, Senior VP, AT&T WiFi Services. AT&T is in the midst of rolling out more WiFi hotzones to more cities in United States. Conclusion In the age of growing intensive data usage, celullar operators in developed markets need an immediate and cost-effective way to manage their networks. The proliferation of smartphones and decreasing ARPU levels further add urgency to ensure network congestion does not pose a threat. One of the solutions to prevent network congestion is by offloading data to alternative broadband networks, especially WiFi. Aside from balancing network bandwidth, WiFi is a good indoor solution and provides a much better reception compared to cellular networks. Performance Comparison: 3G vs. WiFi Rysavy Reseach and Quality in Motion conducted a metropolitan survey to gauge performance levels between 3G and WiFi. WiFi provided better performance compared to 3G as shown in Figure 19. 2Office of the Telecommunications Authority, Hong Kong 3Fierce Mobile Content 14 WHITEPAPER
  • 18. Test T-Mobile HotSpot Verizon EVDO FTP download throughput, average of all 1,274kbps 310kbps locations Highest FTP download speed 1,396kbps 528kbps Lowest FTP download speed 548kbps 51kbps FTP download failures 1 in 18 tests (6% failure rate) 6 in 24 tests (25% failure rate) FTP download standard deviation across 348kbps 162kbps all eight locations Throughput test, loaded network 367kbps 248kbps (4 simultaneous clients) FTP upload throughput, average of all 1,329kbps 100kbps locations Test Webpage (ww.cnn.com) download 6 sec 55 sec time, average across all locations Microsoft Outlook download time 23 sec 122 sec (3 megabytes), all locations Micosoft Outlook over VPN upload time 16 sec 214 sec (8 megabytes), all locations Figure 19: Performance comparison of WiFi (T-Mobile HotSpot) vs. 3G (Verizon EVDO) 15 WHITEPAPER
  • 19. Solve Your Network Congestion Woes Cost-Effectively Today! Greenpacket welcomes you to embark on the offloading journey today and enjoy tremendous cost savings on your network operations. At Greenpacket, we understand the demands placed on Operators like you. That is why our solutions are designed to give you the capacity to constantly deliver cutting-edge offerings without exhausting your capital and operating expenditures. With Greenpacket, limitless freedom begins now! Free Consultation If you would like a free consultation on how you can start saving network cost through data offloading, feel free to contact us at marketing.gp@greenpacket.com kindly quote the reference code, WP0810DL when you contact us). As part of the consultation, we will be happy to walk-through your network’s TCO and determine how much savings you would gain by offloading data. 16 WHITEPAPER
  • 20. References 1. 2009 Global Broadband Phenomena by Sandvine 2. Hong Kong: The Facts – Telecommunications, Office of the Telecommunications Authority 3. Wireless Network Assessment, EV-DO and Wi-Fi Hotspots by Rysavy Research & Quality in Motion (QIM) 4. The importance of prepaid mobile increases in Hong Kong by Sherrie Huang, Ovum 5. HSPA+ is here, what is next? by Qualcomm 17 WHITEPAPER
  • 21. About Green Packet Greenpacket is the international arm of the Green Packet Berhad group of companies which is listed on the Main Board of the Malaysian Bourse. Founded in San Francisco’s Silicon Valley in 2000 and now headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Greenpacket has a presence in 9 countries and is continuously expanding to be near its customers and in readiness for new markets. We are a leading developer of Next Generation Mobile Broadband and Networking Solutions for Telecommunications Operators across the globe. Our mission is to provide seamless and unified platforms for the delivery of user-centric multimedia communications services regardless of the nature and availability of backbone infrastructures. At Greenpacket, we pride ourselves on being constantly at the forefront of technology. Our leading carrier-grade solutions and award-winning consumer devices help Telecommunications Operators open new avenues, meet new demands, and enrich the lifestyles of their subscribers, while forging new relationships. We see a future of limitless freedom in wireless communications and continuously commit to meeting the needs of our customers with leading edge solutions. With product development centers in USA, Shanghai, and Taiwan, we are on the cutting edge of new developments in 4G (particularly WiMAX and LTE), as well as in software advancement. Our leadership position in the Telco industry is further enhanced by our strategic alliances with leading industry players. Additionally, our award-winning WiMAX modems have successfully completed interoperability tests with major WiMAX players and are being used by the world’s largest WiMAX Operators. We are also the leading carrier solutions provider in APAC catering to both 4G and 3G networks and aim to be No. 1 globally by the end of 2010. For more information, visit: www.greenpacket.com. San Francisco · Kuala Lumpur · Singapore · Shanghai · Taiwan · Sydney · Bahrain · Bangkok · Hong Kong Associate Member Copyright © 2001-2010 Green Packet Berhad. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, transcribed, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language, in any form by any means, without the written permission of Green Packet Berhad. Green Packet Berhad reserves the right to modify or discontinue any product or piece of literature at anytime without prior notice.