Natural disasters_LOSS ESTIMATION .pptx

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Natural disasters:
Evaluation of losses and design of
structures
• BY:
• University of West Attica
• PRESENTED BY:
• Nikos Pnevmatikos

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Natural disasters
Quakes

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Natural disasters
Floods

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Natural disasters
Fires

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Natural disasters
Landslide

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Natural disasters
Tsunami

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Natural disasters
Hurricane
Tornado

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Natural disasters
Snow

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Natural disasters
coastal erosion

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Natural disasters
Cost,
Causalities
Increased? Maybe fake

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Natural disasters
Natural phenomena
or
Natural Hazards (intensity of Natural phenomena )
or
Natural disasters ? (damages in human environment )

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Risk , R
R = H * V * E
Hazard Vulnerability
No of elements to
exposure
structural Non structural
Risk

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Seismic Risk , R
R = H * V * E
Seismic hazard vulnerability
No of elements to
exposure
structural Non structural
Seismic Risk

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High seismic risk ≠ High seismic hazard

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Seismic hazard
or seismicity
It is the probability that an earthquake will occur
within a certain period of time.
Deterministic
Stochastic

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Vulnerability
Vulnerability is the tendency, the predisposition, of a structure to be
damaged due to a seismic action

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Seismic loss estimation
Why ?
Can we do with accuracy ?
Only the god knows……. why we?
• For preparation
• For readiness

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strategy
1st Step:
• Evaluation of seismic Hazard, activation scenario,
measurements, different time of day, …
• Griding of region.
• Usage of attenuation relationships suitable for region,
estimation of PGA for each grid point.
• Correcting for directivity phenomena, non linear behavior of
soil.

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strategy
2nd Step:
• Recording of each type of construction (material, heigh,
static system, date of construction and design code) in each
grid square.
• Matching of every building type to the corresponding fragility
curve για κάθε τύπου κατασκευής της καμπύλης
θραυστότητας τους για συγκεκριμένα επίπεδα βλfor each
level of damage.

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3rd step:
loss estimation
• No of damage buildings per damage category
• Cost
• Recovery time
• Injured - causalities
strategy

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ag
strategy

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strategy, software

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ΛΟΓΙΣΜΙΚΟ ΟΡΓΑΝΙΣΜΟΣ ΠΡΟΣΒΑΣΙΜΟΤΗΤΑ
1. HAZUS FEMA ΟΧΙ
2. SELENA NORSAR ΑΝΟΙΚΤΟΥ ΚΩΔΙΚΑ
3. ELER Boğaziçi University, KOERI, NERIES ΕΚΤΕΛΕΣΙΜΗ ΜΟΡΦΗ
4. EQRM Geosience Australia ΑΝΟΙΚΤΟΥ ΚΩΔΙΚΑ
5. QLARM WARMERR ΟΧΙ
6. CEDIM Sergey Tyagunov ΟΧΙ
7. CAPRA World bank ΟΧΙ
8. RISKSCAPE GNS sience ΟΧΙ
9. LNECLOSS LNEC ΟΧΙ
10. MAEviz MAE center ΑΝΟΙΚΤΟΥ ΚΩΔΙΚΑ
11. OpenRisk SPA Risk LLc ΟΧΙ
12. DBELA Rose School/EUCENTRE ΟΧΙ
13. HAZ-TAIWAN ΟΧΙ
14. OpenQuake GEM ΑΝΟΙΚΤΟΥ ΚΩΔΙΚΑ
15. Syner - G Ευρωπαϊκό Πρόγραμμα Συνεργασίας ΑΝΟΙΚΤΟΥ ΚΩΔΙΚΑ
strategy, software

HAZUS-MH: FEMA’S SOFTWARE PROGRAM FOR ESTIMATING POTENTIAL LOSSES FROM DISASTERS
Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and Floods
Will Continue to Occur…

How can we plan to minimize
damage and loss of life to prevent
natural hazards from becoming
natural disasters?
Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and Floods
Will Continue to Occur…

What If Scenarios
What if a Hurricane occurred?
What if an Earthquake occurred?
What if a Flood occurred?
What if a Dam Breach occurred?
What if a Technological Hazard occurred?

HAZUS-MH: Features Physical
Impacts
Economic
Impacts
Social Impacts
 GIS Technology
 Nationwide Databases
 Nationally Standardized Loss
Estimation and Risk Assessment
Methodology

GIS Technology
 Spatial Relationships
 Layers
 Computations

GIS Technology
 Spatial Relationships
 Layers
 Computations
 Risk
Communication
 Risks
 Solutions

 Demographics – Population, Employment, Housing
 Building Stock – Residential, Commercial, Industrial
 Essential Facilities – Hospitals, Schools, Police Stations, Fire Stations
 Transportation – Highways, Bridges, Railways, Tunnels, Airports, Ports and
Harbors, Ferry Facilities
 Utilities – Waste Water, Potable Water, Oil, Gas, Electric Power,
Communication Facilities
 High Potential Loss Facilities – Dams and Levees, Nuclear Facilities,
Hazardous Material Sites, Military Installations
Nationwide Databases

Nationwide Databases
Non-Proprietary
Customizable

Nationally Standardized Loss
Estimation and Risk Assessment Methodology
 Engineering Analysis
 Hazard-Specific
Oversight
Committees
 Expert Practitioners
 Academics
 Non-Proprietary
 Well Documented

HAZUS-MH is for a study area of any size
 Region
 Community
 Neighborhood
 Individual
Site

Respond
HAZUS-MH and Risk Management
Prepare
Recover Mitigate

Where are the best locations for
shelters and do we have enough
space?
Where should we target
outreach activities?
Preparing for a Natural Hazard
What are our risks?

Where should we put our
resources to achieve
maximum benefit?
How much will this mitigation
strategy decrease our
losses?
Where are we in
our mitigation plan?
How have we progressed?
Mitigating the Effects of
a Natural Hazard

What hospitals were
damaged and where
should we take our
injured?
Responding to a Natural Hazard
How many
injuries do we
expect?

Recovering from a Natural Hazard
What is the demand
on recovery staff?
How much debris
do we have to
remove?
How much funding
does the community
need to request to
recover?

HAZUS-MH: Analysis Levels
InCAST – Inventory Collection
And Survey Tool
BIT – Building data Import Tool
FIT – Flood Information Tool
Level 1 and 2 analyses can usually be
performed by emergency services or
planning staff
Level 3 analysis typically
requires technical expertise
Parameter
Modification

HAZUS-MH: Models

Wood Construction

Direct Economic Losses
Greatest Economic
Losses

Damaged Highways and Schools
HAZUS MH — FEMA’S SOFTWARE PROGRAM FOR ESTIMATING POTENTIAL LOSSES FROM DISASTERS

A Flood Study - Mecklenburg, NC
Study Results – Sugar Creek
 Support Adoption of
New Floodplain
Studies
 Saved the County
$74 Million Dollars in
Damage Reduction
Through Increased
Floodplain
Regulations
Current
Building
Inventory
Current
Building
Inventory
Future
Building
Inventory
1975 2000 2000
100%
400%

HAZUS Reaching Beyond
Natural Disasters
 ALOHA Dispersion
Modeling
 FLDWAV Dam
Breach Modeling

HAZUS: User Groups
HAZUS
USER GROUP
UTILITIES
PRIVATE
FEDERAL
STATE
GOVERNMENT
LABORATORIES
LOCAL
NONPROFIT
UNIVERSITIES
Facility Manager
Technical Experts
NONPROFIT
Red Cross
Technical Experts
Local Planners
Emergency
Response
Personnel
Legislative
Contacts
Medical Personnel

Summary
HAZUS-MH allows you to:
 IDENTIFY vulnerable areas that may require planning considerations
(e.g., land use or building code requirements)
 ASSESS the level of readiness and preparedness to deal with a disaster
before the disaster occurs
 ESTIMATE potential losses from specific hazard events, including pre-
event, near real-time, and post-event report capability
 DECIDE on how to allocate resources for the most effective and
efficient response and recovery
 PRIORITIZE the mitigation measures that need to be implemented to
reduce future losses

…helping develop, implement, and track
local and state risk assessment and
mitigation plans

Visit the HAZUS website:
http://www.fema.gov/hazus
http://www.hazus.org/
or email inquiries to:
hazus@fema.gov
Ken Wallace
FEMA Region III
Kenneth.C.Wallace@DHS.Gov
215.931.5723
HAZUS-MH Information

What is HAZUS-MH?
 It is an estimation tool, NOT a deterministic tool
 It is a planning tool, NOT an engineering tool
 Engineering-level data (i.e. Hydrology & Hydraulic studies) can be
input to increase accuracy, but results still produce planning-level
estimations
 It also assesses population needs related to
emergency management
 It also allows users to compare results from different
study case scenarios, including mitigation actions
HAZUS-MH is a planning tool that estimates
damage and losses resulting from natural hazards
HAZUS-MH is an empirical model based on observation and experiment

www.THMP.info
H & H
Texas Hazard
Mitigation Package
(THMP)
Identification Tool
HAZUS
Loss Estimation Tool
 Local Hydrology & Hydraulic
Studies
 H & H specific
applications
Engineering Tools
& Data
Highly Accurate
(more expensive)
Easy to Use
(less expensive)

HAZUS-MH: Family of Products
 Models
HAZUS-MH is a multi-hazard (MH) application
Flood, Hurricane (Wind), Earthquake
 Data Integration Tools
• Inventory Collection And Survey Tool (InCAST)
• Building Import Tool (BIT)
• * Flood Information Tool (FIT)
 Linkage to 3rd-party Models
• Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA)
• Flood Waves (FLDWAV)

HAZUS-MH: Technical Components
 Software: Custom GIS (geographic information system)
 Runs on ESRI products; ArcGIS and Spatial Analyst
• ESRI products must be acquired separately
 Spatial Analyst required for Flood Model only
• HAZUS-MH is free from FEMA <www.fema.gov/hazus>
 Current HAZUS-MH version (MR1) runs on ArcView 9.0
 Data: National data sets
 Inventory of assets (buildings, infrastructure, population/demographics, etc.)
• Users may modify data sets or model factors
• Users may add their own data

ArcGIS / ArcView &
Spatial Analyst
www.esri.com

HAZUS-MH: Technical Notes
 Operating System Requirements
 Windows XP SP1
 Windows 2000 SP1 – SP4
 GIS Requirements
 ArcGIS 9.0, SP1
 Spatial Analyst extension (Flood Model
only)

HAZUS-MH: Technical Requirements
From FEMA Web Site
ArcGIS and HAZUS require significant computing power and resources
(Computer hard disk space varies per dramatically per User)

HAZUS-MH: Methodology
5. Estimate Losses/Needs
4. Estimate Damage
3. Overlay Inventory
2. Define Flood Hazard
1. Define the Geographic Area
for Analysis

HAZUS-MH:
Models
FLOOD HURRICANE EARTHQUAKE

HAZUS-MH: Methodology
MODEL
Flood
Hurricane/Wind
Earthquake
Hazard
Inventory
Building Stock
Essential Facilities
High Potential Loss Facilities
Transportation
Utilities
Hazardous Materials
Demographics/Population
Agricultural Products
Vehicles
PARAMETERS & SCHEMES
Economic
Social
Functionality
System
Performance
Direct Loss
Business
Interruption
Shelter
Casualties
Essential
Facilities
Emergency
Response
Power
Transportation
Transportation
Utilities
Water
Damage
Assessment
Loss
Estimation
RESULTS
ANALYSIS

INVENTORY
Buildings
Infrastructure
Population
Land Use
DIRECT DAMAGE
General Building Stock
Essential Facilities
High Potential Loss Facilities
Transportation Facilities
Lifelines
INDUCED DAMAGE
Fire Following Flood
Hazardous Materials Release
Debris Generation
INDIRECT LOSSES
DIRECT LOSSES
Cost of Repairs/Replacement
Income Loss
Crop Damage
Casualties
Shelter and Recovery Needs
Supply Shortages
Sales Decline
Opportunity Costs
Economic Loss
Frequency
Discharge
Depth/Elevation
Velocity
Duration
FLOOD HAZARD
HAZUS-MH Methodology

HAZUS-MH: Levels of Analysis
Community-specific
Damage Functions
Link HAZUS with
Hydraulic Model
Distribution of Terrain
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
O
p
e
n
/C
o
a
s
t
a
l
L
ig
h
t
S
u
b
u
r
b
.
M
e
d
.
S
u
b
u
r
b
.
D
e
n
s
e
S
u
b
u
r
b
.
U
r
b
a
n
Percentage
of
Area
Damage
Flood Depth
Level 1
Modify Building
Inventory
FIT (add local H & H)
Number of Buildings by Specific Occupancy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4 RES5 RES6
Building
Count
Level 1
Level 2
(most users)
Level 3
User Modified
Data

Applications in Mitigation Planning &
Emergency Management
HAZUS-MH
Response &
Recovery
Loss
Reduction
(Mitigation)
Emergency
Preparedness

HAZUS Applications:
Emergency Preparedness
 Develop emergency response plans
• Temporary housing
• Debris removal
• Emergency power and water
• Emergency medical services
• Evacuation/emergency route clearance
 Organize response exercises

 Mitigation Assessment
• Identify ‘at-risk’ communities
 Mitigation Measures
• Strengthen existing structures
• Strengthen window/door openings and siding
 Mitigation Programs
• Adopt and enforce hazard-resistant building codes
• Land use planning
HAZUS Applications:
Mitigation

 Post-disaster damage assessment and ground-
truthing
 Response planning for critical transportation
outages
 Identify critical infrastructure
 Recovery action planning
 Long-term economic recovery planning
HAZUS Applications:
Response and Recovery

Benefit Summary
 HAZUS-MH allows user to:
• IDENTIFY vulnerable areas that may require planning
considerations
• ASSESS level of readiness and preparedness to deal
with a disaster before disaster occurs
• ESTIMATE potential losses from specific hazard events
(before or after a disaster hits)
• DECIDE on how to allocate resources for most effective
and efficient response and recovery
• PRIORITIZE mitigation measures that need to be
implemented to reduce future losses (what if)

FEMA: Ordering HAZUS
• HAZUS-MH Overview
• Brochures/Materials
• Order Information
• Application Case Studies
• National Conference Info
• FEMA/EMI Training Schedule
• General Contact Info
• Technical Support/FAQ’s
www.fema.gov/hazus

Flood Hazard Model
1.Define
Topography
RIVERINE
COASTAL
2. Generate
Stream
Network
3. Define
Study Case
4. Run
Hydrology
Segment
Shoreline
Enter
100-yr
Elevation
5. Compute
Hazard
Initial Step: Create/Open Study Region
Final Step: Run Analysis & View Results

Initial Step:
Create a Study Region

Flood Water Elevation
- Ground Elevation
= Flood Depth
HAZUS computes:
• Floodplain Boundary
• *Flood Depth Grid*
Flood Hazard
Vertical Datum: Sea Level
Normal Water Elevation
(main channel)
Floodplain Boundary
Flood Water
Elevation

5. Compute Hazard
(Run Hydraulics)

View Results
by Attribute Table
REMEMBER! units are in thousands of dollars (derived from HAZUS Tables)

View Results
by Summary Report

Development of Next-Generation Performance-Based Seismic Design Guidelines
ATC 58 Performance Assessment
Calculation Tool (PACT)

What is PACT?
• PACT is intended to be an open-source, engineer-friendly,
software system coded entirely in VB 6.0 and Fortran.
• It is a small part of a very large effort
(ATC-58)
• PACT is an implementation of the PEER PBEE methodology
 Probability of
• Death
• Dollars
• Downtime
Only this one at this time

What Goes Into PACT?
• PACT gathers and stores very Basic Building Information
 To the extent needed to define
• basic proportions (plan dimensions, story heights, perimeter length)
• Structural system
• Nonstructural systems and components
• Contents
• User specified correlation of damage for performance groups
(currently binary)
• Extent of other information needed is a function of user’s expertise
 Basic Assessment (very little, if any)
• Modification of default quantities
 Enhanced Assessment (from little to extensive)
• Specification of detailed quantities and repair costs
• Adding new and modifying existing performance groups and fragility functions
• Engineering Demand Parameters
 Estimates of story drifts and accelerations at each floor
• (H-Dir-1, H-Dir-2, and Non-directional)

Performance Group Damage States and
Fragilities
Damage state
threshold
Required/
optional
Demand
parameter
i
DS
EDP
Median EDP
i
DS
EDP
Uncertainty,beta
i
DS

DS0 (no damage) Required
DS1 Optional
DS2 Optional
DS3 Optional
etc. Optional
DSj (complete
damage)
Required
Force or
displacement
demand from
structural analysis
Value of demand
for which the DS
has a 50% chance
of occurring (and
of not occurring)
Associated with
components only;
independent of IM
None
Complete
DS1 DS2 DS3 DSj
0
0.5
1.0
 
P i
DS DS

EDP
1
EDP 2
EDP 3
EDP j
EDP
  ln
1
P
i i
i
DS DS
EDP
DS DS EDP
EDP

 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 
None
Complete
DS1
DS1 DS2
DS2 DS3
DS3 DSj
DSj
0
0.5
1.0
 
P i
DS DS

EDP
1
EDP 2
EDP 3
EDP j
EDP
  ln
1
P
i i
i
DS DS
EDP
DS DS EDP
EDP

 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 

Correlation of Damage
P(DS2)=0.60
P(DS2)=0.60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
P(DS>=
DSi)
DS0 DS1 DS2 DS4
Interstory drift, %
EDPi
P(DS4)=0.07
P(DS4)=0.07
P(DS3)=0.26
P(DS3)=0.26
P(DS0)=0.07
Randomly generated horizontal

What does PACT do with this information?
• PACT takes the basic building information provided and,
• a set of engineering demand parameters for the building (say results of 5, 10 or 20 nonlinear
dynamic response analyses for a given scenario or hazard level, PACT gathers and stores very
Basic Building Information and,
• It performs simulations using Cholesky Decomposition to generate 100s of realizations
• Based on these realizations, PACT generates probability of loss curves for the entire building, a
particular floor, a particular direction, or a single component.
• Results are presented in a uniform fashion across various levels of generalization and can be
saved and exported to Excel, text files, and various graphic formats.
• PACT is an XML based product and all of the input, intermediate, and output data is preserved in
a hierarchical format that can be retrieved, modified, and enhanced at any time.

Let us take a look at it!
Viewer Discretion Is Advised
PACT is a product still under development and every thing about it changes
several times everyday.
What I show you is basically the “Enhanced Assessment Option.” I comment on
where and how the “Basic Assessment Option would be different
For complete legal jargon, see me after this session.
We have the informed consent of the audience. Proceed!

A demonstration of PACT as is
now

PACT Analysis Types
• Intensity-based assessments
 what are the chances of losses of given amount, if the building is
subjected to ground motion of specific intensity?
• Scenario-based assessments
 what are the chances of experiencing more than $10M damage from
a M6 on the San Andreas Fault?
• Time-based assessment
 what are the chances of losses exceeding a given amount, over a
given time period?

Time-based Assessment
• You already saw
how intensity and
scenario based
assessments are
done.
• For time-based
assessment, the
user is asked to
upload or enter a
hazard curve.

Time-based Assessment
• Then the user is asked to
associate a set of previous
runs with particular points
on the hazard curve.
• PACT then performs
integrations generating a
loss surface and
annualized loss curves.
• Annualized loss curves
may be combined and
manipulated exactly as
other loss curves.
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Capital losses ($M)
Annual probability of
being exceeded
Annualized loss before
retrofit= $100k
Annualized loss after
retrofit= $60k
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Capital losses ($M)
Annual probability of
being exceeded
Annualized loss before
retrofit= $100k
Annualized loss after
retrofit= $60k

Overview of CAPRA
Carlos Avelar
carlos_avelar@ern.com.mx
• Promoted by the World Bank.
• Technical development and assistance by the
Consortium ERN.
• Applied for: Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Belize, Panama),
Colombia, Chile, Peru, Bolivia and Mexico.
• Actually in development for Pakistan.
• Previous trainings in India, Thailand, Nepal, among
others.
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Disaster Risk Information Platform for use in
decision-making that is based on a unified
methodology and tools for evaluating and
expressing disaster risk.
CAPRA was developed by experts to consolidate
hazard and risk assessment methodologies and
raise risk management.
Risk management
 Prevention and mitigation
 Emergency response
 Reconstruction and rehabilitation
 Financial protection
DATA AND KNOWLEDGE FOR DECISION MAKING
Probabilistic risk modeling
104

Prevention Mitigation Evaluation
Mexico City Earthquake - 1985 Kobe Earthquake -1995
Application 1
Application 1
Application 1
Application 1
Loss Estimation
Economic Human
Exposure
Applications
Physical
Damage
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Risk analysis methodology
Hazard
Vulnerability
105

Probabilistic Hazard Estimation
Specific models
Specific information for hazard estimation
Hazard
Exposure
Specific information for exposure representation
Exposure
106

Vulnerability estimation
Specific models
Specific information for vulnerability estimation
Vulnerability
CAPRA
Exposure
Hazard Vulnerability
107

f (Hazard, Vulnerability, $) = Risk
H V R
$
H V R
$
108

H V R
$
H V R
$
109

HAZARDS
Hail
Flood
Hurricane
Tsunami
Multi-hazard approach
Multi-disciplinary effort
PRIMARY HAZARD P. H. EFFECTS SECONDARY HAZARD S. H.
EFFECTS
(Intensity) (Intensity)
TSUNAMI
EARTHQUAKE
HURRICANE
RAINFALL
VOLCANO
Wind speed
Strom surge
Lava Flow
Pyroclastic
Flow
Ash fallout
Ground
Shaking
Flood depth
LANDSLIDE
Slope
instability
C
A
P
R
A
G
I
S
Precipitation
Precipitation
FLOOD
Flood depth
110

Hazard “temporality”
CAPRA Modules
CAPRA-Hazard
CAPRA-SIG
Format:
Hazard.ame
Risk estimation
111
TEMPORALITY
HAZARD
ANALYS
IS
TEMPORALITY
Hazard 1 2 3 4
Earthquake
(ground
aceleration)
Tsunami
Hurricane – Wind
Hurricane – Storm Surge
Hurricane - Rain
Rain (no hurricane)
Flood
Landslides
Volcano – Ash fall
Volcano – Piroclastic flows
Volcano – Lava flows

MAIN INITIATIVES
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECTS (TAPs)
A TAP is a technical assistance process to provide training
on probabilistic hazard or disaster risk modeling using the
CAPRA platform, applied to a specific risk management
process or development program that contributes to the
definition of public policies and programs for disaster risk
reduction.
MAIN INITIATIVES
SOFTWARE MODULES
ERN developed a series of probabilistic hazard
evaluation applications, which can be used to
model the specific hazard of any region, in terms
of a set of stochastic events, characterized with an
annual occurrence rate.
The result is a set of grids, geographically
referenced, where the intensity values generated by
the occurrence of the hazardous event are saved
using 2 statistical moments: mean value and
standard deviation.
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CRISIS
CRISIS is the CAPRA seismic and tsunami hazard module. It
allows the complete definition of a seismic model for probabilistic
hazard assessment, and the calculation of stochastic scenarios
for risk evaluation. CRISIS2007 was developed at the
Engineering Institute of the National University of Mexico
(UNAM), by M. Ordaz et al.
ERN-Flood
ERN-Flood allows the estimation of the flood depths on
any given region, based on a set of stochastic rainfall
scenarios.
113

ERN-Landslide
Is a software for landslide hazard modeling developed by ERN. Based
on the quantity and quality of the available information, users may select
between these hazard evaluation methodologies:
• Mora-Varhson's method
• Infinite slope method
• Newmark's method
CAPRA
CAPRA-GIS is a geographic information system developed by
ERN, which is oriented to probabilistic risk estimations.
CAPRA-GIS integrates hazard, exposure and vulnerability
information and perform the risk analysis.
114

www.ecapra.org
www.ecapra.org
115

Tutorials
Step by step example for the use of the different software modules
(hazard, vulnerability, risk).
www.ecapra.org
Example:
Average annual loss for earthquake
0 - 5
116
A
A
L
[
U
S
$
]
6 - 20
21 - 100
101 - 400
401 - 4,200

117
Seismic vulnerability assessment and loss
estimation in Cephalonia and Ithaca islands,
Greece, due to earthquake events
Quake 26-1-20014 , Μw=6.
Earthquake scenarios Μw : from 6 to 7
Geographic background of region based
on U.S.G.S. Global Vs-30 Map Server
(Default Vs-30 Grid).
Grand acceleration Akkar and Bommer
2007,
Step 1st : Seismic hazard estimation

118
Recorded PGA 0.39g
Estimated PGA 0.35g
Step 1st : Seismic hazard estimation

119
Έτος
κατασκευής
Υλικό Σχεδιασμός Διαμόρφωση Ονοματολογία
Μέχρι 1960 πέτρα Χωρίς κανονισμό M3wL
τούβλο
(αρωγής)
μπετόν
ΒΔ’59
πλαίσια με κανονικές
τοιχοπληρώσεις
RC31LL
1986-1995 μπετόν
ΒΔ’59 με
πρόσθετα άρθρα
μικτά συστήματα με
κανονικές
RC41LΜ
>1995 μπετόν ΝΕΑΚ/ΕΑΚ2000
μικτά συστήματα με
κανονικές
RC41LΗ
European Building Typology EU FP5 Risk UE program
Step 2nd : Vulnerability

120
(α) (β
Σχήμα 3α: Κατανομή κτιρίων ανάλογα με την ταξινόμηση
τους καθώς και ο συνολικός τους αριθμός.
Σχήμα 3β: Κατανομή του πληθυσμού
(α) (β)
Building distribution
Population distribution

121
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
P[ds/Sd]
Sd(m)
D1 D2
D3 D4
Μ3wL
βλάβες
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
P[ds/Sd]
Sd (m)
D1 D2
D3 D4
RC41LΜ
βλάβες

122
• Fragility curves of masonry building and reinforced
buildings in response spectrum displacement.
• Methods of calculation spectrum displacement from
PGA:
 Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM)
 Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response
Spectrum (MADRS) Method
 Reduction Factor Method (RFM)
 Coefficient Method (CM)

123
Method MADRS
Επίπεδα βλαβών
Σύνολο
κτιρίων
Τυπολογία
κτιρίων
D1 D2 D3 D4
M3wL 1002 530 286 80 2382
RC31LL 5338 2699 18 1 16713
RC41LM 850 233 0 0 3641
RC41LH 381 26 0 0 7939
ΣΥΝΟΛΟ 7571 3488 304 81 30675
Step 3rd : Seismic losses estimation

124
No of Buildings in DL3 for all Methods
Μέθοδοι στοχευμένης μετακίνησης
Τυπολογία
κτιρίων
CSM MADRS RMF CM
M3wL 305 286 42 496
RC31LL 14 18 0 162
RC41LM 0 0 0 14
RC41LH 0 0 0 0
ΣΥΝΟΛΟ 319 304 42 672

125
42.07%
31.94%
23.35%
4.80%
24.68%
22.25%
16.15%
6.40%
0.33%
11.37%
8.65%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.73%
3.36%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
0.26%
M3wL
RC31LL
RC41LM
RC41LH
ΣΥΝΟΛΟ
D4 D3 D2 D1
Damage level
distribution for each
building category

126
13%
15%
92%
99%
71%
77%
8%
1%
11%
7%
5%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
D1
D2
D3
D4
M3wL RC31LL RC41LM RC41LH
Damage buildings distribution for each damage level

127
ΧΑΡΑΚΤΗΡΙΣΜΟΣ ΚΤΙΡΙΩΝ ΣΥΣΧΕΤΙΣΗ ΒΛΑΒΩΝ Di
ΠΡΑΣΙΝΑ D1+1/2 D2
ΚΙΤΡΙΝΑ (φέρουσα τοιχοποιία) 1/2D2
ΚΙΤΡΙΝΑ(οπλισμένο σκυρόδεμα) 1/2D2+1/2D3
KΟΚΚΙΝΑ (φέρουσα τοιχοποιία) D3+D4
KΟΚΚΙΝΑ(οπλισμένο σκυρόδεμα) 1/2D3+D4
Correlation of damage level to authorities damage category
(Δ.Α.Ε.Φ.Κ.)

128
Comparison result in No of damaged buildings from ΕLER
software and authorities record (ΔΑΕΦΚ)
3663
1458
220
9315
1753
296
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Πράσινα
Κίτρινα
Κόκκινα Eler Level2 Δ.Α.Ε.Φ.Κ.

129
Comparison result in No of damaged buildings of masonry
and RC from ΕLER software and authorities record (ΔΑΕΦΚ)
86%
54%
85%
34%
3%
12%
14%
46%
15%
66%
97%
88%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Eler
Δ.Α.Ε.Φ.Κ.
Eler
Δ.Α.Ε.Φ.Κ.
Eler
Δ.Α.Ε.Φ.Κ.
ΠΡΑΣΙΝΑ
ΚΙΤΡΙΝΑ
ΚΟΚΚΙΝΑ
ΟΠΛΙΣΜΕΝΟ ΣΚΥΡΟΔΕΜΑ ΦΕΡΟΥΣΑ ΤΟΙΧΟΠΟΙΙΑ

130
D1-Sli=2%
D2-Mod=10%
D3-Ext=80%
D4-Com=100%
• Total cost estimated in 54.394.358€
• Total cost recorded from authorities (ΔΑΕΦΚ)
58.540.000€.
REPLACEMENT COST
900 Ευρώ /m2

131
(Source: HAZUS-MH
FEMA, 2003
pk the probability of a damage Dk occurrence
wsi,k the casualty rate considered for pk probability
psi the probability of suffering i- severity level
Injured and causalities estimations

132
Casualty rates for Unreinforced Masonry Structures (HAZUS99)
Casualty rates for Unreinforced Masonry Structures (HAZUS-MH)

133
Σοβαρότητα
τραυματισμών
HAZUS_MH HAZUS_99 KOERI (2002)
S1 1 36 35
S2 6 5 11
S3 0 0 5
S4 2 0 5

134
M M3wL RC31LL RC41LM RC41LH
Κόστος €
x106
Ανθρ.απώλειες
S3+S4
6 1898 8056 1083 407 54 2
6,2 1901 9065 1795 2295 69 2
6,4 1997 10639 2033 3123 80 3
6,6 2033 11749 2350 3685 119 5
6,8 2128 13156 2605 4271 148 9
7 2305 13775 2785 4656 163 13
Losses for different level of earthquake

135
0
500
1000
1500
6 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7
αριθμός
κτιρίων
μέγεθος σεισμού Μ
M3wL RC31LL RC41LM RC41LH
Κτιριακών απώλειες για βλάβες D3+D4 ( εκτεταμένες βλάβες
μαζί με τις καταρρεύσεις)
Losses for different level of earthquake

136
Αύξηση του κόστους αποκατάστασης τα επίπεδα βλαβών D3+D4
για όλα τα κτίρια ανάλογα με το μέγεθος του σεισμού σε
εκατομμύρια ευρώ.
10
60
110
160
210
5.8 6 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7 7.2
€ x106

137
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
αρθιθμός
τραυματιών
S3+S4
Τραυματίες S3+S4 (άμεσα σε κίνδυνο τη ζωή, αν δεν αντιμετωπιστούν
γρήγορα και ακαριαίος θάνατος ή θανάσιμος τραυματισμός για όλα τα
επίπεδα βλαβών και για όλα τα κτίρια

138
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
P[DS/SD]
With
intervantions
Μ3wL
IM
Initial
Μ3wL
e.x. specrum acc. 0.41g without
intervention to 0.55 g with intervention
Innervation : Addition of diaphragm at roof
level of masonry and extra chainages
Cost: 12000 Euro/masonry building
Total cost: 18 million Euro
Loss estimations after retrofit pf masonry
Savings: 25 million € for an earthquake of magnitude Mw=6
53 million € for an earthquake of magnitude Mw=7

12/31/2023 139
12/31/2023 139
12/31/2023 139
Design of structures
for natural hazards

12/31/2023 140
12/31/2023 140
12/31/2023 140
for MULTI -hazards
Earthquake and
landslide

12/31/2023 141
12/31/2023 141
12/31/2023 141
for MULTI -hazards
Earthquake and
rocks fallen

12/31/2023 142
12/31/2023 142
12/31/2023 142
for MULTI -hazards
Earthquake and
fair

12/31/2023 143
12/31/2023 143
12/31/2023 143
for MULTI -hazards
Earthquake and
infrastructures

12/31/2023 144
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12/31/2023 144
for natural hazards

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