Naea 12-13

KCM Divided into
Three Sections

“We expect single-family
home sales and housing
starts to be at the highest
level since 2007.”

Frank E. Nothaft
Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

2012 4Q

2013 1Q

2013 2Q

2013 3Q

Year-over-Year Price Changes by State

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

DISTRESSED PROPERTIES
Months Supply

CoreLogic11/2013

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

Sustainability of Current Price Increases

Fitch Ratings11/2013

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area

Month-Over-Month

Metropolitan Area

Month-Over-Month

Atlanta

.5%

Miami

.8%

Boston

.5%

Minneapolis

.8%

Charlotte

-.2%

New York

.6%

Chicago

.3%

Phoenix

1.2%

Cleveland

.3%

Portland

.7%

Dallas

.2%

San Diego

.9%

Denver

.2%

San Francisco

.8%

Detroit

1.5%

Seattle

.3%

Las Vegas

1.3%

Tampa

.2%

Los Angeles

1.1%

Washington

.4%

"The conditions that led to the robust appreciation
experienced earlier this year, including historically
low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low
inventory and high demand, are waning. In their
place, we're beginning to see more inventory and
rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further
normalization in the market going forward."

Dr. Stan Humphries
Zillow Chief Economist

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

NAR 11/2013

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
5%
1.8%

0.9%

0%
-5%

-5%

-7.6%

-6.2%

-10%
-14%
-15%

-13%

-16.8%
-20.8%

-20%
-24%
-25%
%

January February
-24%

-20.8%

March

April

May

June

July

August

Sept

October

-16.8%

-14%

-13%

-7.6%

-5%

-6.2%

1.8%

0.9%

NAR 11/2013

"All those young people who moved in
with their parents over the past few
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
years and didn't move out during the
recession, there should be pent-up
demand for household formation."

Jed Kolko
Trulia’s Chief Economist

“We believe millennials will
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
follow every generation that
preceded them, buying homes
once their economic situation
improves.”

Joseph Snider
VP and senior credit officer at Moody’s

121M
Current Households
in the United States
Projected Growth over
the Next 3 Years

3.7%
Number of Additional
Households Formed

4.48M
Urban Land Institute 11/2013

ta·per
ˈtāpər/
Verb – to diminish
or reduce

A government stimulus
package…
for the
HOUSING
INDUSTRY

“Although the consensus is the
Affordability is still good compared to 2014 to 50 years.
Fed will wait untilany time over the last start
to taper asset purchases,
December is still possible.”

Bill McBride
Calculated Risk

2013
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates

Federal Reserve 11/2013

Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst

Projected Rate
4Q 2014

Fannie Mae

4.8%
5.3%
5.0%
5.3%

National Assoc of Realtors
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Bankers Assoc

The Cost of Waiting
Mortgage

Interest Rate

Payment (P&I)

$250,000

4.3%

1,237.18

Next Year $250,000

5.3%

1,388.26

Today

Monthly Difference

$161.08

www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/onthego

Re-up all of your existing listings

List EVERY expired
listing in January

Where Buyers Found the Home They Purchased
by percentages

50
45
40

Newspaper

Yard Sign

Internet

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NAR 11/2013

eGuides Available
eGuides Available

5,500,000

Existing Home Sales

5,000,000

4,500,000

4,000,000


Pending Home Sales

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 11/2013

RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – November 2013

65.7

47
29.5
3

Dow
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

S&P

NASDAQ

Real Estate

30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage History
January 2012 – November 2013

Federal Reserve 11/2013

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

4.0

NAR 11/2013

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%

14%

NAR 11/2013

On Average

14,027

NAR’s November
Existing Home
Sales Report

Homes Sell
SALES

EVERY DAY!

UP 6%

INVENTORY

over last year

PRICES

UP 12.8%
over last year

UP .9%
over last year

88

%

Where Do Buyers
Find a Home?

92

%

of all buyers search online
during home buying process

of all buyers purchased a
home through an agent

%

28

of all buyers look to
print newspaper ads

45

40

35

Where Buyers Find the
Home They Purchase
Over the Last 10 Years
by percentage

30

*NAR 11/2013

The Internet

25

20

15

10

Yard Signs

5

Newspapers
0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers

Resources
Slide

Slide Title

Link

5

Frank Nothaft Quote

http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_outlook.pdf

7

Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region

http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf

8

FHFA Maps

http://www.fhfa.gov/

9

Days on Market

http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=396

10

Year-over-Year Change by State

http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf

11

Distressed Properties

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx

12

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

13

Sustainability of Current Price Increases

14


15

Dr. Stan Humphries Quote

17

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

19

Jed Kolko Quote

http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Fitch%20-%20Housing%

http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24

www.realtor.org

http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sns-201311091600--tms--realestmctnig-a20131115-2

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Resources
Slide

Slide Title

20

Joseph Snider Quote

22

Emerging Trends in 2014

25

Bill McBride Quote

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflation-is.html

26

2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

28

Mortgage Rate Projections

Link

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/slow-household-formation-cyclical-like-all-things-real-estate-moodys

http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-20

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlo
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.p
df

34

Where Buyer Found the Home They Purchased

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/05/2013-profile-of-home-buyer-andsellers-technology-trends

39

Pending Home Sales

http://www.realtor.org/

40

Return on Investment

http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller

41

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History


42

Dr. Stan Humphries Quote

https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spiceassets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf


Resources
Slide

Slide Title

Link

44, 45

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale,
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

www.realtor.org

47

Distressed Properties

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx

48

Where Do Buyers Find a Home?

www.realtor.org

50

2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates



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