12. “Even recent interest rate increases and
higher taxes on some upper-income
earners didn’t slow the market, as many
had feared... Short of a war or stock
market crash, housing markets could
continue to surprise on the upside over
the next few years.”
Arch MI
17. “Home prices continue to rise across
the country…With expectations for
continued economic growth and
further employment gains, the current
run of rising prices is likely to continue.”
David M. Blitzer
Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committe
S&P Dow Jones Indices
18. “With ongoing job creation, wage
increases and rising household
formations, we can expect continued,
gradual strengthening on the housing
market in the coming months.”
Robert Dietz
NAHB Chief Economist
20. "First-time buyers continue to make up an
underperforming share of the market because there
are simply not enough homes for sale in their price
range.
Supply conditions improve in higher up price
brackets, which means those trading up should see
considerable interest in their home, as well as more
listings to choose from during their own search."
Elizabeth Mendenhal
NAR President
22. Luxury Home Market is in a
Balanced Market
New Single-Family Luxury Home Listings are
from February (8,719) to March (10,243)
UP 17.5%
* Luxury Market Threshold is $1M
23.
24. Frank Nothaft
CoreLogic Chief Economist
"Even though CoreLogic's national
home price index got to the same level
it was at the prior peak in April of 2006,
once you account for inflation over the
ensuing 11.5 years, values are still about
18% below where they were."
25. “The Debt Service Ratio for mortgages is
near the low for the last 38 years. This
ratio increased rapidly during the housing
bubble, and continued to increase until
2007. With falling interest rates, and less
mortgage debt, the mortgage ratio has
declined significantly.”
Calculated Risk
26. Household Debt Service Ratio for Mortgages
as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
1991 1Q
6.24%
1980 1Q
4.38%
1980 TODAY
2007 4Q
7.21%The Federal Reserve Board
TODAY
4.44%
Total quarterly required mortgage payments
divided by total quarterly disposable personal
income.
Housing
Bubble
1998 4Q
5.46%
The Fed
27. Richard Franks
Chief Credit Officer of FS Card
Over the last decade:
1) Real per-capita mortgage debt decreased 21%
2) Home equity revolving debt decreased 47%
3) Mortgage payments as a percentage of per-capita income
decreased by 36%
“Combined with historically low-interest rates, low
delinquency rates, and a relatively stable housing
market, there is little immediate cause for concern
regarding these numbers.”
31. Sam Khater
Freddie Mac Chief Economist
“Mortgage rates are now at their highest
level since the week of August 22, 2013.
Higher Treasury yields, driven by rising
commodity prices, more Treasury issuances
and the steady stream of solid economic
news, are behind the uptick in rates.”
33. 0.9%
4.4%
5.5% 5.6%
Below 3.0% 3.00 - 3.99% 4.00 - 4.99% 5.00 - 5.99%
Black Knight Financial
Homeowners With Low Mortgage Rates
Less Likely to Sell
% of all homes in each rate
bracket currently for sale
34. “Rising mortgage rates may convince some would-be
home sellers already locked in at very low mortgage rates
to decide not to list their home for sale and get a new
mortgage at a higher interest rate…Instead, they may
choose to remodel or otherwise make do. This
phenomenon, called ‘mortgage rate lock-in,’ has been
expected to materialize for several years.
This could have the effect of reducing inventory levels.”
Zillow
35. Mark Fleming
Chief Economist First American
“Many existing homeowners are ‘rate-locked.’ The
majority of existing homeowners have mortgages with
historically low rates and, now that rates are rising, they
are hesitant to sell their homes. They recognize that once
they sell and purchase a new home, they will have a
higher mortgage rate… As mortgage rates rise further,
more existing homeowners may become rate locked into
their existing homes.”
45. “Millennials pay a whopping
$92,600 in total rent by the time
they turn 30.”
“23% of millennials reported rising
rent as a trigger for their purchase.”
- Realtor.com
- Rentcafe.com
46. “Median rent across the country rose 2.8 percent
over the past year, the fastest pace of
appreciation since May 2016 according to…
‘Rental appreciation slowed between 2015 and
mid-2017, but is once again picking up steam,
reaccelerating over the past nine months,’ said
Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas.”
Zillow
47. “This month’s Home Price Index is great news for
homeowners who may be thinking of selling their
home, or using some of their equity.
Not only are owners’ and appraisers’ views of the
housing market getting closer together when looking
at the nation as a whole, but homeowners in many
major areas are building equity at a rapid pace.”
Bill Banfield
VP of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans
48. “A monthly increase in home values, after a stable
report last month, shows that demand for the few
available homes for sale ramped up in March.
The true test will be whether more homeowners
decide to take advantage of these their higher
home value and provide some much-needed
inventory for buyers.”
Bill Banfield
VP of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans
55. Existing Home Sales
in thousands
Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
56. Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
New Home Sales in thousands
57. Jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Census
New Home Sales
annualized in thousands
58. 5%
8%
27% 27%
17%
12%
4%
Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
Census
New Home Sales % of sales by price range
60. Census & NAR
364 366
516
503
612
656
561
580
512 507
475 472
361
375
502
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
Total Home Sales in thousands
61. January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018
100 = Historically Healthy Level
PENDING Home Sales
since 2014
NAR 5/2018
67. June 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
Year-Over-
Year
PRIC
E
CHANGE
S
Case
Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 5/2018
68. Jan
2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2015
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2016
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2017
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2018
Feb
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City Composite
S&P Case Shiller 5/2018
Case Shiller
74. 4.1
4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.4 3.4
3.6
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
NAR 5/2018
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR
SALE Last 12 Months
77. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
% -24 -20 -16 -14 -13 -7. -5% -6. 1.8 0.9 5.0 1.6 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6% 5.5 5.8 4.5 6% 5.2 5% -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7.
Year-over-Year
Inventory Levels
NAR 5/2018
90. Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed Rate
4.5
4.6
4.9
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
Where Are They
Going This Year?
2017 – Today
Actual
Interest Rates
Freddie Mac
92. Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a
report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit
Availability
93. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 March
2018
Housing
Bubble
Historic Data for the
MORTGAGE CREDIT
AVAILABILITY INDEX
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
MBA
94. 42 42
43 43 43
44 44
45
46
47
45
43
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Average Days To Close A Loan
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Last 12 Months
95. 722
723
724 724 724 724 724
722 722
721 721
722
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
FICO® Score Requirements
Last 12 months
97. Average FICO® Score
for Closed Purchase Loans
by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
722
752
677
708
All Loans Conventional FHA VA
98. 39
36
44 42
All Loans* Conventional FHA VA
Average Back End DTI
for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
99. Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4,55,56,60 Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://nar.realtor
5,20,53,54,
63, 65,66,
74-77
Existing Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
6-7, 52, 73,
81
Buyer & Seller Traffic, Maps
Average Days on Market
https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
8, 43 Homeownership Rate, Median Rent https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
9-10 Best Investment http://news.gallup.com/poll/233294/stocks-trail-real-estate-preferred-investment.aspx
11, 44 Survey of Consumer Expectations https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/housing.html#main
12, 29, ARCH MI Quote https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/HaMMR_Spring2018.pdf
14 Supply & Demand
http://showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
15, 16, 19 CoreLogic Home Price Index http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
17, 67 - 69
David Blitzer Quote, Case Shiller
Price Index
http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
18 Robert Dietz Quote https://www.nahb.org/en/news-and-publications/press-releases/2018/04/housing-starts-rise-1-point-9-percent-on-multifamily-surge.aspx
21 Distribution of Inventory http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-04-26-Inventory-at-Historic-Lows-Majority-of-Homes-for-Sale-are-at-the-High-End
22 Luxury Market Report http://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica_APR2018.pdf
24 Frank Nothaft Quote https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/housing-bubble-or-not-the-real-estate-market-is-in-trouble
100. Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
25 Calculated Risk Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/04/fed-q4-2017-household-debt-service.html
26 Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm
27 Richard Franks Quote http://dsnews.com/daily-dose/04-08-2018/the-debt-dilemma
28, 41-42
Urban Institute Credit Index,
Affordability Index
https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/housing-credit-availability-index;
https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/access-and-affordability-interactive-map-and-research-
3-barriers-homeownership
30, 31
Freddie Mac Interest Rates,
Sam Khater Quote
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms, http://freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/mortgage-rates-climb-to-highest-level-in-
over-four-otc-fmcc-gnw_2235980_001
33 Black Knight Rate Lock https://twitter.com/ARiquier/status/989192951824822272
34 Zillow Quote https://www.zillow.com/research/q4-2017-affordability-rising-rates-18978/
35 Mark Fleming Quote http://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-market-dynamics-fueling-the-great-housing-shortage
37-39 Affordability Index http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2018/04/25/february-2018-housing-affordability-index/
40 Zelman Report
https://www.zelmanassociates.com/member-portal/z-report-member-site/the-most-important-residential-construction-metric
(subscription required)
45 Millennials Renting Quotes
http://news.move.com/2018-03-30-Rising-Rents-Push-Millennials-to-Become-Homeowners
https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/apartment-search-2/money/millennials-spend-93000-on-rent-by-the-time-they-hit-30/
46 Zillow Rent Growth Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-03-22-Rent-Growth-Accelerating-at-Fastest-Pace-in-21-Months
47, 48, 71
Bill Banfield Quote,
Appraisal Challenge
https://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2018/04/10/homeowners-achieve-a-more-realistic-view-of-home-values/
49 Best Month to Sell https://public.tableau.com/profile/darenjblomquist#!/vizhome/shared/STBY4575N
101. Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
56-59, 78, 79 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
61, 62 Pending Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
82-84 Foot Traffic http://nar.realtor/
88 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/outlook/20180423_nothing_draws_a_crowd.html#Forecast
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_041618.pdf
https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Apr%202018.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-05-2018-us-economic-outlook-04-30-2018.pdf
92-93 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
94-98 Ellie Mae Report https://static.elliemae.com/pdf/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_FEBRUARY2018.pdf
102. Svenja Gudell
Zillow Chief Economist
"Getting pre-approved for a mortgage
and finding an agent you trust can go
a long way in helping buyers act quickly
once the right home does become
available in this otherwise tight and
stressful housing landscape."
nar.realtor
http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic
"Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of properties shown by a REALTOR®. Lockboxes made by SentriLock, LLC. are used in roughly a third of home showings across the nation. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future."
nar.realtor
http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic
"Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of properties shown by a REALTOR®. Lockboxes made by SentriLock, LLC. are used in roughly a third of home showings across the nation. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future."
nar.realtor
http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic
"Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of properties shown by a REALTOR®. Lockboxes made by SentriLock, LLC. are used in roughly a third of home showings across the nation. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future."