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MAY 2018
Census & NAR
364 366
516
361 375
502
January February March
2017 2018
Total Home Sales in thousands
4.5%
15.1%
17.3%
$500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% Change in Sales
year-over-year
NAR 5/2018
142
148
166.8
January February March
Showing Time
Buyer Traffic 2018
Showing Time
January February March
2017 2018
Buyer Traffic Year-over-Year
67.1
66.4
65.4
65 64.8
63.7 63.5 63.6
64.2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Homeownership Rates
in the U.S. for the 1st Quarter
Census
34%
26%
17%
15%
6%
Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds
America’s Choice of Best
Long Term Investment
Gallup 2018
19% 20%
25%
30% 31%
35% 34% 34%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Estate as America’s Choice for
Best Long Term Investment
Gallup 2018
23.6%
41.3%
24.5%
8.7%
1.9%
Very Good Somewhat Good Neither Good or Bad Somewhat Bad Very Bad
Is Buying Property
In Your Zip Code a
Good Investment?
64.9% 10.6%SCE Housing Report
“Even recent interest rate increases and
higher taxes on some upper-income
earners didn’t slow the market, as many
had feared... Short of a war or stock
market crash, housing markets could
continue to surprise on the upside over
the next few years.”
Arch MI
PRICES
7.3%
4.5%
3.7%
5.7%
-11.1%
-9.5%
-8.1%
-7.2%
Demand - Buyers Supply - Listings
DEC 2017 JAN 2018 FEB 2018
Year-over-Year Differences
Simply a Matter of Supply & Demand
MAR 2018
CoreLogic
Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
By State
CoreLogic
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in
PriceBy State
“Home prices continue to rise across
the country…With expectations for
continued economic growth and
further employment gains, the current
run of rising prices is likely to continue.”
David M. Blitzer
Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committe
S&P Dow Jones Indices
“With ongoing job creation, wage
increases and rising household
formations, we can expect continued,
gradual strengthening on the housing
market in the coming months.”
Robert Dietz
NAHB Chief Economist
9.3%
8.5%
7%
5.4%
Low Price Low-to-Middle Middle-to-Moderate High Price
Year-Over-Year Change in
Price
by Price Range
CoreLogic Home Price Index
"First-time buyers continue to make up an
underperforming share of the market because there
are simply not enough homes for sale in their price
range.
Supply conditions improve in higher up price
brackets, which means those trading up should see
considerable interest in their home, as well as more
listings to choose from during their own search."
Elizabeth Mendenhal
NAR President
Entry-Level
Homes
21.9%High-End
Homes
51.4% Trade-Up
Homes
26.7%
Distribution
of Current
Inventory
Zillow
Luxury Home Market is in a
Balanced Market
New Single-Family Luxury Home Listings are
from February (8,719) to March (10,243)
UP 17.5%
* Luxury Market Threshold is $1M
Frank Nothaft
CoreLogic Chief Economist
"Even though CoreLogic's national
home price index got to the same level
it was at the prior peak in April of 2006,
once you account for inflation over the
ensuing 11.5 years, values are still about
18% below where they were."
“The Debt Service Ratio for mortgages is
near the low for the last 38 years. This
ratio increased rapidly during the housing
bubble, and continued to increase until
2007. With falling interest rates, and less
mortgage debt, the mortgage ratio has
declined significantly.”
Calculated Risk
Household Debt Service Ratio for Mortgages
as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
1991 1Q
6.24%
1980 1Q
4.38%
1980 TODAY
2007 4Q
7.21%The Federal Reserve Board
TODAY
4.44%
Total quarterly required mortgage payments
divided by total quarterly disposable personal
income.
Housing
Bubble
1998 4Q
5.46%
The Fed
Richard Franks
Chief Credit Officer of FS Card
Over the last decade:
1) Real per-capita mortgage debt decreased 21%
2) Home equity revolving debt decreased 47%
3) Mortgage payments as a percentage of per-capita income
decreased by 36%
“Combined with historically low-interest rates, low
delinquency rates, and a relatively stable housing
market, there is little immediate cause for concern
regarding these numbers.”
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Product Risk
Borrower Risk
Default Risk taken by Mortgage Market
Urban Land Institute
HOUSING CREDIT
AVAILABILITY INDEXReasonable
Lending
Standards
Arch
Probability Home Prices Will Be Lower in 2 Years
3.80
3.90
4.00
4.10
4.20
4.30
4.40
4.50
4.60
1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
Sam Khater
Freddie Mac Chief Economist
“Mortgage rates are now at their highest
level since the week of August 22, 2013.
Higher Treasury yields, driven by rising
commodity prices, more Treasury issuances
and the steady stream of solid economic
news, are behind the uptick in rates.”
INTEREST RATE LOCK
0.9%
4.4%
5.5% 5.6%
Below 3.0% 3.00 - 3.99% 4.00 - 4.99% 5.00 - 5.99%
Black Knight Financial
Homeowners With Low Mortgage Rates
Less Likely to Sell
% of all homes in each rate
bracket currently for sale
“Rising mortgage rates may convince some would-be
home sellers already locked in at very low mortgage rates
to decide not to list their home for sale and get a new
mortgage at a higher interest rate…Instead, they may
choose to remodel or otherwise make do. This
phenomenon, called ‘mortgage rate lock-in,’ has been
expected to materialize for several years.
This could have the effect of reducing inventory levels.”
Zillow
Mark Fleming
Chief Economist First American
“Many existing homeowners are ‘rate-locked.’ The
majority of existing homeowners have mortgages with
historically low rates and, now that rates are rising, they
are hesitant to sell their homes. They recognize that once
they sell and purchase a new home, they will have a
higher mortgage rate… As mortgage rates rise further,
more existing homeowners may become rate locked into
their existing homes.”
HOUSING
Affordability
Housing Affordability Index
NAR
106
119.8
128.4 126.2
112
172.4
166
159.6
1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017 TODAY
Bubble
Bust
Recovery
1985 to Today
159.6
212.8
176.6
160.3
110
U.S. Midwest Northeast South West
NAR
Housing Affordability Index
$74,828 $74,561
$86,056
$68,390
$79,028
$71,231 $71,008
$80,647
$64,148
$74,486
U.S. Midwest Northeast South West
2018 2017
NAR
U.S. and Regional Incomes
99.3 98
109.5
79.3
87 89 89
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 -1999 2000-2003 2004-2007 2008-2017 2018 Estimated 2019 Estimated 2020 Estimated
Zelman & Assoc. Entry-Level Affordability Index
Favorable
Stretched
Z Report
Urban Institute
Affordability Index with 20% Down
Payment
Affordability Index with 3.5% Down
Payment
Urban Institute
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median Asking
Census
RENTsince 1988
19.2%
13.5%
67.3%
13.0%
10.3%
76.7%
28.9%
18.6%
52.6%
Prefer Renting Indifferent Prefer Owning
All Under 50 50 +
SCE Housing Report
Renters: Assuming you had the financial resources to do
so, would you like to OWN instead of RENT
your primary residence?
“Millennials pay a whopping
$92,600 in total rent by the time
they turn 30.”
“23% of millennials reported rising
rent as a trigger for their purchase.”
- Realtor.com
- Rentcafe.com
“Median rent across the country rose 2.8 percent
over the past year, the fastest pace of
appreciation since May 2016 according to…
‘Rental appreciation slowed between 2015 and
mid-2017, but is once again picking up steam,
reaccelerating over the past nine months,’ said
Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas.”
Zillow
“This month’s Home Price Index is great news for
homeowners who may be thinking of selling their
home, or using some of their equity.
Not only are owners’ and appraisers’ views of the
housing market getting closer together when looking
at the nation as a whole, but homeowners in many
major areas are building equity at a rapid pace.”
Bill Banfield
VP of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans
“A monthly increase in home values, after a stable
report last month, shows that demand for the few
available homes for sale ramped up in March.
The true test will be whether more homeowners
decide to take advantage of these their higher
home value and provide some much-needed
inventory for buyers.”
Bill Banfield
VP of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans
2.3%
3.4%
3.1%
3.4%
5.9% 5.8%
3.8%
4.2%
3.2%
1.6%
2.6%
1.6%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
ATTOM Data Solutions
When’s the Best Month to Sell Your Home?
Average % Sold Above Market Price
Average Days on the Market
By State
NAR
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Since January 2014
EXISTING
Home Sales
NAR 5/2018
-1.2%
-9.3%
-1.5%
0.4%
0.8%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTIN
GHome Sales
NAR 5/2018
South West
Existing Home Sales
in thousands
Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
New Home Sales in thousands
Jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Census
New Home Sales
annualized in thousands
5%
8%
27% 27%
17%
12%
4%
Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
Census
New Home Sales % of sales by price range
4.1
3.8
4.0
3.6
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.2 3.2
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.7
3.8
Census
New Homes Selling Fast
(median months from completion to sold)
Census & NAR
364 366
516
503
612
656
561
580
512 507
475 472
361
375
502
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
Total Home Sales in thousands
January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018
100 = Historically Healthy Level
PENDING Home Sales
since 2014
NAR 5/2018
-3.0%
-8.1%
-6.0%
-0.3%
-2.2%
U.S. Northeast Midwest West
PENDING
Home Sales
Year-Over-Year By Region
West
NAR 5/2018
South
Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Percentage of
Distressed
Property
Sales
35%
January 2012 - Today
4%
6%
NAR 5/2018
Home Prices
5.8%
3.3%
5.1%
5.7%
7.9%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTING HOME
PRICES
NAR 5/2018
-20.7%
-7.8%
4.7% 4.5%
15.1%
17.3%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -20.7% -7.8% 4.7% 4.5% 15.1% 17.3%
% Change in
Sales
from last year by Price Range
NAR 5/2018
June 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
Year-Over-
Year
PRIC
E
CHANGE
S
Case
Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 5/2018
Jan
2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2015
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2016
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2017
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2018
Feb
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City Composite
S&P Case Shiller 5/2018
Case Shiller
5.9%
5.8%
5.7%
5.6%
5.8% 5.8%
6.2%
6.3%
6.4%
6.3%
6.4%
6.3%
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City Composite
Case Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 5/2018
CoreLogic
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in
PriceBy State
-1.90 -1.93
-1.70
-1.55
-1.35
-1.14
-0.99
-0.67
-0.50
-0.60
-0.53
-0.36
-2
-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Quicken Loans
Appraiser Home Value Opinions
Compared to Homeowner Estimates
Last 12 Months
HOUSING
INVENTORY
NAR
Seller
TrafficBy
State
4.1
4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.4 3.4
3.6
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
NAR 5/2018
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR
SALE Last 12 Months
January
2011
January
2012
January
2013
January
2014
January
2015
January
2016
January
2017
January
2018
Months Inventory
of
HOMES FOR
SALE
2011 - Today
NAR 5/2018
-9.0%
-8.4%
-7.1%
-9.0%
-6.7%
-6.4%
-10.4%
-9.7%
-11.1%
-9.5%
-8.1%
-7.2%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
NAR 5/2018
HOUSING SUPPLY Year-
Over-Year
Last 12 Months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
% -24 -20 -16 -14 -13 -7. -5% -6. 1.8 0.9 5.0 1.6 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6% 5.5 5.8 4.5 6% 5.2 5% -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7.
Year-over-Year
Inventory Levels
NAR 5/2018
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.4 5.4
5.3
5.9
6.0
5.3
5.6
4.8
5.55.5
5.4
5.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2017 2018 Census
New Home Inventory
months supply
5.0
5.4 5.4
5.3
5.9
6.0
5.3
5.6
4.8
5.5 5.5
5.4
5.2
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar
Census
New Home Inventory
months supply
Last 12 Months
BUYER
DEMAND
NAR
Buyer
Traffic
By
State
Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 5/2018
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Foot Traffic
indicator of future sales
Last 12 Months
NAR 5/2018
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017
2018
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 5/2018
INTEREST
RATES
3.95
3.99
4.04
4.15
4.22
4.32
4.38
4.40
4.43
4.46
4.44 4.45 4.44
4.40
4.42
4.47
4.58
1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26
Freddie Mac 5/2018
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
30 Year Fixed
Rate Mortgages
from Freddie Mac
4.58
3.97
Freddie Mac 5/2018
Mortgage Rate Projections
5/2018
Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR
Average
of All Three
2018 2Q 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.50
2018 3Q 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.63
2018 4Q 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.73
2019 1Q 4.5 5.1 n/a 4.80
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
Rate 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed Rate
- Actual
- Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed Rate
4.5
4.6
4.9
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
Where Are They
Going This Year?
2017 – Today
Actual
Interest Rates
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Credit Availability
YES NO MAYBE
Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a
report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit
Availability
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 March
2018
Housing
Bubble
Historic Data for the
MORTGAGE CREDIT
AVAILABILITY INDEX
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
MBA
42 42
43 43 43
44 44
45
46
47
45
43
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Average Days To Close A Loan
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Last 12 Months
722
723
724 724 724 724 724
722 722
721 721
722
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
FICO® Score Requirements
Last 12 months
0.06% 0.7%
9.1%
19.6%
24.5%
33.6%
12.6%
500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+
FICO® Score
Distribution
53.2% All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average FICO® Score
for Closed Purchase Loans
by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
722
752
677
708
All Loans Conventional FHA VA
39
36
44 42
All Loans* Conventional FHA VA
Average Back End DTI
for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4,55,56,60 Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://nar.realtor
5,20,53,54,
63, 65,66,
74-77
Existing Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
6-7, 52, 73,
81
Buyer & Seller Traffic, Maps
Average Days on Market
https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
8, 43 Homeownership Rate, Median Rent https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
9-10 Best Investment http://news.gallup.com/poll/233294/stocks-trail-real-estate-preferred-investment.aspx
11, 44 Survey of Consumer Expectations https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/housing.html#main
12, 29, ARCH MI Quote https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/HaMMR_Spring2018.pdf
14 Supply & Demand
http://showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
15, 16, 19 CoreLogic Home Price Index http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
17, 67 - 69
David Blitzer Quote, Case Shiller
Price Index
http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
18 Robert Dietz Quote https://www.nahb.org/en/news-and-publications/press-releases/2018/04/housing-starts-rise-1-point-9-percent-on-multifamily-surge.aspx
21 Distribution of Inventory http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-04-26-Inventory-at-Historic-Lows-Majority-of-Homes-for-Sale-are-at-the-High-End
22 Luxury Market Report http://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica_APR2018.pdf
24 Frank Nothaft Quote https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/housing-bubble-or-not-the-real-estate-market-is-in-trouble
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
25 Calculated Risk Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/04/fed-q4-2017-household-debt-service.html
26 Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm
27 Richard Franks Quote http://dsnews.com/daily-dose/04-08-2018/the-debt-dilemma
28, 41-42
Urban Institute Credit Index,
Affordability Index
https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/housing-credit-availability-index;
https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/access-and-affordability-interactive-map-and-research-
3-barriers-homeownership
30, 31
Freddie Mac Interest Rates,
Sam Khater Quote
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms, http://freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/mortgage-rates-climb-to-highest-level-in-
over-four-otc-fmcc-gnw_2235980_001
33 Black Knight Rate Lock https://twitter.com/ARiquier/status/989192951824822272
34 Zillow Quote https://www.zillow.com/research/q4-2017-affordability-rising-rates-18978/
35 Mark Fleming Quote http://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-market-dynamics-fueling-the-great-housing-shortage
37-39 Affordability Index http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2018/04/25/february-2018-housing-affordability-index/
40 Zelman Report
https://www.zelmanassociates.com/member-portal/z-report-member-site/the-most-important-residential-construction-metric
(subscription required)
45 Millennials Renting Quotes
http://news.move.com/2018-03-30-Rising-Rents-Push-Millennials-to-Become-Homeowners
https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/apartment-search-2/money/millennials-spend-93000-on-rent-by-the-time-they-hit-30/
46 Zillow Rent Growth Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-03-22-Rent-Growth-Accelerating-at-Fastest-Pace-in-21-Months
47, 48, 71
Bill Banfield Quote,
Appraisal Challenge
https://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2018/04/10/homeowners-achieve-a-more-realistic-view-of-home-values/
49 Best Month to Sell https://public.tableau.com/profile/darenjblomquist#!/vizhome/shared/STBY4575N
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
56-59, 78, 79 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
61, 62 Pending Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
82-84 Foot Traffic http://nar.realtor/
88 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/outlook/20180423_nothing_draws_a_crowd.html#Forecast
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_041618.pdf
https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Apr%202018.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-05-2018-us-economic-outlook-04-30-2018.pdf
92-93 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
94-98 Ellie Mae Report https://static.elliemae.com/pdf/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_FEBRUARY2018.pdf
Svenja Gudell
Zillow Chief Economist
"Getting pre-approved for a mortgage
and finding an agent you trust can go
a long way in helping buyers act quickly
once the right home does become
available in this otherwise tight and
stressful housing landscape."
Seller & Buyer Guides – Summer Edition
MAY 2018

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Physician Loans USA

  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Census & NAR 364 366 516 361 375 502 January February March 2017 2018 Total Home Sales in thousands
  • 5. 4.5% 15.1% 17.3% $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % Change in Sales year-over-year NAR 5/2018
  • 7. Showing Time January February March 2017 2018 Buyer Traffic Year-over-Year
  • 8. 67.1 66.4 65.4 65 64.8 63.7 63.5 63.6 64.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Homeownership Rates in the U.S. for the 1st Quarter Census
  • 9. 34% 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds America’s Choice of Best Long Term Investment Gallup 2018
  • 10. 19% 20% 25% 30% 31% 35% 34% 34% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Estate as America’s Choice for Best Long Term Investment Gallup 2018
  • 11. 23.6% 41.3% 24.5% 8.7% 1.9% Very Good Somewhat Good Neither Good or Bad Somewhat Bad Very Bad Is Buying Property In Your Zip Code a Good Investment? 64.9% 10.6%SCE Housing Report
  • 12. “Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared... Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.” Arch MI
  • 14. 7.3% 4.5% 3.7% 5.7% -11.1% -9.5% -8.1% -7.2% Demand - Buyers Supply - Listings DEC 2017 JAN 2018 FEB 2018 Year-over-Year Differences Simply a Matter of Supply & Demand MAR 2018
  • 15. CoreLogic Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price By State
  • 16. CoreLogic Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in PriceBy State
  • 17. “Home prices continue to rise across the country…With expectations for continued economic growth and further employment gains, the current run of rising prices is likely to continue.” David M. Blitzer Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committe S&P Dow Jones Indices
  • 18. “With ongoing job creation, wage increases and rising household formations, we can expect continued, gradual strengthening on the housing market in the coming months.” Robert Dietz NAHB Chief Economist
  • 19. 9.3% 8.5% 7% 5.4% Low Price Low-to-Middle Middle-to-Moderate High Price Year-Over-Year Change in Price by Price Range CoreLogic Home Price Index
  • 20. "First-time buyers continue to make up an underperforming share of the market because there are simply not enough homes for sale in their price range. Supply conditions improve in higher up price brackets, which means those trading up should see considerable interest in their home, as well as more listings to choose from during their own search." Elizabeth Mendenhal NAR President
  • 22. Luxury Home Market is in a Balanced Market New Single-Family Luxury Home Listings are from February (8,719) to March (10,243) UP 17.5% * Luxury Market Threshold is $1M
  • 23.
  • 24. Frank Nothaft CoreLogic Chief Economist "Even though CoreLogic's national home price index got to the same level it was at the prior peak in April of 2006, once you account for inflation over the ensuing 11.5 years, values are still about 18% below where they were."
  • 25. “The Debt Service Ratio for mortgages is near the low for the last 38 years. This ratio increased rapidly during the housing bubble, and continued to increase until 2007. With falling interest rates, and less mortgage debt, the mortgage ratio has declined significantly.” Calculated Risk
  • 26. Household Debt Service Ratio for Mortgages as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income 1991 1Q 6.24% 1980 1Q 4.38% 1980 TODAY 2007 4Q 7.21%The Federal Reserve Board TODAY 4.44% Total quarterly required mortgage payments divided by total quarterly disposable personal income. Housing Bubble 1998 4Q 5.46% The Fed
  • 27. Richard Franks Chief Credit Officer of FS Card Over the last decade: 1) Real per-capita mortgage debt decreased 21% 2) Home equity revolving debt decreased 47% 3) Mortgage payments as a percentage of per-capita income decreased by 36% “Combined with historically low-interest rates, low delinquency rates, and a relatively stable housing market, there is little immediate cause for concern regarding these numbers.”
  • 28. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Product Risk Borrower Risk Default Risk taken by Mortgage Market Urban Land Institute HOUSING CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEXReasonable Lending Standards
  • 29. Arch Probability Home Prices Will Be Lower in 2 Years
  • 30. 3.80 3.90 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.60 1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26 Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
  • 31. Sam Khater Freddie Mac Chief Economist “Mortgage rates are now at their highest level since the week of August 22, 2013. Higher Treasury yields, driven by rising commodity prices, more Treasury issuances and the steady stream of solid economic news, are behind the uptick in rates.”
  • 33. 0.9% 4.4% 5.5% 5.6% Below 3.0% 3.00 - 3.99% 4.00 - 4.99% 5.00 - 5.99% Black Knight Financial Homeowners With Low Mortgage Rates Less Likely to Sell % of all homes in each rate bracket currently for sale
  • 34. “Rising mortgage rates may convince some would-be home sellers already locked in at very low mortgage rates to decide not to list their home for sale and get a new mortgage at a higher interest rate…Instead, they may choose to remodel or otherwise make do. This phenomenon, called ‘mortgage rate lock-in,’ has been expected to materialize for several years. This could have the effect of reducing inventory levels.” Zillow
  • 35. Mark Fleming Chief Economist First American “Many existing homeowners are ‘rate-locked.’ The majority of existing homeowners have mortgages with historically low rates and, now that rates are rising, they are hesitant to sell their homes. They recognize that once they sell and purchase a new home, they will have a higher mortgage rate… As mortgage rates rise further, more existing homeowners may become rate locked into their existing homes.”
  • 37. Housing Affordability Index NAR 106 119.8 128.4 126.2 112 172.4 166 159.6 1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017 TODAY Bubble Bust Recovery 1985 to Today
  • 38. 159.6 212.8 176.6 160.3 110 U.S. Midwest Northeast South West NAR Housing Affordability Index
  • 39. $74,828 $74,561 $86,056 $68,390 $79,028 $71,231 $71,008 $80,647 $64,148 $74,486 U.S. Midwest Northeast South West 2018 2017 NAR U.S. and Regional Incomes
  • 40. 99.3 98 109.5 79.3 87 89 89 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1990 -1999 2000-2003 2004-2007 2008-2017 2018 Estimated 2019 Estimated 2020 Estimated Zelman & Assoc. Entry-Level Affordability Index Favorable Stretched Z Report
  • 41. Urban Institute Affordability Index with 20% Down Payment
  • 42. Affordability Index with 3.5% Down Payment Urban Institute
  • 43. 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Median Asking Census RENTsince 1988
  • 44. 19.2% 13.5% 67.3% 13.0% 10.3% 76.7% 28.9% 18.6% 52.6% Prefer Renting Indifferent Prefer Owning All Under 50 50 + SCE Housing Report Renters: Assuming you had the financial resources to do so, would you like to OWN instead of RENT your primary residence?
  • 45. “Millennials pay a whopping $92,600 in total rent by the time they turn 30.” “23% of millennials reported rising rent as a trigger for their purchase.” - Realtor.com - Rentcafe.com
  • 46. “Median rent across the country rose 2.8 percent over the past year, the fastest pace of appreciation since May 2016 according to… ‘Rental appreciation slowed between 2015 and mid-2017, but is once again picking up steam, reaccelerating over the past nine months,’ said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas.” Zillow
  • 47. “This month’s Home Price Index is great news for homeowners who may be thinking of selling their home, or using some of their equity. Not only are owners’ and appraisers’ views of the housing market getting closer together when looking at the nation as a whole, but homeowners in many major areas are building equity at a rapid pace.” Bill Banfield VP of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans
  • 48. “A monthly increase in home values, after a stable report last month, shows that demand for the few available homes for sale ramped up in March. The true test will be whether more homeowners decide to take advantage of these their higher home value and provide some much-needed inventory for buyers.” Bill Banfield VP of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans
  • 49. 2.3% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 5.9% 5.8% 3.8% 4.2% 3.2% 1.6% 2.6% 1.6% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ATTOM Data Solutions When’s the Best Month to Sell Your Home? Average % Sold Above Market Price
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. Average Days on the Market By State NAR
  • 53. Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Since January 2014 EXISTING Home Sales NAR 5/2018
  • 54. -1.2% -9.3% -1.5% 0.4% 0.8% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Y-O-Y by region EXISTIN GHome Sales NAR 5/2018 South West
  • 55. Existing Home Sales in thousands Census & NAR January February March April May June July August September October November December 2017 2018
  • 56. Census & NAR January February March April May June July August September October November December 2017 2018 New Home Sales in thousands
  • 57. Jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Census New Home Sales annualized in thousands
  • 58. 5% 8% 27% 27% 17% 12% 4% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Census New Home Sales % of sales by price range
  • 60. Census & NAR 364 366 516 503 612 656 561 580 512 507 475 472 361 375 502 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2017 2018 Total Home Sales in thousands
  • 61. January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 100 = Historically Healthy Level PENDING Home Sales since 2014 NAR 5/2018
  • 62. -3.0% -8.1% -6.0% -0.3% -2.2% U.S. Northeast Midwest West PENDING Home Sales Year-Over-Year By Region West NAR 5/2018 South
  • 63. Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% January 2012 - Today 4% 6% NAR 5/2018
  • 65. 5.8% 3.3% 5.1% 5.7% 7.9% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Y-O-Y by region EXISTING HOME PRICES NAR 5/2018
  • 66. -20.7% -7.8% 4.7% 4.5% 15.1% 17.3% $0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % -20.7% -7.8% 4.7% 4.5% 15.1% 17.3% % Change in Sales from last year by Price Range NAR 5/2018
  • 67. June 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Year-Over- Year PRIC E CHANGE S Case Shiller S&P Case Shiller 5/2018
  • 68. Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite S&P Case Shiller 5/2018 Case Shiller
  • 69. 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8% 5.8% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.3% 6.4% 6.3% Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite Case Shiller S&P Case Shiller 5/2018
  • 70. CoreLogic Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in PriceBy State
  • 71. -1.90 -1.93 -1.70 -1.55 -1.35 -1.14 -0.99 -0.67 -0.50 -0.60 -0.53 -0.36 -2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Quicken Loans Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates Last 12 Months
  • 74. 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAR 5/2018 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE Last 12 Months
  • 76. -9.0% -8.4% -7.1% -9.0% -6.7% -6.4% -10.4% -9.7% -11.1% -9.5% -8.1% -7.2% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAR 5/2018 HOUSING SUPPLY Year- Over-Year Last 12 Months
  • 77. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar % -24 -20 -16 -14 -13 -7. -5% -6. 1.8 0.9 5.0 1.6 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6% 5.5 5.8 4.5 6% 5.2 5% -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7. Year-over-Year Inventory Levels NAR 5/2018
  • 78. 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.9 6.0 5.3 5.6 4.8 5.55.5 5.4 5.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 Census New Home Inventory months supply
  • 79. 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.9 6.0 5.3 5.6 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Census New Home Inventory months supply Last 12 Months
  • 82. Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Foot Trafficindicator of future sales NAR 5/2018
  • 83. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Foot Traffic indicator of future sales Last 12 Months NAR 5/2018
  • 84. January February March April May June July August September October November December 2017 2018 Foot Trafficindicator of future sales NAR 5/2018
  • 86. 3.95 3.99 4.04 4.15 4.22 4.32 4.38 4.40 4.43 4.46 4.44 4.45 4.44 4.40 4.42 4.47 4.58 1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26 Freddie Mac 5/2018 Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
  • 87. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac 4.58 3.97 Freddie Mac 5/2018
  • 88. Mortgage Rate Projections 5/2018 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2018 2Q 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.50 2018 3Q 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.63 2018 4Q 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.73 2019 1Q 4.5 5.1 n/a 4.80
  • 89. 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 Rate 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate - Actual - Projected 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 90. Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate 4.5 4.6 4.9 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 Where Are They Going This Year? 2017 – Today Actual Interest Rates Freddie Mac
  • 92. Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Credit Availability
  • 93. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 March 2018 Housing Bubble Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX (a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association) MBA
  • 94. 42 42 43 43 43 44 44 45 46 47 45 43 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Average Days To Close A Loan All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae Last 12 Months
  • 95. 722 723 724 724 724 724 724 722 722 721 721 722 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae FICO® Score Requirements Last 12 months
  • 96. 0.06% 0.7% 9.1% 19.6% 24.5% 33.6% 12.6% 500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+ FICO® Score Distribution 53.2% All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
  • 97. Average FICO® Score for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae 722 752 677 708 All Loans Conventional FHA VA
  • 98. 39 36 44 42 All Loans* Conventional FHA VA Average Back End DTI for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
  • 99. Resources KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM Slide Slide Title Link 4,55,56,60 Total Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://nar.realtor 5,20,53,54, 63, 65,66, 74-77 Existing Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/ 6-7, 52, 73, 81 Buyer & Seller Traffic, Maps Average Days on Market https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index 8, 43 Homeownership Rate, Median Rent https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf 9-10 Best Investment http://news.gallup.com/poll/233294/stocks-trail-real-estate-preferred-investment.aspx 11, 44 Survey of Consumer Expectations https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/housing.html#main 12, 29, ARCH MI Quote https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/HaMMR_Spring2018.pdf 14 Supply & Demand http://showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales 15, 16, 19 CoreLogic Home Price Index http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx 17, 67 - 69 David Blitzer Quote, Case Shiller Price Index http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index 18 Robert Dietz Quote https://www.nahb.org/en/news-and-publications/press-releases/2018/04/housing-starts-rise-1-point-9-percent-on-multifamily-surge.aspx 21 Distribution of Inventory http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-04-26-Inventory-at-Historic-Lows-Majority-of-Homes-for-Sale-are-at-the-High-End 22 Luxury Market Report http://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica_APR2018.pdf 24 Frank Nothaft Quote https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/housing-bubble-or-not-the-real-estate-market-is-in-trouble
  • 100. Resources KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM Slide Slide Title Link 25 Calculated Risk Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/04/fed-q4-2017-household-debt-service.html 26 Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm 27 Richard Franks Quote http://dsnews.com/daily-dose/04-08-2018/the-debt-dilemma 28, 41-42 Urban Institute Credit Index, Affordability Index https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/housing-credit-availability-index; https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/access-and-affordability-interactive-map-and-research- 3-barriers-homeownership 30, 31 Freddie Mac Interest Rates, Sam Khater Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms, http://freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/mortgage-rates-climb-to-highest-level-in- over-four-otc-fmcc-gnw_2235980_001 33 Black Knight Rate Lock https://twitter.com/ARiquier/status/989192951824822272 34 Zillow Quote https://www.zillow.com/research/q4-2017-affordability-rising-rates-18978/ 35 Mark Fleming Quote http://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-market-dynamics-fueling-the-great-housing-shortage 37-39 Affordability Index http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2018/04/25/february-2018-housing-affordability-index/ 40 Zelman Report https://www.zelmanassociates.com/member-portal/z-report-member-site/the-most-important-residential-construction-metric (subscription required) 45 Millennials Renting Quotes http://news.move.com/2018-03-30-Rising-Rents-Push-Millennials-to-Become-Homeowners https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/apartment-search-2/money/millennials-spend-93000-on-rent-by-the-time-they-hit-30/ 46 Zillow Rent Growth Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-03-22-Rent-Growth-Accelerating-at-Fastest-Pace-in-21-Months 47, 48, 71 Bill Banfield Quote, Appraisal Challenge https://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2018/04/10/homeowners-achieve-a-more-realistic-view-of-home-values/ 49 Best Month to Sell https://public.tableau.com/profile/darenjblomquist#!/vizhome/shared/STBY4575N
  • 101. Resources KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM Slide Slide Title Link 56-59, 78, 79 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf 61, 62 Pending Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/ 82-84 Foot Traffic http://nar.realtor/ 88 Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/research/outlook/20180423_nothing_draws_a_crowd.html#Forecast http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_041618.pdf https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Apr%202018.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-05-2018-us-economic-outlook-04-30-2018.pdf 92-93 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index 94-98 Ellie Mae Report https://static.elliemae.com/pdf/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_FEBRUARY2018.pdf
  • 102. Svenja Gudell Zillow Chief Economist "Getting pre-approved for a mortgage and finding an agent you trust can go a long way in helping buyers act quickly once the right home does become available in this otherwise tight and stressful housing landscape."
  • 103. Seller & Buyer Guides – Summer Edition

Editor's Notes

  1. http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://nar.realtor
  2. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  3. http://showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index
  4. http://showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index
  5. https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
  6. http://news.gallup.com/poll/233294/stocks-trail-real-estate-preferred-investment.aspx
  7. http://news.gallup.com/poll/233294/stocks-trail-real-estate-preferred-investment.aspx
  8. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/housing.html#main
  9. https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/HaMMR_Spring2018.pdf
  10. http://showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  11. http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
  12. http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
  13. https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/696953_cshomeprice-release-0424.pdf?force_download=true
  14. https://www.nahb.org/en/news-and-publications/press-releases/2018/04/housing-starts-rise-1-point-9-percent-on-multifamily-surge.aspx
  15. http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
  16. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-climb-11-percent-in-march
  17. http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-04-26-Inventory-at-Historic-Lows-Majority-of-Homes-for-Sale-are-at-the-High-End
  18. http://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica_APR2018.pdf
  19. https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/housing-bubble-or-not-the-real-estate-market-is-in-trouble
  20. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/04/fed-q4-2017-household-debt-service.html
  21. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm
  22. http://dsnews.com/daily-dose/04-08-2018/the-debt-dilemma
  23. https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/housing-credit-availability-index
  24. https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/HaMMR_Spring2018.pdf
  25. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  26. http://freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/mortgage-rates-climb-to-highest-level-in-over-four-otc-fmcc-gnw_2235980_001
  27. https://www.nar.realtor/news-releases/2016/12/home-sales-expected-to-expand-modestly-in-2017-as-affordability-pressures-temper-buyer-enthusiasm
  28. https://twitter.com/ARiquier/status/989192951824822272
  29. https://www.zillow.com/research/q4-2017-affordability-rising-rates-18978/
  30. http://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-market-dynamics-fueling-the-great-housing-shortage
  31. realor.org
  32. Nar.realtor
  33. http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2018/04/25/february-2018-housing-affordability-index/
  34. http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2018/04/25/february-2018-housing-affordability-index/
  35. https://www.zelmanassociates.com/member-portal/z-report-member-site/the-most-important-residential-construction-metric (subscription required)
  36. https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/access-and-affordability-interactive-map-and-research-3-barriers-homeownership
  37. https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housing-finance-policy-center/projects/access-and-affordability-interactive-map-and-research-3-barriers-homeownership
  38. http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
  39. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/housing.html#main
  40. http://news.move.com/2018-03-30-Rising-Rents-Push-Millennials-to-Become-Homeowners https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/apartment-search-2/money/millennials-spend-93000-on-rent-by-the-time-they-hit-30/
  41. http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-03-22-Rent-Growth-Accelerating-at-Fastest-Pace-in-21-Months
  42. https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
  43. https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
  44. https://public.tableau.com/profile/darenjblomquist#!/vizhome/shared/STBY4575N
  45. https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
  46. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  47. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  48. http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://nar.realtor
  49. http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://nar.realtor
  50. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  51. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  52. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  53. http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://nar.realtor
  54. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-move-up-04-percent-in-march
  55. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-move-up-04-percent-in-march
  56. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  57. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  58. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  59. http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
  60. http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
  61. http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
  62. http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
  63. https://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2018/04/10/homeowners-achieve-a-more-realistic-view-of-home-values/
  64. https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
  65. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  66. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  67. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  68. nar.realtor https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
  69. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  70. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  71. https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
  72. nar.realtor http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic "Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of properties shown by a REALTOR®. Lockboxes made by SentriLock, LLC. are used in roughly a third of home showings across the nation. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future."
  73. nar.realtor http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic "Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of properties shown by a REALTOR®. Lockboxes made by SentriLock, LLC. are used in roughly a third of home showings across the nation. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future."
  74. nar.realtor http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic "Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of properties shown by a REALTOR®. Lockboxes made by SentriLock, LLC. are used in roughly a third of home showings across the nation. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future."
  75. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
  76. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
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