4. Pending Home Sales
110
105
100 = Historically Healthy Level
100
January 2012 – January 2013
95
90
85
January 2011 – January 2012
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
NAR 2/2013
5. New Home
SALES
January 2013 Sales
+28.9%
+15.6%
Compared to Compared to
December 2012 January 2012
Census 3/1/2013
6. “While gross domestic product is
expected to be negatively impacted by
all the uncertainty surrounding the
nation's impending debt ceiling debate
and the risk of sequestration, the
housing sector is expected to continue
its upward trajectory, the National
Association for Business
Economics (NABE) said.”
Political
Uncertainty
Housing Wire 2/25/2013
7. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
5.0
4.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
NAR 2/2013
8. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
2011
7.0
6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
2012
1.0
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
NAR 2/2013
9. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
7.0
6.0
5-6 Months = Normal Market
5.0
< 4 Months = Sellers’ Market
4.0
3.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
NAR 2/2013
20. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
8.0%
Year-over-Year Change in Prices 6.8%
6.0% 5.5%
4.3%
4.0% 3.6%
2.0%
2.0%
1.1%
0.6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
0.0%
-0.5% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-2.0%
-1.7%
-2.5%
-4.0% -3.5%
-3.9%
-6.0%
S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
22. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Atlanta 9.9% Miami 10.6%
Boston 3.6% Minneapolis 12.2%
Charlotte 5.3% New York -0.5
Chicago 2.2% Phoenix 23.0%
Cleveland 2.9% Portland 6.5%
Dallas 6.5% San Diego 9.2%
Denver 8.5% San Francisco 14.4%
Detroit 13.6% Seattle 8.2%
Las Vegas 12.9% Tampa 7.2%
Los Angeles 10.2% Washington 5.9%
S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
23. Home Prices in the Short Term
150.00
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13 PROJECTED?
145.00
140.00
135.00
130.00
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
24. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area M-o-M Metropolitan Area M-o-M
Atlanta 0.3 Miami 0.8
Boston 0.1 Minneapolis -0.1
Charlotte -0.4 New York -0.4
Chicago -0.7 Phoenix 0.9
Cleveland -0.1 Portland -0.5
Dallas -0.1 San Diego 0.4
Denver -0.3 San Francisco 0.7
Detroit -0.6 Seattle -0.5
Las Vegas 1.8 Tampa 0.2
Los Angeles 1.1 Washington -0.1
S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
25. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
5.25
5
4.75
4.5
2/2011 – 3/2013
4.25
4
3.75
3.5
3.25
Federal Reserve 3/1/2013
26. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
“After reaching record lows in 2012,
mortgage rates are expected to creep up
slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers
Association (MBA)predicted.”
The MBA projects
30 year mortgage rates
will hit 4.4% by the end
of the year.
MarketWatch 10/24/2012
27. Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed
3.6
12/01/2012 – 3/1/2013
3.55
3.5
3.45
3.4
3.35
3.3
Freddie Mac 3/1/2013
29. Bernanke on Interest Rates
“If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
anticipates, the economic recovery continues at a moderate
pace, with unemployment slowly declining and inflation
expectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-term
interest rates would be expected to rise gradually
toward more normal levels over the next several years…
The precise timing and pace of the
increase will depend importantly on how
economic conditions develop, however,
and is subject to considerable two-sided
uncertainty.”
Federal Reserve 3/1/2013
30. Housing America’s Future:
New Directions for National Policy
“The report proposed a reformed system of housing finance
in which the private sector plays a far more prominent role in
bearing credit risk while promoting a greater diversity of
funding sources available for mortgage financing.
The problems we face in housing are so
significant and so urgent today that inaction
is no longer a viable option… It is therefore
the commission’s hope that 2013 will be the
year that Congress and the administration
finally elevate housing to the top of the
national policy agenda and give housing
the dedicated attention it deserves.”
Bipartisan Policy Center 3/1/2013
31. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
35%
30%
25%
23%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
NAR 2/2013
32. Shadow Inventory
“Shadow inventory never hit full force, so now I think
we’re at a point where the pendulum has swung
completely the other way and the housing market
needs more inventory, so 2013 would be a
serendipitous time for banks to release that inventory.”
Daren Blomquist, VP of RealtyTrac
He expects 600,000 REOs in
2013 and short sales to exceed
the 2012 number, which will
likely be around 1 million.
DSNews 2/22/2013
33. FORECLOSURES
CNN Money 2013
100 hardest hit zips in 2012
35. Short Sales Moving Forward
“Short sales don’t seem to be going away anytime
soon...I think 2013 and 2014 are going to be all
about the short sale.”
Wingspan Portfolio Advisors CEO Steven Horne
“I think we’re going to set a new
record for short sales in 2013.”
Rick Sharga, EVP of Carrington Mortgage
HousingWire 2/21/2013
38. How are you preparing for real
estate’s new market reality?
FREE WEBINAR
www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/newmarketreality
39. Building Trust is Important
“Weary of misinformation, people
are making integrity a new form of
competitive advantage…
More important than ever to building
brand equity and differentiation, trust
has become a precious commodity.”
Ford 2013
40. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
3,4,7,8, Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventory of
http://www.realtor.org
9 Homes for Sale
5 New Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/02/25/nabe-economic-uncertainties-remain-one-
6 Political Uncertainty
exception
10 Existing Home Inventory www.calculatedriskblog.com
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/new-home-sales-at-437000-saar-in-
11 New Home Inventory
january.html
18 FHFA State Home Prices http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25010/2012Q4HPI.pdf
19,21, S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, Home
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=12
23,24, Prices in the Short Term, Year Over Year Price
45347994966
25 Increases
http://www.lpsvcs.com/Products/CapitalMarkets/PredictiveModeling/Pages/LPSHomePri
21 Year Over Year Price Increases ceIndex.aspx, http://www.lpsvcs.com/Products/CapitalMarkets/PredictiveModeling/
Pages/LPSHomePriceIndex.aspx
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History,
25, 27 http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward, Impact of http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-
26, 28
Increasing Rates 10-24
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
41. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
29 Bernake on Interest Rates http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130301a.htm
30 Housing America’s Future http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/BPC_Housing%20Report_web.pdf
31 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/lack-of-inventory-not-shadow-is-real-concern-2013-02-
32 Shadow Inventory
22
33 Foreclosures http://money.cnn.com/interactive/real-estate/foreclosure-rate/2013/
http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-
34 Largest Foreclosure Inventory
january-2013.pdf
http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/02/21/mba-servicing-short-sales-stay-popular-
35 Short Sales Moving Forward
next-two-years
39 Building Trust is Important http://media.ford.com/images/10031/fordtrendbook2013.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
