California home sales to increase slightly, while prices post slowest gain in five years. California’s housing market will continue to improve into 2016, but a shortage of homes on the market and a crimp in housing affordability also will persist, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2016 California Housing Market Forecast”.

1. The Real Estate Report
lead the nation in economic and job growth,” said
C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie
Appleton-Young. “However, the global economic
slowdown, financial market volatility, and the
anticipation of higher interest rates are some of the
challenges that may have an adverse impact on
the market’s momentum next year. Additionally, as
we see more sales shift to inland regions of the
state, the change in mix of sales will keep
increases in the statewide median price tempered.”
California home sales to increase slightly, while
prices post slowest gain in five years.
California’s housing market will continue to improve
into 2016, but a shortage of homes on the market
and a crimp in housing affordability also will persist,
according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2016 California Housing
Market Forecast”.
The C.A.R. forecast sees an increase in existing
home sales of 6.3 percent next year to reach
433,000 units, up from the projected 2015 sales
figure of 407,500 homes sold. Sales in 2015 also
will be up 6.3 percent from the 383,300 existing,
single-family homes sold in 2014.
“Solid job growth and favorable interest rates will
drive a strong demand for housing next year,” said
C.A.R. President Chris Kutzkey. “However, in
regions where inventory is tight, such as the San
Francisco Bay Area, sales growth could be limited
by stiff market competition and diminishing housing
affordability. On the other hand, demand in less
expensive areas such as Solano County, the
Central Valley, and Riverside/San Bernardino
areas will remain strong thanks to solid job growth
in warehousing, transportation, logistics, and
manufacturing in these areas.”
C.A.R.’s forecast projects growth in the U.S. Gross
Domestic Product of 2.7 percent in 2016, after a
projected gain of 2.4 percent in 2015. With
nonfarm job growth of 2.3 percent in California, the
state’s unemployment rate should decrease to 5.5
percent in 2016 from 6.3 percent in 2015 and 7.5
percent in 2014.
The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest
rates will rise only slightly to 4.5 percent but will still
remain at historically low levels.
The California median home price is forecast to
increase 3.2 percent to $491,300 in 2016, following
a projected 6.5 percent increase in 2015 to
$476,300. This is the slowest rate of price
appreciation in five years.
“The foundation for California’s housing market
remains strong, with moderating home prices,
signs of credit easing, and the state continuing to
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Annie Williams | AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com | Fax: (415) 202-1686
C.A.R. ‘s 2016 California Housing Market Forecast
Oct 15 Sep 15 Oct 14
Home Sales: 236 155 269
Median Price: 1,295,000$ 1,200,000$ 1,208,000$
Average Price: 1,639,751$ 1,414,877$ 1,686,754$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 110.7% 117.3% 110.6%
Days on Market: 25 25 29
Oct 15 Sep 15 Oct 14
Condo Sales: 231 171 309
Median Price: 1,110,000$ 1,075,000$ 955,000$
Average Price: 1,197,504$ 1,184,342$ 1,069,320$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 109.1% 107.7% 106.5%
Days on Market: 26 33 37
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change
© 2015 rereport.com
_____________________
VISIT
http://www.anniewilliamshomes.c
om
for a free on-line market analysis of
your property. You can also perform
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properties for sale.
Local Market Trends November/December 2015San Francisco
“However, in regions where in-
ventory is tight, such as the
San Francisco Bay Area, sales
growth could be limited by stiff
market competition and dimin-
ishing housing affordability.”

2. Home Prices Up in October
After reaching a new all-time high of $1,400,000 in
May, the median price for single-family, re-sale
homes in San Francisco slowly declined for the next
four months, hitting a low of $1,200,000 in Septem-
ber. It bounced up to $1,295,000 in October.
The median home price was lower than the year
before for the fortieth month in a row.
The median home price has stayed over $1MM for
seventeen of the past nineteen months.
The sales prices to list price ratio has been over
100% since March 2012. It has been over 110% for
the past seven months.
Lack of inventory is still problematic and may con-
tinue to power the San Francisco market upwards.
October Market Statistics
The median price for homes was up 7.2% year-over-
year. The average price was off 2.8% from last year.
Home sales bounced back from a weak start to the
year and were up 52.3% from September Compared
to last October, home sales were down 12.3%. Year-
to-date, home sales are down 5%.
Homes are also selling quickly, taking an average of
25 days.
Sales momentum…
for homes fell 2.8 points to –7.1. Sales momentum
for condos/lofts dropped 2.9 points to –16.7.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes was off 1.5 points to +13.7.
Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 0.3 of a point
to +14.
Condo/Loft Statistics
The median price was was up 35.1% from Septem-
ber. Year-over-year, the median price was up 16.2%.
Condo/loft sales were down 25.2% compared to last
October. Year-to-date, condo sales are down 15.3%.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for
the forty-third month in a row: 109.1%.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's
important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know
what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's
discuss your situation and your options.
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
01-08
04-08
07-08
10-08
01-09
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30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,295,000$ 1,639,751$ 236 25 110.7% 7.2% -2.8% -12.3% 7.9% 15.9% 52.3%
D1: Northwest 1,487,500$ 1,698,625$ 24 24 111.7% -8.1% -7.1% -14.3% -4.6% 4.9% 60.0%
D2: Central West 1,147,888$ 1,117,748$ 41 26 120.1% 21.7% 7.1% -4.7% -5.1% -11.6% 51.9%
D3: Southwest 1,052,500$ 1,092,929$ 18 28 113.5% 23.8% 23.2% 12.5% 15.0% 7.3% 63.6%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,615,150$ 1,677,447$ 37 19 110.5% 23.2% 14.7% 15.6% 9.1% 0.2% 117.6%
D5: Central 1,875,000$ 2,308,958$ 27 18 111.9% 0.7% -5.0% -28.9% -18.8% 10.0% 80.0%
D6: Central North 2,105,000$ 2,035,000$ 6 21 116.4% 4.0% -0.9% -14.3% 1.8% -1.6% 200.0%
D7: North 4,850,000$ 5,342,089$ 10 22 100.1% 17.3% 4.2% -50.0% -13.8% -5.0% 400.0%
D8: Northeast 7,445,000$ 7,445,000$ 2 98 96.7% 113.0% 186.9% -33.3% 254.5% 254.5% 100.0%
D9: Central East 1,400,000$ 1,459,363$ 27 18 117.0% 8.0% 8.1% -10.0% -5.9% -25.9% 58.8%
D10: Southeast 806,500$ 826,882$ 44 36 110.6% 9.5% 9.9% -15.4% 0.2% 2.3% -8.3%
October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2015 rereport.com
Annie Williams
http://www.anniewilliamshomes.co
m
Fax: (415) 202-1686
2 Local Market Trends | San Francisco |
Market Statistics
The chart above shows the National
monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mort-
gages as compiled by HSH.com. The aver-
age includes mortgages of all sizes, includ-
ing conforming, "expanded conforming,"
and jumbo.
November/December 2015

3. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of prices
were higher and 50% were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or the
price paid for the property divided
by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current rate
of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell that
hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number pf properties actively for
sale as of the last day of the month.
A comparative market analysis, or CMA, is a real estate agent's evalua-
tion, based on local listing and sales data, to determine the probable
sale price of a property in the current market. Sellers can use a CMA to
help determine a list price. Buyers can use a CMA to help them decide
what to offer on a listing they want to buy.
The accuracy of the analysis will depend in part on the quality of the
data. The listings used for comparison should ideally be located in the
neighborhood, and they should be as similar as possible to the subject
property.
To get a complete picture of your local marketplace, the CMA should
include information about currently available comparable listings, pend-
ing sales, sales that occurred within the last 6 months, as well as infor-
mation about listings that did not sell during the listing period. These are
called expired listings.
For sellers, the homes currently for sale are your competition. How you
price your home relative to the competition is critical to the sale of your
home. If possible, visit Sunday open houses to see how your home com-
pares before you select a list price.
Pending sale listings in your neighborhood represent the most recent
sales activity. Try to find out as much about these listings as possible.
Beware of the neighborhood grapevine. A combination of wishful think-
ing and enthusiasm can result in a rumor that a listing sold for an inflated
price. The actual sale price may be quite a bit lower.
Carefully analyze the information about homes that have sold. This sales
data is the most reliable indicator of what the market will bear price-wise.
Typically, the sales should have occurred no longer than 6 months ago.
However, in a market that is changing rapidly, six months may be too
(Continued on page 4)
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,110,000$ 1,197,504$ 231 26 109.1% 16.2% 12.0% -25.2% 3.3% 1.1% 35.1%
D1: Northwest 1,110,000$ 1,131,308$ 13 25 112.5% -20.7% -13.2% -38.1% 13.8% 11.6% 160.0%
D2: Central West 1,168,000$ 1,054,083$ 6 56 111.5% 38.2% 26.9% 0.0% 61.7% 23.3% 50.0%
D3: Southwest 709,500$ 795,346$ 8 23 105.9% 51.0% 70.1% 100.0% -14.0% -3.5% 100.0%
D4: Twin Peaks 730,000$ 729,500$ 4 16 106.3% 30.9% 27.6% -33.3% 161.3% 161.2% 300.0%
D5: Central 1,273,500$ 1,295,196$ 44 22 114.0% 7.3% 12.1% -2.2% -5.7% -3.7% 51.7%
D6: Central North 1,287,500$ 1,202,242$ 26 25 112.2% 20.3% 26.1% -13.3% 1.8% 2.8% 44.4%
D7: North 1,626,914$ 1,764,474$ 26 19 109.7% 6.7% 15.2% -7.1% -0.3% -4.3% 85.7%
D8: Northeast 875,000$ 970,480$ 43 29 106.5% 16.7% -4.4% -8.5% 4.2% -14.6% 43.3%
D9: Central East 1,010,000$ 1,188,023$ 57 26 104.8% 8.6% 18.0% -52.1% -4.9% 6.0% -5.0%
D10: Southeast 732,500$ 685,000$ 4 34 109.9% 45.8% 17.9% 33.3% 44.0% 32.8% 0.0%
October Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Annie Williams
http://www.anniewilliamshomes.co
m
Fax: (415) 202-1686
Local Market Trends | San Francisco | 3
What’s Involved in a Comparative Market Analysis
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2015 rereport.com
-40.0%
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change
© 2015 rereport.com
November/December 2015

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.
Annie Williams
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San Francisco 94123
Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown: http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com
long a time frame. When home prices are moving up or down quickly, it's
wise to shorten the time frame. Six-month-old listings may be out of date.
Estimating a probable sale price based on a CMA involves a certain amount
of subjectivity. Accurately predicting a sale price is easiest in neighborhoods
of tract housing where all houses are pretty much the same. It's more difficult
in neighborhoods where there's a lot of variability in home size, style and
condition.
An agent's knowledge of the local market can affect the accuracy of a CMA,
particularly in a neighborhood with a lot of variability in the housing stock.
Unless the agent has actually seen the comparable listings, he may not draw
the correct conclusions.
Call me for an accurate Comparative Market Analysis.
(Continued from page 3)
-25.0
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2015 rereport.com