National Residential Real Estate Market - January 2019 update

JANUARY 2019
Data provided by
Keeping Current Matters
National Real Estate Market Update
Scott Rodgers, REALTOR® www.ThePeak.com

5,367
5,240
5,350
5,560
5,441
5,350
MBA FannieMae NAR
Total Existing Home Sales in thousands

Decade Average Rate
1970s 8.86%
1980s 12.7%
1990s 8.12%
2000s 6.29%
Freddie Mac
Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade

6.4%
6.3%
6.4%
6.3%
6.7% 6.7%
6.5%
6.2%
6.0%
5.7%
5.5% 5.5%
Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City CompositeCase Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 12/2018

“The deceleration in home price
growth reflects improving
inventories and provides buyers
who experienced tight supply for
much of the year with more
inventory to select from.”
Sam Khater
Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

January 2016 January 2017 January 2018
% -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4.
Year-over-Year
NAR 1/2019
Inventory Levels

Average Days on the Market
NAR

“With inventory now
increasing, there may be less
of an imperative to renovate
as opposed to buying.”
Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist at CoreLogic

Year-Over-Year Change in Price
By Region
FHFA

FHFA

CoreLogic

“These higher rates and home prices
have reduced buyer affordability.
Home sellers are responding by
lowering their asking price, which is
reflected in the slowing growth of the
CoreLogic Home Price Index.”
Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist at CoreLogic

Quarter-Over-Quarter Change in Price
FHFA

CoreLogic
Month-Over-Month % Change in Price

Sam Khater
VP & Chief Economist of Freddie Mac
“The slowdown in home sales and home
prices in 2018 was concentrated on the
high end of the market and along the more
expensive coastal and formerly hot
markets. While interior housing markets
exhibited a slowdown, it was milder than
the slowdown in coastal markets.”

Metropolitan Area Monthly Change
Atlanta .2%
Boston .1%
Charlotte .3%
Chicago -.3%
Cleveland -.5%
Dallas 0%
Denver -.3%
Detroit 0%
Las Vegas .3%
Los Angeles .1%
Miami .1%
Metropolitan Area3 Monthly Change
Minneapolis -.1%
New York .4%
Phoenix .7%
Portland -.6%
San Diego -.1%
San Francisco -.7%
Seattle -1.1%
Tampa 0%
Washington, D.C. 0%
All 20 Metros 0%
U.S. National .1%
Case Shiller Month-Over-Month Price Changes

Goldman Sachs
“Despite the headwinds facing the housing
market going into 2019, we expect U.S.
house prices to generally achieve a soft
landing. While we are likely to see more
than a few metros experience negative
house price growth in the coming years,
we expect national average price
appreciation to remain positive.”

What Will Home Prices Do in 2019?
projections of 100 economists, market analysts, and real estate experts
BY RAW NUMBERS
94%
4%
2%
Appreciate Depreciate No Change
BY PERCENTAGE
Appreciate Depreciate No Change
94
4 2

Source 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
HPES +5.8 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +3.3
Zelman & Assoc. +4.7 +3.5 +3.2 N/A N/A
MBA +6.3 +4.5 +3 +1.9 N/A
Freddie Mac +5.1 +4.3 +2.9 N/A N/A
NAR +4.7 +3.8 +3 N/A N/A
Fannie Mae +5.4 +2.5 +2.8 N/A N/A
Projected Home Price % Appreciation Going Forward

CoreLogic
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price

CoreLogic
Forecasted Month-Over-Month % Change in Price

nar.realtor
Increase in Home Values 2005-2018

3.6
5.1
4.8
Historical Average 2018 2019 Projected
Home Price Expectation Survey & CoreLogic
Annual Price Appreciation

$250,000
$259,500
$265,988
$272,637
$280,271
$289,520
January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 January 2024
$39,520
Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey
potential growth in family wealth over the next
five years based solely on increased home equity
Home Price Expectation Survey 2018 4Q

59%
60%
65%
2016 2017 2018
Percentage of Americans who
believe that homeownership is
a good investment…
The Fed

With home prices and mortgage rates still
expected to rise, the best time to buy a
home in the next five years will be…

Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
3 Total Existing Home Sales www.freddiemac.com, www.fanniemae.com, http://nar.realtor/, www.mba.org
4 Historic Mortgage Rates www.freddiemac.com/pmms
6, 18 Case Shiller http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index,
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/843358_cshomeprice-release-1226.pdf
7, 17 Sam Khater Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/perspectives/sam_khater/20181226_economic.html
8 Year-Over-Year Inventory https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
9 Avg Days on the Market https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
10 Frank Nothaft Quote https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47724-will-2019-bring-a-boom-in-home-equity-lending?
11-12, 15 FHFA Home Price Index https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx
13-14, 16,
22-23
CoreLogic Home Price Index http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
19 Goldman Sachs Quote https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-3-reasons-us-housing-market-slowing-134832181.html
20, 21 What Will Home Prices Do in ’19 www.pulsenomics.com, zelmanassociates.com, www.freddiemac.com, www.fanniemae.com, http://nar.realtor/, www.mba.org , www.corelogic.com
24 Increase in Home Values Since ‘05 http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2018/12/11/property-values-by-state-from-2005-2018/
25-26 Home Price Expectation Survey https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
27 Homeownership is a Good Investment https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/housing#main
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
34, 55, 65
Average Days on Market,
Buyer & Seller Traffic Maps
https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
35, 36, 45,
47-48, 56-61
Existing Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
37, 38, 42 Freddie Mac Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://nar.realtor/
39-41, 62-63 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
43-44 Pending Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
49-51 Case Shiller Price Index http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
52 Forecasted Change in Price http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
53 Appraisal Challenge https://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2018/12/11/homeowner-perception-and-equity-growth-remain-steady-as-2018-comes-to-a-clos
66-68 Foot Traffic http://nar.realtor/
70, 71, 73, 74 Freddie Mac Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
72 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20181127_economic_growth.html
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_121418.pdf
https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Dec%202018.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-01-2019-us-economic-outlook-12-28-2018.pdf
76-77 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
78-82 Ellie Mae Report https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt47a327ac368e22cd/blt6ea7a83a255e582c/5c19d4bfc3cf797d38cc8e28/EM_OIR_NOVEMBER2018.p5162.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Since January 2014
EXISTING
Home Sales
NAR 1/2019

-7.0%
-2.6%
-4.3%
-5.6%
-15.4%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTIN
G
Home Sales
NAR 1/2019

Existing Home Sales
in thousands
Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018

Census & NAR
2017 2018
New Home Sales in thousands

Jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Census
New Home Sales
annualized in thousands

6%
8%
36%
23%
12%
9%
7%
Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
Census
New Home Sales
% of sales by price range

3.2
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.2 3.2
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.2
2.9 2.9
2.7
Nov Dec Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Census
New Homes Selling Fast
(median months from completion to sold)

Census & NAR
364 366
516
503
612
656
561
580
512 507
475 472
361
373
500
521
597
626
575 585
461
2017 2018
Total Home Sales in thousands

January… January… January… January… January…
100 = Historically Healthy Level
PENDING Home Sales
since 2014
NAR 1/2019

-7.7%
-3.5%
-7.0% -7.4%
-12.2%
PENDING Home Sales
Year-Over-Year By Region
NAR 1/2019

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Percentage of
Distressed
Property
Sales
35%
January 2012 - Today
2%
4%
NAR 1/2019

4.2%
6.5%
2.6%
3.2%
1.8%
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTING
Home Prices
NAR 1/2019

-12.2%
-4.8%
1.5%
-0.3%
4.5%
-3.7%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -12.2% -4.8% 1.5% -0.3% 4.5% -3.7%
% Change in
Sales
from last year by Price Range
NAR 1/2019

June 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Year-Over-
Year
PRIC
E
CHANGE
S
Case
Shiller

20 City Composite
Case Shiller

6.4%
6.3%
6.4%
6.3%
6.7% 6.7%
6.5%
6.2%
6.0%
5.7%
5.5% 5.5%
Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
20CityComposite
Case Shiller

CoreLogic
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in
Price

-0.50
-0.60
-0.53
-0.36
-0.33 -0.34
-0.25
-0.28 -0.28 -0.29 -0.28
-0.36
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% -0.5 -0.6 -0.53 -0.36 -0.33 -0.34 -0.25 -0.28 -0.28 -0.29 -0.28 -0.36
Quicken Loans
Appraiser Home Value Opinions
Compared to Homeowner Estimates
Last 12 Months

January
2011
January
2012
January
2013
January
2014
January
2015
January
2016
January
2017
January
2018
Months Inventory
of
HOMES FOR
SALE
2011 - Today
NAR 1/2019

Dec Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
last 2 years
NAR 1/2019

3.2
3.4 3.4
3.6
4.0
4.1
4.3 4.3 4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
NAR 1/2019
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR
SALELast 12 Months

January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018
% 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.8 4.5 6.0 5.2 5.0 -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 0.5 0.0 2.7 1.1 2.8 4.2
Year-over-Year
Inventory Levels
NAR 1/2019

Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct Nov
% -24 -20 -16 -14 -13 -7. -5% -6. 1.8 0.9 5.0 1.6 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6% 5.5 5.8 4.5 6% 5.2 5% -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 0.5 0.0 2.7 1.1 2.8 4.2
Year-over-Year
Inventory Levels
NAR 1/2019

HOUSING SUPPLY
Year-Over-Year
-11.1%
-9.5%
-8.1%
-7.2%
-6.3% -6.1%
0.5% 0.0%
2.7%
1.1%
2.8%
4.2%
NAR 1/2019
Last 12 Months
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

5.2
5.1
5.0
5.4 5.4
5.3
6.0 6.0
5.3
5.6
4.9
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.7
5.5
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.5
7.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2017
2018
Census
New Home Inventory
months supply

4.9
5.5 5.6
5.4 5.3
5.7
5.5
6.0
6.2
6.4 6.5
7.4
Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Census
New Home Inventory
months supply
Last 12 Months

Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 11/2018

Foot Traffic
indicator of future sales
Last 12 Months
NAR 11/2018

2017
2018
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 11/2018

1/4 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/3 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6
Freddie Mac 1/2019
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
3.95%
4.55%

1/7/16
2/4
3/3
4/7
5/5
6/2
7/7
8/4
9/1
10/6
11/3
12/1
1/5/17
2/2
3/2
3/30
4/27
5/25
6/22
7/20
8/17
9/14
10/12
11/9
12/7
1/4/18
2/1
3/1
4/5
5/4
6/7
7/5
8/2
9/6
10/4
11/1
12/6
30-Year Fixed
Rate Mortgages
from Freddie Mac
4.55
3.97
Freddie Mac 1/2019

Mortgage Rate Projections
1/2019
Quarter
Freddie
Mac
Fannie
Mae
MBA NAR
Average
of All Four
2019 1Q 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.80
2019 2Q 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.88
2019 3Q 5.2 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.98
2019 4Q 5.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.03

2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
Rate 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9 5 5.2 5.3
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual
- Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

4.9
5.0
5.2
5.3
Freddie Mac
2019 Q1
Where Are They
Going In 2019?
January – Today Actual
Interest Rates
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
30-Year Fixed Rate

Mortgage Credit Availability
YES NO MAYBE

Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a
report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit
Availability

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
June 2004 June 2005June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 Nov 2018
Historic Data for the
MORTGAGE CREDIT
AVAILABILITY INDEX
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
MBA

46
47
45
43
42
43
44 44
45 45
46
48
Average Days To Close A Loan
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Last 12 Months

722
721 721
722
723
724
726
725
724
727 727 727
FICO® Score Requirements
Last 12 months

0.07% 0.7%
8.7%
18.5%
24.0%
34.4%
13.5%
500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+
FICO® Score
Distribution
51.3% All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

Average FICO® Score
for Closed Purchase Loans
by Loan Type
727
751
676
707
All Loans Conventional FHA VA

39 37
44 43
All Loans* Conventional FHA VA
Average Back End DTI
for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type

National Residential Real Estate Market - January 2019 update

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Editor's Notes