In February 2013, Latvian exports grew 9.6% year-over-year, led by growth in exports of wood and electrical machinery. Exports to Germany and Russia increased the most month-over-month. While Latvian exporters remained competitive, confidence declined in eurozone countries like Germany and Estonia. However, optimism outside the eurozone and growth in key sectors indicated Latvian exports would continue growing in 2013, albeit at a lower rate than 2012 depending on external demand.
"Highlights":
Consumer prices are on the rise though annual inflation remains negative
Surplus in the current account for the second consecutive quarter
Lending is back
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic forecasts, by: Igors Kasjanovs
"Highlights":
* Inflation stabilizes, main risk stems from oil price fluctuations
* Manufacturing retains high growth momentum
* Exports of goods increase volume and diversity
"In Focus":
* Tax reform, autors: Kārlis Vilerts
Highlights:
* Fastest GDP growth in 6 years
* Inflation slightly down
* Dynamic year for retail trade
In Focus.
Four years in the euro area – have the promises come true? author: Egils Kaužēns
"Highlights":
Consumer prices are on the rise though annual inflation remains negative
Surplus in the current account for the second consecutive quarter
Lending is back
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic forecasts, by: Igors Kasjanovs
"Highlights":
* Inflation stabilizes, main risk stems from oil price fluctuations
* Manufacturing retains high growth momentum
* Exports of goods increase volume and diversity
"In Focus":
* Tax reform, autors: Kārlis Vilerts
Highlights:
* Fastest GDP growth in 6 years
* Inflation slightly down
* Dynamic year for retail trade
In Focus.
Four years in the euro area – have the promises come true? author: Egils Kaužēns
Published by DESA’s Development Policy and Analysis Division, the September issue of the Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects covers recent events affecting the world economy such as the connection between slowing growth in Europe and weaker exports from Asia. The recessionary environment in Europe is reducing growth prospects for some developing economies as it weakens demand for those economies’ exports. This has been felt most strongly in East and South Asia, where exports to the EU are down by 7.2 per cent year on year, and Western Asia (including Iran) where exports are down 18 per cent.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtml
"Highlights":
* Energy prices keep annual inflation below zero
* Manufacturing growth regains momentum
* Latvia's exports: a zigzag path maintained
"In Focus":
* Latvia's exports to euro area: developments after joining, autore: Daina Pelēce
Highlights:
- Broad-based growth drives GDP acceleration
- Inflation has reached its upswing potential
- Increase in external demand accelerates external trade
In Focus:
- "The importance of high value added services exports is growing for Latvia's economy" by Linda Vecgaile
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2016Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
"Highlights":
Economy faces temporary slowdown
Loan portfolio is showing some signs of moderation
External trade activity drops due to slowdown in re-exports
"In Focus":
Retail trade developments, by Daina Paula
"Highlights"
* Manufacturing growth accelerated in the second half of 2016
* Retail trade reported higher growth at the end of 2016
* Consumer prices pick up reflecting an increase in commodity prices
"In Focus":
* Reshaping of Latvia's energy sector continues, autors: Igors Kasjanovs
Highlights:
- Annual inflation rose in May, indicating sustained demand
- GDP growth stable and moderate in the first quarter of 2015
- Annual wage growth gradually decreasing
In Focus:
- Economic situation and forecasts – growth slows down, risks remain high; by Igors Kasjanovs
Highlights:
Annual inflation stands positive
Manufacturing growth has become stronger
Government debt servicing costs have been reduced
"In Focus":
What are the different effects of oil price developments on Latvia's inflation? autori: Oļegs Tkčevs and Andrejs Bessonovs
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing growth supported by nearly all sectors
* Exports regain pace
* Inflation boosted by global food prices growth while oil prices decrease
"In Focus":
* Comparison of the Baltic States' exports, author Daina Pelēce
Highlights:
- Current account reflects the recovering investment activity
- Annual inflation continues hovering around 3%
- GDP growth exceeds expectations and leads to revised forecasts
In Focus:
- Latvia 2017: Back to growth and structural reforms, by Mārtiņš Grāvītis
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing output continues to rise despite weak demand
* Latvian exports sluggish in complex circumstances
* Inflation starting to go up
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic balance maintained in 2016, supply side should be strengthened in 2017, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
Financial Stability Report (ISSN 1691-1199) is issued annually (the first issue was published in December 2003) in Latvian and in English, based on the data provided by the Bank of Latvia, the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, the Financial and Capital Market Commission and the Latvian Leasing Association. The goal of the Report is to analyse and assess the performance of the Latvian financial system, paying particular attention to the banking sector and the operation of leasing companies.
Starting with the first issue of 2006, the publication is available only in electronic form.
Prior to 2007 the publication was released twice a year.
Published by DESA’s Development Policy and Analysis Division, the September issue of the Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects covers recent events affecting the world economy such as the connection between slowing growth in Europe and weaker exports from Asia. The recessionary environment in Europe is reducing growth prospects for some developing economies as it weakens demand for those economies’ exports. This has been felt most strongly in East and South Asia, where exports to the EU are down by 7.2 per cent year on year, and Western Asia (including Iran) where exports are down 18 per cent.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtml
"Highlights":
* Energy prices keep annual inflation below zero
* Manufacturing growth regains momentum
* Latvia's exports: a zigzag path maintained
"In Focus":
* Latvia's exports to euro area: developments after joining, autore: Daina Pelēce
Highlights:
- Broad-based growth drives GDP acceleration
- Inflation has reached its upswing potential
- Increase in external demand accelerates external trade
In Focus:
- "The importance of high value added services exports is growing for Latvia's economy" by Linda Vecgaile
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2016Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
"Highlights":
Economy faces temporary slowdown
Loan portfolio is showing some signs of moderation
External trade activity drops due to slowdown in re-exports
"In Focus":
Retail trade developments, by Daina Paula
"Highlights"
* Manufacturing growth accelerated in the second half of 2016
* Retail trade reported higher growth at the end of 2016
* Consumer prices pick up reflecting an increase in commodity prices
"In Focus":
* Reshaping of Latvia's energy sector continues, autors: Igors Kasjanovs
Highlights:
- Annual inflation rose in May, indicating sustained demand
- GDP growth stable and moderate in the first quarter of 2015
- Annual wage growth gradually decreasing
In Focus:
- Economic situation and forecasts – growth slows down, risks remain high; by Igors Kasjanovs
Highlights:
Annual inflation stands positive
Manufacturing growth has become stronger
Government debt servicing costs have been reduced
"In Focus":
What are the different effects of oil price developments on Latvia's inflation? autori: Oļegs Tkčevs and Andrejs Bessonovs
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing growth supported by nearly all sectors
* Exports regain pace
* Inflation boosted by global food prices growth while oil prices decrease
"In Focus":
* Comparison of the Baltic States' exports, author Daina Pelēce
Highlights:
- Current account reflects the recovering investment activity
- Annual inflation continues hovering around 3%
- GDP growth exceeds expectations and leads to revised forecasts
In Focus:
- Latvia 2017: Back to growth and structural reforms, by Mārtiņš Grāvītis
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing output continues to rise despite weak demand
* Latvian exports sluggish in complex circumstances
* Inflation starting to go up
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic balance maintained in 2016, supply side should be strengthened in 2017, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
Financial Stability Report (ISSN 1691-1199) is issued annually (the first issue was published in December 2003) in Latvian and in English, based on the data provided by the Bank of Latvia, the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, the Financial and Capital Market Commission and the Latvian Leasing Association. The goal of the Report is to analyse and assess the performance of the Latvian financial system, paying particular attention to the banking sector and the operation of leasing companies.
Starting with the first issue of 2006, the publication is available only in electronic form.
Prior to 2007 the publication was released twice a year.
Global Challenges and Local Opportunities: Achievements and Prospects in the ...Latvijas Banka
Presentation by Ilmārs Rimšēvičs, Governor of the Bank of Latvia at the Bank of Latvia conference "Global Challenges and Local Opportunities: Achievements and Prospects in the Baltic States".
Riga, 12 October 2011.
Valsts ekonomiskās izaugsmes un eiro ieviešanas perspektīvas LatvijāLatvijas Banka
Prezentācija veikta laikraksta Dienas Bizness organizētajā konferencē Biznesa prognozes 2012, 2. diskusiju sadaļā " Valsts ekonomiskās izaugsmes un eiro ieviešanas perspektīvas Latvijā". Tajā sniegts ieskats par Latvijas tautsaimniecības attīstību gan ilgākā, gan īstermiņa laika posmā, secinot, ka kopumā Latvijas ekonomikas modelis bijis veiksmīgs, tomēr tuvākajā nākotnē ekonomiskā attīstība palēnināsies dēļ problēmām parādu krīzes skartajās Eiropas valstīs. Prezentācijā sniegtas arī galveno tautsaimniecības rādītāju prognozes 2012. gadam.
Presentation by Kārlis Bauze, Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Bank of Latvia at Country workshop: "EU Balance-of-Payments assistance for Latvia: Foundations of Success" organized by the European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, and the Bank of Latvia.
Brussels, March 1, 2012
From boom to bust and recovery: the role of the banking systemLatvijas Banka
Presentation by MārtiņšKazāks, PhD, Deputy Group Chief Economist of Swedbank at Country workshop: "EU Balance-of-Payments assistance for Latvia: Foundations of Success" organized by the European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, and the Bank of Latvia.
Brussels, March 1, 2012
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Swedbank Economic Outlook - 2010, September 21Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
Annual inflation was stable in April
GDP growth maintained by retail trade and impeded by energy sector
Labour market gradually becoming more favourable for employees
"In Focus":
Eurosystem's monetary policy: Expanded Asset Purchase Programme; autors: Egils Kaužēns
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2015Latvijas Banka
Based on data from tLatvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Latvijas tautsaimniecības makroekonomiskā attīstība | Septembris 2023Latvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas prezidenta Mārtiņa Kazāka un Monetārās politikas pārvaldes vadītāja Ulda Rutkastes prezentācija 2023. gada 29. septembrī par jaunākajām ekonomikas prognozēm.
Latvijas Bankas Finanšu pratības daļas vadītājas Aijas Brikšes prezentācija Rīgas Izglītības un informatīvi metodiskā centra seminārā skolotājiem "Drošs internets un droša digitālā finanšu pratība" 2023. gada 29. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Makroekonomikas analīzes daļas galvenās ekonomistes Baibas Brusbārdes prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Monetārās politikas analīzes daļas galvenās ekonomistes Anetes Kravinskas prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Makroekonomikas analīzes daļas galvenā ekonomistes Dainas Paulas prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas tautsaimniecības makroekonomiskā attīstība | Marts 2023Latvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas prezidenta Mārtiņa Kazāka un Monetārās politikas pārvaldes vadītāja Ulda Rutkastes prezentācija 2023. gada 31. martā par jaunākajām ekonomikas prognozēm.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
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RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
Monthly Newsletter 4/2013
1.
2. In February 2013, the annual rise in Latvian exports reached 9.6%,
which is a good result, especially considering the unstable external
environment. Almost all export commodity groups significant for
Latvia retained growth in annual terms; a particularly healthy rise
was observed in the exports of articles of wood as well as electrical
machinery and equipment. Month-on-month, the fastest increase in
commodity exports was observed to Germany and Russia. Exports
to the euro area posted positive growth both month-on-month and
year-on-year confirming the competitiveness of Latvian exporters.
Analysing the changes in the economic sentiment indicator
(ESI) of Latvia's trade partners, it is obvious that confidence has
deteriorated particularly in the euro area countries (Germany and
Estonia), whereas improvements are observed in partners outside
the euro zone. Both the retained optimism of the non-euro area
trade partners and the successful development of the above-mentioned sectors give rise to hope that the total Latvian exports
will continue to grow in 2013. Nevertheless, the growth rate of commodity exports will be significantly lower than in 2012,
provided that the external demand does not pick up more robustly.
1. Highlights
Bank of Latvia Monthly Newsletter April 2013
In February, manufacturing output (seasonal effects excluded)
grew by 0.2% month-on-month. The annual growth rate has once
again returned to a positive territory, at 1.9%. The total industrial
output (including the energy sector and mining and quarrying)
dropped by 2.6% as a result of the relatively warm February.
Looking by sub-sector, the monthly developments did not reveal
any fundamental changes in trends, with the exception of the
negative trend observed in the case of the manufacture of basic
metals were a month-on-month drop of 19.5% was reported. In
February, the output of this particular sub-sector was 27.2% lower
than the 2012 monthly average. That, of course, is explained by
the drop in the production levels of the financially troubled metal
lurgical company "Liepājas Metalurgs".
Moreover, the European Commission's confidence indicators and
the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) point to a worsening in the
European industry. In addition to that, stagnation is also observed
in construction in Europe which has a negative impact on Latvia's
exports generated by the wood and metal sectors. Signs of recession are observed in the automotive industry, adversely
affecting the Latvian enterprises producing parts for the manufacture of motor vehicles. Furthermore, no positive signs are
so far evident in the European metallurgical industry. Thus the negative effects originating in Europe are expected to increase
in the near future.
Foreign trade still showing positive signs
Manufacturing holds up well, yet challenges await in the future
The annual inflation remained at a low level (0.2%) in March 2013.
This was determined by the developments observed in individual
factors in earlier (including base) periods rather than any new
factors.
First, the average oil price was lower in the first three months of
2013 compared to last year and even dropped slightly month-on-
month in March, thus bringing the price of fuel down by 1.3%.
Second, the natural gas tariffs for households and those producers
of thermal energy that use natural gas were reduced gradually in
January and February, remaining at a lower level also in March.
The average consumer prices rose mostly on account of the season
al prices on clothing and footwear in March of this year.
On the one hand, the inflation is already low and further declines
are unlikely. On the other hand, the demand-side pressure on infla
tion is not expected to resume in the near future. Therefore, the
average annual inflation will remain low; however, with the impact
of base factors fading, the annual inflation will gradually climb to about 2% in the second half of the year.
Inflation stays at record lows
3. 2. Macroeconomic Data
Reporting
period
Data (%)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
(quarter-on-quarter growth; seasonally adjusted) 2012 Q4 1.4
State budget
Tax revenue (current month; year-on-year growth)
General government expenditure (since the beginning of the year, year-on-year
growth)
2013 III
2013 III
5.4
6.0
Consumer price changes
Consumer Price Index CPI (month-on-month growth)
12-month average annual inflation (to comply with the Maastricht Criteria)
21.03.2013 Producer prices drop, supply side pressure on prices still low
09.04.2013 The low annual inflation determined by factors from previous periods
2013 III
2013 III
0.5
1.6
Foreign trade
Exports (year-on-year growth)
Imports (year-on-year growth)
09.04.2013 External trade indicators testify to the sustained competitiveness of
Latvian producers
2013 II
2013 II
9.6
–0.6
Balance of payments
Current account balance (ratio to GDP)
Foreign direct investment in Latvia (net flows; % of GDP)
2012 Q4
2012 Q4
0.5
3.4
Industrial output
Working day-adjusted industrial output index (year-on-year growth)
03.04.2013 Manufacturing volumes growing, yet tougher times ahead
2013 II 1.8
Retail trade turnover
Retail trade turnover at constant prices (year-on-year growth)
28.03.2013 Prediction confirmed: retail trade down in February
2013 II 5.7
Employment and unemployment
Registered unemployment (share in working age population) 2013 III 10.8
Monetary indicators
Broad money M3 (year-on-year)
19.04.2013 Household deposits on the rise
2013 III 0.4
Source: Treasury, Central Statistical Bureau of the Republic of Latvia, and Bank of Latvia data.
Bank of Latvia Monthly Newsletter April 2013
4. 3. In Focus
Bank of Latvia Monthly Newsletter April 2013
Latvian fiscal policies: building on consolidation success
In 2012, the first year after the completion of the EU/IMF Balance-of-Payments assistance programme, Latvia
continued on a sustainable fiscal path on its own. On the back of responsibly handled public finances and over
achieving economic growth, the budget deficit turned out well below the initial target of 2.1% of GDP (1.2%).
After implementing large-scale consolidation in the midst of the crisis, the economy recovered much faster
than expected and public spending was reduced in a sustainable manner. This was achieved by planning
a restrictive expenditure policy for 2012, including nearly 1% of GDP in consolidation measures on top
of the massive package (17% of GDP) completed within the framework of the programme in 2008–2011.
Tax revenue growth remained buoyant throughout the year: several priority areas where pressing financial
needs had accumulated during the years of tough spending restriction could be addressed. Regardless of the
budgetary amendments, the annual increase of the general government expenditure was contained at 3% while
the revenue grew by almost 10% in ESA terms.
Thus the general government balance improved from 3.6% in 2011 to 1.2% in 2012. The primary driver was
obviously the better-than-expected economic growth, yet the improvement was more than a percentage point
even in cyclically-adjusted terms. Good fiscal discipline with respect to discretionary spending created room
for structural adjustments in tax policy. The value added tax rate was cut by 1 percentage point to 21% from
July 2012 to align VAT rates with the neighbouring countries and boost the purchasing power of the popula
tion.
The much-improved sustainability of public finances enabled the government to return to the implementation
of the pension reform: the contribution rate to the 2nd pillar of the pension system was raised by 2 percentage
points to 4% in 2013. In addition, to shift the tax burden away from labour, a 1 percentage point cut in the
personal income tax rate was introduced in 2013, with the overall objective of reducing the rate from 25% in
2012 to 20% in 2015. Even with these necessary structural changes in the public finances, the headline budget
deficit is certain to fall below the 3% benchmark leaving a safety margin also in the near future, eliminating
any concerns about sustainability.
Another fact that confirms the confidence in Latvian fiscal policy in the longer term is the return of market
trust in Latvia's sovereign debt. Latvia successfully returned to international capital markets already in 2011
but the latest bond issue in December 2012 was sold at a historically low rate. The proceeds of the said issue
were used for early repayment of the IMF portion of the stabilisation programme loan. Although general
government debt increased by some 335 million lats in 2012, it declined by a percentage point to 40.7%
of the GDP. As a result of the Treasury's refinancing plan, the debt is projected to increase slightly in 2013;
nevertheless, after the expected large repayments of the European Commission share of the programme loan
coming up in 2014 and 2015, the debt ratio will be firmly set on a downward path.
Latvia's fiscal policy clearly satisfies the Maastricht criteria and, by ratifying the Fiscal Compact, Latvia of
ficially demonstrated the commitment to participate in the building of prudent fiscal governance in Europe.
Since the beginning of this year, the principles of the Fiscal Compact are transposed into Latvia's national
law in the form of the Fiscal Discipline Law, in force since 6 March 2013. The main features of the law are
the concept of a balanced budget over the economic cycle (represented by the structural balance below 0.5%
of GDP restriction in the law), and expenditure growth restriction in line with the potential GDP growth. The
above principles will be implemented through medium-term budgeting stipulated in a law setting expenditure
limits for three years. A Fiscal Council consisting of 6 fiscal policy experts is expected to start operating from
the beginning of 2014. Its task will be to monitor the correct application of the Fiscal Discipline Law in the
medium-term budget framework law and in the annual budget.