The Mobile Gaming Mess
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What will happen in 2013? What value was created in 2012 in mobile gaming?
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The Mobile Gaming Mess
- 1. The Mobile Gaming Market Mess: Who to believe in 2013?! @benjaminjoffe | GMGC 2013
- 3. Geography 1. China mostly 2. US mostly 3. Mix or Other
- 4. How is your company? 1. Very profitable 2. Around breakeven 3. Not breaking even yet
- 7. I spent most of my working life (11 years) overseas, especially in Japan, China, South Korea and USA. My cultural DNA has become rather complex. 13 Years Across Asia (& some US)"
- 9. • 150+ talks & 500,000+ views on SlideShare Speaker"
- 10. Mentor @ Startup Accelerators"
- 11. Angel Investor! 1. Gengo (JP) 2. TokyoOtakuMode (JP) 3. Cmune (CN) 4. TwitMusic (PH) 5. PayrollHero (PH) 6. StoryPanda (CA) 7. CuriousHat (US) 8. YoGoMe (MX) 9. TenderTree (US) 10. SmartBites (US) Funded! Funded! Funded! Funded! Funded!
- 15. Games.com Predic`ons • Big Ktles – Temple Run – The Walking Dead • SubscripKon model • Kids games – Educa`onal, – Based on books, movies, TV shows
- 17. 1.5 million ac`va`ons per day 1 billion by end 2013 Why am I looking down?
- 20. Market Figures! “I’m bored. What could I play?”
- 21. $195m revenue, 45% toys" $9B Valuation?"
- 22. $2.4m / day?" $770m Valuation?"
- 23. $2m / day? TV ads" $10B Market Cap"
- 25. What in common?
- 26. $200m in 2013?" Valuation $1B?"
- 28. Market Caps • GREE $4.0B • DENA $4.1B • Gungho $10.4B • Zynga $2.5B • EA $5.39B • Ac`vision Blizzard $16.91B
- 29. Smaller guys • Korea – Gamevil $514 million – Come2US $458 million • Japan – Ateam $280 million – Drecom $270 million – Crooz $265 million – Klab $187 million – Enish $124 million – Voltage $50 million – Cave $24 million – Axel Mark $24 million $1B $1.2B
- 30. Value Crea`on in Mobile Gaming • Japan $20 billion • Korea $1 billion • Europe $10 billion • US ? • China ?
- 31. M&As (for memory) • NGMOGO $303 million DeNA (2010) • OpenFeint $103 million GREE (2011) • Funzio $210 million GREE (2012) • Pokelabo $170 million GREE (2012) • OMGPOP $180 million Zynga (2012) • GungHo $265 million* Sojbank (2013) = $1.2B
- 33. Other guys • Temple Run • Gameloj • Cut the Rope • Talking Tom Cat • Many, many, many others
- 34. Billion-‐dollar mobile genres? • So far all casual & mid-‐core • Console / PC $1B categories? – Almost untouched on mobile & tablets – Shooters, Racing, Sports, Music & Dance
- 35. 2011 2012 2013 Casual Mid-‐Core Core
- 36. Metrics! “At least it’s not meat”
- 37. Old Metrics • Registered users • MAU • DAU • ARPU • ARPPU
- 38. New Metrics • Quality DAU (QDAU) • 1, 2, 7, 30 days Reten`on • Conversion to paying • LTV • Number of Game Sessions • ROI vs UA
- 39. Problems • App discovery – Apple killing discovery apps – Rankings
- 40. Problems • App discovery – Apple killing discovery apps – Rankings • CPI – How far in the future are you front-‐running revenue?
- 41. But don’t forget! • Onboarding flow • Sense of progress • Connec`on • FUN
- 42. Communication or Entertainment?! “I wish I hadn’t used SnapChat”
- 45. Messaging Apps = New Discovery Channel?
- 48. Thanks! 谢谢大家！ benjamin@plus8star.com