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Human Settlements and Climate Change Mitigation
- 1. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Human Settlements and Climate Change Mitigation: Key findings from the latest IPCC WG3 report Shobhakar Dhakal, shobhakar@ait.ac.th Coordinating Lead Author, WGIII Associate Professor, Asian Institute of Technology IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Outreach Event 17-18 August 2015, United Nations Conference Centre, Bangkok, Thailand
- 2. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Key messages Our ability reduce global GHG depends on what kind of cities and towns we will build and how urban dwellers embrace carbon mitigation A large window of mitigation opportunities lie in guiding new urbanization in next 2-3 decades- urban areas are yet to be built Existing city initiatives are meaningful but results are yet unclear, actions are yet limited in scope but there are large opportunities to mitigate through ( a) systemic and integrated mitigation options, and b) considerations to co-benefits and best practices For designing and implementing climate policies effectively - institutional arrangements, governance mechanisms, and financial resources all should be aligned with the goals of reducing urban GHG emissions
- 3. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Urbanization is associated with increases in income and higher urban incomes correlated with higher energy and GHG emissions 71-76% of energy-related global CO2 emissions are from urban areas/cities City consumption driven upstream emissions makes cities even more important Cities in developing countries have, generally, higher per capita CO2 emissions than respective national averages – majority of new urbanization will be in these areas Emissions and contribution of sources vary greatly across cities – direct comparison often does not tell us much - cities are different from nation states
- 4. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report No single factor explains the large variations in city per-capita city emissions within and across countries Influenced by physical, economic and social drivers specific to each city Individual technology drivers and activities are relatively better understood- systemic factors and integrated effects of drivers are less understood Spatial drivers are important- especially the collective influence of urban density, land-use mix, connectivity and accessibility Density is necessary but not sufficient condition for lowering urban emissions Higher density Mixed land- use Better connectivity Better accessibility to people and places
- 5. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Thousands of cities are undertaking Climate Action Plans and mitigation commitments • Little systematic assessment on their level of implementation & the extent to which reduction targets are being achieved • Focused largely on energy efficiency • Limited consideration to land‐use planning strategies and other cross‐sectoral, cross boundary measures Yet, their aggregate impact on urban emissions is uncertain
- 6. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report In urban decisions making, policy leverages do not often match with largest mitigation opportunities in cities
- 7. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Action on urban-scale mitigation often depends on the ability to relate climate change mitigation efforts to local co-benefits • Successful implementation of urban-scale climate change mitigation strategies can provide health, economic and air quality co-benefits
- 8. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Implications of future urbanization Within city Outside city 66% 30% 54% 3.2 bn 2.46 bn 51% Asia 36% Africa 3.88 bn 6.34 bn 700 mn Source: UN DESA World Urbanization Prospects 2014 >10 mn city-agglomeration 1-5 mn city-agglomeration < 300 th city-agglomeration Urban land could expand up-to 3 time in 2000-30 55% of global land in 2030 is expected to be developed in 2000-30 Schneider et al., 2009; Angel et al., 2011; Seto et al., 2011, 2012 • Two sources of emissions: Materials stock; usage of infrastructure • Problem of “Lock-in”of energy and emissions pathways
- 9. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report • The existing infrastructure stock of the average Annex-I resident (2008) is @ • 3 times of the world average • 5 times of the average non-Annex I resident • If non-Annex I countries catch up with Annex-I for per capita infrastructure stock will result in significant future emissions Amount to over 1/3rd of total emission budget that we have left in 2000-2050 to stay under 2°C Future infrastructure in rapidly urbanizing regions demand large emissions
- 10. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ‘Governance paradox’ ‘Systemic changes’ have large mitigation opportunities but hindered by current patterns of urban governance, policy leverages and persisting policy fragmentation Governance and institutional capacity are scale and income dependent The largest opportunities for GHG emission where bulk of urban growth will take place (small cities and low income areas) where governance and institutional capacities are weakest. The feasibility of spatial planning instruments for climate change mitigation is highly dependent on a city’s financial and governance capability
- 11. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Key opportunities Guiding new urbanization in next 2-3 decades large opportunity but fast closing too Going beyond Incremental change to transformative change Better climate change action plans and implementations Deploying far-reaching market-based solutions coupled with planning, such as pricing Large opportunities for systemic and integrated solutions Overcoming the size, governance and income dependency of successful mitigation options, possibly through capacity building Overcoming the governance limitations and policy fragmentations Smoothening the entry points to climate agenda: Demonstrating the best practice technologies and local co-benefits of urban-scale mitigation actions
- 12. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report For further information www.mitigation2014.org
- 13. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Implications of urbanization Urbanization-income nexus higher urban incomes correlated with higher energy and GHG emissions Cities in developing countries have, generally, higher per capita final energy use and CO2 emissions than respective national averages – majority of new urbanization will be in non-Annex Based on 254 cities final energy use
- 14. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The feasibility of spatial planning instruments for climate change mitigation is highly dependent on a city’s financial and governance capability
Editor's Notes
- no single factor explains emissions and they are influenced by a variety of physical, technological, infrastructural, economic and social factors and their nexus specific to the each city. In particular, relatively less-understood are integrated effect of spatial factors, such as density (population, job, building, etc.), land use, connectivity, and accessibility (regional, CBD distance, job/shopping by auto and transit etc.) and consumption. Cities influence a large indirect carbon flow, which often out-weigh the direct flows due to consumption and export-import relations- and, without considering this, a low carbon city definition is incomplete. Creutzig et. al, 2013, PNAS (for final energy use): Highest per capita energy use occurred in rich cities with low gasoline price and low urban density; Lowest per capita energy use occurred in poor cities with high population density and warmer climate- income, density, gasoline price
- There has been little systematic assessment on their implementation, the extent to which emission reduction targets are being achieved, or emissions reduced. Current climate action plans focus largely on energy efficiency. Fewer climate action plans consider land‐use planning strategies and cross‐sectoral measures to reduce sprawl and promote transit‐oriented development. [12.6, 12.7, 12.9]
- With further urbanization, urban land will dramatically expand (55% of the total urban land in 2030 is expected to be built in the first three decades of the 21st century), large share of global GDP will come from cities, large fraction of global population will live in cities (likely 60% by 2050), more fossil energy will be consumed in cities and consequently, a greater share of global CO2 will come from cities. Further, a majority of global population additions will take place in cities of the developing world and, generally, per capita CO2 emissions in cities in developing countries are higher than the national averages. There are significant uncertainties on ‘quality’ of urbanization of what kind of cities and town that the current urbanization process leads into.
- About CRV: Quoting Müller (2013): In accounting, the value of an asset can be expressed, among others, as the historical cost (original monetary value) or as the replacement cost (cost of replacing an asset with current prices). Similarly, the carbon footprint of a stock can be defined as the historical emissions produced to build up the stock, or as the carbon emissions that would be generated if the existing stock was replaced using current technologies. As emissions per ton of material produced tend to decline, the replacement value expressed in carbon (here called “carbon replacement value, CRV”) is generally smaller than the historical value expressed in carbon (here called “CHV”). In this study, we determine the CRV of stocks, because this value is better suited when using the stocks in industrialized countries as a benchmark for stocks in developing countries. The CRVP was determined for the year 2008 using the three key materials steel, cement, and aluminum as a proxy. In 2008, these materials accounted for nearly half of industrial emissions (25% steel, 19% cement, and 3% aluminum) and 17% of total energy- and process-related CO2 emissions.16 Emissions of other materials are either less significant for infrastructure stocks (e.g., plastic and paper, which together constitute about 3% energy- and process-related emissions) or contribute significantly smaller amounts of emissions (e.g., other metals, gravel). Talking points: Concerning emissions from building urban structures (building up stocks) it is important to understand the magnitude of future emissions awaiting us if the developing world would mimic the pathway western countries have taken. The y-axis shows the amount of emissions (per person) needed to build the infrastructures (houses, transport (streets, railways, bridges), industry plants) existing in respective countries. You can see that developed countries (Annex I) have a far greater stock than Non-Annex I countries.
- Addressing system level changes such as land‐use planning, integrated energy system, and other cross‐sectoral measures with large mitigation opportunities such as consumption- Feasibility of spatial planning instruments and systemic solutions is highly dependent on a city’s financial and governance capability Large future mitigation opportunity in rapidly urbanizing, economically growing, small and mid-size cities- where capacity and governance is weaker