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Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
©Ocean/Corbis
Name
Role
MITIGATION:
Challenges and opportunities
Key findings of WGIII in the Fifth Assessment Report
With some recent developments
Diana Urge-Vorsatz
Vice Chair,WGIII
Director, Center for Climate Change and Systainable Energy Policy
Central European University
Riga, June 1, 2018
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
2
GHG emissions growth has accelerated
despite reduction efforts.
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been
larger than in the previous three decades.
3
Based on Figure 1.3
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations requires
moving away from business as usual.
4
Based on Figure 6.7
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Lower ambition mitigation goals require similar reductions
of GHG emissions.
5
~3°C
Based on Figure 6.7
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Limiting warming to 2°C is possible but involves
substantial technological, economic and
institutional challenges
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The view to 2050 and beyond
Source: UNEP
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable
➜ Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% (BAU growth 1.6 - 3%)
➜ This translates into delayed and not forgone growth
➜ Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced
climate change
➜ Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to
economic growth
➜ Opportunities for economic diversification
Source: AR5 WGI and WGII SPMs
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy
• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks
• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changes
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM
Key mitigation strategies
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The elements of the solution:
Focus on energy end-use and cities
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Sources of emissions
Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35%
24% 21% 14%
6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture,
forests and
other land uses
Industry Transport
Building
Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Allocation of Electricity/Heat Generation Emissions to End-use
Sectors for 2010
Source: Figure A.II.2
ElectricityandHeat
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Accounting for indirect emissions has
key implications on mitigation strategy!
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Source: Figure TS.15
Baseline Scenarios: Direct vs. Indirect Emission Accounting
Source: Volker Krey, using IPCC AR5 Figure SPM.10, TS.15
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Urban infrastructure development can
consume much of our remaining carbon
budget to a 1.5C target?
Source:Bai,X.etal.SixResearch
PrioritiesforCitiesandClimate
Change.Nature,Mar1,2018.
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The elements of the solution:
recent developments for deep carbon
mitigation in buildings
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
RHW.2 Tower Raiffeisen-Holding NÖ-Vienna office
World’s first Passive high-rise office building
Architects DI Dieter Hayde and DI Ernst Maurer
High-rise benchmarks energy consumption in kWh/m²a
140
95
14
170
80
8
125
55
39 78
135
82
56
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Conventionel
US skyscraper
Conventional
AT skyscraper
RHW.2
skyscraper
RHW.2
skyscraper
User
Building equipment
Cooling
Heating
312 kWh/m²a
570 kWh/m²a
Renewable energy
bio gas + geothermie
- 80%
117 kWh/m²a
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Geschosswohnungsbau Passivhaus Altbausanierung in Graz / Steiermark
Bauträger: GIWOG Generalunternehmer: GAP-Solution GmbH
135
5
0
50
100
150
Vor Sanierung Nach Sanierung
HeizwärmebedarfkWh/(m²a)
- 96%
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
At www.passivhausprojekte.de
documented Passive houses:
Documented Treated Floor Area
of Passive houses
from 46 Nations
without Germany and Austria
per end of April 2017
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Brock Commons Carbon Impact
Source:
Naturallywood
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
First retrofit to
Passive House Plus
Office building Technical University Vienna
Architect: Arch. DI Gerhard Kratochwil
Building physics: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH
Owner: BIG Bundesimmobilien gesmbH
Treated floor area: 7,322 m2 = 80,000 ft²
Heating demand: 14 kWh/m2a = 4.4 kBTU/ft²a
Heat load: 9 W/m² = 2.85 BTU/ft²
Primary energy: 56 kWh/m²a = 17.75 kBTU/ft²a
56 61
0
200
400
600
800
Before
retrofit
After retrofit Renewable
Energy
803
PrimaryEnergykWh/(m²a)
- 94%
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
0
50
100
150
200
250
Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům
celkováenergie[kWh/m
2
a]
Domácí spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytápění
- 90%
- 75%
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Total burden of disease from indoor
exposures in European countries
as DALY/million population with division to indoor and outdoor
sources in the 2010 building stock
Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor
exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Attributable burden of diseases due to
indoor exposures in 2010 in EU26
The lighter shade represents the maximum reducible fraction through
well operated ventilation systems in high-efficiency buildings
Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor
exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
EJ
Moderate Efficiency Deep Efficiency
Lock-in Effect 80%
34%
46%
The Lock-in Risk:
global heating and cooling final energy in
two scenarios
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Summary
 Emissions are still increasing dynamically
 Still, reaching 2C target is possible
 But involves immediate, rapid and far-reaching actions
 The costs do not significantly affect GDP
 There are also many business and economic opportunities
with well chosen mitigation pathways
 For several options the co-benefits may exceed the climate
benefits, mostly in energy efficiency improvements
 There are substantial lock-in risks, strategic planning and
urgent action can jointly prevent
 But much more innovation is needed –ideas involving 21st
century technologies (ICT), novel business models or
lifestyle shifts
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Thank you for your attention
Ürge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change
and Sustainable Energy
Policy (3CSEP)
CEU, and
Working Group III
IPCC
Ipcc.ch
Email:
vorsatzd@ceu.edu
With permission from HVG
They keep promising this global warming, they
keep promising, but you will see that they will not
keep this promise of theirs either!
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Supplementary slides
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Outline of AR5 WG-III Report
1 Introductory Chapter
2
Integrated Risk and
Uncertainty Assessment of
Climate Change Response
Policies
3
Social, Economic and Ethical
Concepts and Methods
4
Sustainable Development and
Equity
5 Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
6
Assessing Transformation
Pathways
7 Energy Systems
8 Transport
9 Buildings
10 Industry
11
Agriculture, Forestry and
Other Land Use (AFOLU)
12
Human Settlements,
Infrastructure and Spatial
Planning
13
International Cooperation:
Agreements and Instruments
14
Regional Development and
Cooperation
15
National and Sub-National
Policies and Institutions
16
Cross-cutting Investment and
Finance Issues
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increased efficiency has been a very
powerful tool to keep emission and
energy demand increases at bay for
decades
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Percapitaresidentialandcommercial
energyuse,1990-2010
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Thelock-inrisk:heatingandcooling
energydemandbytwoscenarios
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Total CO2 emissions (per capita) needed
to build up today’s infrastructure
Infrastructure build-up over the next few decades will
result in significant emissions
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Future CO2 emissions if developing
countries catch up to average developed
country level.
Infrastructure build-up over the next few decades will
result in significant emissions
There are several mitigation options
that can also contribute towards
development goals
“Overall, the potential for co‐benefits for energy
end‐use measures outweigh the potential
for adverse side‐effects, whereas the evidence
suggests this may not be the case for all energy
supply and AFOLU measures.” (SPM 4.1)
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Developments since AR5: global emissions have been level
for 3 years despite GDP growth (IEA)
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
A substantial share of
emission increase in the
next few decades will
come from cities
 Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions from
global energy use
 Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million
 By 2050 urban population is to increase by up to 3 billion
 Over 70% of global building energy use increase will take place in
developing country cities
 This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity and
responsibility
today 2035
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
IPCC AR5: Substantial reductions in emissions will
require large changes in investment patterns
42
Based on Figure 16.3
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing and co-locating residential and employment
densities can lower emissions
Higher density
leads to less
emissions
(i.a. shorter
distances
travelled).
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing urban density is a necessary but not sufficient
condition for lowering urban emissions
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, courtesy of Karen Seto
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing land use mix can significantly reduce emissions
Mix of land-use
reduces
emissions.
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing connectivity can enable multiple modes of transport
Improved
infrastructural
density and
design (e.g.
streets) reduces
emissions.
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Co-location of activities reduces direct and indirect GHG
emissions
Accessibility to
people and
places (jobs,
housing,
services,
shopping)
reduces
emissions.
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
To lower urban emissions, need diverse urban land use
mix
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Sweden UK
Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Austria
Estonia Finland France Greece
Ireland Italy Latvia Lithunia Croatia
Czech Rep. Hungaria Luxembourg Netherlands Poland
Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Cyprus
60,000 Passive Houses exist in
28 European member countries
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Gründerzeitbau 1020 Wien, Eberlgasse
Bauherr: Andreas Kronberger Unternehmensberatung
Bauphysik: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH
178
15 2
0
50
100
150
200
Before
retrofit
After
retrofit
Solar
Energy
HeatEnergykWh/(m²a)
- 92%
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Passsive houses spread around the world
Based on draft UNEP Emissions Gap Report, contributed by PHI
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
www.heidelberg-bahnstadt.de
World’s largest Passive House city district
Zero-Emission-City areal Heidelberg-Bahnstadt
116 ha, 1,700 flats
Passive House as Standard for urban development
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
How mitigation options can go hand-in-
hand with development goals (co-
benefits)
 Air quality improvement – indoor and outdoor
 Health – e.g. through indoor and outdoor air quality improvement,
reduced thermal stress, increased activity
 Energy security
 Efficiency increases access to energy services
 fuel poverty could be eliminated
 Better employment and economic opportunities through accessivity
 Reduced congestion
 Others: biodiversity conservation, water availability, food security,
income distribution, improved productivity, efficiency of the taxation
system, labour supply and employment, urban sprawl, and the
sustainability of the growth of developing countries
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
TreEhugger daydream…?
1/06/2018 54
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Private
investment
into mobility
services is
skyrocketing
55
Title of presentation, date, text
SOURCE: MCKINSEY:
“URBAN MOBILITY AT A
TIPPING POINT”, 2016
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Emission
inventories
The Physical
Science Basis
The Synthesis
Report
Climate Change
Impacts,
Adaptation and
Vulnerability
Mitigation
of
Climate Change
April 2021 April 2022October 2021
July 2021
Global
warming of
1.5 o
C
Oct. 2018 Sept. 2019
Aug. 2019
Land
Oceans
and cryosphere
IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6)
Cities and Climate Change Science ConferenceMarch 2018
May 2018 Expert Meeting on Short Lived Climate Forcers
May 2018 Expert Meeting on Assessing Climate Information for Regions
Talanoa
dialogue
UNFCCC
Global
stocktake
2023
UNFCCC
Some overarching preliminary aspects for the Synthesis Report
• Global Stocktake
• Interaction among emissions, climate, risks and development pathways
• Economic and social costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation in the context
of development pathways
• Adaptation and mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development
• Finance and means of support
May 2019
* Dates are subject to change
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
www.citiesipcc.org
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Estimates for mitigation costs show moderate
effect on development
Reaching 450ppm CO2eq entails consumption losses of 1.7% (1%-4%)
by 2030, 3.4% (2% to 6%) by 2050 and 4.8% (3%-11%) by 2100 relative
to baseline (which grows between 300% to 900% over the course of the
century).
This is equivalent to a reduction in consumption growth over the 21st
century by about 0.06 (0.04-0.14) percentage points a year (relative to
annualized consumption growth that is between 1.6% and 3% per year).
Cost estimates exlude benefits of mitigation (reduced impacts from
climate change). They also exclude other benefits (e.g. improvements
for local air quality).
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Gründerzeitwohnhaus Mariahilfer Straße, 1150 Wien
Generalsanierung und Aufstockung schweren Gasexplosion
Architektur Trimmel Wall Architekten ZTGmbH Bauphysik Schöberl & Pöll GmbH
135
22
3
0
50
100
150
Before
retrofit
After
retrofit
Solar
Energy
HeatEnergykWh/(m²a)
- 85%
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
A broad array of opportunities exist to keep urban emissions at bay
while maintaining or increasing well-being
 Urban design and form
 Energy-efficient transport systems
 Mobility services; e-transactions replacing physical mobility (e-banking, teleconferencing, e-
government, etc)
 Encouraging non-motorized and public transport
 Efficient, small vehicles
 Shared urban mobility schemes
 Energy efficient buildings
 low-energy architecture
 High-efficiency appliances, lighting and equipment
 High performance operation of buildings (mainly commercial)
 Fuel switch to low-carbon energy sources (RES) or high-efficiency
equipment using energy contributing to CC
 Electric vehicles
 Lowering embodied energy in the built infrastructure and products –
 affordable low-carbon, durable construction materials
 Towards the circular economy: reuse and sharing economy
 Carbon storage in construction materials?
 Lifestyle, behavior, culture
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Infrastructure and urban form are strongly
linked and lock‐in patterns of land use,
transport and housing use, and behavior
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Mitigation opportunities through urban
planning:
1. increasing accessibility
2. increasing connectivity
3. increasing land use mix
4. increasing transit options
5. increasing and co-locating employment and
residential densities
6. increasing green space and other carbon sinks
7. Increasing white and light-colored surfaces
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
1,280,000 m²
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The elements of the solution:
Mobility
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
URBAN MOBILITY INNOVATIONS OF THE
DIGITAL ERA: THE ROLE OF DIGITALLY
OPTIMISED SHARED MOBILITY SERVICES
 Based on the study of the OECD’s International Transport
Forum
 Thought experiment: what if all car and bus trips in a city
are provided through fleets of shared vehicles
 based on high-resolution real mobility and network data
from a mid-size European city, namely Lisbon
 shared mobility is delivered by a fleet of six-seat vehicles
(“Shared Taxis”) offering on-demand, door-to-door shared
rides in conjunction with a fleet of 8 and 16 seat mini-buses
65
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
findings: a completely transformed city
 Congestion completely disappears
 traffic emissions reduced by one third
 95% less space was required for public parking
 The vehicle fleet needed is only 3% in size of today's fleet
 total vehicle-kilometres would be 37% less even during peak hours
 Higher vehicle use-> shorter vehicle life cycles -> faster uptake of
newer, cleaner technologies
 more rapid reduction of CO2 emissions from urban mobility
66
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
How else citizens gain from such a
digitally enabled urban mobility future
 No productivity losses due to congestion; commute time can be utilized instead of
driving
 All trips are door-to-door; almost all trips are direct, without need for transfer
 Mobility is much cheaper: prices for journeys in the city could be 50% or less of today
without subsidy
 Significant amounts of space previously dedicated to parking can be converted to
uses that increase livability, from public parks to broader sidewalks, and more and
better bicycle lanes
 Particularly striking is how a shared mobility system improves access and social
inclusion. In the simulation, inequalities in access to employment, education or health
services across the city virtually disappeared
 Air pollution is significantly reduced even without any vehicle or fuel change
 Possible to reduce individual automobile ownership (reducing costs to households)
and parking infrastructure needs around the home (potential for shared ownership
that is spreading in several European cities)
67
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The technologies are available in all cities
68
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Source:
McKinsey:
“urban mobility
at a tipping
point”, 2016
1/06/2018 69
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The window for action is rapidly closing
72% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
and continued emissions at current levels will exhaust the budget
within the next 15-30 years
Amount Used
1870-2016:
565
GtC
Amount
Remaining:
225
GtC
Total Carbon
Budget:
790
GtC
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Urban planning
can make a very
significant
difference in
urban emissions
71
Source: UN 2014 as cited by
Fischedick, CFCC 2015
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Brock Commons: 19-story timber
building
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Responsibility and
opportunity:
A substantial share of
emission increase in the
next few decades will
come from cities
 Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions from
global energy use
 Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million
 This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity and
responsibility
 Cities/municipalities can often take stronger leadership in strong climate
action than nation states due to higher degrees of flexibility, larger room
for individual leadership
today 2035
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Developments since AR5: global emissions have been level
for 3 years despite GDP growth (IEA)
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increased efficiency has been a very
powerful tool to keep emission and
energy demand increases at bay for
decades
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Percapitaresidentialandcommercial
energyuse,1990-2010

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MITIGATION: Challenges and opportunities - Key findings of WGIII in the Fifth Assessment Report With some recent developments

  • 1. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports ©Ocean/Corbis Name Role MITIGATION: Challenges and opportunities Key findings of WGIII in the Fifth Assessment Report With some recent developments Diana Urge-Vorsatz Vice Chair,WGIII Director, Center for Climate Change and Systainable Energy Policy Central European University Riga, June 1, 2018
  • 2. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports 2 GHG emissions growth has accelerated despite reduction efforts.
  • 3. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades. 3 Based on Figure 1.3
  • 4. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations requires moving away from business as usual. 4 Based on Figure 6.7
  • 5. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Lower ambition mitigation goals require similar reductions of GHG emissions. 5 ~3°C Based on Figure 6.7
  • 6. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Limiting warming to 2°C is possible but involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges
  • 7. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports The view to 2050 and beyond Source: UNEP
  • 8. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable ➜ Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% (BAU growth 1.6 - 3%) ➜ This translates into delayed and not forgone growth ➜ Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced climate change ➜ Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to economic growth ➜ Opportunities for economic diversification Source: AR5 WGI and WGII SPMs
  • 9. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy • Many of these technologies exist today Improved carbon sinks • Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes Source: AR5 WGIII SPM Key mitigation strategies
  • 10. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports The elements of the solution: Focus on energy end-use and cities
  • 11. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4% 2010 GHG emissions Energy Sector Agriculture, forests and other land uses Industry Transport Building Sector AR5 WGIII SPM
  • 12. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Allocation of Electricity/Heat Generation Emissions to End-use Sectors for 2010 Source: Figure A.II.2 ElectricityandHeat
  • 13. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Accounting for indirect emissions has key implications on mitigation strategy!
  • 14. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Source: Figure TS.15 Baseline Scenarios: Direct vs. Indirect Emission Accounting Source: Volker Krey, using IPCC AR5 Figure SPM.10, TS.15
  • 15. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Urban infrastructure development can consume much of our remaining carbon budget to a 1.5C target? Source:Bai,X.etal.SixResearch PrioritiesforCitiesandClimate Change.Nature,Mar1,2018.
  • 16. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports The elements of the solution: recent developments for deep carbon mitigation in buildings
  • 17. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports RHW.2 Tower Raiffeisen-Holding NÖ-Vienna office World’s first Passive high-rise office building Architects DI Dieter Hayde and DI Ernst Maurer High-rise benchmarks energy consumption in kWh/m²a 140 95 14 170 80 8 125 55 39 78 135 82 56 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Conventionel US skyscraper Conventional AT skyscraper RHW.2 skyscraper RHW.2 skyscraper User Building equipment Cooling Heating 312 kWh/m²a 570 kWh/m²a Renewable energy bio gas + geothermie - 80% 117 kWh/m²a
  • 18. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
  • 19. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Geschosswohnungsbau Passivhaus Altbausanierung in Graz / Steiermark Bauträger: GIWOG Generalunternehmer: GAP-Solution GmbH 135 5 0 50 100 150 Vor Sanierung Nach Sanierung HeizwärmebedarfkWh/(m²a) - 96%
  • 20. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports At www.passivhausprojekte.de documented Passive houses: Documented Treated Floor Area of Passive houses from 46 Nations without Germany and Austria per end of April 2017
  • 21. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Brock Commons Carbon Impact Source: Naturallywood
  • 22. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
  • 23. First retrofit to Passive House Plus Office building Technical University Vienna Architect: Arch. DI Gerhard Kratochwil Building physics: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH Owner: BIG Bundesimmobilien gesmbH Treated floor area: 7,322 m2 = 80,000 ft² Heating demand: 14 kWh/m2a = 4.4 kBTU/ft²a Heat load: 9 W/m² = 2.85 BTU/ft² Primary energy: 56 kWh/m²a = 17.75 kBTU/ft²a 56 61 0 200 400 600 800 Before retrofit After retrofit Renewable Energy 803 PrimaryEnergykWh/(m²a) - 94%
  • 24. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
  • 25. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports 0 50 100 150 200 250 Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům celkováenergie[kWh/m 2 a] Domácí spotřebiče Vzduchotechnika Ohřev TUV Vytápění - 90% - 75%
  • 26. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Total burden of disease from indoor exposures in European countries as DALY/million population with division to indoor and outdoor sources in the 2010 building stock Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls
  • 27. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Attributable burden of diseases due to indoor exposures in 2010 in EU26 The lighter shade represents the maximum reducible fraction through well operated ventilation systems in high-efficiency buildings Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls
  • 28. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 EJ Moderate Efficiency Deep Efficiency Lock-in Effect 80% 34% 46% The Lock-in Risk: global heating and cooling final energy in two scenarios
  • 29. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
  • 30. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Summary  Emissions are still increasing dynamically  Still, reaching 2C target is possible  But involves immediate, rapid and far-reaching actions  The costs do not significantly affect GDP  There are also many business and economic opportunities with well chosen mitigation pathways  For several options the co-benefits may exceed the climate benefits, mostly in energy efficiency improvements  There are substantial lock-in risks, strategic planning and urgent action can jointly prevent  But much more innovation is needed –ideas involving 21st century technologies (ICT), novel business models or lifestyle shifts
  • 31. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Thank you for your attention Ürge-Vorsatz Diana Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU, and Working Group III IPCC Ipcc.ch Email: vorsatzd@ceu.edu With permission from HVG They keep promising this global warming, they keep promising, but you will see that they will not keep this promise of theirs either!
  • 32. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Supplementary slides
  • 33. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Outline of AR5 WG-III Report 1 Introductory Chapter 2 Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies 3 Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4 Sustainable Development and Equity 5 Drivers, Trends and Mitigation 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways 7 Energy Systems 8 Transport 9 Buildings 10 Industry 11 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12 Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning 13 International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments 14 Regional Development and Cooperation 15 National and Sub-National Policies and Institutions 16 Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues
  • 34. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Increased efficiency has been a very powerful tool to keep emission and energy demand increases at bay for decades
  • 35. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Percapitaresidentialandcommercial energyuse,1990-2010
  • 36. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Thelock-inrisk:heatingandcooling energydemandbytwoscenarios
  • 37. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Total CO2 emissions (per capita) needed to build up today’s infrastructure Infrastructure build-up over the next few decades will result in significant emissions
  • 38. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Future CO2 emissions if developing countries catch up to average developed country level. Infrastructure build-up over the next few decades will result in significant emissions
  • 39. There are several mitigation options that can also contribute towards development goals “Overall, the potential for co‐benefits for energy end‐use measures outweigh the potential for adverse side‐effects, whereas the evidence suggests this may not be the case for all energy supply and AFOLU measures.” (SPM 4.1)
  • 40. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Developments since AR5: global emissions have been level for 3 years despite GDP growth (IEA)
  • 41. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports A substantial share of emission increase in the next few decades will come from cities  Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions from global energy use  Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million  By 2050 urban population is to increase by up to 3 billion  Over 70% of global building energy use increase will take place in developing country cities  This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity and responsibility today 2035
  • 42. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports IPCC AR5: Substantial reductions in emissions will require large changes in investment patterns 42 Based on Figure 16.3
  • 43. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Increasing and co-locating residential and employment densities can lower emissions Higher density leads to less emissions (i.a. shorter distances travelled).
  • 44. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Increasing urban density is a necessary but not sufficient condition for lowering urban emissions Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, courtesy of Karen Seto
  • 45. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Increasing land use mix can significantly reduce emissions Mix of land-use reduces emissions. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 46. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Increasing connectivity can enable multiple modes of transport Improved infrastructural density and design (e.g. streets) reduces emissions. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 47. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Co-location of activities reduces direct and indirect GHG emissions Accessibility to people and places (jobs, housing, services, shopping) reduces emissions. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 48. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports To lower urban emissions, need diverse urban land use mix Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 49. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Sweden UK Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Austria Estonia Finland France Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithunia Croatia Czech Rep. Hungaria Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Cyprus 60,000 Passive Houses exist in 28 European member countries
  • 50. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Gründerzeitbau 1020 Wien, Eberlgasse Bauherr: Andreas Kronberger Unternehmensberatung Bauphysik: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH 178 15 2 0 50 100 150 200 Before retrofit After retrofit Solar Energy HeatEnergykWh/(m²a) - 92%
  • 51. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Passsive houses spread around the world Based on draft UNEP Emissions Gap Report, contributed by PHI
  • 52. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports www.heidelberg-bahnstadt.de World’s largest Passive House city district Zero-Emission-City areal Heidelberg-Bahnstadt 116 ha, 1,700 flats Passive House as Standard for urban development
  • 53. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports How mitigation options can go hand-in- hand with development goals (co- benefits)  Air quality improvement – indoor and outdoor  Health – e.g. through indoor and outdoor air quality improvement, reduced thermal stress, increased activity  Energy security  Efficiency increases access to energy services  fuel poverty could be eliminated  Better employment and economic opportunities through accessivity  Reduced congestion  Others: biodiversity conservation, water availability, food security, income distribution, improved productivity, efficiency of the taxation system, labour supply and employment, urban sprawl, and the sustainability of the growth of developing countries
  • 54. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports TreEhugger daydream…? 1/06/2018 54
  • 55. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Private investment into mobility services is skyrocketing 55 Title of presentation, date, text SOURCE: MCKINSEY: “URBAN MOBILITY AT A TIPPING POINT”, 2016
  • 56. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Emission inventories The Physical Science Basis The Synthesis Report Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation of Climate Change April 2021 April 2022October 2021 July 2021 Global warming of 1.5 o C Oct. 2018 Sept. 2019 Aug. 2019 Land Oceans and cryosphere IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6) Cities and Climate Change Science ConferenceMarch 2018 May 2018 Expert Meeting on Short Lived Climate Forcers May 2018 Expert Meeting on Assessing Climate Information for Regions Talanoa dialogue UNFCCC Global stocktake 2023 UNFCCC Some overarching preliminary aspects for the Synthesis Report • Global Stocktake • Interaction among emissions, climate, risks and development pathways • Economic and social costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation in the context of development pathways • Adaptation and mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development • Finance and means of support May 2019 * Dates are subject to change
  • 57. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports www.citiesipcc.org
  • 58. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Estimates for mitigation costs show moderate effect on development Reaching 450ppm CO2eq entails consumption losses of 1.7% (1%-4%) by 2030, 3.4% (2% to 6%) by 2050 and 4.8% (3%-11%) by 2100 relative to baseline (which grows between 300% to 900% over the course of the century). This is equivalent to a reduction in consumption growth over the 21st century by about 0.06 (0.04-0.14) percentage points a year (relative to annualized consumption growth that is between 1.6% and 3% per year). Cost estimates exlude benefits of mitigation (reduced impacts from climate change). They also exclude other benefits (e.g. improvements for local air quality).
  • 59. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Gründerzeitwohnhaus Mariahilfer Straße, 1150 Wien Generalsanierung und Aufstockung schweren Gasexplosion Architektur Trimmel Wall Architekten ZTGmbH Bauphysik Schöberl & Pöll GmbH 135 22 3 0 50 100 150 Before retrofit After retrofit Solar Energy HeatEnergykWh/(m²a) - 85%
  • 60. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports A broad array of opportunities exist to keep urban emissions at bay while maintaining or increasing well-being  Urban design and form  Energy-efficient transport systems  Mobility services; e-transactions replacing physical mobility (e-banking, teleconferencing, e- government, etc)  Encouraging non-motorized and public transport  Efficient, small vehicles  Shared urban mobility schemes  Energy efficient buildings  low-energy architecture  High-efficiency appliances, lighting and equipment  High performance operation of buildings (mainly commercial)  Fuel switch to low-carbon energy sources (RES) or high-efficiency equipment using energy contributing to CC  Electric vehicles  Lowering embodied energy in the built infrastructure and products –  affordable low-carbon, durable construction materials  Towards the circular economy: reuse and sharing economy  Carbon storage in construction materials?  Lifestyle, behavior, culture
  • 61. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Infrastructure and urban form are strongly linked and lock‐in patterns of land use, transport and housing use, and behavior
  • 62. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Mitigation opportunities through urban planning: 1. increasing accessibility 2. increasing connectivity 3. increasing land use mix 4. increasing transit options 5. increasing and co-locating employment and residential densities 6. increasing green space and other carbon sinks 7. Increasing white and light-colored surfaces
  • 63. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports 1,280,000 m²
  • 64. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports The elements of the solution: Mobility
  • 65. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports URBAN MOBILITY INNOVATIONS OF THE DIGITAL ERA: THE ROLE OF DIGITALLY OPTIMISED SHARED MOBILITY SERVICES  Based on the study of the OECD’s International Transport Forum  Thought experiment: what if all car and bus trips in a city are provided through fleets of shared vehicles  based on high-resolution real mobility and network data from a mid-size European city, namely Lisbon  shared mobility is delivered by a fleet of six-seat vehicles (“Shared Taxis”) offering on-demand, door-to-door shared rides in conjunction with a fleet of 8 and 16 seat mini-buses 65
  • 66. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports findings: a completely transformed city  Congestion completely disappears  traffic emissions reduced by one third  95% less space was required for public parking  The vehicle fleet needed is only 3% in size of today's fleet  total vehicle-kilometres would be 37% less even during peak hours  Higher vehicle use-> shorter vehicle life cycles -> faster uptake of newer, cleaner technologies  more rapid reduction of CO2 emissions from urban mobility 66
  • 67. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports How else citizens gain from such a digitally enabled urban mobility future  No productivity losses due to congestion; commute time can be utilized instead of driving  All trips are door-to-door; almost all trips are direct, without need for transfer  Mobility is much cheaper: prices for journeys in the city could be 50% or less of today without subsidy  Significant amounts of space previously dedicated to parking can be converted to uses that increase livability, from public parks to broader sidewalks, and more and better bicycle lanes  Particularly striking is how a shared mobility system improves access and social inclusion. In the simulation, inequalities in access to employment, education or health services across the city virtually disappeared  Air pollution is significantly reduced even without any vehicle or fuel change  Possible to reduce individual automobile ownership (reducing costs to households) and parking infrastructure needs around the home (potential for shared ownership that is spreading in several European cities) 67
  • 68. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports The technologies are available in all cities 68
  • 69. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Source: McKinsey: “urban mobility at a tipping point”, 2016 1/06/2018 69
  • 70. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports The window for action is rapidly closing 72% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used and continued emissions at current levels will exhaust the budget within the next 15-30 years Amount Used 1870-2016: 565 GtC Amount Remaining: 225 GtC Total Carbon Budget: 790 GtC
  • 71. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Urban planning can make a very significant difference in urban emissions 71 Source: UN 2014 as cited by Fischedick, CFCC 2015
  • 72. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Brock Commons: 19-story timber building
  • 73. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Responsibility and opportunity: A substantial share of emission increase in the next few decades will come from cities  Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions from global energy use  Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million  This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity and responsibility  Cities/municipalities can often take stronger leadership in strong climate action than nation states due to higher degrees of flexibility, larger room for individual leadership today 2035
  • 74. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
  • 75. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Developments since AR5: global emissions have been level for 3 years despite GDP growth (IEA)
  • 76. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Increased efficiency has been a very powerful tool to keep emission and energy demand increases at bay for decades
  • 77. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports Percapitaresidentialandcommercial energyuse,1990-2010

Editor's Notes

  1. GHG emission growth has accelerated during the last decade. Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average by 1.0 giga tonne carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) (2.2%) per year from 2000 to 2010 compared to 0.4 GtCO2eq (1.3%) per year from 1970 to 2000. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from 2000 to 2010 and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO2eq/yr in 2010. The global economic crisis 2007/2008 only temporarily reduced emissions. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contribute most to GHG emission levels and growth. After 2010 these emissions continued to grow by about 3% between 2010 and 2011 and by about 1-2% between 2011 and 2012.
  2. Long-term scenarios can be assessed in a policy-relevant, but non-prescriptive way, by outlining their technological, economic and institutional requirements. Let us first look at the different characteristics of emission pathways. In most baseline scenarios GHG emissions continue to grow over the 21st century leading to atmospheric concentrations of 1000ppm CO2eq and more.
  3. Most mitigation scenarios span atmospheric concentration levels in 2100 from 430 ppm CO2eq to roughly 720 ppm CO2eq. These concentration ranges translate into different mean temperature increases by the end of the 21st century. Mitigation scenarios in which it is likely that the temperature change caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions can be kept to less than 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels are characterized by atmospheric concentrations in 2100 of about 450 ppm CO2eq. Scenarios reaching these concentrations by 2100 are characterized by lower global GHG emissions in 2050 than in 2010, 40% to 70% lower globally, and emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below in 2100. But also less ambitious mitigation scenarios, in which the likely temperature change can be kept below 3°C, require a substantial deviation from baseline.
  4. In this section, the evidence on long-term scenarios is assessed. The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e.g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e.g., the carbon cycle). For the purpose of this assessment, roughly 300 baseline scenarios and 900 mitigation scenarios were collected through an open call from integrated modelling teams around the world. The assessment of this literature reveals that limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges. But even much less ambitious mitigation scenarios require a fundamental deviation from baseline.
  5. Pink: medium 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with 50–66% chance; orange: likely 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with >66% chance; blue: 1.5 °C scenarios—limiting warming in 2100 to below 1.5 °C with >50% chance. Thin black lines are scenarios included in the IPCC AR5 scenario database.
  6. In this section, the evidence on long-term scenarios is assessed. The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e.g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e.g., the carbon cycle). For the purpose of this assessment, roughly 300 baseline scenarios and 900 mitigation scenarios were collected through an open call from integrated modelling teams around the world. The assessment of this literature reveals that limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges. But even much less ambitious mitigation scenarios require a fundamental deviation from baseline.
  7. In this section, the evidence on long-term scenarios is assessed. The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e.g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e.g., the carbon cycle). For the purpose of this assessment, roughly 300 baseline scenarios and 900 mitigation scenarios were collected through an open call from integrated modelling teams around the world. The assessment of this literature reveals that limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges. But even much less ambitious mitigation scenarios require a fundamental deviation from baseline.
  8. NOT FROM IPCC
  9. NOT FROM IPCC!!
  10. About CRV: Quoting Müller (2013): In accounting, the value of an asset can be expressed, among others, as the historical cost (original monetary value) or as the replacement cost (cost of replacing an asset with current prices). Similarly, the carbon footprint of a stock can be defined as the historical emissions produced to build up the stock, or as the carbon emissions that would be generated if the existing stock was replaced using current technologies. As emissions per ton of material produced tend to decline, the replacement value expressed in carbon (here called “carbon replacement value, CRV”) is generally smaller than the historical value expressed in carbon (here called “CHV”). In this study, we determine the CRV of stocks, because this value is better suited when using the stocks in industrialized countries as a benchmark for stocks in developing countries. The CRVP was determined for the year 2008 using the three key materials steel, cement, and aluminum as a proxy. In 2008, these materials accounted for nearly half of industrial emissions (25% steel, 19% cement, and 3% aluminum) and 17% of total energy- and process-related CO2 emissions.16 Emissions of other materials are either less significant for infrastructure stocks (e.g., plastic and paper, which together constitute about 3% energy- and process-related emissions) or contribute significantly smaller amounts of emissions (e.g., other metals, gravel). Talking points: Concerning emissions from building urban structures (building up stocks) it is important to understand the magnitude of future emissions awaiting us if the developing world would mimic the pathway western countries have taken. The y-axis shows the amount of emissions (per person) needed to build the infrastructures (houses, transport (streets, railways, bridges), industry plants) existing in respective countries. You can see that developed countries (Annex I) have a far greater stock than Non-Annex I countries.
  11. Talking points: The shaded area shows how much emissions would be needed to build in the rest of the world infrastructure of the level as existing today in developed countries. This rough estimate takes the expected increase of world population until 2050 into account (see x-axis). Compare the size of this area to the yellow-red coloured bars to see that these emissions would far outstrip the emissions needed to build up today’s infrastructure.
  12. Mitigation scenarios in which policies stabilize atmospheric concentrations (without overshoot) in the range from 430 to 530 ppm CO2eq by 2100 lead to substantial shifts in annual investment flows during the period 2010–2029 compared to baseline scenarios. Annual incremental energy efficiency investments in transport, buildings and industry is projected to increase by about USD 336 (1–641) billion, frequently involving modernization of existing equipment. Annual investment in conventional fossil fuel technologies associated with the electricity supply sector is projected to decline by about USD 30 (2–166) billion (median: -20% compared to 2010) while annual investment in low-carbon electricity supply (i.e., renewables, nuclear and electricity generation with CCS) is projected to rise by about USD 147 (31–360) billion (median: +100% compared to 2010). For comparison, global total annual investment in the energy system is presently about USD 1200 billion.
  13. Aktuell 20.05.2010 Orte unter 5.000 Einwohner
  14. NOT FROM IPCC just illustration
  15. NOT FROM IPCC just illustration
  16. Aktuell 20.05.2010 Orte unter 5.000 Einwohner
  17. This figure shows four concepts by which urban form can be characterized – these also function as drivers of urban emissions. (1) The 2nd column shows the effect of the 4 drivers on Vehicles Kilometer Travelled (VKT). It turns out the increasing the drivers leads (in all but 2 cases) to a reduction of distances travelled, which in turn means less emissions. (2) the 3rd column describes how the drivers are measured. (3) The 4th column shows how the drivers co-vary with the (main) driver density. (4) the last columns illustrate what leads to higher resp. lower emissions.
  18. Aktuell 20.05.2010 Orte unter 5.000 Einwohner
  19. In this section, the evidence on long-term scenarios is assessed. The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e.g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e.g., the carbon cycle). For the purpose of this assessment, roughly 300 baseline scenarios and 900 mitigation scenarios were collected through an open call from integrated modelling teams around the world. The assessment of this literature reveals that limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges. But even much less ambitious mitigation scenarios require a fundamental deviation from baseline.