The credit market is extremely tight according to this document:
1) Lending rates have increased substantially, with cash flow loans over 15% and ABL loans at LIBOR + 500 to 600 basis points.
2) There is little to no mezzanine lending, DIP financing, or exit financing available as major lenders withdraw from the market.
3) Bank lending standards have tightened more than at any other time in the last 20 years according to the Federal Reserve, and lenders are de-leveraging their balance sheets by selling loan participations.
4) An estimated $46.6 billion of debt securities may need to be liquidated in the near future, further competing for
2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst Airline Market Overview Commecial AviationEmbraer RI
The document provides an overview of the airline market from the perspective of aircraft in the 30-120 seat segment. It discusses trends in the industry including increased low-cost carrier competition, higher fuel prices, and efforts by airlines to reduce costs. Opportunities for regional jets include replacing aging fleets in China, Russia, and other growing markets. The E-Jets family from Embraer is positioned as helping airlines improve efficiency through right-sizing aircraft on routes.
The document summarizes the performance of Global Banking and Markets in the first half of 2008. Key points include:
- Global Banking and Markets contributed 26% of the group's pre-tax profits despite challenging market conditions.
- Strength in emerging markets like Asia Pacific and Latin America helped offset losses elsewhere.
- Writedowns were taken on subprime, credit, and leveraged loan exposures totaling $3.9 billion.
- Two of the group's structured investment vehicles, Cullinan and Asscher, had their assets transferred or sold into three securities investment conduits to provide more stable funding.
K bank fx & rates strategies views on thailand’s bond market in q3KBank Fx Dealing Room
- The document summarizes views on Thailand's bond market in Q3, expecting about THB100 billion in government bond issuance, excluding THB40 billion in inflation-linked bonds. Fiscal conditions remain strong with revenue exceeding forecasts.
- It discusses details of the bond issuance schedule, and notes the introduction of Thailand's first inflation-linked bonds in July. Savings bonds will be issued in September.
- Monetary Policy Committee minutes reaffirmed inflation as a near-term concern over slowing global growth, though risks remain including energy prices and interest rate normalization. The policy rate forecast of 3.50% by year-end remains intact.
Several Canadian banks reported dividend increases in August 2012, including Bank of Montreal (2.9%), Bank of Nova Scotia (3.6%), CIBC (4.4%), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (6.9%). Despite higher profits and dividends, bank share prices remained below 2010 levels. The document questions whether the market is overreacting to concerns from Europe and underestimating the banks' ability to continue growing profits. It argues investors should focus on long-term company fundamentals like dividend growth rather than volatile short-term share prices.
1) The document discusses Bank of America's enterprise risk management strategies and capabilities. It highlights how the bank manages various types of risk, including credit, market, and operational risk across its consumer and commercial businesses.
2) Key strengths that help the bank manage risk include its breadth of client access, industry insights, and integrated risk management structure.
3) The bank has improved its risk profile by rebalancing its commercial credit portfolio and enhancing risk monitoring tools.
This document discusses trends in household debt in Malaysia. It notes that since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysian banks have shifted their lending focus from businesses to households. Household debt has grown significantly, with the household sector accounting for over half of total bank loans by 2007, up from one third before the crisis. The growth has been driven by factors like economic growth, low inflation and interest rates, financial sector liberalization, and government policies promoting home ownership. Most household debt is held in the form of mortgages, which make up 55% of total household debt.
The US apartment market outlook remains uncertain as the economy continues to weaken. While apartment completions are expected to slow considerably in the near future, most new units under construction are concentrated in a few metros. Rent cuts have made new development deals difficult to finance, which may delay a return of new construction supply. Current apartment demand is absorbing new units but existing properties continue to lose residents. Lowering rent and standards for renters has helped occupancy rates exceed expectations so far in 2009, though revenues remain negative across property age sectors.
Financial Analysis - Banque Cantonale Vaudoise - Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and corporate banking services. BCV operates primarily in the Canton of Vaud.pdf
2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst Airline Market Overview Commecial AviationEmbraer RI
The document provides an overview of the airline market from the perspective of aircraft in the 30-120 seat segment. It discusses trends in the industry including increased low-cost carrier competition, higher fuel prices, and efforts by airlines to reduce costs. Opportunities for regional jets include replacing aging fleets in China, Russia, and other growing markets. The E-Jets family from Embraer is positioned as helping airlines improve efficiency through right-sizing aircraft on routes.
The document summarizes the performance of Global Banking and Markets in the first half of 2008. Key points include:
- Global Banking and Markets contributed 26% of the group's pre-tax profits despite challenging market conditions.
- Strength in emerging markets like Asia Pacific and Latin America helped offset losses elsewhere.
- Writedowns were taken on subprime, credit, and leveraged loan exposures totaling $3.9 billion.
- Two of the group's structured investment vehicles, Cullinan and Asscher, had their assets transferred or sold into three securities investment conduits to provide more stable funding.
K bank fx & rates strategies views on thailand’s bond market in q3KBank Fx Dealing Room
- The document summarizes views on Thailand's bond market in Q3, expecting about THB100 billion in government bond issuance, excluding THB40 billion in inflation-linked bonds. Fiscal conditions remain strong with revenue exceeding forecasts.
- It discusses details of the bond issuance schedule, and notes the introduction of Thailand's first inflation-linked bonds in July. Savings bonds will be issued in September.
- Monetary Policy Committee minutes reaffirmed inflation as a near-term concern over slowing global growth, though risks remain including energy prices and interest rate normalization. The policy rate forecast of 3.50% by year-end remains intact.
Several Canadian banks reported dividend increases in August 2012, including Bank of Montreal (2.9%), Bank of Nova Scotia (3.6%), CIBC (4.4%), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (6.9%). Despite higher profits and dividends, bank share prices remained below 2010 levels. The document questions whether the market is overreacting to concerns from Europe and underestimating the banks' ability to continue growing profits. It argues investors should focus on long-term company fundamentals like dividend growth rather than volatile short-term share prices.
1) The document discusses Bank of America's enterprise risk management strategies and capabilities. It highlights how the bank manages various types of risk, including credit, market, and operational risk across its consumer and commercial businesses.
2) Key strengths that help the bank manage risk include its breadth of client access, industry insights, and integrated risk management structure.
3) The bank has improved its risk profile by rebalancing its commercial credit portfolio and enhancing risk monitoring tools.
This document discusses trends in household debt in Malaysia. It notes that since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysian banks have shifted their lending focus from businesses to households. Household debt has grown significantly, with the household sector accounting for over half of total bank loans by 2007, up from one third before the crisis. The growth has been driven by factors like economic growth, low inflation and interest rates, financial sector liberalization, and government policies promoting home ownership. Most household debt is held in the form of mortgages, which make up 55% of total household debt.
The US apartment market outlook remains uncertain as the economy continues to weaken. While apartment completions are expected to slow considerably in the near future, most new units under construction are concentrated in a few metros. Rent cuts have made new development deals difficult to finance, which may delay a return of new construction supply. Current apartment demand is absorbing new units but existing properties continue to lose residents. Lowering rent and standards for renters has helped occupancy rates exceed expectations so far in 2009, though revenues remain negative across property age sectors.
Financial Analysis - Banque Cantonale Vaudoise - Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and corporate banking services. BCV operates primarily in the Canton of Vaud.pdf
Sempra Energy exceeded all of its goals for 2000:
- Its unregulated businesses increased earnings to 18% of total from 1% previously, on track to meet its goal of one-third of earnings from these businesses by 2003.
- Sempra Energy Trading expanded significantly in Europe and other key markets, realizing $155 million in net income compared to $15 million targeted, over eight times its 1999 earnings.
- Sempra Energy Resources brought one new power plant online and advanced three additional projects toward construction to support the company's overall growth strategy.
Re-building confidence in the lending market, Working Party on Land Registrat...LandRegistry
Re-building confidence in the lending market, Working Party on Land Registration UNECE 2012, London, Paul Broadhead, Head of Mortgage Policy, Building Societies Association
Toronto Real Estate Stats December 2009John Helfrich
The document provides a summary of residential real estate sales data for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in December 2009 and for the full year 2009. Some key points:
- Total home sales in the GTA were 5,541 in December 2009, up 17% from 2008. The average price was $411,931.
- For all of 2009, home sales were 87,308, up from 2008. The average price was $395,460, a 4% increase over 2008.
- By property type, detached houses made up 44.2% of December sales, with an average price of $439,000. Condo apartments accounted for 28% of sales at an average price of $274,
The document summarizes the global financial crisis of 2008 and its impact. It discusses [1] how major banks around the world incurred huge losses and write-downs from the crisis, with Citigroup and Wachovia facing over $60 billion in losses. [2] It describes how the crisis led to a global recession, with stock markets and economies around the world declining sharply. [3] It then outlines some of the effects of the crisis in India, such as layoffs, falling corporate confidence, and the Indian media and entertainment industry being badly hit by recession.
This document provides an earnings report for H1 2012. Key highlights include:
- Net income surged 69.1% to RUB 1,204 million compared to H1 2011. Assets grew 5.9% and client funds increased 6.2%.
- Net interest income increased 37% to RUB 4,411 million driven by a rise in net interest margin to 4.7% from 3.7% in H1 2011.
- Non-performing loans fell to 8.08% of total loans and provisions covered overdue loans by 113%. Return on equity improved to 12.7%.
- Associated Materials Inc. is a leading manufacturer and distributor of vinyl windows, vinyl siding, aluminum and steel siding, and accessories, headquartered in Cuyahoga Falls, OH. It has recently been negatively impacted by soft repair and remodeling markets, rising material costs, and slowing vinyl siding growth.
- The report initiates coverage on Associated Materials' bonds with a HOLD recommendation on the 9.75% Senior Subordinated Notes and a SELL recommendation on the 11.25% Senior Discount Notes.
- Key risks to the company include further raw material cost increases, competition from fiber-cement siding, a slowing housing market, and a recent CEO resignation.
Credit Suisse Chemical and Ag Science Conferencefinance5
The document summarizes Dow's financial performance in the first half of 2008, its transformational strategy, and actions taken to implement that strategy. It discusses the formation of K-Dow Petrochemicals, a joint venture with Kuwait Petroleum that will create a major petrochemicals company. It also covers Dow's acquisition of Rohm and Haas, a leading specialty chemicals company, which will accelerate Dow's growth and increase its percentage of revenues from higher-margin specialty businesses.
Genworth MI Canada Inc. is a private mortgage insurer in Canada. It insures first-time home buyers, with average home prices about 20% lower than the market. The housing market is stabilizing with slowing home price growth and flat outlook. Genworth has a well-diversified insurance portfolio with high credit quality borrowers and regional dispersion tracking mortgage originations.
The document discusses Ball Corporation's performance in 2000. It notes that Ball focuses on providing quality packaging products and services. In 2000, Ball took actions to improve efficiencies, including closing less efficient plants, which resulted in a $55 million restructuring charge. However, earnings were $3.70 per share before this charge, up 17.5% from 1999. Ball also reduced its debt by $59 million and repurchased 1.8 million shares. The actions positioned Ball favorably for future growth. The company will continue pursuing acquisition opportunities that add shareholder value. Leadership of the company changed, with R. David Hoover becoming the new CEO.
Eletropaulo's total market grew 3.3% in 2005. The company received additional revenue from tariff adjustments and bond/debenture issuances. However, the company reported a loss of R$184.4 million due to extraordinary provisions and allowances, including R$346.4 million for MGSP and R$43.7 million for increased PIS/COFINS taxes. The loss and debt costs were expected to improve in 2006 as the extraordinary impacts were non-recurring and debt was restructured at lower costs.
EMC held an Innovation Day event where Joe Tucci, Chairman and CEO, spoke. EMC spends over 12% of annual revenue on R&D and has acquired 30 technology companies in the past 4 years to provide customers innovative information infrastructure products and solutions. EMC's strategy is to deliver an information infrastructure that stores, protects, optimizes, and leverages customer information through networked storage, availability, security, archiving, content management, and other solutions.
2007* Airline Marketing Embraer Day 2007Embraer RI
This document summarizes an Embraer Day 2007 presentation on the airline market and Embraer programs for aircraft in the 30-120 seat segment. It includes the following key points:
1) The air transport industry has seen strong demand growth in recent years and is projected to continue growing. However, airlines have had to work hard to reduce costs to offset rising fuel prices.
2) The regional jet market served by Embraer's ERJ145 family and the 70-120 seat market served by Embraer's E-Jets have both evolved in recent years.
3) Projections show the airline industry as a whole and most regions are expected to have positive net results in 2007 and 2008
The 10th Annual Latin American Conference hosted by Santander will take place from January 17-20, 2006 in Acapulco, Mexico. Raul Adalberto de Campos, the Investor Relations Executive Manager for Petrobras, will present at the conference. The presentation may contain forecasts about future events involving risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from expectations. Petrobras is not obligated to update any forecasts based on new information.
The document summarizes a meeting between TIM Brasil and investors in September 2012.
1) TIM Brasil's mobile business revenue grew 11% while Brazilian GDP grew only 1.9%, showing that mobile is driving economic growth.
2) Fixed to mobile substitution continues to impact fixed line incumbents, benefiting the mobile segment. TIM's mobile revenue grew 7.9% in 2Q12 while fixed revenue declined for competitors.
3) TIM's 2Q12 results met guidance, with total revenue up 7% and EBITDA up 6%. Revenue was impacted by MTR cuts but growth was driven by prepaid and data. Fiber deployment
This document presented opportunities for finance and investment in Saudi Arabia. It showed charts and data on topics like oil prices and production, GDP growth by sector, government spending packages, consumer spending indicators, stock market performance, bank lending, deposits and profits. Key data and forecasts were also provided for nominal GDP, real GDP growth, oil and economic indicators, government finances, inflation, external trade and social demographics through 2012. The overall document highlighted the strong economic growth and opportunities in Saudi Arabia.
1) The document provides information about a large Canadian financial services company that has been in business since 1926 and serves approximately one million Canadians through more than 400 offices across the country.
2) It details the variety of financial products and services offered, including mutual funds, RRSPs, mortgages, loans, insurance policies, and investment advice.
3) The document also discusses common financial challenges facing Canadians, such as low retirement savings, debt, taxes, disability, and choosing appropriate financial advice and vehicles. Households without an advisor tend to have fewer assets and make less use of savings tools like RRSPs and TFSAs.
Planning Process. This presentation outlines how we get results for you and your family. If you are tired of having more questions than answers, give me a call. 403 220-9654.
The document examines expected U.S. GDP growth rates based on past trends and forecasts. It analyzes annual GDP growth from 1991 to 2010, which varied from periods of increase to decrease, with the highest growth in 2000 at 6.39%. Forecasts expect 2012 growth in the 3.3-3.7% range. GDP is determined either through the income approach (compensation + profits + taxes - subsidies) or expenditure approach (consumption + government spending + investments + exports - imports). A positive GDP reflects economic growth while negative GDP indicates a recession.
The number of active US venture capital firms peaked in 2000 at over 1,000 firms but has since declined to around 450 firms in 2010. Venture capital fundraising has slowed with new commitments below levels of company investment. The vast majority of capital is raised through existing venture capital managers raising follow-on funds, rather than first-time managers. Despite economic turbulence, over 1,100 companies received venture capital funding in 2011, consistent with typical annual levels of 1,000-1,300 companies. Venture capital investing in Southern California generally tracked national trends, with some decline from peak levels in the late 1990s/early 2000s.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
This document discusses research funding and commercialization in Ireland. It provides an overview of funding mechanisms like the Commercialisation Fund that support bringing research out of universities and into industry. It also shows that more expertise, experience, and connections between researchers and businesses can help speed up commercialization, as evidenced by two case studies - one that took longer due to a lack of commercial skills, and another that was faster with industry experience. Overall, the document emphasizes the importance of commercializing research for the economy and encourages researchers to work with groups like Enterprise Ireland to help move ideas from the lab to the marketplace.
Sempra Energy exceeded all of its goals for 2000:
- Its unregulated businesses increased earnings to 18% of total from 1% previously, on track to meet its goal of one-third of earnings from these businesses by 2003.
- Sempra Energy Trading expanded significantly in Europe and other key markets, realizing $155 million in net income compared to $15 million targeted, over eight times its 1999 earnings.
- Sempra Energy Resources brought one new power plant online and advanced three additional projects toward construction to support the company's overall growth strategy.
Re-building confidence in the lending market, Working Party on Land Registrat...LandRegistry
Re-building confidence in the lending market, Working Party on Land Registration UNECE 2012, London, Paul Broadhead, Head of Mortgage Policy, Building Societies Association
Toronto Real Estate Stats December 2009John Helfrich
The document provides a summary of residential real estate sales data for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in December 2009 and for the full year 2009. Some key points:
- Total home sales in the GTA were 5,541 in December 2009, up 17% from 2008. The average price was $411,931.
- For all of 2009, home sales were 87,308, up from 2008. The average price was $395,460, a 4% increase over 2008.
- By property type, detached houses made up 44.2% of December sales, with an average price of $439,000. Condo apartments accounted for 28% of sales at an average price of $274,
The document summarizes the global financial crisis of 2008 and its impact. It discusses [1] how major banks around the world incurred huge losses and write-downs from the crisis, with Citigroup and Wachovia facing over $60 billion in losses. [2] It describes how the crisis led to a global recession, with stock markets and economies around the world declining sharply. [3] It then outlines some of the effects of the crisis in India, such as layoffs, falling corporate confidence, and the Indian media and entertainment industry being badly hit by recession.
This document provides an earnings report for H1 2012. Key highlights include:
- Net income surged 69.1% to RUB 1,204 million compared to H1 2011. Assets grew 5.9% and client funds increased 6.2%.
- Net interest income increased 37% to RUB 4,411 million driven by a rise in net interest margin to 4.7% from 3.7% in H1 2011.
- Non-performing loans fell to 8.08% of total loans and provisions covered overdue loans by 113%. Return on equity improved to 12.7%.
- Associated Materials Inc. is a leading manufacturer and distributor of vinyl windows, vinyl siding, aluminum and steel siding, and accessories, headquartered in Cuyahoga Falls, OH. It has recently been negatively impacted by soft repair and remodeling markets, rising material costs, and slowing vinyl siding growth.
- The report initiates coverage on Associated Materials' bonds with a HOLD recommendation on the 9.75% Senior Subordinated Notes and a SELL recommendation on the 11.25% Senior Discount Notes.
- Key risks to the company include further raw material cost increases, competition from fiber-cement siding, a slowing housing market, and a recent CEO resignation.
Credit Suisse Chemical and Ag Science Conferencefinance5
The document summarizes Dow's financial performance in the first half of 2008, its transformational strategy, and actions taken to implement that strategy. It discusses the formation of K-Dow Petrochemicals, a joint venture with Kuwait Petroleum that will create a major petrochemicals company. It also covers Dow's acquisition of Rohm and Haas, a leading specialty chemicals company, which will accelerate Dow's growth and increase its percentage of revenues from higher-margin specialty businesses.
Genworth MI Canada Inc. is a private mortgage insurer in Canada. It insures first-time home buyers, with average home prices about 20% lower than the market. The housing market is stabilizing with slowing home price growth and flat outlook. Genworth has a well-diversified insurance portfolio with high credit quality borrowers and regional dispersion tracking mortgage originations.
The document discusses Ball Corporation's performance in 2000. It notes that Ball focuses on providing quality packaging products and services. In 2000, Ball took actions to improve efficiencies, including closing less efficient plants, which resulted in a $55 million restructuring charge. However, earnings were $3.70 per share before this charge, up 17.5% from 1999. Ball also reduced its debt by $59 million and repurchased 1.8 million shares. The actions positioned Ball favorably for future growth. The company will continue pursuing acquisition opportunities that add shareholder value. Leadership of the company changed, with R. David Hoover becoming the new CEO.
Eletropaulo's total market grew 3.3% in 2005. The company received additional revenue from tariff adjustments and bond/debenture issuances. However, the company reported a loss of R$184.4 million due to extraordinary provisions and allowances, including R$346.4 million for MGSP and R$43.7 million for increased PIS/COFINS taxes. The loss and debt costs were expected to improve in 2006 as the extraordinary impacts were non-recurring and debt was restructured at lower costs.
EMC held an Innovation Day event where Joe Tucci, Chairman and CEO, spoke. EMC spends over 12% of annual revenue on R&D and has acquired 30 technology companies in the past 4 years to provide customers innovative information infrastructure products and solutions. EMC's strategy is to deliver an information infrastructure that stores, protects, optimizes, and leverages customer information through networked storage, availability, security, archiving, content management, and other solutions.
2007* Airline Marketing Embraer Day 2007Embraer RI
This document summarizes an Embraer Day 2007 presentation on the airline market and Embraer programs for aircraft in the 30-120 seat segment. It includes the following key points:
1) The air transport industry has seen strong demand growth in recent years and is projected to continue growing. However, airlines have had to work hard to reduce costs to offset rising fuel prices.
2) The regional jet market served by Embraer's ERJ145 family and the 70-120 seat market served by Embraer's E-Jets have both evolved in recent years.
3) Projections show the airline industry as a whole and most regions are expected to have positive net results in 2007 and 2008
The 10th Annual Latin American Conference hosted by Santander will take place from January 17-20, 2006 in Acapulco, Mexico. Raul Adalberto de Campos, the Investor Relations Executive Manager for Petrobras, will present at the conference. The presentation may contain forecasts about future events involving risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from expectations. Petrobras is not obligated to update any forecasts based on new information.
The document summarizes a meeting between TIM Brasil and investors in September 2012.
1) TIM Brasil's mobile business revenue grew 11% while Brazilian GDP grew only 1.9%, showing that mobile is driving economic growth.
2) Fixed to mobile substitution continues to impact fixed line incumbents, benefiting the mobile segment. TIM's mobile revenue grew 7.9% in 2Q12 while fixed revenue declined for competitors.
3) TIM's 2Q12 results met guidance, with total revenue up 7% and EBITDA up 6%. Revenue was impacted by MTR cuts but growth was driven by prepaid and data. Fiber deployment
This document presented opportunities for finance and investment in Saudi Arabia. It showed charts and data on topics like oil prices and production, GDP growth by sector, government spending packages, consumer spending indicators, stock market performance, bank lending, deposits and profits. Key data and forecasts were also provided for nominal GDP, real GDP growth, oil and economic indicators, government finances, inflation, external trade and social demographics through 2012. The overall document highlighted the strong economic growth and opportunities in Saudi Arabia.
1) The document provides information about a large Canadian financial services company that has been in business since 1926 and serves approximately one million Canadians through more than 400 offices across the country.
2) It details the variety of financial products and services offered, including mutual funds, RRSPs, mortgages, loans, insurance policies, and investment advice.
3) The document also discusses common financial challenges facing Canadians, such as low retirement savings, debt, taxes, disability, and choosing appropriate financial advice and vehicles. Households without an advisor tend to have fewer assets and make less use of savings tools like RRSPs and TFSAs.
Planning Process. This presentation outlines how we get results for you and your family. If you are tired of having more questions than answers, give me a call. 403 220-9654.
The document examines expected U.S. GDP growth rates based on past trends and forecasts. It analyzes annual GDP growth from 1991 to 2010, which varied from periods of increase to decrease, with the highest growth in 2000 at 6.39%. Forecasts expect 2012 growth in the 3.3-3.7% range. GDP is determined either through the income approach (compensation + profits + taxes - subsidies) or expenditure approach (consumption + government spending + investments + exports - imports). A positive GDP reflects economic growth while negative GDP indicates a recession.
The number of active US venture capital firms peaked in 2000 at over 1,000 firms but has since declined to around 450 firms in 2010. Venture capital fundraising has slowed with new commitments below levels of company investment. The vast majority of capital is raised through existing venture capital managers raising follow-on funds, rather than first-time managers. Despite economic turbulence, over 1,100 companies received venture capital funding in 2011, consistent with typical annual levels of 1,000-1,300 companies. Venture capital investing in Southern California generally tracked national trends, with some decline from peak levels in the late 1990s/early 2000s.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
This document discusses research funding and commercialization in Ireland. It provides an overview of funding mechanisms like the Commercialisation Fund that support bringing research out of universities and into industry. It also shows that more expertise, experience, and connections between researchers and businesses can help speed up commercialization, as evidenced by two case studies - one that took longer due to a lack of commercial skills, and another that was faster with industry experience. Overall, the document emphasizes the importance of commercializing research for the economy and encourages researchers to work with groups like Enterprise Ireland to help move ideas from the lab to the marketplace.
Rosemarie Anderson, Federal Highway Administration, shared information about addressing rural road safety in this session at the 2012 National Rural Transportation Peer Learning Conference, April 25-27 in Burlington, VT.
Marco Kamiya New Orleans SMEs And Financing Organization of American States OEAMarco Kamiya
This document discusses financing challenges for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and new firms in Latin America. It notes that SMEs in the region do not grow as much as they could due to low availability of financing for startups and expansions. Financial markets in Latin America also lag behind markets in emerging Asian countries in terms of development and size relative to GDP. Access to capital remains a major obstacle for SMEs and new firms seeking to grow in Latin America.
2012 the year we changed banking by resurgent performanceNatalie Hall
This document discusses the need for banks to change their strategies and business models in 2012. It notes that past years have not been outstanding for banks and that change is required to improve performance. Banks are encouraged to find niche markets, improve customer profitability modeling, differentiate themselves from large banks, cut costs deeper, and optimize their branch networks. The realities of further industry consolidation, the importance of scale, rising regulatory costs, and narrow margins are also addressed. Banks are urged to think differently and adopt new strategies to become more relevant.
CUPE’s national pension trustee training began with a panel on the state of public and workplace pensions. CUPE economist Toby Sanger kicked off the discussion with a overview of how the economic crisis and its fallout will affect pensions.
1) Bank of America Chairman and CEO Ken Lewis presented at a Goldman Sachs conference on December 12, 2007 to discuss the company's current position and outlook.
2) The presentation highlighted Bank of America's diverse business lines including consumer banking, wealth management, and corporate and investment banking that contribute to earnings.
3) It also discussed opportunities for growth through initiatives in areas like wealth management, retirement services, and expanding consumer credit and real estate lending to existing customers.
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Corporate Occupier Conditions Industrial December 2011hoet
This document summarizes industrial occupier market conditions in EMEA in December 2011. It notes that while take-up has been ahead of last year so far, signs of slowing activity are emerging due to renewed economic uncertainty in the Eurozone. Limited development has led to tighter supply, and reduced developer confidence and financing constraints will further limit new speculative developments. Prime rents have increased in many markets but the rate of growth is starting to slow down.
EMEA Corporate Occupier Conditions : Industrial occupiers respond to economic...JLL France
Year-to-date take-up is ahead of the equivalent period last year
but there are now signs of slowing activity levels due to renewed
economic uncertainty.
Limited completions have led to choice being markedly tighter
compared to last year. Reduced developer confidence and
constrained finance will continue to limit speculative
development. Occupier choice is, therefore, expected to be
further squeezed in 2012.
Prime rents have increased in many markets fuelled by strong
competition witnessed during H1 and falling supply levels,
however the rate of increase is now starting to abate.
The CEO’s Dilemma - How to drive efficient innovation in the organizationJoeBarkai
Product organizations spend considerable effort and resources on innovation. However, many companies are engages in unfocused and inefficient innovation that does not support the company\'s strategic vision. In fact, many companies seem to engage in innovation for innovation sake and can be characterized as reckless innovators. This presentation discusses the role of lean and efficient innovation and how successful companies focus innovation to help connect business strategy to execution.
3.4 other considerations before trading internationallyRawVix
1. Responsibility to stakeholders
Ethical decisions as to what and where to manufacture, balance between
capital and labour, where to sell, pay and working conditions, environmental
factors, for example emissions, waste disposal. Potential conflicts of socially
responsible and ethical behaviour with profit-based and other objectives.
2. Social/cultural differences in doing business
Different promotional message for different countries, international branding, distribution channel, joint ventures, pricing strategy for different countries.
3. The purpose of tariffs, laws, import quotas.
Why tariffs, laws or import quotas are used, for example to protect domestic industries or balance of trade. Constraints on businesses that these barriers provide.
Leslie Appleton Young, CAR Chief Economist, spoke at the Real Living Lifestyles New Year, New You Real Estate Symposium on January 31, 2012. She shared her economic forecast for the coming year, and all of the latest charts and stats on the California economy.
This document provides a summary of the presentation "Understanding the recession and laughing in its face" given by Joe Saxton to the Association of Charity Shops in July 2009. It includes graphs of key economic indicators in the UK such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, earnings growth, unemployment, house prices, stock market performance, currency values, and retail sales trends. It also examines consumer confidence data and how the public has been economizing during the recession.
DP World - 'Role of Ports in the Economy' - Mohammed Al MuallemDubai Quality Group
Mohammed Al Muallem, VP, DP World, presents his topic 'Role of Ports in the Economy' at the recently concluded 'Excellence: the Future of Business' - Day3 - in Dubai.
Event was jointly hosted by ASQ and the Dubai Quality Group.
http://www.facebook.com/DubaiQualityGroup
Personal public private social security saving accounts Matias Zelikowicz
This document discusses options for transitioning the U.S. Social Security system to a model of personal public-private social security saving accounts (PPPSSS). It outlines some of the key issues with the current Social Security system, such as its unsustainability given demographic trends. It then presents two policy alternatives: maintaining the status quo by raising taxes and cutting benefits, or transitioning to a PPPSSS model where half of Social Security taxes are invested in retirement accounts that offer principal protection, upside potential from market participation, and FDIC insurance. The document provides examples of how PPPSSS accounts would work using market-linked certificate of deposits tied to market indexes.
This document summarizes an Embraer Day 2007 presentation on the airline market and Embraer programs for aircraft in the 30-120 seat segment. It includes the following key points:
1) The air transport industry has seen strong demand growth in recent years and is projected to continue growing. However, airlines have had to work hard to reduce costs to offset rising fuel prices.
2) The regional jet market served by Embraer's ERJ145 family and the 70-120 seat market served by Embraer's E-Jets have both evolved in recent years.
3) Projections show the airline industry as a whole and most regions are expected to have positive net results in 2007 and 2008
The document discusses challenges facing efforts to reduce economic disparities between regions in England. It notes that while the goal is to narrow gaps in growth rates, economic performance has always varied between cities and little progress has been made. Barriers include a lack of consensus around the role of core cities, artificial administrative boundaries, and departments prioritizing different approaches. Resolving tensions between priorities of growth places versus places in need remains difficult politically.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
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Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
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How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideDaniel
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Cryptocurrencies can be used for various purposes, including online purchases, investment opportunities, and as a means of transferring value globally without the need for intermediaries like banks.
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Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
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Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
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Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
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1. Credit Market Update
December 2008
INVESTMENT BANKING SERVICES SINCE 1987
200 Wheeler Road, 4th Floor (South)
Burlington, MA 01803
http://www.merger.com
2. How Tight is the Credit Market Today?
Advertisement in BusinessWeek 11/17/08
General Electric, which relies on low-cost Commercial Paper to lend
through GE Capital, has found that the contraction in CP has driven
Presentation for: up the cost of capital to a point where it is cheaper to offer debt
instruments direct to consumers
Pg. 2
3. How Tight is the Credit Market Today?
ABL pricing is LIBOR + 500 to +600 (inclusive of points
paid at closing)
Cash flow loans are pricing at LIBOR + 800 to +1500.
Most middle-market borrowers closing on cash flow loans
since mid-September are paying north of 15% all-in
Covenant-lite deals went away in 1H 2007 and have given
way to an average of three maintenance covenants on new
issues
LIBOR, taking a beating from Central Bankers world wide,
is losing its luster as a benchmark - as such, nearly half of
all loans in 1H 2008 included a LIBOR floor.
Presentation for: Recent loans are being priced with an absolute rate floor of
5.0% to 5.5% Pg. 3
4. How Tight is the Credit Market Today?
There is virtually no mezzanine lending going on today.
Sub-debt providers, tasked with getting unlevered returns
of 15%, can do better in the secondary market, buying
senior secured paper at a discount
There is virtually no DIP lending going on today, other than
from participants already in the capital structure
Exit financing for companies in bankruptcy is nearly
impossible to find
Major players like GE Capital, Madison, Wachovia, GMAC,
Textron, and CIT are essentially out of the market
Presentation for:
Pg. 4
5. How Tight is the Credit Market Today?
Net percentage of U.S. banks that indicate tightening credit standards on corporate loans
100
80
Shading indicates
period of recession Large and Mid-Size Borrowers
60 Small Borrowers
40
20
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-20
-40
Source: Federal Reserve (published in the Wall Street Journal, November 4, 2008)
Recent tightening is more significant and widespread than at any
time in the past 20 years.
Presentation for:
Current bias among lenders is to tighten in anticipation of recession,
falling corporate earnings, and rising default rates. Pg. 5
6. Cost & Availability of Capital
Commercial Paper: Costs have doubled, and maturities
have shortened to days, not weeks.
CLO Market: Major finance companies, unable to raise
capital in the CLO market, are having to draw down
warehouse lines with ever-widening spreads.
De-Levering: Major lenders are looking to de-lever their
balance sheets, and are selling off loan participations and
distressed assets.
Competition from the Secondary Market: The glut of
secondary market debt has driven up the implied interest
rates on BB corporate bonds to 15% and higher.
Staggering hedge fund redemptions, seizures (such as Highland
Credit Strategies’ $672 million fund), and bankruptcy filings have
generated liquidations of debt. Fortress said 11/13 that it
Presentation for:
received $2.6 billion in withdrawal requests for its funds,
which manage $9.1 billion.
Pg. 6
7. Cost & Availability of Capital
Potential Liquidations of Debt Securities (by Investor Type)
Mkt Value Assumed Forced Near-Term Net
Investor Type ( of Holdings
X Liquidation ) = Liquidations - Maturities = Liquidations $
Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) 179.3 5% 9.0 11.7 -2.7
Hedge Funds, High Yield Funds 136.8 50% 68.4 9.0 59.5
Prime Rate Funds 23.6 0.0 1.6 -1.6
Insurance Companies 14.2 0.0 0.9 -0.9
Finance Companies 28.3 0.0 1.9 -1.9
Banks 89.6 0.0 5.9 -5.9
Source: UBS, Standard & Poor’s
Note: Debt Maturing Between October 23, 2008 and January 23, 2009
As much as $46.6 Billion of debt securities, including traditional
loans, syndications, and corporate bonds may trade before year-end
Presentation for:
Until the selling pressure subsides, the secondary market will
continue to compete with new borrowers for scarce capital Pg. 7
8. Cost & Availability of Capital
Who owns the “Leveraged Loans”? Everybody.
Purchasers of Leveraged Loans Q1-Q3 2008:
“Leveraged Loans” are cash flow loans made at 4x – 6x EBITDA,
many of which were used to finance LBOs and dividend recaps
Presentation for:
It’s not just the hedge funds that provided the debt. It was BofA,
Wachovia, GE Capital, Madison, Allied, CapitalSource and others. Pg. 8
9. Cost & Availability of Capital
Sample of Benchmark Loans offering Yields upwards of 28%
The glut of corporate debt trading in the secondary market makes it
possible to buy existing secured debt in large cap companies with
Presentation for:
strong earnings at yields that are significantly “above market” relative
to current loan underwriting.
Pg. 9
10. What are the Experts Saying?
The great sucking sound of the secondary market: Bank Loans
“Performing bank loans with no near term probability of
default, are trading at 71 cents on the dollar. It used to be
that anything under 80 was ‘distressed’… when a bank can
buy that loan at LIBOR +900, why lend at LIBOR+ 400 bp?”
Bank of America
“We have bought out several positions from [Large National
Bank] in club deals where we already had an interest,
generally at a discount that gave us returns better than what
we are getting in primary lending [which is currently L+600]”
Wells Fargo
“We didn’t do syndications on the origination side, but we
have several relationships at [Large Regional Banks] which
have given us the opportunity to buy participations [in recent
months] at a discount” Danversbank
“There are more non-bank lenders than banks, and the
Presentation for:
delevering of the non-bank lenders is driving the market,
rather than the bank work-out officers.” Spring Street Capital Pg. 10
11. What are the Experts Saying?
About default rates
“There is an expectation that default rates across all industry
sectors will rise from current historic lows” RBS Citizens
“Default rates don’t really matter, because everything is
trading like it will default. If I had to guess, I’d say defaults
will be 15% next year” Monarch Alternative Capital LP
“I have been involved in several situations where lenders
have refused to deliver even routine ammendments, and are
instead putting companies in default.” Choate
“Lenders got into bad habits, and for years their work-out
strategy was ‘go borrow from someone else’, but that is no
longer the case” Turnaround Professional
“High yield default rates will go to 10%. We will get a couple
of 10% years like we had in 1991 and 1992” King Street Capital
Presentation for:
Pg. 11
12. What are the Experts Paying?
Implied default rates and loss given default
Loan Index (D) x (L) = (A)
Spread (S) Loss Given Anticipated Risk (S) - (A) =
(% over LIBOR) Default Rate (D) Default (L) Spread Excess Spread
WHERE IS THE MARKET TODAY?
Current Market for Bank Loans 6.0% 3.0% 30.0% 0.9% 5.1%
Current Market for Leveraged Loans 14.0% 3.0% 30.0% 0.9% 13.1%
WHAT IS quot;NORMALquot;?
Long-Term Average 3.3% 3.8% 30.0% 1.1% 2.2%
Historical Worst-Case 8.0% 8.0% 30.0% 2.4% 5.6%
MARKET PRICING RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM AVERAGE EXCESS SPREAD
Current Market for Bank Loans 6.0% 7.6% 50.0% 3.8% 2.2%
Current Market for Leveraged Loans 14.0% 23.6% 50.0% 11.8% 2.2%
Buying secured bank loans at a discount of 39%*, generates an implied
LIBOR spread of 1400bp.
1400bp suggests that either defaults will reach 23.6% with loss given
default of 50%, or some similar scenario.
If we experience 18% defaults (10% greater than the worst ever for
Presentation for:
loans), lenders would have to recover just 53% (25% less than historic
average) to match historical MAX excess spread.
*Lyondell Chemical Company, $16 billion in assets, Bank Debt/EBITDA = 2x. TLB traded at 61 as of October 23rd, a 17.5% YTM Pg. 12
13. What are the Experts Saying?
Default rates on Corporate Debt Since 1990
Looking back over the last 40* years, the highest default rate was less than 15%!
Source: Standard & Poor’s LCD, FRM * Data back to 1990 shown.
Given the history of loan defaults over the past 40* years, the “worst
case” scenario would seem to be <15% default rate. The average loss
on default is 30%. Therefore the likelihood of a loss, on average would
Presentation for:
warrant an excess spread of ~450bp. Yet ABL is now pricing at +600bp,
and cash flow loans at +800bp.
Pg. 13
14. Current M&A Climate
Debt Multiples are down relative to 2007
Debt Multiples for Large LBOs (EBITDA >$50M)
7
6
5
4
3
Subordinated
Debt/EBITDA
2
Second Lien & Other
Sr. Debt/EBITDA
1
Senior (First Lien)
Debt/EBITDA
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 08 3Q 08
Source: Standard & Poor’s LCD
Debt financing, which drove up LBO valuations through 2007,
has dropped off significantly
Presentation for:
Second Lien, which pumped up LBO debt in 2006 and 2007, has
effectively gone away
Pg. 14
15. Current M&A Climate
Lower-Middle Market Debt Multiples are at 2002 Levels
Debt Multiples for Lower Middle-Market LBOs (EBITDA <$10M)
6
5
4
3
Subordinated
Debt/EBITDA
2
Second Lien & Other
Sr. Debt/EBITDA
1
Senior (First Lien)
Debt/EBITDA
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 08 3Q 08 4Q08
Source: Mirus Survey Data
Tightening credit standards and higher interest rates have reduced debt
available for LBOs, driving down valuations for LBOs (and M&A overall)
Presentation for:
Senior leverage on lower middle-market deals is down to approximately 2x
EBITDA, from an average multiple of more than 4x in Spring 2007
Pg. 15
17. What are the Experts Saying?
About the current LBO market
“The market (for LBO debt) is broken and will need to be
reconstituted in some fashion.” Bank of America
“ABL is now pricing at L+500 or 600. Senior leverage, if you
can get it, is at 2x (EBITDA). Nobody with a healthy and
growing business is a seller right now, to the chagrin of the
Private Equity guys.” HIG Capital
“DIP lending really isn’t available right now” Sun Capital
Partners
“Right now we are looking at micro cap and smaller public
companies that have 4x and 5x levereage that can't get
liquidity, and doing PIPEs” HIG Capital
“I fear that banks are going to take this opportunity to put
pressure on disfavored borrowers to exit [the facility].”
Choate
Presentation for:
Pg. 17
18. Current M&A Climate
Large LBOs held up through Q3, driven by equity, not debt
Breakdown of Valuations in Large LBOs (target EBITDA >$50M)
12
9.8x
10
7.9x
8
6.1x
5.7x SENIOR
6
4.5x 3.6x
Subordinated Debt &
Other/EBITDA
4
Senior Secured
Debt/EBITDA
2
Equity/EBITDA
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 08 3Q 08
Sources: Standard & Poors LCD
Despite tightening credit that brought senior debt multiples from
Presentation for:
5.7x in 2007 to 3.6x in Q3, buyers continued paying high multiples
through August of 2008, filling the void with more equity and mezz
Pg. 18
19. Current M&A Climate
Middle-Market LBO prices are back to 2003-2004 levels
Breakdown of Debt and Equity in LBOs (target EBITDA <$10M)
8.0
7.0
Seller-financed
subordinated
6.0
debt
5.0
4.0
Subordinated
3.7x
2.1x Debt/EBITDA
3.0 SENIOR
Senior quot;Stretchquot;
2x /EBITDA
2.0
Senior Secured
Debt/EBITDA
1.0
Equity/EBITDA
0.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 08 3Q 08 4Q 08
Sources: Based on Mirus Survey (middle-market debt multiples) and Standard & Poors LCD (equity contribution)
Lower Middle-Market Valuations held up through early September
Presentation for:
close to 6x EBITDA. However, senior secured is now at 2.1x and
there is no “stretch” or mezzanine debt available.
Pg. 19
20. Fall-Out Q4 2008
Borrowers are drawing down revolvers to “test” their
availability (or horde cash)
Lenders, trying to protect their balance sheets, are finding
creative reasons (technical defaults) to not fund
Asset-Based Lenders are being directed by credit
managers to get new appraisals
Appraisers, worried about a flood of distressed assets
coming into the market, are issuing very conservative
appraisals on equipment, inventory, real estate and other
assets
ABL formulas will require many borrowers to contract their
revolving credit facilities in Q1 2009
Weakness in retail, automotive, building products and
consumer discretionary will result in significant defaults in
Presentation for:
Q4.
Pg. 20
21. Expectations for 2009
Banks are looking to de-lever, reducing their loans
outstanding by 10%-20%, meaning significantly less capital
available to borrowers.
Leveraged lenders, such as GE Capital, Textron, Newstar,
etc. may need to de-lever by as much as 30%, depending
on what happens with CP and TARP.
CLOs and Hedge Fund assets will mature and create new
demand, without supply to match
Refinancings will be more difficult, especially for
overleveraged borrowers
Default rates may reach 10% as soon as late Q1 2009, as
borrowers run into issues with collateral appraisals,
declining revenues, shrinking margins, severance costs,
restructuring charges, etc.
Presentation for:
Pg. 21
22. Expectations for 2009
With DIP financing scarce, borrowers will be forced to work
out more loans with their lenders to avoid uncertainty of
Chapter 11
Inter-creditor agreements and complex capital structures,
as has been seen with the home mortgage market, will
create systemic challenges to effective work-outs
Presentation for:
Pg. 22