This document provides a summary of the presentation "Understanding the recession and laughing in its face" given by Joe Saxton to the Association of Charity Shops in July 2009. It includes graphs of key economic indicators in the UK such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, earnings growth, unemployment, house prices, stock market performance, currency values, and retail sales trends. It also examines consumer confidence data and how the public has been economizing during the recession.
1. Understanding the recession and laughing in
its face
Presentation to the Association of Charity Shops
Joe Saxton
July 2009
Telephone: (020) 7426 8888
e-mail: joe.saxton@nfpsynergy.net
Web: www.nfpsynergy.net
3. Hard times ahead???
Durex profits surged 46% first half of
this financial year
£32.5 million made by SLL
Source: London Paper, 26/11/08
4. Real GDP growth, quarter on quarter
Data up to Q1 2009
2.00%
1.60%
1.20%
0.80%
0.40%
0.00%
-0.40%
-0.80%
-1.20%
-1.60%
-2.00%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2002
21240: Economic Snapshot
5. Inflation – The three main measures
Data up to May 2009
12%
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Headline inflation (RPI)
10% Underlying inflation (RPIX)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1991
1996
2000
2009
21238: Economic Snapshot
6. Interest rate, at end of month
Data up to May 2009
16% Bank of England base rate
Real interest rate (base rate minus RPI inflation)
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
21239: Economic Snapshot
8. Unemployment
Among all aged 16+, 3-month averages, seasonally adjusted
Data to April 2009
12% Unemployment rate (left hand axis) 3200
Number unemployed, 000s (right hand axis)
2800
10%
2400
8%
2000
6% 1600
1200
4%
800
2%
400
0% 0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
1989
2007
2009
21242: Economic Snapshot
9. UK house prices – Year-on-year % growth
Data to May 2009. Halifax data from 1984 within chart.
30% Halifax Nationwide
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
May-92
May-95
May-96
May-97
May-00
May-01
May-02
May-06
May-93
May-94
May-98
May-99
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-07
May-08
May-09
19281: Economic Snapshot
10. FTSE 100 share index
Figures shown are at the close of market trading every Monday. Data from 1984 is included within
the datasheet.
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-91
Jun-96
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-07
4933: Economic Snapshot
11. The value of Sterling
Value of £1 in terms of Euros and US Dollars. Monthly averages. Data to 16th
June.
2.10
Euros
2.00
Dollars
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
22228: Economic Snapshot
12. The value of retail sales
Year on year % change in sales
10%
Total sales Like-for-like sales
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Jul-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Nov-07
Nov-08
Jul-08
Jan-06
Jan-08
May-06
Jan-07
May-07
May-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-06
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-09
19274: Economic Snapshot
14. Consumer confidence index – Monthly
Data up to May 2009
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
1990
1994
1995
1996
2000
2001
2002
2003
2007
2008
2009
1991
1992
1993
1997
1998
1999
2004
2005
2006
21647: Economic Snapshot
15. Optimism about household finances
Data to May 2009
35% Balance
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5% Past 12 months Next 12 months
0%
-5%
-10%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
19280: Economic Snapshot
16. Optimism about the UK economy
Data to May 2009
60% Balance
Past 12 months Next 12 months
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
22234: Economic Snapshot
17. Confidence about employment and major purchases
Data to May 2009
40% Balance Major purchases Employment
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
22235: Economic Snapshot
18. Areas people are economising on
% of shoppers who have economised on the following activities in the last 6 months
“Have you economised in the last 6 months on any of the following?…”
Eating out
Clothes shopping
Travelling by car
Food shopping
Holidays
Going out to the theatre
Treating yourself
Home entertainment
Cutting back on savings
Home and garden improvements
Air travel
Gym membership
Charitable donations
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Source: Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD)/nVision
Base: 1,002 respondents aged 18+, GB, 2008
21724: