Managing Supply Chain of Zara. It defines what a supply chain is and outlines the steps that makes up the chain. It Explain the factors that affect its design and understands the processes of designing and managing the supply chain. It outline the benefits of effectively managing supply chains
Managing Supply Chain of Zara. It defines what a supply chain is and outlines the steps that makes up the chain. It Explain the factors that affect its design and understands the processes of designing and managing the supply chain. It outline the benefits of effectively managing supply chains
The presentation has been prepared by the students of MFM(Master of Fashion Management), NIFT, Delhi as a part of the study on the Inventory Management of ZARA.
In this project, I worked with a group to create a buying plan for the shoes department of Zara. We analyzed up and coming trends for footwear and looked to see how those trends could further expand the ZARA shoe market.
This project contains a detailed evaluation of the business models of Zara and GAP in the e-commerce clothing retail space. The two companies have been compared and analyzed on the basis of total revenues, e-commerce presence, social media marketing process, new product introduction and product variability, followed by a detailed study containing SWOT analysis and the correlation of e-commerce with supply chain activities
[Tiếng Việt bên dưới]
It's the first day of school at Frederick Douglass Elementary and everyone's just a little bit nervous, especially the school itself. What will the children do once they come? Will they like the school? Will they be nice to him?
The school has a rough start, but as the day goes on, he soon recovers when he sees that he's not the only one going through first-day jitters.
Reading level: 580L
Source: Reading Seed
About Reading Seed:
Website: https://readingseed.wixsite.com/readingseedvn
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/readingseedvn
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoNzrQH2XN9XrWSwKtecN9w/about
********************************
Đó là ngày đầu tiên đi học tại trường Tiểu học Frederick Douglass và mọi người đều hơi lo lắng, đặc biệt là bản thân ngôi trường. Bọn trẻ sẽ làm gì khi chúng đến? Chúng có thích trường không? Chúng có tốt với cậu ấy không?
Trường học có một khởi đầu khó khăn, nhưng khi từng ngày trôi qua, cậu ấy sớm cảm thấy thoải mái trở lại khi thấy rằng cậu ấy không phải là người duy nhất trải qua cảm giác bồn chồn trong ngày đầu tiên.
Nguồn: Reading Seed
Về Reading Seed:
Website: https://readingseed.wixsite.com/readingseedvn
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/readingseedvn
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoNzrQH2XN9XrWSwKtecN9w/about
ZARA's external and internal enviroment. This presentation covers the main characteristics of ZARA, a general view of fast fashion indystry, Porters' Five Forces Analysis, competitors' external environment as well as a complete internal analysis regarding:competences, capabilities, resources, competitive advantage,value chain and outsourcing.
Latest Fashion trends is a term which means ‘an ongoing trend ‘. It refers to how people dress and what kind of external getup most people think is making them look stylish, up-to-date and sophisticated.
Readymade Garments: Clothing Business Ideas & OpportunitiesAjjay Kumar Gupta
Readymade Garments: Clothing Business Ideas & Opportunities
Manufacturing Plant, Detailed Project Report, Profile, Business Plan, Industry Trends, Market Research, Survey, Manufacturing Process, Machinery, Raw Materials, Feasibility Study, Investment Opportunities, Cost and Revenue, Plant Economics, Production Schedule, Working Capital Requirement, Plant Layout, Process Flow Sheet, Cost of Project, Projected Balance Sheets, Profitability Ratios, Break Even Analysis
Ready-made garments are mass-produced finished textile products of the clothing industry. They are made from many different fabrics and yarns. Their characteristics depend on the fibers used in their manufacture.
The garments are very simple to manufacture and easily marketable both in urban and rural areas. The demand of readymade garments is increasing day by day due to urbanization of the cities.
See more
https://goo.gl/awM4eD
https://goo.gl/PwJ7av
https://goo.gl/cpAzUy
Contact us:
Niir Project Consultancy Services
106-E, Kamla Nagar, Opp. Spark Mall,
New Delhi-110007, India.
Email: npcs.ei@gmail.com , info@entrepreneurindia.co
Tel: +91-11-23843955, 23845654, 23845886, 8800733955
Mobile: +91-9811043595
Website: www.entrepreneurindia.co , www.niir.org
Tags
Indian Garment Industry, Garment Industry in India, Garment Industry, Projects on Readymade Garments, Textile Industry, Textiles and Garments, Textile Industry in India, Readymade Garments Industry, How to Start Garment Business With Low Investment, Most Profitable Apparel Business Ideas, Plan for Starting Up Readymade Garment Business, How to Start Clothing Business, How to Start Garment Business, How to Start Small Business, Garment Business, Readymade Garments Business Plan in India, Garment Business Opportunities, Small Textile Business Ideas, Small Business Ideas in Garment Industry, Profitable Small Business Opportunities in Clothing Industry, Start Readymade Garments Business, Garment Manufacturing Business, Readymade Garments Manufacturing, Commercial Readymade Garments Manufacturing Business, Project Report on Readymade Garments Manufacturing, Project Profile on Readymade Garments, Process of Garment Manufacturing, Garment Manufacturing Business Plan, How Can I Start Readymade Garments Business in India?, How do I Start Garments Business in India?, Starting Clothing Business, How to Start Clothing Line, How to Start Successful Garment Manufacturing Business, Clothing Business Ideas & Opportunities, Starting Your Own Successful Clothing Line, Business Plan for Garment Manufacturing, Steps to Success for Clothing Industry, Production Planning for Garment Manufacturing, Production Planning in Clothing Industry, Textile & Garment Manufacturing, Manufacturing Process for Clothing Industry, How to Start Clothing and Apparel Business, Planning for Textile and Clothing Business, Starting & Operating Textile and Clothing Manufacturing Business,
HBR Case Study - Fashion retailer ZARA has achieved spectacular growth via a distinctive design-on-demand operating model. This case describes this model and outlines a number of challenges facing the company, with a particular emphasis on its international expansion. Includes color exhibits.
The presentation has been prepared by the students of MFM(Master of Fashion Management), NIFT, Delhi as a part of the study on the Inventory Management of ZARA.
In this project, I worked with a group to create a buying plan for the shoes department of Zara. We analyzed up and coming trends for footwear and looked to see how those trends could further expand the ZARA shoe market.
This project contains a detailed evaluation of the business models of Zara and GAP in the e-commerce clothing retail space. The two companies have been compared and analyzed on the basis of total revenues, e-commerce presence, social media marketing process, new product introduction and product variability, followed by a detailed study containing SWOT analysis and the correlation of e-commerce with supply chain activities
[Tiếng Việt bên dưới]
It's the first day of school at Frederick Douglass Elementary and everyone's just a little bit nervous, especially the school itself. What will the children do once they come? Will they like the school? Will they be nice to him?
The school has a rough start, but as the day goes on, he soon recovers when he sees that he's not the only one going through first-day jitters.
Reading level: 580L
Source: Reading Seed
About Reading Seed:
Website: https://readingseed.wixsite.com/readingseedvn
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/readingseedvn
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoNzrQH2XN9XrWSwKtecN9w/about
********************************
Đó là ngày đầu tiên đi học tại trường Tiểu học Frederick Douglass và mọi người đều hơi lo lắng, đặc biệt là bản thân ngôi trường. Bọn trẻ sẽ làm gì khi chúng đến? Chúng có thích trường không? Chúng có tốt với cậu ấy không?
Trường học có một khởi đầu khó khăn, nhưng khi từng ngày trôi qua, cậu ấy sớm cảm thấy thoải mái trở lại khi thấy rằng cậu ấy không phải là người duy nhất trải qua cảm giác bồn chồn trong ngày đầu tiên.
Nguồn: Reading Seed
Về Reading Seed:
Website: https://readingseed.wixsite.com/readingseedvn
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/readingseedvn
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoNzrQH2XN9XrWSwKtecN9w/about
ZARA's external and internal enviroment. This presentation covers the main characteristics of ZARA, a general view of fast fashion indystry, Porters' Five Forces Analysis, competitors' external environment as well as a complete internal analysis regarding:competences, capabilities, resources, competitive advantage,value chain and outsourcing.
Latest Fashion trends is a term which means ‘an ongoing trend ‘. It refers to how people dress and what kind of external getup most people think is making them look stylish, up-to-date and sophisticated.
Readymade Garments: Clothing Business Ideas & OpportunitiesAjjay Kumar Gupta
Readymade Garments: Clothing Business Ideas & Opportunities
Manufacturing Plant, Detailed Project Report, Profile, Business Plan, Industry Trends, Market Research, Survey, Manufacturing Process, Machinery, Raw Materials, Feasibility Study, Investment Opportunities, Cost and Revenue, Plant Economics, Production Schedule, Working Capital Requirement, Plant Layout, Process Flow Sheet, Cost of Project, Projected Balance Sheets, Profitability Ratios, Break Even Analysis
Ready-made garments are mass-produced finished textile products of the clothing industry. They are made from many different fabrics and yarns. Their characteristics depend on the fibers used in their manufacture.
The garments are very simple to manufacture and easily marketable both in urban and rural areas. The demand of readymade garments is increasing day by day due to urbanization of the cities.
See more
https://goo.gl/awM4eD
https://goo.gl/PwJ7av
https://goo.gl/cpAzUy
Contact us:
Niir Project Consultancy Services
106-E, Kamla Nagar, Opp. Spark Mall,
New Delhi-110007, India.
Email: npcs.ei@gmail.com , info@entrepreneurindia.co
Tel: +91-11-23843955, 23845654, 23845886, 8800733955
Mobile: +91-9811043595
Website: www.entrepreneurindia.co , www.niir.org
Tags
Indian Garment Industry, Garment Industry in India, Garment Industry, Projects on Readymade Garments, Textile Industry, Textiles and Garments, Textile Industry in India, Readymade Garments Industry, How to Start Garment Business With Low Investment, Most Profitable Apparel Business Ideas, Plan for Starting Up Readymade Garment Business, How to Start Clothing Business, How to Start Garment Business, How to Start Small Business, Garment Business, Readymade Garments Business Plan in India, Garment Business Opportunities, Small Textile Business Ideas, Small Business Ideas in Garment Industry, Profitable Small Business Opportunities in Clothing Industry, Start Readymade Garments Business, Garment Manufacturing Business, Readymade Garments Manufacturing, Commercial Readymade Garments Manufacturing Business, Project Report on Readymade Garments Manufacturing, Project Profile on Readymade Garments, Process of Garment Manufacturing, Garment Manufacturing Business Plan, How Can I Start Readymade Garments Business in India?, How do I Start Garments Business in India?, Starting Clothing Business, How to Start Clothing Line, How to Start Successful Garment Manufacturing Business, Clothing Business Ideas & Opportunities, Starting Your Own Successful Clothing Line, Business Plan for Garment Manufacturing, Steps to Success for Clothing Industry, Production Planning for Garment Manufacturing, Production Planning in Clothing Industry, Textile & Garment Manufacturing, Manufacturing Process for Clothing Industry, How to Start Clothing and Apparel Business, Planning for Textile and Clothing Business, Starting & Operating Textile and Clothing Manufacturing Business,
HBR Case Study - Fashion retailer ZARA has achieved spectacular growth via a distinctive design-on-demand operating model. This case describes this model and outlines a number of challenges facing the company, with a particular emphasis on its international expansion. Includes color exhibits.
Highlights of the first quarter of 2010. Net sales amounted to SEK 25,133m (25,818) and income for the period was SEK 911m (-346), or SEK 3.20 (-1.22) per share. Net sales increased by 4.1% in comparable currencies, due to higher sales volumes.
Highlights of the second quarter of 2010. Net sales amounted to SEK 27,311m (27,482) and income for the period was SEK 1,028m (658), or SEK 3.61 (2.32) per share. Net sales increased by 2.8% in comparable currencies, due to higher sales volumes.
Highlights of the fourth quarter of 2009. Net sales amounted to SEK 28,215m (28,663) and income for the period was SEK 664m (-474), or SEK 2.34 (-1.68) per share. Net sales declined by 1% in comparable currencies, due to continued weak markets.
Scania Year-end Report, January-December 2012Scania Group
Scania's earnings for the full year 2012 amounted to SEK 8,300 m. Lower vehicle volume, lower capacity utilisation and a higher level of costs pulled down earnings. Order bookings for trucks rose during the fourth quarter of 2012.
In a lecture at the London School of Economics, Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI Director-General, and Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, argue that uncertainty is biting on our economy and our firms. The complexities of 21st century trade and the prospect of serious disruption from a ‘no deal’ outcome means businesses are changing plans and slowing investment now. The lecture can be viewed here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy6fz0tPcbg
The CBI/KPMG infrastructure survey, conducted in June and July 2012, provides a business-wide assessment of the state of the UK’s economic infrastructure networks. The survey underlines the critical role that infrastructure plays in making the UK an attractive place to do business and in helping firms to take advantage of growth opportunities both here and abroad.
Taken from the CBI's report "Tax and British Business: Making the case". These graphics illustrate the contribution UK businesses make to the British economy
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfcoingabbar
Introducing BONKMILLON - The Most Bonkers Meme Coin Yet
Let's be real for a second – the world of meme coins can feel like a bit of a circus at times. Every other day, there's a new token promising to take you "to the moon" or offering some groundbreaking utility that'll change the game forever. But how many of them actually deliver on that hype?
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the what'sapp contact of my personal pi vendor
+12349014282
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the what'sapp information for my personal pi vendor.
+12349014282
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the what's app number of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
+12349014282
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the what'sapp number.
+12349014282
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the what'sapp number of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Message: +12349014282 VIA Whatsapp.
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
1. The Regional Economy in 2012
Balance Sheet Recession,
Austerity & Growth Challenge
Alan Bridle, UK Economist
CBI Economic Luncheon 18th May 2012
Bank of Ireland UK is a trading name of Bank of Ireland (UK) plc which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority. Registered in England and Wales (No. 7022885), Bow Bells House, 1 Bread Street, London, EC4M 9BE.
2. Agenda
Scene-setting - Regional Exposures to UK & Irish Debt issues
“Made in Northern Ireland” – our own Balance Sheet Recession as it plays out
The Business Sector
Property Markets
The Household Sector
Banking & Credit issues
Short & Medium Term Outlook
Base case Planning Assumptions
Risks
Critical conditions for restoring growth
Concluding Remarks
Rebalancing - The Real Challenge ?
Grounds for Encouragement?
3. Regional Exposure
Sandwiched between two highly indebted economies that had oversized banking sectors
and both now set on a necessary course of “deleveraging”
4. The UK’s limited “recovery” experience to date and scale of debt-reduction plans
should govern regional growth and public spending expectations for at least two
Parliaments and inform current NI Executive policy-making
Source: FT, Why UK GDP continues to lag G7 (G Davies), 24TH April 2012
5. A Heavily Indebted & Welfare-dependent Region having to play its part in
restoring UK public finances
NI public Expenditure per capita
£bn relative to UK (£bn)
Net Fiscal
12
Transfers
11 12,000
10
10,000
9
8 8,000
UK
7 6,000
NI
6
4,000
5
4 2,000
3 0
2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10
DEL + AME DEL only
Claimants per 1,000 people
DLA IB JSA IS
NI 102 34 32 46
UK 54 32 23 29
Sources: PESA, DFP, NOMIS, BOI estimates
6. Rear view mirror reveals NI’s “recession experience” has greater similarity to ROI
than UK
Annual Economic Growth in Real Terms 2007-2009
0
-1
Official ONS data released at the -2
end of 2011 indicates that the -3
-4
contraction in the regional economy -5
-6
was much deeper than previously -7
estimated. -8
-9
-10
Lon Sco UK SE SW EM NE Y&H NW Wales WM East NI ROI
Estimated NI GVA at constant prices 1998-2010
£ bn
In monetary terms, aggregate 30
29
regional income/expenditure was 28
27
estimated to be over £2.0bn or 7.5% 26
25
lower in 2010 v peak of £29.2bn in 24
23
2007 ie the size of the economy is 22
21
back at 2004 levels. 20
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
The size of the NI economy overall
is now back at 2004 levels
Sources : ONS, CSO, BOI
8. Key private sectors of the NI economy have experienced only a very modest
recovery to date and activity levels remain c15% below pre-crisis peak … while 1 in
3 firms indicate they are not profitable
NI Services,Manufacturing and Construction output indices All UK SMEs NI SMEs
115
2008=100
105
95
85
Services
75 Manufacturing
Construction
65
55 Loss
Profit
q1 q1 q1 q1 q1 q1 q1 Broke even DK
2005 2007 2009 2011
Source : NI Index of Services (Experimental), NI Index of Production, NI Construction
Bulletin, bdrc continental
9. Growth Ambitions in 2012 – while near half of firms say they will stay the same
size in the next 12 months, a larger percentage of NI firms plan to
contract/sell/pass on than, than grow substantially.
Growth plans for next 12 months
All UK SMEs Q4
NI SMEs Q4
Source: bdrc continental, March 2012
10. Current economic climate rated the biggest challenge to business growth in the
short-term. NI SMEs more exercised than UK overall by other factors, including
finance availability
Main reason for not seeking borrowing – All NI
Major obstacle to running business in next 3 months “Would be seekers” Q3-4 only
Main reason for not applying
Discouraged: had asked informally but
felt put off, or assumed would be turned
down
Principle: prefer not to lose control, or
can get funds elsewhere
Process: think it’s too expensive, too
much hassle, needs security
Climate: felt it was not the right time to
All UK SMEs Q4 borrow in the current economic climate
NI SMEs Q4
Source: bdrc continental, March 2012
12. Very Challenging Climate for all Property segments
Prime yields in all sectors of the local market are
now at their highest level in more than a decade
but investment volumes remain very muted
NI “Retail” segment hit hard by consumer
spending retrenchment
Source: Lisney
13. Residential Development Land still largely in a state of paralysis – A
“Psychology of deflation” still prevails
Valuation estimates heavily
depressed, particularly In
rural west of the Bann
Source: Lisney
Very limited Open-Market sales volumes, Demand constrained by confidence issues and anticipated
weak recovery in housing market.
Key decisions for banks, NAMA and appointed Administrators around disposals and warehousing
14. Residential market still difficult in 2012 - price correction
seems well advanced but not yet complete
Pace of annual price decline has slowed, “pockets” of market have stabilised/tentative recovery but
overall risks for average prices are still to the downside - further “stock clearing” and difficult macro
environment and mortgage market backdrop. Forecasted repossession rates for 2012 still reflecting
hangover/legacy issues from regional house price boom of 2006-07.
Forecasted Regional repossession rates 2012 : CML
Transactions LHS Average Price RHS
£
3000 275000 South West
250000 South East
2500 225000 North West
200000 East Mid
2000 Better than UK average regions
175000 East
150000 UK
1500 Worse than UK average
125000 Yorks & Hum
regions
100000 Wales
1000
75000 North East
West Mid
500 50000 CML projecting that the rate of repossession in NI
Scotland
will be 3x UK average in 2012
25000
London
0 0
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 q3 q4 q1
NI
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2
Source: QHPI
16. Continuing Headwinds on Household Finances / Consumer
spending
Household Challenges in 2012
New car registrations in 2011 %
• A starting position of elevated levels of debt,
particularly new mortgage borrowers from the
2 2005-07 period.
• Falling real living standards – inflation outpaced
0 incomes in 2010, 2011 & 2012?
-2 NI • Negative “wealth effect” from steep decline in
asset values
Wales
-4 Scotland
• Pensions reform – Private (and Public) sectors
• Personal taxation and National Insurance
-6 UK increases – middle and upper income groups
England squeezed
-8 • UK-wide Welfare and Benefit reforms – recurring
ROI impact
-10
… but inflation has moderated and further falls
should be supportive of a gradual recovery in real
-12 HH income/expenditure
18. Public sector job insecurity at elevated levels, but exaggerated on
evidence to date, with the projected “shake-out” not materialising
and reductions much lower than rest of UK.
How concerned, if at all, would you say you are about the possibility of Change in public sector employment by region in year to Q2
being made redundant or becoming unemployed over the next few 2011 (%)
months?
25 All full time workers Public sector Private sector
22
21
20 20
18
18
15
Source: Ipsos Mori
10
8
5
pwc Spending Review: One Year On
0
2009 Qtr1
2009 Qtr2
2009 Qtr3
2009 Qtr4
2010 Qtr1
2010 Qtr2
2010 Qtr3
2010 Qtr 4
2011 Qtr 1
The lowest % of losses (1.8%) in the UK despite the highest % of employees.
However, the opportunity cost of any job protectionism is the impact on capital
budgets & private sector, where the positive multipliers are likely to be greater.
19. The “Working Poor” – HMRC income tax distribution data provides
some indication of the likely disproportionate “squeeze” on the
region’s households from higher food, petrol and energy costs –
counterbalanced by lower regional taxation v UK ?
Income Tax payers in NI, 2009-10 Relative Income Tax payers
£70,000 £100,000 £150,000 £200,000
1% 0%
£50,000
1% £200,000
A smaller £150,000 A larger
0%
3% £6,475 share than £100,000 share
14%
£30,000 the UK £70,000 than the
14% £50,000 UK
£30,000
£10,000 £20,000
24% £15,000
£10,000
£6,475
£20,000
23%
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
£15,000
20% Percentage point difference between NI and UK (2009/10)
22. Appetite for Credit - 7 out of 10 SMEs in Northern Ireland have no
wish, or need to apply for borrowing (similar to UK)
“would-be seekers” borrowing event “would-be seekers” borrowing event
“happy non-seekers” “happy non-seekers”
Source: bdrc continental, March 2012
23. Success rate of Credit Applications? c70% according to businesses
70% of overdraft applicants 72% of loan applicants now
now have a facility have a facility
Offered what wanted and took it Offered what wanted and took it
Have overdraft after issues Have loan after issues
Took other funding instead Took other funding instead
No overdraft No loan
Source: bdrc continental, March 2012
24. £0
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
£700
£800
£900
£1,100
£1,200
04/1-04/4
04/2-05/1
£268
£600 £553
£1,000 £955
04/3-05/2
04/4-05/3
05/1-05/4
05/2-06/1
05/3-06/2
05/4-06/3
06/1-06/4
All credit card holders
Source: Ipsos MORI
06/2-07/1
06/3-07/2
06/4-07/3
07/1-07/4
07/2-08/1
07/3-08/2
07/4-08/3
08/1-08/4
08/2-09/1
Always pay back in full
08/3-09/2
08/4-09/3
09/1-09/4
most recent statement)
09/2-10/1
09/3-10/2
09/4-10/3
10/1-10/4
10/2-11/1
10/3-11/2
10/4-11/3
Amount owed on credit card (on
11/1-11/4
11/2-12/1
Do not always pay back in full
£295
£590
£995
£3,000
£3,500
£4,000
£4,500
£5,000
£5,500
£6,000
£6,500
£7,000
£7,500
02/1-02/4
02/2-03/1
02/3-03/2
£4,467
02/4-03/3
03/1-03/4
03/2-04/1
03/3-04/2
03/4-04/3
£3,830
04/1-04/4
04/2-05/1
04/3-05/2
04/4-05/3
Personal loans
05/1-05/4
05/2-06/1
05/3-06/2
05/4-06/3
06/1-06/4
06/2-07/1
06/3-07/2
06/4-07/3
07/1-07/4
07/2-08/1
07/3-08/2
07/4-08/3
08/1-08/4
08/2-09/1
08/3-09/2
08/4-09/3
09/1-09/4
borrowing” by a segment of households in the last 12 months
09/2-10/1
09/3-10/2
09/4-10/3
10/1-10/4
10/2-11/1
Personal loans taken out in the last year
10/3-11/2
Unsecured Credit – while penetration of cards and loans has fallen
10/4-11/3
Average personal loan amount
11/1-11/4
11/2-12/1
£3,991
£6,268
from peak levels of 2008 & 2009, there is greater evidence of “distress
25. 15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
00/1-00/4
00/2-01/1
00/3-01/2
00/4-01/3
01/1-01/4
01/2-02/1
01/3-02/2
01/4-02/3
16-24
02/1-02/4
02/2-03/1
02/3-03/2
02/4-03/3
03/1-03/4
03/2-04/1
03/3-04/2
03/4-04/3
25-34
04/1-04/4
Source: Ipsos MORI
04/2-05/1
04/3-05/2
04/4-05/3
05/1-05/4
05/2-06/1
developments?)
05/3-06/2
35-44
05/4-06/3
06/1-06/4
06/2-07/1
06/3-07/2
06/4-07/3
07/1-07/4
07/2-08/1
07/3-08/2
45-54
07/4-08/3
08/1-08/4
08/2-09/1
08/3-09/2
08/4-09/3
09/1-09/4
09/2-10/1
09/3-10/2
55-64
09/4-10/3
10/1-10/4
10/2-11/1
10/3-11/2
finance and mortgage market
10/4-11/3
11/1-11/4
in the <35 age cohort (student
65+
11/2-12/1
32%
27%
21%
29%
31%
Savings account penetration by age
Savings – Some rediscovering the
32%
virtues of thrift – the long decline in
savings penetration being “arrested”
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
£0
£1,000
£2,000
£3,000
£4,000
£5,000
£6,000
£7,000
£8,000
£9,000
£10,000
£11,000
£12,000
£13,000
£14,000
£15,000
00/1-00/4 00/1-00/4
00/2-01/1 00/2-01/1
00/3-01/2 00/3-01/2
00/4-01/3 00/4-01/3
£5,974
£6,237
£6,851
£5,200
£1,037
01/1-01/4
£13,323
01/1-01/4
01/2-02/1 01/2-02/1
01/3-02/2 01/3-02/2
01/4-02/3 01/4-02/3
02/1-02/4 02/1-02/4
02/2-03/1 02/2-03/1
02/3-03/2 02/3-03/2
02/4-03/3 02/4-03/3
03/1-03/4
Under £20,000
03/1-03/4
03/2-04/1 03/2-04/1
03/3-04/2 03/3-04/2
03/4-04/3 03/4-04/3
04/1-04/4
04/1-04/4
04/2-05/1 04/2-05/1
04/3-05/2 04/3-05/2
04/4-05/3
04/4-05/3
05/1-05/4
05/1-05/4
05/2-06/1
05/2-06/1
05/3-06/2
05/3-06/2
05/4-06/3
05/4-06/3
Total value of savings
06/1-06/4
06/1-06/4
06/2-07/1
06/2-07/1
06/3-07/2
06/3-07/2
06/4-07/3
£20,000 - £39,999
06/4-07/3
07/1-07/4
07/1-07/4
07/2-08/1
07/2-08/1
07/3-08/2
household income
07/3-08/2
07/4-08/3
07/4-08/3
08/1-08/4
08/1-08/4 08/2-09/1
Value of savings in main savings account
08/2-09/1 08/3-09/2
Value of savings in other savings accounts
08/3-09/2 08/4-09/3
08/4-09/3 09/1-09/4
Average savings amount
09/1-09/4 09/2-10/1
09/2-10/1 09/3-10/2
09/3-10/2 09/4-10/3
Total value of savings by
09/4-10/3 10/1-10/4
10/1-10/4 10/2-11/1
£40,000 or more
10/2-11/1 10/3-11/2
10/3-11/2 10/4-11/3
10/4-11/3 11/1-11/4
11/1-11/4 11/2-12/1
£5,081
11/2-12/1
£15,653
£26,504
£3,364
£12,298
£8,934
27. Base Case Planning Assumption - short &
medium term UK & NI regional economic
growth on a significantly lower trajectory
compared to pre-crisis. Regional-specific and
structural factors likely to ensure NI GDP rates
“lag” UK (and ROI) in recovery phase GDP forecasts % change
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NI 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.25 1.5
% annual change
“The Great Expansion”
UK 0.5 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.5
6
“The Great Reassession” ROI 0.5 1.4 2.9 3.0 3.0
4
2
0 UK
Northern Ireland Key Risks
-2
potential for • pace of UK & ROI recoveries?
-4“The Great Recession”
downwards revision • diminishing financial assistance
-6
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 without offset policy levers
Sources : ONS, OBR UK Budget Forecasts 2011, BOI analysis
28. Monetary “dynamics” just beginning to change for the region
UK “policy” interest rates projected to be lower for longer but “market” rates showing
signs of “de-coupling” / tightening
Monthly QGBPEUR= 31/08/2004 - 30/04/2012 (UTC)
Line, QGBPEUR=, Bid(Last) Price
31/05/2012, 1.2470 EUR
1.44
1.4
1.36
1.32
1.28 …. while Sterling/€uro appears to made
1.24
1.2
a break to the upside
1.16
1.12 winners and losers …
1.08
.1234
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
29. Critical Conditions for restoring buoyancy and growth to the
regional economy
Stabilising the Banking system
Potential Growth Sectors
Credible delivery of long-term UK deficit-
reduction
Agri - food
Structural economic reform Technology
Pharma & Health sciences
“Green” –
A widening & diversified export base renewables,
Niche/high value manufacturing
Tourism
Creative Industries
Regulatory /
Compliance
A revival in private investment and public Private Health / Private Education
infrastructure
Traditional - housebuilding
Stabilising the housing & property markets
31. The Real Rebalancing challenge – from Consumption to Production
(Business Investment & Net Trade)
Composition of GDP in Germ any, France, US, UK, 2009 %
(compared with estimated GVA profile of NI region)
NI
UK Net Trade
HH Consumption
Govt Consumption
Investment
US
France
Germany
-35 -20 -5 10 25 40 55 70 85 100 115
Source: CBI "A vision for rebalancing the economy", BOI
Analysis
The UK economy (especially regions such as Northern Ireland) are dominated by Household
and Government Consumption and economic growth has become less balanced and weaker
since the 1970’s.
For UK (and NI), echoes of the mid-1970’s “Too Few Producers” thesis.
A Time to re-visit ?
32. While the short-term outlook remains very challenging, there is some basis
for encouragement to support a gradual return to growth …
Despite the budget squeeze, present and future, public expenditure per head is still
over 20% above the UK average (still over 200,000 public sector jobs in 2014-15?)
Overall levels of debt are falling to more sustainable levels & the “impairment cycle”
for the financial sector is progressing (but not complete)
Improved affordability for residential and commercial property – now more aligned to
regional economic and financial fundamentals
“Subsets” of the private sector continue to outperform (Tourism Revenues 2012&13)
Low regional tax burden for households that sustains a level of spending (but with an
associated opportunity cost!)
Still almost 700,000 employee jobs (c 600,000 mid-90’s)
Edging closer to D-Day for corporation tax decision
33. Thank You
Alan Bridle
UK Economist / Market Analyst
Bank of Ireland UK
alan.bridle@boini.com
028 90433519
07736362138
This document is for information purposes only. Bank of Ireland UK is not soliciting any
action based upon it and professional advice should be obtained before acting on any
information contained herein.
This document is based upon information as at Wednesday 16th May 2012 that we
consider reliable but we do not represent that it is complete and it should not be relied
upon as such.
The Material in this document should not be reproduced in any form without the
express permission of Bank of Ireland UK