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Methodological Premises of Social Forecasting in the Context of Business organizations K.Prabhakar. Director, KSR College of Technology, Tiruchengode-637 209 [email_address]   Second National Conference on Management Science and Practice  11 March, 2007 Venue: Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
A  Forecast   ,[object Object],[object Object]
What Happened? : The murders dropped by 30% in 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reality Check   ,[object Object]
Literature Review  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Bell’s View in 1973 about Information society  ,[object Object]
Shift in Conditions of Human Society  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Business Forecasting  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Business Decision Process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The business has to deal with two groups of factors:- ,[object Object],[object Object]
  The above discussion gave rise to three forecast outputs that business requires from the environment:- ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Syntropic Model ,[object Object]
  The six models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Syntropic Model   Syntropic Model   Syntropic Model
Events  and Trends  ,[object Object],[object Object]
  The psychological model consists of seven important factors :- ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The political model covers the following factors:- ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What organizations have to do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodological Issue#1 ,[object Object]
What path the variable are likely  to take with time? Years Forecast outcomes (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) A B
Elements of Social Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object]
Elements of Social Forecasting … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monitoring and Measuring Social Indicators  ,[object Object]
How to organize the data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Techniques available in Social Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary of Areas of Ignorance in Social Forecasting  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
References  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Methodological Premises of Social Forecasting in the Context of Business organizations

  • 1. Methodological Premises of Social Forecasting in the Context of Business organizations K.Prabhakar. Director, KSR College of Technology, Tiruchengode-637 209 [email_address] Second National Conference on Management Science and Practice 11 March, 2007 Venue: Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
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  • 19. What path the variable are likely to take with time? Years Forecast outcomes (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) A B
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