Megatrends in International Business
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Book launch panel on "Megatrends in IB" at AIB-UKI conference 2022 at University of Reading. Batas, Spiros, Olli Kuivalainen, and Rudolf R. Sinkovics Eds. (2022), Megatrends in international business - examining the influence of trends on doing business internationally. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95527-4
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Megatrends in International Business
- 1. Megatrends in international business Batas, Spiros, Olli Kuivalainen, and Rudolf R. Sinkovics Eds. (2022), Megatrends in international business - examining the influence of trends on doing business internationally. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95527-4 1
- 2. Agenda • Motivation and intro to the panel (OK/SB) • There is no point to the book v. The book is the point! (FMcD) • The megatrends theme » Megatrends in the world, megatrends in IB without the label » Organisation of the book • Elevator pitches from chapters of the book » Firm Internationalisation and Corporate Governance » Artificial Intelligence of Things as an Accelerator of Circular Economy in International Business » IGOs and Entrepreneurship » What Happens when Subsidiaries Go through a Change? » Incorporating Home and Host Country Economic Growth Rates 2
- 3. The value of the book - A chairperson’s perspective 3
- 4. 28 volumes published since 1996 4 First volume 1996
- 5. The ‘value’ of book chapters? • 26 volumes since 1996 • In a metrified publishing landscape, books/book chapters are increasingly seen as an unnecessary distraction 5
- 6. Scaffolding arguments in favour of book chapters… • Developing stepping stones for work that has not (yet) chances of getting published in more rigorous outlets • First provision of publication experience to young/nascent scholars and early career researchers • Building up ‘portfolio of work’ that showcases expertise • Although unlikely to be highly valued in the UK in many European countries book chapters count – in CBS (I think) is 3 for high quality refereed journal, 2 for other journals and 1 for book chapters • Maybe better outlet than unranked (or rank 1) journals 6
- 7. Some history • AIB UK & I book based on conference papers has a long history • In early days book sales were good as many university libraries purchased at least one copy • In early to mid 2000s many libraires stopped buying – long debate about whether the book should be stopped • Move towards more focused selection to get a more coherent set of papers on well defined themes • Move towards tighter editing to improve the quality of the exposition of chapters • Move to e-book 7
- 8. Value of AIB UK & I chapter book • Only AIB Chapter with a regular book from an established publisher • Good training ground for writing papers • Mainly used by Doctoral and Master students – contributing to enhancing the knowledge base of IB community • Useful for introducing doctoral/ECR to world of publishing – especially useful for those in home institutions with less developed research culture – an important area of diversity in our community • Future – improve usefulness (especially to students and ECR) improve dissemination of book to encourage wider readership 8
- 9. Why the ‘megatrends’ title? 9
- 10. Megatrends a definition: Tamer S. Cavusgil • Megatrends refer to watershed events in the macro environment that impact us globally. Triggers that give rise to such remarkable events may be geopolitical, economic, or natural causes. Megatrends are such extraordinary occurrences that they tend to have lasting and enduring effects. They impact business¸ economy, society, culture, our personal lives, research, and public policies, and define our future world. Their impact is persistent and far-reaching, defining the global order: relationships between nation-states, societies, and economies; firms and markets; and individuals. 10
- 11. ‘Megatrend’ is catchy, but in IB has not caught on… 11
- 12. Naisbitt’s megatrends: Which changes correspond to real global changes over time? Source: Slaughter (Futures, 1993) ”Starting points for dicussion”….?
- 13. Other megatrends? • Factors shaping and shaped by the environment: » More heavily researched (Coates, 1991; see also Slaughter, 1993) 13
- 14. Sitra’s megatrends (www.sitra.fi): understand the relationships between trends 14
- 15. Megatrends and IB • Meyer, Li & Schotter, in their review article about MNE subsidiary management (JIBS 2020), discuss research opportunities arising from two mega-trends shaping IB: technological paradigm shifts and disruptions in political and institutional environments » Note: focal megatrends were derived from the presentation of the “non-academic”, i.e., Academy of International Business Executive of the Year 2014 and then CEO of McKinsey, Dominic Barton (2014). −15
- 16. Organisation of the book 16
- 17. Content 17
- 18. Short chapter pitches (selection) 18
- 19. Firm Internationalisation and Corporate Governance: A Longitudinal Study on the Russian Federation • Randolph Luca Bruno and Kirill Osaulenko 19
- 20. Artificial Intelligence of Things as an Accelerator of Circular Economy in International Business 20 Malahat Ghoreishi, Luke Treves, and Olli Kuivalainen • AIoT creates a smart, connected network of devices that make faster, greater, and more efficient impact than ever, which in turn will give businesses and governments the ability to influence and shape not only domestic, but also international business like never before (EY, 2020) through a heightened awareness of the world, and smart tools that monitor and react to changing conditions often without human input.
- 21. Artificial Intelligence of Things as an Accelerator of Circular Economy in International Business • AIoT provides more opportunities to use knowledge stemming from various parts of the world (knowledge transfer) • Integrating AI capabilities with IoT will increase reliability, efficiency, and productivity processes (analytics, automation, reduction of middle-men and ‘friction’) • Trust-building (via e.g. related technologies like Blockchain, and ‘smart contracts’), lower transaction costs, possibility for ‘just in time’ management • AIoT data analytics enables businesses to learn more about, audit, connect with their entire value chains, including their sub tiers and sub-sub tiers where most disruptions and non-CE activities are likely to originate (Sneader and Singhal, 2021). • Data collected through these processes can be used by international businesses to influence and shape consumer behavior in increasingly precise and sophisticated ways (EY, 2020) 21
- 22. Artificial Intelligence of Things as an Accelerator of Circular Economy in International Business • From an operational perspective, there are three distinct categories of Circular Economy (CE) ecosystems: the flow of material and energy, knowledge flow, and economic value flow, which would be like the flows in a networked multinational • An example of an AIoT Circular Economy (CE) application is in the international high-tech industry, which requires circular thinking to address issues like shorter shelf lives, planned obsolescence, and changing customer preference. This leads to tons of equipment to be discarded and replaced rather than repaired and reused. • AIoT can be a used a tool to shift this current trend and improve international businesses circularity by enabling businesses and their extended supply chain partners to track and identify products from cradle to grave by efficiently managing products and components through secondary markets. • This tracking also facilitates the development of new service-based sectors which can use data collected through AIoT to identify, extract, refurbish and reuse components that still have a useful lifecycle (SAS, 2019). 22
- 23. IGOs and Entrepreneurship: Understanding the Impact of Policy Compliance on Formal and Informal Entrepreneurial Activity 23 Elizabeth M. Moore , Luis A. Dau , and Kristin Brandl
- 24. What Happens when Subsidiaries Go through a Change? Impact of Gaining an R&D Mandate on Subsidiary Managers’ Activities and Subsidiary Innovation 24 Noushan Memar, Ulf Andersson, and Edward Gillmore
- 25. Incorporating Home and Host Country Economic Growth Rates in Predicting the Impact of MNEs’ Strategic Flexibility on Local Economies 25 Walid Hejazi, Jianmin Tang, and Weimin Wang
- 26. How has the IB curriculum evolved? 26
- 27. Evolution of IB curriculum 27 • 1950s and 1960s (superior U.S. technology, marketing expertise, management) (Dunning, 1989; Martin, Heppard & Green, 2011) • 1970s (culture, consumer tastes and preferences, factor endowments -> optimal organization of foreign operations) (Dunning, 1989; Martin, Heppard & Green, 2011) • 1980s (currency fluctuations, FXR, technology, knowledge transfer and SA -> risk sharing and economies of scale) (Dunning, 1989; Martin, Heppard & Green, 2011) • IB educators need to design curricula with interdisciplinary focus (Martin, Heppard & Green, 2011)
Editor's Notes
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- Slaughter, Richard A. (1993), "Looking for the Real ‘Megatrends’," Futures, 25 (8), 827-849, doi:10.1016/0016-3287(93)90033-P The term ‘megatrends’ was coined by John Naisbitt in the early 1980s and used to describe a series of changes ostensibly taking place in the USA and elsewhere. It passed into the language and has been used widely ever since. However, the term and much of what has been attempted under its banner are not without problems. This article looks at a number of attempts to survey various trends and seeks to answer several questions. What do these sources tell us? Can a reliable overview of global change be derived from them? Is there any value in the concept of a ‘megatrend’? If so, how might it be used? If not, what pointers may be derived for the near-term future? Some of the limitations of empirical work are noted and the role of critical and epistemological approaches is discussed. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(93)90033-P
- Coates, Joseph F. (1992), "Factors Shaping and Shaped by the Environment: 1990–2010," in Ecological Indicators: Volume 1, Daniel H. McKenzie and D. Eric Hyatt and V. Janet McDonald (Eds.). Boston, MA: Springer US, 7-52. Global environmental prospects for the next 20 years are on net balance in decline. The major problems that are truly global, that is, that act and have their effects outside of and overwashing national boundaries, are worsening. Should every new source of difficulty disappear tomorrow, the problems would still worsen simply because we do not have the technology, the politics, the policy, or the will, within the time scale and framework required, to arrest adverse developments. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4659-7_1 Biswas, Rajiv (2016), Asian Megatrends. London: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137441898 Asian Megatrends assesses the key drivers impacting Asia over the next two decades. The rise of China is transforming the Asia-Pacific, as China's economic and military might increasingly reverberates throughout the region. India and Indonesia are also rising Asian powers that are changing the shape of the Asian economic landscape. The rapid growth of emerging Asian consumer markets is becoming an increasingly important growth engine for the world economy and for global multinationals. However, Asia faces tremendous economic and social challenges over the long-term, including the rapid growth of Asian megacities and severe environmental problems due to climate change, water crises and pollution. Geopolitical tensions have also been escalating in the Asia-Pacific due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, increasing the risk of a regional arms race and military confrontation. Asian Megatrends is an essential read for government officials and corporate executives wishing to understand the rapidly changing risk landscape in Asia. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137441898 Biswas, Rajiv (2018), Emerging Markets Megatrends. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78123-5 This book provides an assessment of the megatrends that are reshaping the emerging markets landscape. With developing countries already accounting for 40% of world GDP, emerging markets consumption growth will be an increasingly important growth engine for the world economy over the next two decades. However, emerging markets in many parts of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America are still facing tremendous economic challenges such as poverty, inequality, weak governance and inadequate infrastructure. The developed nations are no longer insulated from the economic shockwaves impacting developing countries, as globalisation and economic integration have also amplified the transmission effects to the West through immigration flows, cross-border crime and the proliferation of international terrorism. Emerging Markets Megatrends is an essential read for government policymakers, corporate executives, international investors and analysts wishing to understand more about the economic drivers and long-term outlook for emerging markets. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78123-5
- https://www.sitra.fi/en/topics/megatrends/ Slaughter, Richard A. (1993), "Looking for the Real ‘Megatrends’," Futures, 25 (8), 827-849, doi:10.1016/0016-3287(93)90033-P The term ‘megatrends’ was coined by John Naisbitt in the early 1980s and used to describe a series of changes ostensibly taking place in the USA and elsewhere. It passed into the language and has been used widely ever since. However, the term and much of what has been attempted under its banner are not without problems. This article looks at a number of attempts to survey various trends and seeks to answer several questions. What do these sources tell us? Can a reliable overview of global change be derived from them? Is there any value in the concept of a ‘megatrend’? If so, how might it be used? If not, what pointers may be derived for the near-term future? Some of the limitations of empirical work are noted and the role of critical and epistemological approaches is discussed. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(93)90033-P
- Meyer, Klaus E., Chengguang Li, and Andreas P. J. Schotter (2020), "Managing the MNE Subsidiary: Advancing a Multi-Level and Dynamic Research Agenda," Journal of International Business Studies, 51 (4), 538-576, doi:10.1057/s41267-020-00318-w Multinational enterprise (MNE) subsidiaries abroad are important organizations in their own rights. They typically hold some of the MNE’s most critical resources, and operate at the forefront of complex international environments. In this review, we identify and organize theoretical and empirical research on subsidiary management based on over 600 articles in leading academic journals. We develop a conceptual framework that integrates complementary streams of theoretical and empirical research with the subsidiary as its focal unit of analysis. In particular, we review six lines of research on subsidiary scope, practices, knowledge management, engagement with local market and nonmarket actors, performance, and individuals within subsidiaries. We highlight theoretical perspectives that have contributed to, and been advanced by, research on MNE subsidiaries. Based on the review, we explore future research agendas, linking the contemporary research themes with two main thrusts. First, subsidiary management is a multi-level phenomenon that would benefit from more microfoundational research. Second, subsidiary management operates at key interfaces of technology paradigm shifts, and of disruptions in the political and institutional environment. Research into the dynamics of subsidiary management would thus enhance our understanding of international business in a volatile global economy. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-020-00318-w