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Measuring the Economic Impact of the
                                             Sharing Economy
                                                         +Tim O’Reilly
                                                           @timoreilly
                                                        O’Reilly Media

                                        MIT Center for Digital Business
                                                    December 12, 2012




Sunday, December 30, 12
Measuring the Economic Impact of Sharing
                                             on the Data Economy
                                                             +Tim O’Reilly
                                                               @timoreilly
                                                            O’Reilly Media

                                            MIT Center for Digital Business
                                                        December 12, 2012




Sunday, December 30, 12
From Open Source to Open Data




Sunday, December 30, 12
I’m going to chart a course that applies what we’ve learned from open source software to the world of data. The lesson: Open data is an
imperative!
Value




Sunday, December 30, 12
And I want to talk not just about
Value
Values




Sunday, December 30, 12
but about Values. What kind of world do we want to create? We make choices about the future, and we can choose for good or
ill.
Sunday, December 30, 12
 I want to begin by referencing a series of talks I started giving in 2008, before the financial crisis struck, in which I asked
 entrepreneurs to stop focusing just on making money and instead to work on stuff that matters. There’s a blog post
 I wrote in January 2009 that summarizes some of my key points from those talks. At the time I was focused mostly on the
 silliness of so many social media and mobile apps while the world has many great and pressing problems that go unsolved.
Sunday, December 30, 12
 But, of course, the financial crash of 2008 made clear that it wasn’t just a missed opportunity, but that there was
 something fundamentally wrong with our economy. Somewhere along the line we’d gone off the rails and
 forgotten the business principle that I have always espoused at O’Reilly:
Create More Value Than You Capture




Sunday, December 30, 12
I call it “the big lie” of modern
                                               business




Sunday, December 30, 12
 This is in sharp contrast to the dominant ideology of modern capitalism over the past few decades, which says that the
 only responsibility of a company is to make money for its shareholders. Leaving aside the fact of excessive executive
 compensation as prima facie evidence that no big company really believes that principle, this notion misses the point
 that an economy is an ecosystem.
Looting
   "…the normal economics of maximizing economic value is
   replaced by the topsy-turvy economics of maximizing current
   extractable value, which tends to drive the firm's economic net
   worth deeply negative. Once owners have decided they can
   extract more from a firm by maximizing their present take, any
   action that allows them to extract more currently will be
   attractive--even if it causes a large reduction in the true
   economic net worth of the firm. A dollar in increased dividends
   today is worth a dollar to owners, but a dollar in increased
   future earnings is worth nothing because future payments
   accrue to the creditors who will be left holding the bag."
                    George Akerlof and Paul Romer, Looting (1996)
                                 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract-id=227162




Sunday, December 30, 12
 Economists George Akerlof and Paul Romer nailed this pathology in their 1996 paper on “moral hazard.” The paper
 was called Looting, and it’s endemic in not just the financial industry, but increasingly throughout our economy,
 in which companies try to extract value rather than deliver it. A startup that thinks its business model begins
 with VC money and ends with a quick exit is working the same angle as the banks.
“There’s a wonderful section in Les Miserables about the
   good that Jean Valjean does as a businessman (operating
   under the pseudonym of Father Madeleine). Through his
   industry and vision, he makes an entire region prosperous,
   so that “there was no pocket so obscure that it had not a
   little money in it; no dwelling so lowly that there was not
   some little joy within it.”

   And the key point: “Father Madeleine made his fortune;
   but a singular thing in a simple man of business, it did
   not seem as though that were his chief care. He
   appeared to be thinking much of others, and little of
   himself.”




Sunday, December 30, 12

 Contrast this with a quote from the blog post about working on stuff that matters that I cited
 in the first slide.

 It talks about how business can create value rather than just extract it.
 Income inequality




Sunday, December 30, 12
 Nick Hanauer made this point brilliantly in his TEDU talk earlier this year. Nick is a billionaire investor (first non-family investor
 in Amazon) and entrepreneur (founder of Acquantive, acquired by Microsoft for $6B, among other companies). In this talk, he
 skewers the notion that capital creates jobs. “Customers create jobs!” he says. Without people who have enough money to buy
 a product or service, no company can succeed, no matter how much capital it raises or how brilliant the ideas of its
 entrepreneurial developers.
“We all do better when
                                                                 we all do better.”




Sunday, December 30, 12
 As Nick and his co-author Eric Liu say in their book Gardens of Democracy
How do we make the economy better
                          while also creating a richer, fairer world?




Sunday, December 30, 12
 So I’ve been asking
 myself
Create More Value Than You Capture




Sunday, December 30, 12
 And I keep coming back to this
 answer.
An economy is an ecosystem




Sunday, December 30, 12
If you take more out than you put in,
                              the ecosystem eventually fails




Sunday, December 30, 12
That’s something these guys didn’t care about




            Bernie Madoff   Allen Stanford   Charles Ponzi

   And these guys seemed to forget




          Lloyd Blankfein   Jamie Dimon       Vikram Pandit
          Goldman Sachs     JP Morgan         Citigroup




Sunday, December 30, 12
But it’s something these people all deeply understood!




Sunday, December 30, 12
And their work has been re-used to create even more value




Sunday, December 30, 12
 You may be a bit surprised to see Bill Gates on that list. But of course, he exploited and the internet just as much as Google or
 Facebook. Ditto Steve Jobs. But the impact goes even further than the usual suspects.
There are all kinds of unexpected beneficiaries




                            “I built my business on open source
                             software, and I want to give something
                             back.”



                          - Hari Ravichandran
                            Endurance International Group




Sunday, December 30, 12
 This became clear to me recently when I met with Hari Ravichandran of Endurance International Group. EIG owns Bluehost and a
 number of other web hosting companies. As we talked I was reminded that, at bottom, web hosting and domain name
 registration services are really subscription business models for free software - the DNS, web server, email, and so on. Hari said
 to me
The Clothesline Paradox




                                                          If you put your clothes in
                                                          the dryer, the energy you
                                                          use is measured and
                                                          counted, but if you hang
                                                          them on the clothesline to
                                                          be dried by the sun, the
                                                          energy saved disappears
                                                          from our accounting!




Sunday, December 30, 12
 In the course of our conversation, I remembered this great piece about alternative energy that I read back in 1975 in
 The CoEvolution Quarterly, Stewart Brand’s successor to The Whole Earth Catalog. It’s called The Clothesline Paradox,
 and it made the point that ... It struck me that open source is a lot like sunshine. It disappears from our economic
 accounting.
WordPress




Sunday, December 30, 12
 We look at the financial success of explicit open source companies like Red Hat or MySQL, and while we’re proud of
 it, it’s relatively small relative to the success of proprietary companies.
Sunday, December 30, 12
 It’s a bit like the energy pie charts that Steve Baer talks about in The Clothesline Paradox, where solar
 energy shows up as this tiny slice, even though it’s really the wellspring of absolutely everything else
 in the energy pie!
Sunday, December 30, 12
 Because of course the companies whose logos appear on this slide (and many more) were built on a foundation of
 open source software, and wouldn’t exist without the generosity of those who created the internet and the world wide web,
 Linux, and the cornucopia of open source tools and languages that made the fertile soup from which today’s tech innovation
 sprang.

 According to McKinsey, the internet is now responsible for more than 3% of GDP. That’s downstream value created
 (but not captured) by open source communities.
ISP Services - a $79 Billion
                                                         market in the US alone




                                                         Web hosting and domain
                                                         name registration - a $5
                                                         Billion market




Sunday, December 30, 12
 Talking with Hari, I realized that we also need to give credit to open source for the internet service provider market. As I
 mentioned a minute ago, what does an ISP provide but subscription access to open source software, and to the vast, generative
 creativity of the sharing economy of social media and the web? Sure, they provide infrastructure, but without that software and
 without that free content, no one would give a rats ass about using their infrastructure.
Having a web site
                                                                     increases the
                                                                     productivity of small
                                                                     businesses by 10%




Sunday, December 30, 12
 But perhaps the most interesting thing that Hari pointed me to was a McKinsey report on the net’s overall impact on
 growth, jobs, and prosperity. One of the things that caught our attention was the assertion that having a web site
 increases the productivity of small businesses by 10%.
So that’s where the value gets captured - by everyone!




Sunday, December 30, 12
 So that’s where the economic value created by open source ultimately gets captured: by people who may not even know
 what open source is, but benefit from it nonetheless.
We worked with EIG’s
                                                                                    Bluehost unit on a
                                                                                    study to show the
                                                                                    benefits of open
                                                                                    source software in
                                                                                    the SMB market




          http://oreilly.com/opensource/radarreports/economic-impact-of-open-source.csp




Sunday, December 30, 12
Of the 700,000 SMBs in the Bluehost data...




Sunday, December 30, 12

More than 70% of the 1 million bluehost customers were SMBs. Applying the survey data they
provided to the
raw data set, we made this extrapolation of their revenues. It’s a total of $124 billion. Given
that we estimate that
 Bluehost represents 10-12% of`the hosting market, that means we’re talking about a $1.3
trillion market.

It’s hard to quantify how much of this value to attribute to open source and the web, but it’s
meaningful. McKinsey said there was a 10% uplift in productivity. That’s $130 billion in annual
value for small business created by a bunch of geeks giving away their software for free.
“Sharing” economies end up
                          creating real economic value




Sunday, December 30, 12

My point:
So I started thinking about
                           the “clothesline paradox”
                          in other sharing economies




Sunday, December 30, 12

What are we missing?
Why do people keep saying that users won’t pay for
        content when they are paying the same amount for
        Internet access as they pay for Cable TV?




Sunday, December 30, 12

For example, I asked myself...
Who is getting the free ride?



        When Comcast (or other Cable Company) customers
        view cable TV content, Comcast pays content
        providers.

        When Comcast customers watch YouTube, spend time
        on Facebook or Twitter, or visit websites, Comcast
        gets its content for free, much of it created by the very
        customers who are paying for access!




Sunday, December 30, 12

So it’s actually Comcast, not the user, who is getting the content without paying for it! The
internet sharing economy is a big part of what is funding the enormous profits of Cable
companies.
Sunday, December 30, 12

For example, my three year-old grandson loves to watch Thomas the Tank Engine train crash
videos made by other kids.
This one has 23 million views. Not bad for an amateur production.
Sunday, December 30, 12

So I went down to Vidcon, which is the heartland of the Youtube creator community, and it
was like going back to the early
days of the Beatles! There were literally thousands of screaming kids in the audience as
various YouTube stars came out on stage!
Sunday, December 30, 12

Here’s the line of fans waiting to get autographs from 20-something British YouTube star
Charlie McDonnell.

Vidcon was crawling with agents who used to be focused purely on Hollywood talent.
Sunday, December 30, 12

While I was there, I heard lots of interesting scuttlebutt. You may not know that when a viral
video gets uploaded
that uses copyrighted music, instead of taking it down, Google runs ads against it, and
forwards the revenue to the
music publisher. You can see the result of the ContentID match on the lower right.

What blew my mind though is that I heard one story about a major pop star who makes more
money on YouTube
than on iTunes, and more than half of that comes from “unofficial” videos that use her music
as a soundtrack,
rather than from her own official tracks. That’s the sound of the sharing economy being
monetized.
Sunday, December 30, 12

And of course open source software and the creative video economy are only part of a bigger
sharing economy. Overall, there are thousands of companies exploring what Lisa Gansky calls
the Mesh - the sharing economy.
Sunday, December 30, 12

What started out as a sharing economy - “couchsurfing” - is turning into serious businesses
like AirBnB. They are really accelerating. After being around for four years, they
hit a total of 5 million room nights shared this past February. It took them only another four
months to double that.
They hit 10 million room nights in June. And they say that they are getting a lot of traction in
depressed European
economies like Spain and Greece as people look for new ways of supplementing income.
Sunday, December 30, 12

Shelby Clark of RelayRides told me recently that people are buying a second car just for
sharing.
Sunday, December 30, 12

Even Silicon Valley darlings like Jack Dorsey’s second company, Square, started out by trying
to create a kind of peer to peer economy, in which anyone can take credit cards.
Sunday, December 30, 12

Now, like the web, Square is revolutionizing the retail experience for small merchants. I don’t
know how many of you have tried the combination of Square Register and the Square wallet
app. It automatically checks you in when you walk into a participating merchant. Your name
and face appear on the register, and since your payment details are already on file, all the
retail clerk has to do is confirm your identity, as shown in this screen shot.
What about data?




Sunday, December 30, 12
Sunday, December 30, 12

Google has taken a leadership role in making clear that users own their own data, and can
always extract it from Google products. Other companies should join in their data liberation
efforts.
Sunday, December 30, 12

But much as I think it is important for users to own their own data, and to be able to extract
it from cloud services, so many of the benefits of data come only when it is shared. That’s
why I look instead to open, shared data. In the area of open science, I’d point you to the
Panton Principles, which outline the rules of the road for open data in research.
 google home page / information age




Sunday, December 30, 12

And as some of you may know, I’ve been focused for the past few years on the importance of
open government data. This is a huge area where we see the clothesline paradox at work.

I’ve always found myself wondering why people aren’t more aware of how government data
powers non-governmental services that citizens take for granted, many of them never taking
the time to think how much government investment went into building the infrastructure that
makes it possible for the private sector to offer services like weather predictions.
GPS: A 21st century platform launched in 1973




Sunday, December 30, 12

How about Global positioning satellites. Here government investment in a hard, long term
project, is paying off in uncounted new private sector developments.

A huge project with uncertain return, started in 1973 and now showing enormous fruit in the
21st century, with huge value add from the commercial sector. Everything from maps and
directions on your phone to
future self-driving cars spring from this platform investment, and the key policy decision to
open the data and
make it available for commercial use. No one dreamed of the unexpected applications that
became possible by opening up this data. That’s why we need open web services by default.
Sunday, December 30, 12

Mapping services have taken data developed at great expense by government and turned it
into hugely powerful experiences for citizens. Here are my walking directions from my hotel
to this venue today, courtesy of Google, but also of centuries of government investment in
mapping services. Not to mention that Google Transit directions got its start with the
government of Portland, Oregon, who in classic internet style, proposed a data specification
for transit timetables that could be consumed by third party applications.
Government as a platform means an end to the design
                  of only complete, closed “applications.” Instead the
                  government should provide fundamental services on
                  which we, the people, (also known as “the market”)
                  build applications.




Sunday, December 30, 12

That’s why I’ve been trying to shift the mindset from government as a vending machine for
services paid by taxes, to the notion that government should be a platform.
What happens when you throw open the doors to partners




                                               More than 50,000 iPhone applications in the first year! Now at 688,000




Sunday, December 30, 12

Apple showed us the power of this kind of entrepreneurial explosion when they turned the
smartphone into a platform with the introduction of the iPhone app store. We went from
phones that had twenty or thirty apps cooked up in a back room deal to a platform that
allows anyone to come up with new features.

This is the kind of platform I’d like to see for government.
Sunday, December 30, 12

Code for America is a nonprofit I’ve been working with on this idea. Code for America
provides new kinds of engagement, working with local governments to build simple,
beautiful and easy-to-use interfaces to government services and challenging government to
reinvent the way it engages with citizens. We do a lot of work with open data.
Sunday, December 30, 12

This coming year, we’re going to be working with New York City and Louisville KY on a
project that Anne Milgram from the Arnold Foundation, calls Moneyballing Criminal Justice. It
turns out that pre-trial incarceration is one of the biggest costs for cities. Using predictive
analytics to figure out who to release on bail can save huge sums for cities, but more
importantly, it can save jobs and families. Keep someone in jail unnecessarily and they may
lose their job, forcing them into the very life of crime we’re trying to avoid.
Sunday, December 30, 12

At Code for America, we’ve capitalized on the idea that open data can also be the basis for
new companies, by launching a startup accelerator, finding and nurturing creative startups
who are re-using or opening up government data, creating new interfaces to government
services, or building tools that will help governments to engage with their community.
 Health datapalooza




Sunday, December 30, 12

This same kind of building a commercial ecosystem based on government open data has
characterized Todd Park’s work on open data at HHS. Rather than just opening the data, he
proactively sought out partners who could consume government data. For example, HHS had
a huge database of hospital and nursing home quality and user satisfaction metrics, which
now helps to power Bing’s hospital search, and not just the HHS Hospital Compare
application.

The HHS open data initiative now features a thriving developer conference,
hundreds of apps, and numerous funded startups.
Sunday, December 30, 12

The Obama administration is now trying to replicate this open data/ government as a
platform playbook in other areas like energy.
Sunday, December 30, 12

and Education.
Sunday, December 30, 12

Learnsprout is one of the companies in the Code for America accelerator that is focused on
opening up education data.
Sunday, December 30, 12

I’ve put Alex Howard on the job of mapping out the entrepreneurial economy built on open
government data. Follow his posts on the Radar blog to see more on this topic.
Sunday, December 30, 12

But health care is the field I’m most excited about where shared data can make a difference
for society.

Data science is going to make a huge difference in healthcare. I became so convinced of that
that I launched a new conference called StrataRx, which will be held here in Boston next year.
Sunday, December 30, 12

I also wrote a short ebook on the subject, How Data Science is Transforming Health Care.

I don’t have time to go into all the details today, but the report is a free download.
 patientslikeme and collaborative clinical trials




Sunday, December 30, 12

But just to give two examples that show the tie to the sharing economy...
What we see from initiatives like PatientsLikeMe is the role of peer-to-peer open data in
creating value.
Sunday, December 30, 12

Sites like 23andme are sitting on a boundary between personal data and public good. Your
data is yours, but they encourage you to share and to participate in what is essentially a giant
crowdsourced research project linking genotype data to phenotype surveys.
Don’t just think about how much
                          business value you can extract from data




Sunday, December 30, 12

In conclusion,
Think about how much value
                          you can create for customers
                                 and for society




Sunday, December 30, 12

Thank you very much.
Thank you!

                          @timoreilly #MITbigdata




Sunday, December 30, 12

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Measuring the Economic Impact of the Sharing Economy

  • 1. Measuring the Economic Impact of the Sharing Economy +Tim O’Reilly @timoreilly O’Reilly Media MIT Center for Digital Business December 12, 2012 Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 2. Measuring the Economic Impact of Sharing on the Data Economy +Tim O’Reilly @timoreilly O’Reilly Media MIT Center for Digital Business December 12, 2012 Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 3. From Open Source to Open Data Sunday, December 30, 12 I’m going to chart a course that applies what we’ve learned from open source software to the world of data. The lesson: Open data is an imperative!
  • 4. Value Sunday, December 30, 12 And I want to talk not just about Value
  • 5. Values Sunday, December 30, 12 but about Values. What kind of world do we want to create? We make choices about the future, and we can choose for good or ill.
  • 6. Sunday, December 30, 12 I want to begin by referencing a series of talks I started giving in 2008, before the financial crisis struck, in which I asked entrepreneurs to stop focusing just on making money and instead to work on stuff that matters. There’s a blog post I wrote in January 2009 that summarizes some of my key points from those talks. At the time I was focused mostly on the silliness of so many social media and mobile apps while the world has many great and pressing problems that go unsolved.
  • 7. Sunday, December 30, 12 But, of course, the financial crash of 2008 made clear that it wasn’t just a missed opportunity, but that there was something fundamentally wrong with our economy. Somewhere along the line we’d gone off the rails and forgotten the business principle that I have always espoused at O’Reilly:
  • 8. Create More Value Than You Capture Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 9. I call it “the big lie” of modern business Sunday, December 30, 12 This is in sharp contrast to the dominant ideology of modern capitalism over the past few decades, which says that the only responsibility of a company is to make money for its shareholders. Leaving aside the fact of excessive executive compensation as prima facie evidence that no big company really believes that principle, this notion misses the point that an economy is an ecosystem.
  • 10. Looting "…the normal economics of maximizing economic value is replaced by the topsy-turvy economics of maximizing current extractable value, which tends to drive the firm's economic net worth deeply negative. Once owners have decided they can extract more from a firm by maximizing their present take, any action that allows them to extract more currently will be attractive--even if it causes a large reduction in the true economic net worth of the firm. A dollar in increased dividends today is worth a dollar to owners, but a dollar in increased future earnings is worth nothing because future payments accrue to the creditors who will be left holding the bag." George Akerlof and Paul Romer, Looting (1996) http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract-id=227162 Sunday, December 30, 12 Economists George Akerlof and Paul Romer nailed this pathology in their 1996 paper on “moral hazard.” The paper was called Looting, and it’s endemic in not just the financial industry, but increasingly throughout our economy, in which companies try to extract value rather than deliver it. A startup that thinks its business model begins with VC money and ends with a quick exit is working the same angle as the banks.
  • 11. “There’s a wonderful section in Les Miserables about the good that Jean Valjean does as a businessman (operating under the pseudonym of Father Madeleine). Through his industry and vision, he makes an entire region prosperous, so that “there was no pocket so obscure that it had not a little money in it; no dwelling so lowly that there was not some little joy within it.” And the key point: “Father Madeleine made his fortune; but a singular thing in a simple man of business, it did not seem as though that were his chief care. He appeared to be thinking much of others, and little of himself.” Sunday, December 30, 12 Contrast this with a quote from the blog post about working on stuff that matters that I cited in the first slide. It talks about how business can create value rather than just extract it.
  • 12.  Income inequality Sunday, December 30, 12 Nick Hanauer made this point brilliantly in his TEDU talk earlier this year. Nick is a billionaire investor (first non-family investor in Amazon) and entrepreneur (founder of Acquantive, acquired by Microsoft for $6B, among other companies). In this talk, he skewers the notion that capital creates jobs. “Customers create jobs!” he says. Without people who have enough money to buy a product or service, no company can succeed, no matter how much capital it raises or how brilliant the ideas of its entrepreneurial developers.
  • 13. “We all do better when we all do better.” Sunday, December 30, 12 As Nick and his co-author Eric Liu say in their book Gardens of Democracy
  • 14. How do we make the economy better while also creating a richer, fairer world? Sunday, December 30, 12 So I’ve been asking myself
  • 15. Create More Value Than You Capture Sunday, December 30, 12 And I keep coming back to this answer.
  • 16. An economy is an ecosystem Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 17. If you take more out than you put in, the ecosystem eventually fails Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 18. That’s something these guys didn’t care about Bernie Madoff Allen Stanford Charles Ponzi And these guys seemed to forget Lloyd Blankfein Jamie Dimon Vikram Pandit Goldman Sachs JP Morgan Citigroup Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 19. But it’s something these people all deeply understood! Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 20. And their work has been re-used to create even more value Sunday, December 30, 12 You may be a bit surprised to see Bill Gates on that list. But of course, he exploited and the internet just as much as Google or Facebook. Ditto Steve Jobs. But the impact goes even further than the usual suspects.
  • 21. There are all kinds of unexpected beneficiaries “I built my business on open source software, and I want to give something back.” - Hari Ravichandran Endurance International Group Sunday, December 30, 12 This became clear to me recently when I met with Hari Ravichandran of Endurance International Group. EIG owns Bluehost and a number of other web hosting companies. As we talked I was reminded that, at bottom, web hosting and domain name registration services are really subscription business models for free software - the DNS, web server, email, and so on. Hari said to me
  • 22. The Clothesline Paradox If you put your clothes in the dryer, the energy you use is measured and counted, but if you hang them on the clothesline to be dried by the sun, the energy saved disappears from our accounting! Sunday, December 30, 12 In the course of our conversation, I remembered this great piece about alternative energy that I read back in 1975 in The CoEvolution Quarterly, Stewart Brand’s successor to The Whole Earth Catalog. It’s called The Clothesline Paradox, and it made the point that ... It struck me that open source is a lot like sunshine. It disappears from our economic accounting.
  • 23. WordPress Sunday, December 30, 12 We look at the financial success of explicit open source companies like Red Hat or MySQL, and while we’re proud of it, it’s relatively small relative to the success of proprietary companies.
  • 24. Sunday, December 30, 12 It’s a bit like the energy pie charts that Steve Baer talks about in The Clothesline Paradox, where solar energy shows up as this tiny slice, even though it’s really the wellspring of absolutely everything else in the energy pie!
  • 25. Sunday, December 30, 12 Because of course the companies whose logos appear on this slide (and many more) were built on a foundation of open source software, and wouldn’t exist without the generosity of those who created the internet and the world wide web, Linux, and the cornucopia of open source tools and languages that made the fertile soup from which today’s tech innovation sprang. According to McKinsey, the internet is now responsible for more than 3% of GDP. That’s downstream value created (but not captured) by open source communities.
  • 26. ISP Services - a $79 Billion market in the US alone Web hosting and domain name registration - a $5 Billion market Sunday, December 30, 12 Talking with Hari, I realized that we also need to give credit to open source for the internet service provider market. As I mentioned a minute ago, what does an ISP provide but subscription access to open source software, and to the vast, generative creativity of the sharing economy of social media and the web? Sure, they provide infrastructure, but without that software and without that free content, no one would give a rats ass about using their infrastructure.
  • 27. Having a web site increases the productivity of small businesses by 10% Sunday, December 30, 12 But perhaps the most interesting thing that Hari pointed me to was a McKinsey report on the net’s overall impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity. One of the things that caught our attention was the assertion that having a web site increases the productivity of small businesses by 10%.
  • 28. So that’s where the value gets captured - by everyone! Sunday, December 30, 12 So that’s where the economic value created by open source ultimately gets captured: by people who may not even know what open source is, but benefit from it nonetheless.
  • 29. We worked with EIG’s Bluehost unit on a study to show the benefits of open source software in the SMB market http://oreilly.com/opensource/radarreports/economic-impact-of-open-source.csp Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 30. Of the 700,000 SMBs in the Bluehost data... Sunday, December 30, 12 More than 70% of the 1 million bluehost customers were SMBs. Applying the survey data they provided to the raw data set, we made this extrapolation of their revenues. It’s a total of $124 billion. Given that we estimate that Bluehost represents 10-12% of`the hosting market, that means we’re talking about a $1.3 trillion market. It’s hard to quantify how much of this value to attribute to open source and the web, but it’s meaningful. McKinsey said there was a 10% uplift in productivity. That’s $130 billion in annual value for small business created by a bunch of geeks giving away their software for free.
  • 31. “Sharing” economies end up creating real economic value Sunday, December 30, 12 My point:
  • 32. So I started thinking about the “clothesline paradox” in other sharing economies Sunday, December 30, 12 What are we missing?
  • 33. Why do people keep saying that users won’t pay for content when they are paying the same amount for Internet access as they pay for Cable TV? Sunday, December 30, 12 For example, I asked myself...
  • 34. Who is getting the free ride? When Comcast (or other Cable Company) customers view cable TV content, Comcast pays content providers. When Comcast customers watch YouTube, spend time on Facebook or Twitter, or visit websites, Comcast gets its content for free, much of it created by the very customers who are paying for access! Sunday, December 30, 12 So it’s actually Comcast, not the user, who is getting the content without paying for it! The internet sharing economy is a big part of what is funding the enormous profits of Cable companies.
  • 35. Sunday, December 30, 12 For example, my three year-old grandson loves to watch Thomas the Tank Engine train crash videos made by other kids. This one has 23 million views. Not bad for an amateur production.
  • 36. Sunday, December 30, 12 So I went down to Vidcon, which is the heartland of the Youtube creator community, and it was like going back to the early days of the Beatles! There were literally thousands of screaming kids in the audience as various YouTube stars came out on stage!
  • 37. Sunday, December 30, 12 Here’s the line of fans waiting to get autographs from 20-something British YouTube star Charlie McDonnell. Vidcon was crawling with agents who used to be focused purely on Hollywood talent.
  • 38. Sunday, December 30, 12 While I was there, I heard lots of interesting scuttlebutt. You may not know that when a viral video gets uploaded that uses copyrighted music, instead of taking it down, Google runs ads against it, and forwards the revenue to the music publisher. You can see the result of the ContentID match on the lower right. What blew my mind though is that I heard one story about a major pop star who makes more money on YouTube than on iTunes, and more than half of that comes from “unofficial” videos that use her music as a soundtrack, rather than from her own official tracks. That’s the sound of the sharing economy being monetized.
  • 39. Sunday, December 30, 12 And of course open source software and the creative video economy are only part of a bigger sharing economy. Overall, there are thousands of companies exploring what Lisa Gansky calls the Mesh - the sharing economy.
  • 40. Sunday, December 30, 12 What started out as a sharing economy - “couchsurfing” - is turning into serious businesses like AirBnB. They are really accelerating. After being around for four years, they hit a total of 5 million room nights shared this past February. It took them only another four months to double that. They hit 10 million room nights in June. And they say that they are getting a lot of traction in depressed European economies like Spain and Greece as people look for new ways of supplementing income.
  • 41. Sunday, December 30, 12 Shelby Clark of RelayRides told me recently that people are buying a second car just for sharing.
  • 42. Sunday, December 30, 12 Even Silicon Valley darlings like Jack Dorsey’s second company, Square, started out by trying to create a kind of peer to peer economy, in which anyone can take credit cards.
  • 43. Sunday, December 30, 12 Now, like the web, Square is revolutionizing the retail experience for small merchants. I don’t know how many of you have tried the combination of Square Register and the Square wallet app. It automatically checks you in when you walk into a participating merchant. Your name and face appear on the register, and since your payment details are already on file, all the retail clerk has to do is confirm your identity, as shown in this screen shot.
  • 44. What about data? Sunday, December 30, 12
  • 45. Sunday, December 30, 12 Google has taken a leadership role in making clear that users own their own data, and can always extract it from Google products. Other companies should join in their data liberation efforts.
  • 46. Sunday, December 30, 12 But much as I think it is important for users to own their own data, and to be able to extract it from cloud services, so many of the benefits of data come only when it is shared. That’s why I look instead to open, shared data. In the area of open science, I’d point you to the Panton Principles, which outline the rules of the road for open data in research.
  • 47.  google home page / information age Sunday, December 30, 12 And as some of you may know, I’ve been focused for the past few years on the importance of open government data. This is a huge area where we see the clothesline paradox at work. I’ve always found myself wondering why people aren’t more aware of how government data powers non-governmental services that citizens take for granted, many of them never taking the time to think how much government investment went into building the infrastructure that makes it possible for the private sector to offer services like weather predictions.
  • 48. GPS: A 21st century platform launched in 1973 Sunday, December 30, 12 How about Global positioning satellites. Here government investment in a hard, long term project, is paying off in uncounted new private sector developments. A huge project with uncertain return, started in 1973 and now showing enormous fruit in the 21st century, with huge value add from the commercial sector. Everything from maps and directions on your phone to future self-driving cars spring from this platform investment, and the key policy decision to open the data and make it available for commercial use. No one dreamed of the unexpected applications that became possible by opening up this data. That’s why we need open web services by default.
  • 49. Sunday, December 30, 12 Mapping services have taken data developed at great expense by government and turned it into hugely powerful experiences for citizens. Here are my walking directions from my hotel to this venue today, courtesy of Google, but also of centuries of government investment in mapping services. Not to mention that Google Transit directions got its start with the government of Portland, Oregon, who in classic internet style, proposed a data specification for transit timetables that could be consumed by third party applications.
  • 50. Government as a platform means an end to the design of only complete, closed “applications.” Instead the government should provide fundamental services on which we, the people, (also known as “the market”) build applications. Sunday, December 30, 12 That’s why I’ve been trying to shift the mindset from government as a vending machine for services paid by taxes, to the notion that government should be a platform.
  • 51. What happens when you throw open the doors to partners More than 50,000 iPhone applications in the first year! Now at 688,000 Sunday, December 30, 12 Apple showed us the power of this kind of entrepreneurial explosion when they turned the smartphone into a platform with the introduction of the iPhone app store. We went from phones that had twenty or thirty apps cooked up in a back room deal to a platform that allows anyone to come up with new features. This is the kind of platform I’d like to see for government.
  • 52. Sunday, December 30, 12 Code for America is a nonprofit I’ve been working with on this idea. Code for America provides new kinds of engagement, working with local governments to build simple, beautiful and easy-to-use interfaces to government services and challenging government to reinvent the way it engages with citizens. We do a lot of work with open data.
  • 53. Sunday, December 30, 12 This coming year, we’re going to be working with New York City and Louisville KY on a project that Anne Milgram from the Arnold Foundation, calls Moneyballing Criminal Justice. It turns out that pre-trial incarceration is one of the biggest costs for cities. Using predictive analytics to figure out who to release on bail can save huge sums for cities, but more importantly, it can save jobs and families. Keep someone in jail unnecessarily and they may lose their job, forcing them into the very life of crime we’re trying to avoid.
  • 54. Sunday, December 30, 12 At Code for America, we’ve capitalized on the idea that open data can also be the basis for new companies, by launching a startup accelerator, finding and nurturing creative startups who are re-using or opening up government data, creating new interfaces to government services, or building tools that will help governments to engage with their community.
  • 55.  Health datapalooza Sunday, December 30, 12 This same kind of building a commercial ecosystem based on government open data has characterized Todd Park’s work on open data at HHS. Rather than just opening the data, he proactively sought out partners who could consume government data. For example, HHS had a huge database of hospital and nursing home quality and user satisfaction metrics, which now helps to power Bing’s hospital search, and not just the HHS Hospital Compare application. The HHS open data initiative now features a thriving developer conference, hundreds of apps, and numerous funded startups.
  • 56. Sunday, December 30, 12 The Obama administration is now trying to replicate this open data/ government as a platform playbook in other areas like energy.
  • 57. Sunday, December 30, 12 and Education.
  • 58. Sunday, December 30, 12 Learnsprout is one of the companies in the Code for America accelerator that is focused on opening up education data.
  • 59. Sunday, December 30, 12 I’ve put Alex Howard on the job of mapping out the entrepreneurial economy built on open government data. Follow his posts on the Radar blog to see more on this topic.
  • 60. Sunday, December 30, 12 But health care is the field I’m most excited about where shared data can make a difference for society. Data science is going to make a huge difference in healthcare. I became so convinced of that that I launched a new conference called StrataRx, which will be held here in Boston next year.
  • 61. Sunday, December 30, 12 I also wrote a short ebook on the subject, How Data Science is Transforming Health Care. I don’t have time to go into all the details today, but the report is a free download.
  • 62.  patientslikeme and collaborative clinical trials Sunday, December 30, 12 But just to give two examples that show the tie to the sharing economy... What we see from initiatives like PatientsLikeMe is the role of peer-to-peer open data in creating value.
  • 63. Sunday, December 30, 12 Sites like 23andme are sitting on a boundary between personal data and public good. Your data is yours, but they encourage you to share and to participate in what is essentially a giant crowdsourced research project linking genotype data to phenotype surveys.
  • 64. Don’t just think about how much business value you can extract from data Sunday, December 30, 12 In conclusion,
  • 65. Think about how much value you can create for customers and for society Sunday, December 30, 12 Thank you very much.
  • 66. Thank you! @timoreilly #MITbigdata Sunday, December 30, 12