Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!

5,016 views

Published on

My keynote at SxSW Interactive on March 9, 2018. I tackle the job of the entrepreneur to redraw the map, and not to accept the idea that technology will put people out of work rather than creating new kinds of prosperity. I try to provide a call to action to throw off the shackles of the old world and to build a new one. So many companies play defense. Cut costs, watch the competition, follow best practices. Great entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk play offense. They see the world with fresh eyes, taking off the blinders that keep companies using technology to make slight improvements to existing products and practices, rather than imagining the world as it could be, given the new capabilities that technology has given us.

Published in: Technology
  • //DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... //DOWNLOAD PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y8nn3gmc } ......................................................................................................................... //DOWNLOAD EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y8nn3gmc } ......................................................................................................................... //DOWNLOAD doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y8nn3gmc } ......................................................................................................................... //DOWNLOAD PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y8nn3gmc } ......................................................................................................................... //DOWNLOAD EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y8nn3gmc } ......................................................................................................................... //DOWNLOAD doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y8nn3gmc } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!

  1. Do More. Do Things That Were Previously Impossible! Tim O’Reilly @timoreilly oreilly.com wtfeconomy.com SxSW March 9, 2018
  2. Will there really be nothing left for people to do? Is there really nothing left for humans to do?
  3. Dealing with climate change Rebuilding our infrastructure Feeding the world Ending disease Resettling refugees Caring for each other Educating the next generation Enjoying the fruits of shared prosperity
  4. What is keeping us from working on stuff that matters?
  5. WTF? Amazement or Dismay? wtfeconomy.com
  6. Our maps of the world are steering us wrong In 1625, we thought California was an island
  7. In 2005, we thought the connected taxicab looked like this
  8. This was science fiction, until it wasn’t
  9. And you thought drones would deliver pizza
  10. 1. In 2018, we believe that it is technology that will put people out of work
  11. What happened when Amazon added 45,000 robots
  12. Jeff Bezos calls this “the flywheel”
  13. Amazon ran this same play in cloud computing Radically lower prices Create demand for something that didn’t really exist yet Open up Amazon’s platform so others provide more services Create more demand
  14. Give people new superpowers
  15. Michael Mandel on ecommerce vs retail  Since 2007, hours worked by production and nonsupervisory employees in the digital sector have risen by 8.5 percent compared to a 3.4 percent increase in the physical sector.  The ecommerce sector is adding jobs much faster than the general retail sector is losing them.  The ecommerce sector added 355,000 jobs from 2007 to 2016—more than enough to compensate for the 51,000 jobs lost in the general retail sector.  Wage and salary payments to ecommerce workers have increased by almost $18 billion since 2007, in 2016 dollars. By comparison, real wage and salary payments to workers in general retail have risen by less than $1 billion over the same period. http://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Tech-middle-class-3-9-17b.pdf
  16. “Frontier Firms” are more productive, and eventually pay everyone more
  17. 100 years Lister’s Mill, Bradford
  18. Why Innovation Takes Time to Show Up in Productivity James Bessen
  19. It is not just technology innovation, but the diffusion of knowledge through society about how to use new technology that makes a difference in making us all richer.
  20. Eventually, there were dozens of specialized machines, and complicated workflows. But that wasn’t all. In addition to inventing new machines, people had to learn to use them, fix them, improve them. Systems were needed for distributing and selling the wealth of new products. An educated, prepared workforce is an ecosystem.
  21. We sent children to school instead of the fields and factories
  22. On Demand Learning
  23. A platform for people to teach each other
  24. “In order to fully reap the benefits of a changing economy— and sustain growth over the long-term—businesses will need to increase the earnings potential of the workers who drive returns, helping the employee who once operated a machine learn to program it. They must improve their capacity for internal training and education to compete for talent in today’s economy and fulfill their responsibilities to their employees.” Larry Fink, CEO, Blackrock
  25. Values Alert: Structural Changes In the Economy “In the 35 years between their jobs as janitors, corporations across America have flocked to a new management theory: Focus on core competence and outsource the rest.”
  26. It is machines that help us to feed 7 billion
  27. Our digital systems enhance our capabilities with software and data the way our physical systems use heavy equipment  Users post 7 billion pieces of content to Facebook a day.  Expecting human fact checkers to catch fake news is like asking workers to build a modern city with only picks and shovels.  At internet scale, we now rely increasingly on algorithmic systems to manage what we see and believe.
  28. “I’ve just invested in an AI startup that will put 30% of call center workers out of a job.” (A VC who shall remain nameless)
  29. Don’t replace people. Augment them!
  30. This is what technology wants “Prosperity in human societies is best understood as the accumulation of solutions to human problems. We won’t run out of work until we run out of problems.” Nick Hanauer
  31. The March of Progress
  32. Technology is our superpower
  33. Inequality is our kryptonite
  34. 2. In 2018, we still believe that it’s acceptable for companies to maximize their profits, regardless of the social, environmental and human consequences
  35. We’ve heard from the economists and financial writers
  36. What the great technology platforms teach us about the economy and the future of work wtfeconomy.com
  37. Fitness Landscapes The way in which genes contribute to the survival of an organism can be viewed as a landscape of peaks and valleys. Through a series of experiments, organisms evolve towards fitness peaks, adapted to a particular environment, or they die out. Image source: http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/side_0_0/complexnovelties_02
  38. Fitness landscapes are dynamic When conditions are stable, a population chooses one fitness peak and stays there. But when conditions change, populations must migrate to a new fitness peak.
  39. Local Maxima Once you are on a peak, it’s hard to get to another one, even if it’s higher. You have to go back down. It may be easier to get to the top if you are already starting from a valley floor.
  40. Technology also has a fitness landscape In my career, I’ve watched a number of migrations to new peaks, and I’d like to share with you some observations about what happened, and why. And then we’ll talk about some lessons for companies like Google, but also for the overall economy. Personal Computer Big Data and AI Smartphones Apple
  41. Big Data and AI Tim Berners-Lee, 1990 The World Wide Web Linus Torvalds, 1991 Linux
  42. This happens in politics as well Voters are moving away from the fitness peak of the neoliberal consensus. We don’t know yet where that new fitness peak will be, but the migration is telling us loud and clear that the economy needs some fresh thinking.
  43. Yes, things are changing. But one thing doesn’t change. A successful ecosystem creates opportunity for everyone, not just a few.
  44. “Society is demanding that companies, both public and private, serve a social purpose. To prosper over time, every company must not only deliver financial performance, but also show how it makes a positive contribution to society. Companies must benefit all of their stakeholders, including shareholders, employees, customers, and the communities in which they operate.” Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock
  45. BCG’s Sustainable Economic Development Assessment
  46. Total Societal Impact as Business Advantage
  47. Climate change has been a classic driver for the change in fitness landscapes, for organisms and for civilizations.
  48. 3. In 2018, too many people still believe that technology is a magic bullet fired from the same old gun
  49. Death Star Thinking “What’s the lesson too many people take from that first and most influential episode in the franchise back in 1977? One incredibly well-placed shot into the thermal exhaust port and the entire apparatus of our oppression explodes spectacularly. All we really needed were the plans to the Death Star and a very talented fighter pilot guided by the truth (“the Force”.) Never mind that there are countless Death Stars ahead of us as the Imperial war (and the franchise) continues. That one glorious victory and the release it provided became the implicit theory of change.” Jennifer Pahlka, Death Star Thinking and Government Reform Jennifer Pahlka
  50. Why simply adding an app doesn’t change the game for taxis
  51. “A business model is the way that all of the parts of a business work together to create competitive advantage and customer value.” - Dan and Meredith Beam
  52. A Business Model Map of Southwest Airlines Low ticket prices Short-haul, point to point routes No seat assignments No baggage forwarding Lean gate and ground crews Highly paid employees Flexible union contracts High level of employee stock ownership
  53. A Business Model Map of Uber  A magical app that lets drivers and passengers find each other in real time  A networked marketplace of drivers and passengers  Augmented workers able to join the market as and when they wish  Managed by algorithm
  54. The Augmented Worker Neo: “Can you fly that thing?” Trinity: “Not yet.”
  55. Gradually, then suddenly 1. We are creating new kinds of partnerships between machines and humans 2. Artificial Intelligence and algorithmic systems are everywhere 3. The world is becoming infused with the digital
  56. We see the same thing with Uber and Lyft Oxford Internet Institute study:  50% more total hours worked  Higher wages per hour https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/Uber_Drivers_of_Disruption.pdf
  57. But…
  58. Platforms are marketplaces. They have to work for all of their participants. wtfeconomy.com
  59. Creating a “thick marketplace” Markets are outcomes. A better designed marketplace can have better outcomes.
  60. The great opportunity of the 21st century is to use our newfound cognitive tools to build better marketplaces
  61. 4. In 2018, we believe that human-hostile AI is a future risk
  62. We are all living and working inside a machine
  63. The coming robots are not autonomous
  64. Symbiogenesis and the origin of eukaryotic cells: “species form new composite entities by fusion and merger” “Nearly all extranuclear genes are derived from bacteria or other sorts of microbes. In the search for what genes outside the nucleus really are, I became more and more aware that they're cohabiting entities, live beings. Live small cells reside inside the larger cells…. different bacteria form consortia that, under ecological pressures, associate and undergo metabolic and genetic change such that their tightly integrated communities result in individuality at a more complex level of organization. The case in point is the origin of nucleated (protoctist, animal, fungal, and plant) cells from bacteria…. species form new composite entities by fusion and merger.” Lynn Margulis
  65. Biological symbiosis doesn’t stop there “All zoology is really ecology. We cannot fully understand the lives of animals without understanding our microbes and our symbiosis with them…. When we look at beetles and elephants, sea urchins and earthworms, parents and friends, we see individuals, working their way through life as a bunch of cells in a single body, driven by a single brain, and operating with a single genome. This is a pleasant fiction. In fact, we are legion, each and every one of us. Always a ‘we’ and never a ‘me’.... Heed Walt Whitman: “I am large, I contain multitudes.” Ed Yong
  66. From genes to memes “Language doesn’t emerge de novo in each person; it is passed, with little modification, from generation to generation. We speak the language of our parents, they spoke the language of their parents, and so on, further and further back in the past.” – John Skoyles
  67. And you can think of the Internet as the next evolutionary step
  68. AI is “the most serious threat to the survival of the human race” Elon Musk
  69. The runaway objective function “Even robots with a seemingly benign task could indifferently harm us. ‘Let’s say you create a self-improving A.I. to pick strawberries,’ Musk said, ‘and it gets better and better at picking strawberries and picks more and more and it is self-improving, so all it really wants to do is pick strawberries. So then it would have all the world be strawberry fields. Strawberry fields forever.’ No room for human beings.” Elon Musk, quoted in Vanity Fair https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/elon-musk- billion-dollar-crusade-to-stop-ai-space-x
  70. Algorithmic systems have an “objective function” Uber and Lyft: Passenger pick up time Google: Relevance Facebook: Engagement What is the objective function of our financial markets?
  71. The Equinix NY4 data center, where trillions of dollars change hands
  72. We didn’t mean to increase inequality and gut our economy “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits” Milton Friedman, 1970
  73. Zeynep Tufekci Author of Twitter and Teargas
  74. “The art of debugging is figuring out what you really told your program to do rather than what you thought you told it to do.” Andrew Singer Andrew Singer
  75. 5. In 2018, we are still trying to revive the old economy, rather than inventing the future that is possible now
  76. “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren” The world of his grandchildren—the world of those of us living today— would, “for the first time . . . be faced with [mankind’s] real, his permanent problem—how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.” John Maynard Keynes John Maynard Keynes
  77. Divergence of productivity and real median family income in the US
  78. There’s plenty to go around. It’s just not going around!
  79. “If total US household income of $8.495 trillion were shared by America’s 116 million households, each would earn $73,000, enough for a decent middle- class life.” Brian Arthur
  80. The fundamental economic question is no longer how to incentivize production but how to incentivize fair distribution of the fruits of increased productivity Brian Arthur
  81. So what are we going to do about this?
  82. It is the job of the entrepreneur to redraw the map
  83. We Need the “Human Colossus” to Work on Stuff that Matters
  84. What’s the Future? It’s Up To us wtfeconomy.com
  85. Tim O’Reilly  Founder & CEO, O’Reilly Media  Partner, O’Reilly AlphaTech Ventures  Board member, Code for America  Co-founder, Maker Media @timoreilly • O’Reilly AI Conference • Strata: The Business of Data • JupyterCon • O’Reilly Open Source Summit • Maker Faire • Foo Camp • … • 40,000+ ebooks • Tens of thousands of hours of video training • Live training • Millions of customers • A platform for knowledge exchange • Commercial internet • Open source software • Web 2.0 • Maker movement • Government as a platform • AI and The Next Economy

×