The document discusses key drivers of technological change in transportation including air quality, global warming, energy security, and congestion relief. It notes that transportation is the largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions, with passenger vehicles accounting for 27% in 2006. To reduce emissions, more non-carbon based fuels like electricity and hydrogen must be used, and vehicle efficiency through improved gas mileage must increase. Energy security means a reliable affordable energy supply. Congestion relief will require technological improvements to transportation like automated vehicles and roadways. The economy is a main driver, as consumers seek affordable mobility. The automobile of 2035 will likely use traditional and new fuels, and could see widespread electric vehicle fast charging and hydrogen refueling, as well as

1. Steve Mazor Manager, Automotive Research Center & Chief Automotive Engineer

2. Drivers of Technological Change Ground Level Air Quality “Smog” Global Warming – Greenhouse Gas Reduction Energy Security Congestion Relief THE ECONOMY—THE COST TO GET FROM HERE TO THERE

3. LA at its Worst

4. The Goal

6. Greenhouse Gas Reductions Transportation is the largest single man-made source with passenger vehicles accounting for 27% in 2006 When carbon-based fuels are burned (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, propane, ethanol, etc.) exhaust is essentially H20 and CO2

7. Greenhouse Gas Reductions Must use more non-carbon based fuels such as electricity (although some carbon- based fuels are used to generate electricity) or hydrogen Improve vehicle efficiency since improved mpg = reduced CO2 emissions

8. Energy Security Really means that we want to insure a reliable supply of affordable energy, no matter what happens elsewhere Home-produced fuels (CNG, ethanol, bio-diesel, electricity, hydrogen) Fuel diversity reduces sensitivity to upheavals

9. Congestion Relief We want to be able to get where we are going in a timely fashion We will not be able to build our way out of congestion Technological improvements leading to automated vehicles and roadways will help

11. The Economy This is really the main driver from the consumers’ side People will do what they can to be able to afford mobility For example, the increased demand for high mpg vehicles due to today’s high fuel prices

12. The Auto in 2035 Significant portion of fleet will use “traditional” fuels, although these fuels may be unrecognizable We may have already seen the demand peak in California for petroleum-based fuels Could see EV “fast-charging” stations that can provide 80% charge in a few minutes Could see hydrogen refueling stations on every corner like today’s gasoline stations Automated vehicles/roadways will appear. Electrified vehicles are a natural fit into automation systems Other options may appear