The document summarizes a study that analyzed the potential for increased fuel efficiency in US vehicles through 2035. The study found that a tripling of new vehicle fleet efficiency is feasible and cost-effective by around 2035 without electrification, through optimized use of available fuel-saving technologies. The costs of achieving higher fuel efficiency were estimated and found to be less than the lifetime fuel savings for consumers. While fuel efficiency depends on both technology and vehicle design priorities, establishing it as a top priority could significantly reduce oil dependence and emissions.

1. Policy Matters : Perspectives on Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy John M. DeCicco School of Natural Resources and Environment & Energy Institute  University of Michigan Center for Automotive Research Management Briefing Seminars Traverse City, Michigan  August 2011

7. New fleet average fuel economy New U.S. Light Duty Combined Fleet Source: U.S. EPA Fuel Economy Trends report 2010 On-road MPG Horsepower to Weight Ratio Test Weight 2.6%/yr 2004-10 4.4%/yr 1975-87

8. Engine specific output trends Source: EPA Fuel Economy Trends report; selections from Ward's 10 Best Engines, 2006-10 53 kW/L

9. MIT simulation results Source: Kasseris & Heywood, SAE 2007-01-1605; to convert kJ/m to CAFE MPG, divide into 94.6.  A factor of three reduction (i.e., 3x fuel economy) is in sight.

13. Cost curves New fleet average Retail Price Equivalent (RPE) Source: A Fuel Efficiency Horizon for U.S. Automobiles (September 2010)

14. Costs vs. Benefits of Higher Efficiency Efficiency Horizon model technology costs and discounted lifetime benefits (2010$)

15. White House CAFE Proposal 40 * *Plausible window-sticker rating, accounting for A/C credits and MPG shortfall.

16. Comparing Cost Estimates Projected cost of 56 mpg (nominal) in 2025 over MY 2010 fleet RPE in 2010$ Retail Price Equivalent (RPE) estimates from each study were adjusted relative to a common MY2010 baseline using costs from published CAFE rules and to 2010$ using GDP price deflator. Agency Report (Joint TAR, Sept 2010) value works from the estimate of $2,100 (2007$) for the lowest cost technology case (Path C), inflated to 2010$ and then adjusted upward by $997 to account for cumulative regulatory costs through the MY2012-16 Joint Rule. *BCG-based estimate is extrapolation from their stated cost of ~$2,200 for a 40% CO 2 reduction. $2,700 $3,300 $6,800 For 54.5 mpg target, a preliminary cost estimate is ~$3,100 $3,100

17. New Car Price Trends Source: BEA Average Transaction Price per New Car, via Ward's Yearbook 2011 2010$ Dollars of the day

19. Relative Technology Benefits and Costs GASOLINE HYBRID H 2 FUEL CELL PLUG-IN HYBRID BATTERY ELECTRIC Projected cost impacts and GHG reductions for efficiency- optimized midsize cars in 2035 relative to a 2005 baseline DIESEL TDI GASOLINE GASOLINE TDI An evolutionary path can carry the U.S. automobile fleet quite far with manageable costs for technology and minimal risks for customer acceptance. Baseline Vehicle 