1) A mathematical model was developed to investigate factors contributing to rising HIV notifications in Australia, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Victoria and Queensland. 2) The model found that without an increase in other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), changes in behavior and treatment couldn't fully explain increased notifications. 3) For the model to fit observed data, a 5-fold increase in other STIs nationally and even larger increases in Victoria and Queensland were required.