This document discusses scenarios for Australia's electricity grid in 2050 and the transition underway. It outlines four scenarios: 1) modest renewable adoption with "set and forget" demand management; 2) widespread distributed energy with consumers selling excess power; 3) many consumers disconnecting from the grid with distributed generation and storage; and 4) large-scale renewable generation and storage with modest distributed resources. It argues the transition from centralized fossil fuels to decentralized renewables will profoundly change the electricity system and requires new regulatory, business and technology solutions to enable this transition over the next decade and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

1. Future Grid Forum
CSIRO Energy Flagship
Mark Paterson
ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAMEENERGY FLAGSHIP

2. An unprecedented transformation...
“The world’s electricity network will
change more in the next 20-years
than it has in the last 100”
IBM Energy & Utilities, ‘Smart Infrastructure – Building the Intelligent Grid of Tomorrow’, Enercom Conference (March 2009).
Australia's Electricity Futures (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

3. Social
Licence
Enabling
Technology
RegulationEconomics
New
Business
Models Electricity
Ecosystem
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

4. Australia’s Future Grid Forum
Industry-led
Whole-of-system
Long-term orientation to 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

5. Participants
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Generators
TNSPs
DNSPs
Government
& Regulators
Energy
Retailers
End-users,
NGOs &
Others
Suppliers /
Business
ACOSS
AMIRA
CEC
CEFC
EEC
Grattan Institute
Smart Grid Aust
The Climate Institute
Total Environment Ctr
University of Sydney
Stanwell Corporation
Hydro Tasmania
ESAA
GE
Alstom
AmpControl
Ernst & Young
Landis+Gyr
Siemens
Stockland
DRET
AER
AEMC
AEMO
ARENA
BREE
State Govt: Qld, SA & Vic
Aust Local Govt Assoc
Grid Australia:
Electranet
SP Ausnet
Powerlink
Transend
Transgrid
Western Power
Ausgrid
Aurora Energy
Citipower
Energex
Ergon Energy
SA Power Ntwks
Western Power
ERAA
AGL
Origin Energy

6. Four 2050 scenarios
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Set and forget Leaving the grid
Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive

7. Scenario 1: Set and forget
• Closest to a linear path of evolution
from the present
• Generation:
o 30% from renewable sources
o 19% from distributed sources
• Modest uptake of energy storage
and electric vehicles
• Widespread adoption of ‘set and
forget’ demand management
solutions offered by networks
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

8. Scenario 2: Rise of the prosumer
• Extensive transition to distributed
energy networks
• Generation:
o 41% from renewable sources
o 46% from distributed sources
• Modest uptake of energy storage and
electric vehicles
• Majority see value proposition of
remaining grid-connected
• Networks now ‘transact’ electrons
between thousands of sites
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

9. Scenario 3: Leaving the grid
• Extensive transition toward user
autonomy underpinned by distributed
generation and storage
• Generation:
o 64% from renewable sources
o 31% from distributed sources
• Moderate uptake of electric vehicles
• ~30% are not convinced of grid value
proposition and have entirely
disconnected by 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

10. Scenario 4: Renewables thrive
• Extensive transition to centralised
renewables
• Generation:
o 86% from renewable sources
o 26% from distributed sources
• Centralised generation primarily from
renewable sources + large-scale
storage
• System is supported by extensive
uptake of electric vehicles and
modest uptake of DG and DS
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

11. Projected on-site generation share
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

12. Grid-supplied electricity consumption
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

13. Projected network utilisation
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

14. Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

15. 2015-25 Decade of Transition
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

16. Seven observations about nature of this
profound transition...
1. Network-centric → Customer-centric
2. Centralised → Decentralised/Hybrid
3. Fossil fuel generation → Continuous decarbonisation
4. Regulated natural monopoly → Increasing exposure to
competition
5. 20 – 50% of electricity generated locally by 2050
6. Grid continues to play a critical (but evolved) role in 2050
7. Current decision-making processes risk being outpaced in the
2015-25 decade en route to 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

17. Eight ‘must haves’...
1. Treat the community as adults and partners
on a journey to a new place
2. New models for accelerated decision-making
and industry adaptation
3. New tools for network forecasting in a highly-
distributed future
4. Ubiquitous ‘taming’ of peak demand spikes is
critical for network optimisation
5. Cost-reflective pricing of electricity + enabling
technologies ( ‘transactive’ network)
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

18. Eight ‘must haves’...
6. National review of the social safety net parallel
to tariff reforms
7. ‘Re-invention’ of NSP business models – need
to decide what you are going to be!
8. Further regulatory reform where necessary to
enable new NSP business models
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

19. The Future Grid
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

20. CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship
Mark Paterson
Energy Flagship
t 0459 841 006
e mark.paterson@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au/energy
ENERGY TRANSFORMED FLAGSHIP
Thank you