The document summarizes trends in the UK manufacturing sector from 2000-2012. It describes how manufacturing output fell sharply during the recession in 2008-2009 due to declining domestic and foreign demand. Export orders recovered in 2010 as sterling depreciated, and manufacturers replenished inventories. While output grew strongly in the recovery, rising costs led to inflation. Sentiment deteriorated in late 2011 due to concerns about political and economic conditions abroad. The outlook is that manufacturing output will continue rising modestly, supported by export orders, but long-term challenges remain around higher commodity prices.
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3. ...as demand both at home and abroad fell
sharply...
% balance Manufacturing order books (above/below normal)
+20
+10 Total order books Export order books
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey
5. Demand began to recover over H2 2009 and
2010
% balance Manufacturing order books (above/below normal)
+20
+10 Total order books Export order books
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
2008
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey
6. Export orders were boosted by a sharp
depreciation in Sterling
Jan 2005=100 Sterling effective exchange rate
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2011
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Bank of England
7. Manufacturers began to replenish inventories
Volume of stocks
% balance
+20
Raw materials Work in progress Finished goods
+10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2011
2004
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey
8. Both factors facilitated a strong recovery in
the manufacturing sector
% balance Volume of output
+40
+30
+20
+10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey
9. But sharply rising costs led to a strong build
up of inflationary pressure
+70
% balance Costs and output prices
+60
Average unit costs Domestic output prices
+50
+40
+30
+20
+10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2006
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey
11. Concern over political and economic
conditions abroad rose sharply
% of
Factors likely to limit export orders:
respondents
political/economic conditions abroad
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey
12. But demand began to recover at the turn of
this year...
% balance Manufacturing order books (above/below normal)
+20 Total order books Export order books
+10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
2011
2006
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey
15. A comparatively weak Sterling will continue
to support export orders
Jan 2005 = 100 Sterling effective exchange rate
110
105
100
95
90 CBI forecast
85
80
75
70
2011
2007
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
Source: Bank of England/CBI
16. But longer-term challenges arise from a period
of structurally higher commodity prices
GMO chart?
Source: McKinsey & Company: “Resource Revolution: Meeting the world’s
energy, materials, food and water needs”, November 2011
17. Strong need to rebalance exports towards
BRICs and emerging markets
% Destination of UK exports vs GDP growth forecasts
18
Share of UK exports (% of total) Average annual % growth 2011-16
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
United States Germany Netherlands France China India Russia Brazil
Source: IMF/ONS
18. Sectors that exploit strong emerging market
demand are likely to thrive
Automotive Civil aviation
• Automobiles currently account • Strong growth in global
for 10% of UK exports passenger traffic
• Can benefit from strong • But emerging market
Chinese demand – the world’s manufacturers also looking to
largest automotive market. establish presence
Electrical and optical & High end/luxury consumer
high-tech goods goods
• The UK already has a strong
comparative advantage • A growing wealthy middle class
in emerging economies will be
• Rising incomes and a potential market.
demographic changes in EMEs
– expect approx 10% growth
per annum.
Source: CBI
19. In summary…
● Manufacturing was severely impacted by the global downturn in
2008/2009.
● After a robust recovery, the sector saw softer activity in H2 2011.
● But, demand and output expectations have recently been stronger.
● Challenges ahead:
– Adjustment to a period of higher and more volatile raw materials prices.
– Need to sustain growth by re-orientating exports to high growth markets.