The document discusses the importance of mineral resources like phosphorus and potash for food security and economic growth. It notes that while phosphorus reserves are large, improved sustainability is needed. Potash production needs to double to meet global demand. Fertilizer minerals present a challenge to ensure affordable access for growing populations, particularly in Africa. More research is needed to develop alternatives if conventional fertilizers become inaccessible.

1. Living with minerals 4
Shaping UK minerals policy
Globalism to localism
7 November 2011

2. EU Raw Materials Supply Initiative
– update
Gwenole Cozigou, Director
European Commission Enterprise and
Industry
Directorate-General
Living with minerals 4: Shaping UK minerals policy
Globalism to localism

3. Living with minerals 4
Shaping UK minerals policy
Globalism to localism
7 November 2011

4. Case studies – the link between
minerals
and security of food supply and
other uses
Professor David Manning, Professor of
Soil Science
Newcastle University
Living with minerals 4: Shaping UK minerals policy
Globalism to localism

5. The Link Between Minerals and
Security of Food Supply
David Manning FGS CSci CGeol EurGeol
Professor of Soil Science
Newcastle University

6. At the heart of the problem
Global population is growing, but (overall) at a
decreasing rate:
7 billion in 2012
9 billion in 2050

7. At the heart of the problem
Global population is growing, but (overall) at a
decreasing rate:
7 billion in 2012
9 billion in 2050
Africa: 1 billion in 2012
2 billion in 2050

8. At the heart of the problem
The global population needs mineral resources.
GDP and mineral use correlate:
Minerals
GDP
USGS: Rogich, D.G., and Matos, G.R., 2008, The global flows of metals and minerals: U.S. Geological
Survey Open-File Report 2008–1355, 11 p., available only online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1355/.

9. We need minerals more than ever
• As raw materials for industry
• As fuels
• As fertilisers
But there are pressures:
• How can we guarantee security of raw material
supply?
• What about ‘peak phosphorus’?
• How can we reconcile fossil fuel use with climate
change, and keep the lights on?
• What might the alternatives be?

10. We need to understand minerals more
than ever
• And to use intelligence:

11. Fertiliser minerals
• These illustrate very well some of the
paradoxes that exist
• They are absolutely essential to support
human life
• When we remove a crop, we mine nutrients
from the soil
• When we import a crop, do we pay the
farmers enough to replace the nutrients?

12. The price of fertilisers has boomed:

13. Fertiliser prices
• Prices peaked in 2008
• N and P price rises matched those of oil,
and came down to pre-2008 levels
• K has stayed high
• K reached $1000/tonne in some markets
in 2008
• K is three times the price it was in 2007
(now almost $500/tonne)

14. What about phosphorus?
• Cordell, D., Drangert, J.-O., and White, S., (2009) The Story of Phosphorus: Global food security and food
for thought. Global Environmental Change, 19, 292-305

15. 16 countries produce 95% of the
world’s P (159 MT phosphate rock)
30% global production 10-20% global production 1-10% global production

16. The phosphorus paradox
• People talk about ‘peak phosphorus’, based on
analogies with oil
This does not take into account
the huge resource base; very
different from oil.
• Cordell, D., Drangert, J.-O., and White, S., (2009)
The Story of Phosphorus: Global food security
and food for thought. Global Environmental
Change, 19, 292-305

17. Reserves are only part of the story
P resources are enormous (USGS)

18. Phosphorus occurs in abundance
• USGS reports that there are 1600 known
phosphorus mines, extinct, dormant, active.
• P reserves (and projected life) have increased
from 100 years to nearly 400 years:
Tonnes phosphate rock

19. Phosphorus occurs in abundance
• USGS reports that there are 1600 known
phosphorus mines, extinct, dormant, active.
• P reserves (and projected life) have increased
from 100 years to nearly 400 years:
Financial Times, 7 September 2011
Tonnes phosphate rock

20. The phosphorus paradox
• Why do we throw away so much P?
• Phosphate pollution is a major issue –
how can we use P more sustainably?
– Struvite (NH4MgPO4.6H2O)
– Sewage as a source of P
We can recover P from waste waters

21. Potash (K)
• Very different to P
• Much more soluble
• More limited in terms of sources
• Not a pollutant, apparently
Difficult to recover from waste waters

22. Why is K so important?
K is a vital mineral component of all crops:
K that is consumed has to be replaced.

23. Demand for potash
• Although northern hemisphere countries have
enough K inputs, there are major shortfalls in
K addition elsewhere.
• Nutrient balance studies show that
replacement of K removed with crops is often
inadequate.
• Worldwide potash mine production needs to
double to balance offtake at the present day.

24. Africa, for example:
Sheldrick and Lingard
(2004):

25. Africa, for example:
Sheldrick and Lingard From FAO data:
(2004): Africa consumes 485000
T potash/year.
47/57 African countries
buy no K fertiliser.
About 1.5% of world
potash production feeds
15% of the world’s
population.

26. 12 countries produce 99% of the
world’s K (33.5 MT K2O equivalent)
35% global production 10-20% global production 1-10% global production

27. Potash production
• Very different to P:
Tonnes K2O

28. Potash is big
business

29. Potash price and supply
• Unlikely to go below $350/tonne
• World production needs to double
• Suppliers control the market

30. 90% of potash reserves are found in
North America
35% global production 10-20% global production 1-10% global production

31. Fertiliser minerals present a challenge
• Will conventional products be accessible
(price, logistics) to growing populations, which
will double in Africa?
• How can we use our knowledge of
geological/soil processes to fill the gaps in
provision, if conventional fertilisers are
inaccessible?
An urgent area for research

32. Conclusions
• Minerals are vital for society
• The challenge of the next 30 years is enormous
• We need intelligence and expertise of the type
that the British Geological Survey provides
• The materials that we need to mine are in the
ground
• Our universities need to create new knowledge
to rise to the challenge