A presentation by Robert A. Stahl, Educator, Author and S&OP Coach, R.A. Stahl Company, USA. Delivered during the 38th annual SAPICS event for supply chain professionals in South Africa at Sun City, North West province. S&OP has been around for a long time and remains one of the most prolific supply chain pursuits today. This is because it has gotten simpler and better, aligning human energy and helping companies manage through the increasing uncertainty of the 21st Century. Doing S&OP properly brings about bottom line benefits not before possible. Many, however, continue to misunderstand what it is about S&OP that makes it so powerful. Learn from this presentation how the benefits of S&OP do not come from doing what you do better, but from doing things differently to be better. For leadership, this creates an additional obstacle of discomfort that in their mind translates to risk. This requires an implementation approach that will mitigate that risk. Learn from the expert during this 3-hour workshop.

1. Managing in an
Uncertain World
Bob Stahl
eS&OP Coach
R.A. Stahl Company

2. Your
Company
Uncertainty is Ubiquitous
Uncertainty
Economy
Regulations
Taxes/Tariffs
Health Care
Employment
Variability
Customers
Suppliers
Transportation
Shoppers
Timing

3. Succeeding In Uncertain Markets . . .
“Business leaders today have an ever-
increasing amount of data at their fingertips.
But when it comes to forecasting, this data
and the models they feed only provide an
illusion of precision and control.
Demand fluctuations are inherently
unpredictable so the key to success is not
to try to predict the variability but rather to
employ a strong process that manages
through the variability.
Phil Dolce, CEO
The Stow Company

4. Bob Stahl Background
• 40+ years in manufacturing companies
- Started as Schedules Coordinator (1970)
• With help of Oliver Wight, achieved Class A success (1979)
• Became an associate of Oliver Wight – 1981 (passed in 1983)
• Have worked with some of the best companies in the world
- Today = S&OP Coach, Educator, Author
• Has written six (6) books with Tom Wallace –
- three (3) have been used for APICS Certification
- translated into seven (7) languages
• S&OP Editor and Columnist –
- Inaugural for the IIF’s Journal of Forecasting - Foresight
• Heads up support services for TFWallace & Company
• “Retired” = choices

5. Something to ponder . . .
“Service to others is
the rent you pay for your
room here on earth.”
Muhammed Ali
I’m no longer trying to
make a living . . . I’m
trying to make a
difference

6. Your
Company
Uncertainty is Ubiquitous
Uncertainty
Economy
Regulations
Taxes
Health Care
Employment
Variability
Customers
Suppliers
Transportation
Shoppers
Timing

7. What to do about Uncertainty
Manage Thru
External
Uncertainty
Your
Company
Uncertainty Variability
Eliminate
Internal
Uncertainty
“. . . the aim is less to
predict the future,
than to prepare for it’s
inevitable variability.”
David Orrell
Int’l Inst. of Forecasters

8. “I don’t like forecasting . . .
particularly when the future
is involved!”
Yogi Berra

9. Typical Responses to Uncertainty are
(Natural, but) Flawed
Seek more detail,
farther out

10. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Accuracy Uncertainty
The Farther Out, the Less Valuable
Detail Becomes

11. Suicide Quadrant . . .
(Worst of All Worlds)
PTF
Horizon
Detail
I
Suicide
Quadrant
II
Aggregate
Only
Quadrant
III
Building to
Customer
Demand
Published2001

12. Typical Responses to Uncertainty are
(Natural, but) Flawed
Seek more detail,
farther out
Hunker down… internally
focused, self-
preservation mode

13. 1
Multiple Constituencies . . .
Customers
Employees
(Suppliers, Community, Country, Planet)
Owners
Center
Of
Gravity
Desired Force = CentripetalNatural Force = Centrifugal

14. Priority #1 – Get On the Same Page
(Inside your Company)
Maximize your ability to react
within the financial constraints you can tolerate.
Capabilities Constraints

15. Raising Disagreement . . .
A process to raise and reconcile
disagreement/conflict, agree upon, &
communicate THE company game plan
Sales/Marketing
(Demand)
Operations
(Supply)
Finance
(Fiduciary Resp.)
Product Dev.
(Future Innovation)
President

16. The Ugly Moose . . .
• Big ugly animal
• All companies have them (under the table)
• Difficult & Contentious
• Good companies know how to disagree
without being disagreeable
• Thrive on conflict, not chaos
• Moose is a symbol of agreement to do so
Getting the Moose on the Table

17. Conflict Resolution * . . .
• Disagreement has two parts:
– Substantive issue
– Emotion behind that issue
• Disagreement becomes Conflict
when both parts are not completely
addressed
• Lasting Conflict Resolution must
deal with BOTH elements of
disagreement
• Doing that effectively can be learned:
– With a motive to do so &
– A framework on which to work
* “Gettingto Resolution” – Stewart Levine, JD

18. Conflict . . .
“Conflict
is the root of all
Waste”
April 19, 2016
“Learn to identify and
address the common
culprits of conflict
that manifest as waste .
. .”

19. Priority #2 – Simplify
Demand models need only be as “accurate”
as your tolerance window &
fiscal constraints require
(Mis)Perception of
precision and
predictability
Plethora of data…
see the forest

20. Fog of Uncertainty . . .
Can diminish our
ability to see
simple solutions.

21. “Ultimate
Sophistication is
Simplicity” *
* Oliver Wight

22. Priority #3 – Engage
Establish a Collaborative Consensus
through a defined and disciplined process
Goal is to understand the tolerance windows across each
piece of the supply chain

23. Succeeding In Uncertain Markets . . .
“Business leaders today have an ever-increasing amount of data at
their fingertips. But when it comes to forecasting, this data and
the models they feed only provide an illusion of precision and
control. Demand fluctuations are inherently unpredictable so the
key to success is not to try to predict the variability but rather to
employ a strong process that manages through the variability.
The most effective process is executive S&OP,
but it must be embraced across the entire
organization for maximum impact.
Moreover, some of the best practices in eS&OP are
counterintuitive such as operating with less detail. The
benefits of a successful implementation are real (increased
operating profit, reduced working capital, and increased service
levels) and worth the investment.”
Phil Dolce, CEO
The Stow Company

24. 2
5
The eS&OP Process
Step #1
Data
Gathering
End of Month
Decisions &
Game Plan
Step #5
Executive
Meeting
Step #2
Demand
Planning
Step #4
Pre-S&OP
Meeting
Step #3
Supply
Planning
Creates a
Disciplined
Rhythm

25. The Real Challenge . . .
Understanding Executive S&OP is simple.
The hard part is . . .
Behavioral/Cultural
Change
changing the way everyone does their jobs.
Keys: - Full cross functional buy-in
- Counter-experiential/intuitive
- Comfort vs Change
- Path of low risk
60/30/10 Rule (The Success Rule):
• 60% = Behavior / Culture Change
• 30% = Process Definition & Discipline
• 10% = Technology
Lora Cecere
Boston 2010

26. Keys to “Managing Thru”
Simplify
Maximize flexibility (Agile)
Engage entire organization
Engage entire supply chain
Understand others’ constraints
Be transparent, especially with
assumptions

27. Key Takeaways
• Accept that uncertainty / variability is
inherently uncontrollable
• Use eS&OP to manage thru uncertainty &
variability by engaging all stakeholders
–Inside your enterprise
–Upstream and downstream in your supply
chain
• Align Human Energy by resolving conflict,
gaining collaborative consensus

28. A Truth . . .
If you align
human energy
an organization can do things
not before possible.

29. 3
Center of Gravity . . .
Customers
Employees
(Suppliers, Community, Country, Planet)
Owners
eS&OP

30. Meet the International Speaker
(10:35 – 11:05)
Speaker’s Corner
Atrium #1
(between SYSPRO Lounge &
I-Plan Networking Area

31. Good Luck . . .
When
Preparation
meets
Opportunity

32. Thanks for Listening . . .
Good Luck & Best Wishes
Bob Stahl
RStahlSr@aol.com
508-226-0477 (USA)
www.RAStahlCompany.com