Viability's Guy Wilkinson writes a monthly column for Hotelier Middle East Magazine. This article originally appeared in September 2011. For more information about Viability, please visit http://www.linkedin.com/company/2347942 or http://www.viability.ae/

1. 20
RESEARCH EXCLUSIVE
Lucky for some
Viability director Guy Wilkinson will present his exclusive GCC hotel industry pipeline
research at the Hotelier Middle East Great GM Debate this month. Here’s a sneak peek…
drilled down to verify the status of
each project confirmed to us last year.
We found that no less than 58 proj-
ects had been ‘put on hold’ or can-
celled altogether since the 2010 rank-
ings, accounting for 15,757 potential
rooms. Since the recession started in
earnest, back in 2009, we calculate
that around 50,000 rooms in total
have fallen into this category.
Due mainly to continuing financial
uncertainties in various parts of the
GCC, many hotel projects have also
COLUMNIST
been delayed. To be precise, 98 proj-
ects had been delayed by between
hey say 13 is an unlucky num- one and five years compared to their
T ber and in this 13th year of my
GCC future hotel pipeline
survey, the numbers are down
for the second consecutive year.
Over the last five years, the total
Hilton will be opening six hotels with more than 4000 rooms at Jabal Omar in Makkah, Saudi Arabia.
OUR INVESTIGATIONS REVEALED THAT 167
original programmes declared to us
in 2010, and this is without taking into
account that in many cases they were
already behind schedule by at least a
year last year. However, our inves-
pipeline of confirmed future hotels tigations revealed that 167 projects
increased from 199 in 2007 to a peak
PROJECTS WERE STILL BANG ON SCHEDULE, were still bang on schedule, which
of 325 in 2009, then fell to 283 last WHICH REPRESENTS 61% OF THE TOTAL, AS represents 61% of the total, as com-
year and 274 this year. In terms of COMPARED TO JUST 50% IN 2010 pared to just 50% in 2010. There were
room count, the 2011 total amounts even nine projects that were ahead of
to 77,020 hotel rooms (excluding ser- schedule, perhaps reflecting an exces-
viced apartments and villas) com- sive level of pessimism about market
pared to 92,026 in record year 2009. prospects on the part of their develop-
My team of expert researchers at ers in previous years.
TOP 30 RANKING BY PROPERTIES Viability Management Consultants Indeed, the picture in 2011 is far
33
35
30 PROJECT STATUS CHART 2011
26
24
25 Delayed 4 years, 2,1% Delayed 5 years, 1,0%
20
Delayed 3 years, 13,5% Advanced 1 year, 9,3%
20
18
17
17
15
15 Delayed 2 years, 32,12%
10
9
9
10
7
7
7
6
5
4
4
4
4
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
0
Delayed 1 year,
Marriott
IHG
Hilton
Rotana
Accor
Starwood
Millennium
Best Western
Movenpick
Rezidor
Coral
Fairmont Raffles
Golden Tulip
Kempinski
Jumeirah
Citymax
Four Seasons
Hyatt
Wyndham
Anantara
City Seasons
MENA
Premier Inn
QNH
Ramee
Ayla
Banyan Tree
Formosa
Mandarin Oriental
MGM
Others
50,18%
On time, 167,61%
September 2011 • Hotelier Middle East www.hoteliermiddleeast.com