The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
1. Global slowdown underway
2. Impact of trade tensions greater and more prolonged than expected
3. Exports, manufacturing and investment worst hit
4. Central banks have responded with rate cuts and QE
5. Monetary easing has supported equities, recovering after a sell off in August
6. Consumers remain key driver of activity
7. Slow growth to continue, risks tilted to the downside
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
1. Global activity continues to ease
2. Significant slowdown in euro area
3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
4. Rate expectations pushed back as central banks make dovish statements
5. Equities sold off in May with investors switching to bonds
6. 2020 UK growth heavily dependent on Brexit settlement
7. Risks to global growth tilted to the downside
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
1. Global slowdown underway
2. Impact of trade tensions greater and more prolonged than expected
3. Exports, manufacturing and investment worst hit
4. Central banks have responded with rate cuts and QE
5. Monetary easing has supported equities, recovering after a sell off in August
6. Consumers remain key driver of activity
7. Slow growth to continue, risks tilted to the downside
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
1. Global activity continues to ease
2. Significant slowdown in euro area
3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
4. Rate expectations pushed back as central banks make dovish statements
5. Equities sold off in May with investors switching to bonds
6. 2020 UK growth heavily dependent on Brexit settlement
7. Risks to global growth tilted to the downside
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
This presentation by Adrian Blundell-Wignall shows key figures from the 2015 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook.
Find more information about the Outlook at
http://www.oecd.org/daf/oecd-business-finance-outlook.htm
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q3 2020 | Region Focus : BakkenMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Using the data, explain two likely causes of the forecast of slower growth for the UK economy
Examine two difficulties facing economists when forecasting economic growth
You’ll see from the reports in this edition of Market Monitor that, while there are tentative signs of
economic stabilisation, these are tempered by indicators that still advise caution for future trade.
Germany has recorded positive growth since the summer, but we still expect bank lending to
continue to decline. Spain, in contrast, records negative growth forecasts for the short- and mid-term,
but at least our indicators show that the high tide of payment defaults and insolvencies may finally
have peaked. In the UK, however, a turnaround in the rising insolvency trend is still not in sight, and
the troubled construction sector is forecast to continue to suffer into 2010. That said, the car
scrappage scheme, which started later than in many other countries, will provide some cushion for
the automotive sector in the coming six months.
Against this background, we continue to urge caution, not just when embarking on new trading
ventures, but also in trade with established customers. Essentially, businesses need to tread more
carefully in ALL their sales transactions – monitoring changes in the payment behaviour of current
customers and taking extra care in assessing the financial strength of new prospects.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on the retail and chemicals sectors
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Czech Republic
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q4 2020 | Region Focus: Appal...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics. This issue we focus on the Appalachian Basin.
The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q2 results - Policy change is biggest concern fo...Deloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
Policy change has emerged as the biggest concern for chief financial officers, ahead of economic uncertainty.
- Policy change is biggest concern for CFOs.
- Perceptions of economic and financial uncertainty have hit a four-year low.
- CFO appetite for risk remains high as corporates shift from balance sheet repair to growth.
- 51% of CFOs expect interest rates to be equal to or above 1.0% in a year’s time.
This is the 28th quarterly survey of chief financial officers and group finance directors of major companies in the UK.
The Q2 2014 survey took place between 6th and 23rd June.
112 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 31 FTSE 100 and 37 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 68 UK-listed companies surveyed is £473 billion, or approximately 21% of the UK quoted equity market.
The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q2 results - Risk appetite at new highDeloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
Risk appetite among the chief financial officers (CFOs) of the UK’s largest companies has reached a seven year high.
- CFO risk appetite hits a seven year high despite economic and financial uncertainties.
- CFOs more positive on government policies and give strong vote of confidence to Bank of England.
- Worries over UK political risks eclipse economic risks for CFOs.
- Credit cheaper and more available than any time in seven years.
This is the 29th quarterly survey of chief financial officers and group finance directors of major companies in the UK.
The Q3 2014 survey took place between 8th and 22nd September.
118 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 28 FTSE 100 and 40 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 79 UK-listed companies surveyed is £462 billion, or approximately 20% of the UK quoted equity market.
The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
This presentation by Adrian Blundell-Wignall shows key figures from the 2015 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook.
Find more information about the Outlook at
http://www.oecd.org/daf/oecd-business-finance-outlook.htm
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q3 2020 | Region Focus : BakkenMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Using the data, explain two likely causes of the forecast of slower growth for the UK economy
Examine two difficulties facing economists when forecasting economic growth
You’ll see from the reports in this edition of Market Monitor that, while there are tentative signs of
economic stabilisation, these are tempered by indicators that still advise caution for future trade.
Germany has recorded positive growth since the summer, but we still expect bank lending to
continue to decline. Spain, in contrast, records negative growth forecasts for the short- and mid-term,
but at least our indicators show that the high tide of payment defaults and insolvencies may finally
have peaked. In the UK, however, a turnaround in the rising insolvency trend is still not in sight, and
the troubled construction sector is forecast to continue to suffer into 2010. That said, the car
scrappage scheme, which started later than in many other countries, will provide some cushion for
the automotive sector in the coming six months.
Against this background, we continue to urge caution, not just when embarking on new trading
ventures, but also in trade with established customers. Essentially, businesses need to tread more
carefully in ALL their sales transactions – monitoring changes in the payment behaviour of current
customers and taking extra care in assessing the financial strength of new prospects.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on the retail and chemicals sectors
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Czech Republic
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q4 2020 | Region Focus: Appal...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics. This issue we focus on the Appalachian Basin.
The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q2 results - Policy change is biggest concern fo...Deloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
Policy change has emerged as the biggest concern for chief financial officers, ahead of economic uncertainty.
- Policy change is biggest concern for CFOs.
- Perceptions of economic and financial uncertainty have hit a four-year low.
- CFO appetite for risk remains high as corporates shift from balance sheet repair to growth.
- 51% of CFOs expect interest rates to be equal to or above 1.0% in a year’s time.
This is the 28th quarterly survey of chief financial officers and group finance directors of major companies in the UK.
The Q2 2014 survey took place between 6th and 23rd June.
112 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 31 FTSE 100 and 37 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 68 UK-listed companies surveyed is £473 billion, or approximately 21% of the UK quoted equity market.
The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q2 results - Risk appetite at new highDeloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
Risk appetite among the chief financial officers (CFOs) of the UK’s largest companies has reached a seven year high.
- CFO risk appetite hits a seven year high despite economic and financial uncertainties.
- CFOs more positive on government policies and give strong vote of confidence to Bank of England.
- Worries over UK political risks eclipse economic risks for CFOs.
- Credit cheaper and more available than any time in seven years.
This is the 29th quarterly survey of chief financial officers and group finance directors of major companies in the UK.
The Q3 2014 survey took place between 8th and 22nd September.
118 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 28 FTSE 100 and 40 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 79 UK-listed companies surveyed is £462 billion, or approximately 20% of the UK quoted equity market.
The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
The Deloitte CFO Survey: 2013 Q2 resultsDeloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
The second quarter's Deloitte CFO Survey, published on 9th July 2013, shows a sharp rise in risk appetite at the top end of the corporate sector and a shift towards expansionary strategies.
The Deloitte CFO Survey, launched in 2007, is a quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major UK companies. Over 300 CFOs, mainly from FTSE 350 companies, have joined the CFO Survey panel. The Survey captures shifts in UK CFOs' opinions on valuations, risks and financing and has become a benchmark for gauging financial attitudes of major corporate users of capital.
The Deloitte CFO Survey has been widely quoted in the media and is firmly established with policymakers. The Bank of England has cited the CFO Survey several times in its publications such as the quarterly Inflation Report and the monthly Trends in Lending report. The findings have also been quoted in the minutes of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meetings.
The Deloitte CFO Survey: 2013 Q3 resultsDeloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
A new mood of confidence pervades the third quarter CFO Survey. Chief Financial Officers see fewer risks in the global economy and greater opportunities for expansion.
Key findings:
- CFOs' perceptions of external macro and financial risk have hit three-year lows.
- The financing environment for corporates has improved still further. Cost of credit is at its lowest and availability at its highest since the survey began in 2007.
- 54% of CFOs say now is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheet, a six-year high.
- Austerity is out and expansion is coming in. Cost control and cash conservation are moving out of favour. Expansion is, once again, the top priority for corporates.
About the Deloitte CFO Survey:
The Deloitte CFO Survey, launched in 2007, is a quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major UK companies. Over 300 CFOs, mainly from FTSE 350 companies, have joined the CFO Survey panel. The Survey captures shifts in UK CFOs' opinions on valuations, risks and financing and has become a benchmark for gauging financial attitudes of major corporate users of capital.
The Deloitte CFO Survey has been widely quoted in the media and is firmly established with policymakers. The Bank of England has cited the CFO Survey several times in its publications such as the quarterly Inflation Report and the monthly Trends in Lending report. The findings have also been quoted in the minutes of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meetings.
The CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as an authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major UK corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
To read the full report, visit www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
The Deloitte CFO Survey: 2013 Q1 resultsDeloitte UK
The Deloitte CFO Survey, launched in 2007, is a quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major UK companies. Over 300 CFOs, mainly from FTSE 350 companies, have joined the CFO Survey panel. The Survey captures shifts in UK CFOs' opinions on valuations, risks and financing and has become a benchmark for gauging financial attitudes of major corporate users of capital.
The Deloitte CFO Survey: 2015 Q4 A cautious start to 2016Deloitte UK
The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
The Deloitte CFO Survey: 2014 Q1 resultsDeloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
Record risk appetite: Greater confidence about growth in the UK and euro area is supporting corporate investment.
This is the 27th quarterly survey of chief financial officers and group finance directors of major companies in the UK.
The Q1 2014 survey took place between 6th and 24th March.
126 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 27 FTSE 100 and 45 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 80 UK-listed companies surveyed is £570 billion, or approximately 26% of the UK quoted equity market.
The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
The Deloitte CFO Survey: 2013 Q4 resultsDeloitte UK
Find out more at http://www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
With low levels of uncertainty, improved access to finance and greater confidence in the Bank of England's policies, Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) are gearing up for expansion, investment and hiring in 2014.
The Deloitte CFO Survey, launched in 2007, is a quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major UK companies. Over 300 CFOs, mainly from FTSE 350 companies, have joined the CFO Survey panel. The Survey captures shifts in UK CFOs' opinions on valuations, risks and financing and has become a benchmark for gauging financial attitudes of major corporate users of capital.
The Deloitte CFO Survey has been widely quoted in the media and is firmly established with policymakers. The Bank of England has cited the CFO Survey several times in its publications such as the quarterly Inflation Report and the monthly Trends in Lending report. The findings have also been quoted in the minutes of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meetings.
Ey profit warning stress index q3 2018 7Robert Hussey
For those looking at a UK listing – this is a very insightful piece of research based on EY’s Profits Warning Stress Index. In Q3 2018, the market has experienced the highest average share price fall since the financial crisis. 206 earnings downgrades in the first nine months of the year. The Consumer sectors are dominating these earnings downgrades but with domestic and global uncertainty, we are seeing signs of contraction spreading wider a field (industrial and finance sectors). If one combines this with the number of recent IPO’s either being pulled or priced at the lower of the range, a cautionary picture in certainly painted.
Duff & Phelps' Capital Markets Insights - Spring 2018 report states that leveraging costs and structures showed signs of increasing volatility in the first quarter of 2018, as markets reacted to rising economic growth, inflation concerns and trade tensions. Read the report for more detail.
Capital Markets Insights – Late Fall 2018Duff & Phelps
What’s been an increase in growth and acquisition-related financings and recapitalization transactions? Read the fall edition of Duff&Phelps’ Capital Markets Insights.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
Las economías de la eurozona recuperan su velocidad de crecimiento. La mejora iniciada este año alcanzó un +0,4% en el primer cuatrimestre, y actualmente ha superado el crecimiento de USA y UK en el mismo periodo.
Etude PwC Global Economy Watch (juin 2015)PwC France
Dans leur dernière étude « Global Economy Watch », les économistes du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC ont analysé les performances économiques des cinq premiers pays d’Afrique du Nord – Egypte, Algérie, Maroc, Soudan et Tunisie, près de cinq ans après les débuts du « Printemps arabe » qui a entraîné de grands bouleversements dans toute la région. Cette étude révèle les défis et les opportunités qui attendent les entreprises et les dirigeants politiques en Afrique du Nord.
Welcome to a milestone edition of the Deloitte Football Money League (‘DFML’). Every year, DFML profiles the financial performance of the highest revenue generating clubs in world football. This year’s edition is a landmark publication for more reasons than one, as it marks 25 years of DFML and covers the first season (2020/21) to be impacted by COVID-19 from start to finish.
Welcome to a milestone edition of the Deloitte Football Money League (‘DFML’). Every year, DFML profiles the financial performance of the highest revenue generating clubs in world football. This year’s edition is a landmark publication for more reasons than one, as it marks 25 years of DFML and covers the first season (2020/21) to be impacted by COVID-19 from start to finish.
We estimate that those clubs in this year’s Money League will have missed out on over €2 billion of revenue across the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. This is primarily driven by matchday revenue, due to the absence of fans, but also rebates to broadcasters and some commercial impacts as well as the lost potential to continue their previous growth trajectory over the period.
We estimate that those clubs in this year’s Money League will have missed out on over €2 billion of revenue across the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. This is primarily driven by matchday revenue, due to the absence of fans, but also rebates to broadcasters and some commercial impacts as well as the lost potential to continue their previous growth trajectory over the period.
We estimate that those clubs in this year’s Money League will have missed out on over €2 billion of revenue across the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. This is primarily driven by matchday revenue, due to the absence of fans, but also rebates to broadcasters and some commercial impacts as well as the lost potential to continue their previous growth trajectory over the period.
The 2018/19 season saw English and European football reach new record levels of revenue generation. This snapshot of the peak before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic also includes some warning signs for the challenges to come.
Generating record revenue of €841m, Barcelona reach the top of the Money League for the first time, becoming the first club to break the €800m barrier. Overall, the 20 highest earning football clubs in the world generated a record €9.3bn (2018: €8.3bn) of combined revenue in 2018/19, an increase of 11% on the previous year.
The 28th edition of our report reflects the continued revenue growth of the Premier League and Football League has contributed to overall revenues in the European football market reaching record levels in the 2017/18 football season.
1. Global activity easing
2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area
3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
Belfast has sustained momentum and a high level of ambition through 2018, with construction schemes across the city centre. This is in spite of potentially disruptive macro forces in play including Brexit, and the lack of an executive at Stormont.
Birmingham continues to hit new heights as it drives forward into an era of re-development and re-purposing. Yet again, the city has record-levels of construction with both developer and investor confidence high as preparations for HS2 gets underway and the 2022 Commonwealth Games draws ever closer.
Establishing itself as one of Europe’s fastest growing cities, Manchester continues to lead the way in catering for an increasing metropolitan population. Entire new neighbourhoods are in development redefining the parameters of the city centre as it pushes outwards and upwards driving record levels of construction.
Leeds has broken multiple construction records in 2018 as the city builds for the future, with new highs achieved in the Health and Education and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation sectors (PBSA).
Real Madrid returns to first place in the Money League after generating record revenue of more than €750m in 2017/18, following unprecedented success on the pitch as the club secured a third consecutive Champions League title. FC Barcelona finishes second to complete a Spanish one-two at the top, whilst Manchester United slip to third.
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
1. Corporate risk appetite and sentiment have faded in the
face of weakness in emerging economies and global
equity markets. Chief Financial Officers’ perceptions of
external financial and economic uncertainty have seen the
sharpest rise in five years.
Moves in financial markets and risk appetite among CFOs
are closely correlated. Both react to similar factors and
financial markets directly influence corporates, for instance
through the availability and pricing of capital. Equities sold
off in the third quarter, with emerging markets seeing the
largest outflow of capital since the financial crisis. With
UK equities down 18% in the last three months there has
been a parallel loss of risk appetite among the UK’s major
corporates.
The proportion of CFOs who think now is a good time
to take risk has dropped to 46%, down from 59% in the
second quarter and a peak of 72% a year ago. Rising risk
aversion is feeding into a more defensive stance on the
part of major corporates, with a greater focus on cost
reduction and rather less on investment.
Despite the recent more emollient tone by Western central
banks, CFOs see the prospect of tighter monetary policy
in the UK and the US as the greatest risk facing their
businesses.
From the Bank of England’s point of view this may be
the worst of both worlds – a corporate sector which is
worried both about the prospect of higher interest rates
and slower global growth.
Q3 2015
Uncertainty mounts
The Deloitte CFO Survey
October 2015
2. The Deloitte CFO Survey
Chart 1. Uncertainty
% of CFOs who rate the level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business
as above normal, high or very high
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
95%
15
Q3
15
Q2
15
Q1
14
Q4
14
Q3
14
Q2
14
Q1
13
Q4
13
Q3
13
Q2
13
Q1
12
Q4
12
Q3
12
Q2
12
Q1
11
Q4
11
Q3
11
Q2
11
Q1
10
Q4
10
Q3
3. The slowdown in emerging markets now ranks joint
second, together with concerns about euro area growth,
on CFOs’ list of worries. Against a backdrop of flagging
business confidence the recent moves by the Bank
of England and the US Federal Reserve to signal that
interest rates are likely to stay lower for longer look well
judged.
The firms on the CFO Survey panel are large and have
heavy overseas exposure, with more than half of their
revenues coming from outside the UK. While external
risks are centre stage, CFOs are positive on prospects for
the UK economy.
The Deloitte CFO Survey
CFOs rate uncertainty and emerging market
weakness as constraints on investment but
see the state of the UK economy as being a
significant support for investment.
The UK’s recovery from recession has been
punctuated by a series of external shocks, of
which weakness in emerging markets is the
latest. A strong pound and weaker demand in
emerging markets dim prospects of an export-led
recovery – and put greater weight
on domestic demand to drive UK growth.
4. Authors
Ian Stewart
Chief Economist
020 7007 9386
istewart@deloitte.co.uk
Debapratim De
Senior Economic Analyst
020 7303 0888
dde@deloitte.co.uk
Alex Cole
Economic Analyst
020 7007 2947
alecole@deloitte.co.uk
Contacts
Ian Stewart
Chief Economist
020 7007 9386
istewart@deloitte.co.uk
Richard Muschamp
CFO Programme Leader
020 7007 0724
rmuschamp@deloitte.co.uk
For current and past copies of the
survey, historical data and coverage of
the survey in the media and elsewhere,
please visit:
www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
The Deloitte CFO Survey
5. Corporate risk appetite tends to follow moves in equity markets.
The third quarter saw a rise in investor risk aversion as they moved away from riskier assets and into safer
government bonds.
This has fed through to a fall in risk appetite among CFOs. 46% of them say now is a good time to take greater risk
onto balance sheets, down from 59% in the previous quarter.
Risk appetite down
Chart 2. Corpor ate and investor risk appetite
% of CFOs who think this is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets
and the ratio of the price of UK equities to that of UK government bonds
20
25
30
35
40
45
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
15
Q3
15
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
07
Q3
Equities vs Bonds (RHS) Risk appetite (LHS)
6. The fall in corporate risk appetite has also coincided with a rise in financial market volatility.
The VIX Index – a measure of volatility in equity markets, sometimes described as the ‘fear gauge’ – has risen sharply
during the third quarter.
Chart 3. Financial market volatility
VIX Index – A measure of equity market volatility
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
2015201420132012201120102009200820072006
Risk appetite down
7. The global recovery from the financial crisis has been uneven. Since 2008, growth rates in emerging markets, and
particularly China, have far exceeded those of Western economies.
However, the outlook for growth in Europe, the UK and the US is now looking more positive, as their economies
accelerate, while Chinese growth slows in the coming years.
Risk appetite down
Chart 4. Growth prospects
Annual average GDP growth rates for 2008-14 and forecasts for 2015-16 (% YoY)
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
ChinaUnited StatesUnited KingdomEuro area
2008–14 2015–16
-0.1
1.6
0.5
2.5
3.1
8.8
6.5
1.1
8. Consumer confidence and business sentiment, which tend to move in the same direction, have diverged lately.
The large UK corporates on our survey panel are more exposed than consumers to weakness in emerging markets.
While consumer confidence is near a 15-year high in the UK, reflecting low inflation and rising wages, CFOs are far
less optimistic about the financial prospects of their companies.
Rate rise biggest risk to business
Chart 5. Business and confidence
Net % of CFOs who are more optimistic about financial prospects for their company now than
three months ago
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
15
Q3
15
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
07
Q3
MoreoptimisticLessoptimistic
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Business confidence (LHS)
Consumer
confidence (RHS)
9. Despite the recent more emollient
tone by Western central banks, CFOs
see the prospect of tighter monetary
policy in the UK and the US as the
greatest risk facing their businesses.
Concerns over weakness and
volatility in emerging markets have
also risen sharply in the third quarter,
and CFOs now rate it as the second
biggest risk to their businesses.
By contrast, concerns over the UK
economy such as weak productivity,
planned cuts in public spending, and
the risk of asset price bubbles are at
the bottom of CFOs’ worry list.
Chart 6. Risk to business posed by the following factors
Weighted average ratings on a scale of 0-100 where 0 stands for
no risk and 100 stands for the highest possible risk
30 35 40 45 50
Poor productivity/weak
competitiveness in the UK economy
Planned cuts in UK public expenditure
in this parliament
A bubble in housing and/or other real
and financial assets and the
risk of higher inflation
The UK referendum on
membership of the EU
Weak demand in the UK
Deflation and economic weakness in
the euro area, and the possibility
of a renewed euro crisis
Weakness and/or volatility in emerging
markets and rising geopolitical risks
in Middle East/Ukraine
The prospect of higher interest rates
and a general tightening of monetary
conditions in the UK and US
2015 Q3 2015 Q2
48
49
43
47
49
44
45
42
42
41
34
35
40
38
47
Rate rise biggest risk to business
10. Introducing new products and
services or expanding into new
markets – an expansionary strategy –
remains the top priority for CFOs.
However, they have sharpened their
focus on defensive strategies such
as reducing costs and increasing
cash flow.
They are also placing less emphasis
on expanding by acquisition or
increasing capital expenditure.
Sharper focus on defensive strategies
2015 Q22015 Q3
22%
19%
23%
22%
10%
10%
9%
10%
15%
8%
34%
34%
31%
34%
41%
39%
Chart 7. Corporate priorities in the next 12 months
% of CFOs who rated each of the following as a strong priority for
their business in the next 12 months
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Raising dividends or share buybacks
Disposing of assets
Reducing leverage
Increasing capital expenditure
Expanding by acquisition
Reducing costs
Increasing cash flow
Introducing new products/services or
expanding into new markets
11. CFOs have scaled down their expectations for growth in hiring, capital expenditure and discretionary spending by
UK corporates.
Sharper focus on defensive strategies
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q1
2014Q4
2014Q3
2014Q2
2014Q1
2013Q4
2013Q3
2013Q2
2013Q1
2012Q4
2012Q3
2012Q2
2012Q1
2011Q4
2011Q3
2011Q2
2011Q1
2010Q4
2010Q3
Hiring
Capital
expenditure
Discretionary spending
IncreaseDecrease
Chart 8. Outlook for capital expenditure, hiring and discretionary spending
Net % of CFOs who expect UK corporates’ capital expenditure, hiring and discretionary spending to
increase over the next 12 months
12. Chart 9 compares the effect of nine key
factors on corporate investment plans
between Q3 2014 and now. The further
the coloured lines in the chart are from the
centre, the more the factor acts to support
investment. Readings below five indicate that
the factor acts as a depressant on investment.
Uncertainty continues to be the greatest
constraint on investment plans.
Fiscal consolidation in the UK and weakness
in emerging markets are the next biggest
depressants. CFOs are particularly concerned
about the slowdown in China. In response to
another question, 60% of them said that it
will have modest to significant negative effects
on their business over the next 12 months.
Easy access to external funding, the state
of the UK economy and rising demand for
businesses’ products and services remain the
main drivers of investment.
Chart 9. Factors affecting corporate investment plans
CFOs’ assessment of the effect of each of the following factors
on their investment plans:
On a 10-point scale where 0 implies the most negative effect
and 10 the most positive
2014 Q3 – Effect over last 12 months
2015 Q3 – Effect over last 12 months
Uncertainty about the economic
and financial environment
Fiscal consolidation in the UK
(tax rises, cuts in public
spending)
Actual or expected
levels of economic
activity/GDP growth
in the euro area
Actual or expected
levels of economic
activity/GDP growth
in emerging markets
Actual or expected levels of economic
activity/GDP growth in the rest of the
world (including the US, Japan and
Asia-Pacific)
Morepositive
Availability of
internal finance
Cost and availability
of external finance
Actual or
expected levels
of economic
activity/GDP
growth
in the UK
Secular or long-term
growth for products
or services
2
0
1
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
3
Uncertainty weighing on investment plans
13. Financing conditions benign
The large corporates on our survey panel continue to have easy access to credit. The cost of credit remains close to
its lowest level in eight years while credit availability is just shy of an eight-year high.
CFOs also rate debt finance – bank borrowing and bond issuance – as the most attractive source of external funding.
Chart 10. Cost and availability of credit
Net % of CFOs reporting credit is costly and credit is easily available
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
15
Q3
15
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
07
Q3
CreditiscostlyCreditischeap
Creditisavailable
Cost of credit (LHS)
Cost of credit (LHS)
Availability of credit (RHS)
Availability of credit (RHS)
Creditishardtoget
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
14. Financing conditions benign
A majority of CFOs expect inflation to hover around the Bank of England’s 2.0% target in two years’ time.
However, a growing proportion anticipate considerably lower inflation, with almost 40% expecting it to be between
0 and 1.5%.
Chart 11. Inflation expectations
% of CFOs who expect consumer price inflation in the UK to lie between the following ranges
in two years’ time
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Above 2.5%1.6%-2.5%0-1.5%
2015 Q2 2015 Q3
39%
31%
64%
5% 5%
56%
15. Financing conditions benign
Markets have responded to recent communications from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England by
pushing back their expectations for the timing of rate rises.
Over the third quarter, futures traders significantly lowered their interest rate expectations for the end of next year.
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Sep-14 Nov-14 July-15 Sep-15Jan-14 Mar-15 May-15
Chart 12. Interest rate expectations
Market expectations for 90-day sterling LIBOR in December 2016 (%)
16. The macroeconomic backdrop to the Deloitte CFO
Survey Q3 2015
The UK and US economies saw steady groth in the third
quarter, with consumers benefiting from low inflation
and rising wages. However, a number of industrial
indicators pointed to a softening of activity in the West,
with slowing growth in key emerging markets acting
as a drag on output. Slowing activity in the Chinese
economy caused particular concern, resulting in a sell-
off in Chinese equities. Weakness in China and falling
commodity prices dented confidence in other key
emerging markets, whose currencies fell sharply against
the US dollar.
The Institute of International Finance estimates that
emerging markets saw more than $40bn of capital
outflows between July and September, the largest
reversal since the height of the global financial
crisis. With investors increasingly unsettled, global
stock markets lost more than $10tn in value, their
worst quarterly performance since 2011. Yields on
developed market bonds rose. Against this backdrop,
and with inflation remaining low, central banks opted
to keep monetary policy accommodative. The US
Federal Reserve opted to keep rates on hold, the Bank
of England moved to dampen expectations of an
imminent rate rise in the UK and the ECB opened the
door for further quantitative easing in the euro area.
CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
21. Two-chart summary of key survey messages
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
15
Q3
15
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
07
Q3
Business and consumer confidence
Net % of CFOs who are more optimistic about
financial prospects for their company now than three
months ago and the GfK consumer confidence index
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
15
Q3
15
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
07
Q3
MoreoptimisticLessoptimistic
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Business confidence (LHS)
Consumer
confidence (RHS)
Corporate and investor risk appetite
% of CFOs who think this is a good time to take
greater risk onto their balance sheets and the
ratio of the price of UK equities to that of UK
government bonds
20
25
30
35
40
45
Equities vs Bonds (RHS) Risk appetite (LHS)