Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
1. Global slowdown underway
2. Impact of trade tensions greater and more prolonged than expected
3. Exports, manufacturing and investment worst hit
4. Central banks have responded with rate cuts and QE
5. Monetary easing has supported equities, recovering after a sell off in August
6. Consumers remain key driver of activity
7. Slow growth to continue, risks tilted to the downside
The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
1. Global activity continues to ease
2. Significant slowdown in euro area
3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
4. Rate expectations pushed back as central banks make dovish statements
5. Equities sold off in May with investors switching to bonds
6. 2020 UK growth heavily dependent on Brexit settlement
7. Risks to global growth tilted to the downside
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
1. Global slowdown underway
2. Impact of trade tensions greater and more prolonged than expected
3. Exports, manufacturing and investment worst hit
4. Central banks have responded with rate cuts and QE
5. Monetary easing has supported equities, recovering after a sell off in August
6. Consumers remain key driver of activity
7. Slow growth to continue, risks tilted to the downside
The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
1. Global activity continues to ease
2. Significant slowdown in euro area
3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
4. Rate expectations pushed back as central banks make dovish statements
5. Equities sold off in May with investors switching to bonds
6. 2020 UK growth heavily dependent on Brexit settlement
7. Risks to global growth tilted to the downside
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
The Great Recession Is Over: What’s Next, and What Does It Mean for Learning?Human Capital Media
The good news is that the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is over and economic recovery is under way. The bad news is that business cycles are still very much alive, meaning the current recovery will eventually be followed by another recession. After sharing the current economic outlook, Dave Vance will talk about the history and nature of business cycles and when and why we might expect the next recession. He will conclude with the implications for business and for learning and development, including suggestions for short- and long-term planning.
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
The Great Recession Is Over: What’s Next, and What Does It Mean for Learning?Human Capital Media
The good news is that the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is over and economic recovery is under way. The bad news is that business cycles are still very much alive, meaning the current recovery will eventually be followed by another recession. After sharing the current economic outlook, Dave Vance will talk about the history and nature of business cycles and when and why we might expect the next recession. He will conclude with the implications for business and for learning and development, including suggestions for short- and long-term planning.
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
http://bit.ly/GEWaout2014
Les dirigeants sont de plus en plus conscients du potentiel inexploité de l'Afrique sub-saharienne. La population de l'Afrique subsaharienne est devrait croître plus rapidement que dans toutes les autres régions du monde. En conséquence, en 2040, le Continent africain devrait avoir la plus grande force de travail du monde et pourrait avoir une croissance économique plus rapide que n'importe quelle autre région.
Longer-term forecastings - David Turner, Economics Department, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by David Turner, Economics Department, OECD, at the 11th Meeting of OECD PBO & IFIs held in Lisbon, Portugal, on 4-5 February 2019
Fiscal Policy (Austerity) in the UK Economytutor2u
In this short revision video I try to explain some of the key arguments for and against the policy of fiscal austerity being carried out by the conservative government in an attempt to cut the budget deficit and control / reduce the scale of government debt as a share of GDP. It is essentially a debate between fiscal conservatives and Keynesian economists!
Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 March 18Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The Development Agreement for the Daher Mall Project outlines a lease-to-own arrangement where the building will be transferred back to the Government of Saint Lucia at the end of the 15-year lease.
Richard Frederick has deliberately omitted mentioning this agreement, which is referenced multiple times in the Land Transfer Agreement and the Deed of Sale.
Read the entire agreement: https://uwpstlucia.com/the-development-agreement-for.../
Statement by The Honourable Allen M Chastanet Prime Minister of Saint Lucia and Minister of for Finance, Economic Growth, Job Creation, External Affairs and Public Service to the General Debate of the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly.
This act was stealthily enacted by the Saint Lucia Labour Party Government in June of 2013 and would have given ownership of the Islands main International to a Foreign Entity.
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
2. Order of Presentation
International Economic Situation
Impact on St Lucia’s Economy
Highlights of Government Fiscal
Position
Growth in Salaries and Wages
Issues for Consideration
Recommendations
2
3. Global economic outlook has worsen…
The recent deepening of the European banking and
sovereign debt crisis has given rise to renewed
uncertainty of the pace of the global economic
recovery.
Growth has slowed in some of the major drivers of
the global economy such as China, India and Brazil.
The recovery in the US and other advanced
economies appears to be stalling.
There are renewed fears that the global economy is
headed for a recession.
3
4. 4
2010 2011 2012 2013
World Output 5.3 3.9 3.5 3.9
Advanced Economies 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.9
USA 3.0 1.7 2.0 2.3
Euro Area 1.9 1.5 -0.3 0.7
Germany 3.6 3.1 1.0 1.4
France 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.8
Italy 1.8 0.4 -1.9 -0.3
Spain -0.1 0.7 -1.5 -0.6
Japan 4.4 -0.7 2.4 1.5
UK 2.1 0.7 0.2 1.4
Canada 3.2 2.4 2.1 2.2
Emerging &
Developing Countries 7.5 6.2 5.6 5.9
China 10.4 9.2 8.0 8.5
India 10.8 7.1 6.1 6.5
LAC 6.2 4.5 3.4 4.2
Brazil 7.5 2.7 2.5 4.6
Mexico 5.6 3.9 3.9 3.6
Source: IMF WEO (July 2012)
World Economic Projections - Percentage Change
5. … and Saint Lucia’s economy could be
negatively impacted
Saint Lucia’s economy is very open and closely
integrated with advanced economies, US, Canada and
Europe.
As these economies continue to slowdown, we could
see decline in tourist arrivals, FDI inflows, lower
demand for our exports, reduced grants.
Major productive sectors of our economy are likely to
come under intense pressure this year reflecting the
global slowdown.
5
6. Economic growth is likely to be subdued
The stimulus package announced in the 2012/13 budget will
have a positive impact on growth and employment but
downside risks are mounting.
Impact on growth and employment depends on the pace of
implementation and sustainability of programs.
Impact is likely to be realized towards the latter part of 2012
given the need to raise financing and put measures in place.
Recent experiences with debt restructuring around the
region (Antigua, St Kitts and now Belize) may not bode well
for our fund raising drive.
While growth of 2.5 percent was projected for 2012, we may
fall short of target given mounting downside risks.
6
7. Fiscal position is likely to deteriorate
sharply
Recurrent deficit in the 2012/13 budget – borrowing to
finance recurrent expenditure.
More than half of the $40.8 million recurrent deficit was
realized in just the first quarter (Apr – Jun 2012).
Based on current trend and given mounting expenditure
pressures, the recurrent deficit is likely to exceed the
budget target.
Revenue performance was below projections for April to
June 2012, falling short of target by $23 million.
The likely increase in recurrent and capital expenditure
coupled with lower revenue collection are expected to
result in an increase in the overall fiscal deficit to about 9
percent of GDP.
7
8. 8
2007/08r 2008/09r 2009/10r 2010/11r 2011/12pre
TOTAL REVENUE AND GRANTS 753.10 829.03 826.79 873.91 921.63
Current Revenue 741.23 804.87 759.62 787.18 828.76
Tax Revenue 687.74 737.74 700.76 736.34 757.39
Non Tax Revenue 53.49 67.13 58.86 50.85 71.37
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 811.34 856.82 925.08 1,041.04 1,183.25
Capital Expenditure 230.70 208.17 241.31 298.57 402.60
Current Expenditure 580.64 648.65 683.77 742.47 780.65
Salaries & Wages 266.97 301.07 316.15 342.30 350.31
Current Balance 160.59 156.22 75.85 44.71 48.11
Primary Balance 26.27 60.68 -11.54 -65.38 -150.45
Overall Balance -58.24 -27.79 -98.29 -167.13 -261.62
Salaries and Wages Account for Single Largest Share of Increaes in Current Expenditure
Increases in Current Expenditure ($ Mil.) 25.77 68.01 35.12 58.70 38.18
Increases in Salaries and Wages ($ Mil.) 11.32 34.10 15.08 26.15 8.01
S & W as Percentage Share of Increases 43.9% 50.1% 42.9% 44.5% 21.0% 40.5%
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT
SUMMARY OF FISCAL OPERATIONS [Fiscal Year]
ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION
(EC$ Millions)
11. Salaries and wages are growing steadily…
The wage bill has increased by 65.5 percent over the last 10
years growing at an average rate of 6.5 percent a year, one
of the highest rates of growth in the ECCU.
The wage bill is the largest component of current
expenditure averaging 46 percent.
Salaries and wages account for average of 41 percent of
current revenue.
Averaging 9.8 percent of GDP over the last 5 years.
Increases in wage bill over the years have been the single
largest contributor to increases in current expenditure.
Increases in salaries and wages result in permanent
increase in expenditure.
11
13. 13
Comparative Public Service Salaries in Selected OECS Countries
St Lucia
St Vincent
&
Grenadines Grenada Dominica
Accountant II 59,533 50,136 51,060 40,611
Customs Officer II 59,533 32,532 NA 31,849
Economist I 52,080 48,711 44,256 40,611
Secondary School Principal 63,259 57,948 50,808 53,387
Nurse I 40,446 NA NA 36,230
Qualified Teacher 36,992 NA 26,148 NA
Police Constable I 25,176 20,220 15,484 NA
Police Corporal 36,992 27,228 24,504 NA
14. 14
Salaries and Wages Scenarios (2010/11 to 2012/13)
Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr.3
Rate of
Increase Total Costs
Scenario 1 0% 0% 3.0% 3.0% $10.0 Mil.
Scenario 2 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% $33.4 Mil.
Scenario 3 4.0% 4.0% 8.0% 16.0% $93.4 Mil.
15. 15
Inflation Over-compensation %
(%) Growth Inflation
2004/05 4.57 2.44 3.00 (1.57) 0.56
2005/06 0.75 4.42 3.00 2.25 (1.42)
2006/07 7.24 2.32 4.00 (3.24) 1.68
Cumulative 2004/05 to 2006/07 12.56 9.18 10.00 (2.56) 0.82
2007/08 3.11 4.07 3.00 (0.11) (1.07)
2008/09 3.96 4.83 4.00 0.04 (0.83)
2009/10 0.38 (0.26) 7.50 7.12 7.76
Cumulative 2007/08 to 2009/10 7.45 8.64 14.50 7.05 5.86
Cumulative Total last 6 years 20.01 17.82 24.50 4.49 6.68
Cumulative Average last 6 years 3.34 2.97 4.08 0.75 1.11
2010/11 0.70 3.04
2011/12 1.40 3.47
Real GDP
Growth
Salary
Increases (%)
16. Issues to consider
Government’s main economic priority is to grow the
economy and create jobs.
The main impetus for economic growth and job creation
will come from the public sector.
Given absence of fiscal space, Govt needs to remain focus
on achieving its economic priority.
The issue then becomes, should we be awarding salary
increases to those in jobs or creating new ones?
No space in the budget for both.
It is not prudent to borrow to pay for salary increases in
the context of a recurrent budget deficit.
16
17. Issues to consider
Our fiscal problems will not be solved with the
introduction of VAT if there is no expenditure restraint.
Any revenue generated in excess of the VAT estimates
should be used in funding Govt job creating strategy and
improving social safety nets.
Awarding salary increases will result in a permanent rise in
current expenditure which will further compound our
fiscal problems.
This could have major repercussions for our sovereign
credit rating and the cost of borrowing.
Funding agencies and investors in Govt securities pay
attention to the views of the rating agency and the IMF
Salary increases should be in line with increases in worker
productivity if our economy is to be competitive. 17
18. Recommendations
Given the fiscal challenges and downside risks to the
economy, unions should consider foregoing salary
and wage increases for this triennium.
It should be recalled that civil servants were over
compensated for the 2007/08 to 2009/10 period using
the criteria of economic growth and inflation.
Further justification can also be provided on the
basis of the generous stimulus package announced in
the budget that should assist civil servants.
Consideration should be given to starting and
completing negotiations early for the 2013/14 to
2015/16 period.
18