The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
Oz Metals 20150712
1. Oz Metals
37th
Edition – 12th
July 2015
DISCLAIMER
This report is provided in good faith from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Terra Studio Pty Ltd directors and employees do not accept
liability for the results of any action taken on the basis of the information provided or for any errors or omissions contained therein. Readers should
seek investment advice from their professional advisors before acting upon information contained herein.
Page 1 / 3
TerraStudio
CHINA PANIC CRUSHES METAL & STOCK PRICES
Base Metals & Precious Metals Fundamentals
Source: COMEX, LME, Metal Prices, RBA, SHFE, Terra Studio
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
CIFPriceofChineseImports
Bauxite
$A/t
US$/t
$2.0
$2.3
$2.6
$2.9
$3.2
$3.5
$3.8
$4.1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15ThousandTonnes
Copper
SHFE COMEX
LME US$/lb
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
Gold
A$/oz
US$/oz
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
0
100
200
300
400
500
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
$/lb
ThousandTonnes
Nickel
LME US$ A$
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
ThousandTonnes
Tin
Inventory
US$
A$
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
$/lb
ThousandTonnes
Zinc
SHFE (kt) LME (kt)
US$/lb A$/lb
2. Oz Metals
37th
Edition – 12th
July 2015
DISCLAIMER
This report is provided in good faith from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Terra Studio Pty Ltd directors and employees do not accept
liability for the results of any action taken on the basis of the information provided or for any errors or omissions contained therein. Readers should
seek investment advice from their professional advisors before acting upon information contained herein.
Page 2 / 3
TerraStudio
Markets & Majors
Thomson Reuters - Copper prices on the London Metal
Exchange have this week touched a new six-year low of
$5,240/t ($2.38/lb). In many ways the latest copper
collapse resembles that of January, when the LME three-
month delivery price slumped to $5,339.50 ($2.42/lb).
Then the London market was rocked by Chinese funds
and this week has been a repeat performance, albeit an
amplified one, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange
playing the lead and the LME reduced to a supporting role.
SNL - Chinese commodities hedge fund Shanghai Chaos
Investment, which was in the news back in January for its
overnight "bear raid" on the copper market, has sold off
its massive short position in the metal.
Thomson Reuters - Buyers of copper and aluminium in
China reduced spot purchases in the domestic and
international markets this week after the country's equity
market rout reduced the liquidity for the buying, people in
the industry said. Merchants and factories that buy the
metals for manufacturing of semi-finished products such
as copper rods and aluminium profiles appear to be
holding less cash than they need for spot purchases, the
people said.
SNL - Chile's government cut its forecast for copper prices
this year, pointing to increased uncertainty in global
markets, including the impact of the Greek debt crisis on
the Eurozone. State copper commission Cochilco said it
now expects the red metal to average US$2.77/lb in 2015,
down from a previous projection of US$2.85/lb. The
agency said in a report that copper prices will remain
subdued next year, averaging US$2.70/lb.
Thomson Reuters - Large copper smelters in China have
lowered their minimum treatment charges for spot copper
concentrate imports in the third quarter by 10% as global
supply falls, sources at a state-owned smelter and a global
trading house said.
Thomson Reuters - Supply of high quality copper
concentrate shrank more than expected in the first half of
this year due to output delays in top miner Chile,
squeezing the pipeline for metal producers and likely
supporting prices later in 2015, traders said. Production
from two of four mines in Chile that churn out clean,
standard concentrate was stalled in the first half as the
country was hit by floods, while the world's top mine,
Escondida, has not tendered surplus concentrate for
months, the traders and mining sources said.
Thomson Reuters - Nickel producers in Indonesia may
only build half of the 12 new smelters anticipated this year
and some may not commence production immediately due
to low global prices, a senior industry official said.
Indonesia, which had been China's top nickel ore supplier,
brought in export restrictions last year aimed at forcing
mining firms to build smelting and processing facilities so
the country could earn more from raw ores and
concentrates.
Thomson Reuters - Expectations of a tighter tin market
over the next couple of months due to export rule changes
in Indonesia and falling stocks have created a premium for
metal for nearby delivery. The backwardation between
cash tin and the three-month benchmark jumped to near
$44 a tonne in official trading on Monday. That compares
with a $1 discount on July 1 and a $36 discount on June
16.
Thai Rath reported that a government panel agreed to
prepare development plans for the mining of gold, potash,
quartz, iron and coal in Thailand. Some mining related
laws and regulations will also be revised and amended.
Reuters - Zambia plans to cut power supplies to mines by
up to 30% as early as next week due to power shortages.
Specialty Metals
Thomson Reuters - The fate of debt-ridden U.S. rare earth
miner Molycorp rests on China's efforts to crack down on
networks that smuggled as much as 40,000 tonnes of the
vital technology metals out of the country last year, driving
down global prices. Greenwood, Colorado-based
Molycorp is the sole U.S. domestic supplier of rare earths
used in everything from smartphones to military jet
engines and hybrid vehicles. In 2011, it relaunched its
huge Mountain Pass mine in California expecting prices to
stay high after China, which dominates world supply,
restricted exports. Last month it filed for bankruptcy
protection as operating losses mounted.
Cobre Montana exercised, 15 months ahead of schedule,
a 25-year option over a practical processing technology to
recover lithium from mica group minerals developed by
Strategic Metallurgy Pty Ltd.
Funding, Mergers & Acquisitions
Bloomberg - Several companies including BHP Billiton,
Teck Resources, Hudbay Minerals and China
Molybdenum have submitted their final bids for Barrick
Gold Corp.'s Zaldivar copper mine in Chile, according to
3. Oz Metals
37th
Edition – 12th
July 2015
DISCLAIMER
This report is provided in good faith from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Terra Studio Pty Ltd directors and employees do not accept
liability for the results of any action taken on the basis of the information provided or for any errors or omissions contained therein. Readers should
seek investment advice from their professional advisors before acting upon information contained herein.
Page 3 / 3
TerraStudio
people with knowledge of the matter. Barrick is expected
to make a final decision by early next month.
Thomson Reuters - China Molybdenum is poised to make
an offer for an overseas mining project [Zaldivar?] costing
up to $2.15 billion, the latest push by a Chinese enterprise
to acquire resource assets beyond its borders.
Cupric Canyon Capital, a private equity firm backed by a
unit of Barclays, will spend $200 million to bring its copper-
silver mine in Botswana to production, the company said.
Construction of the mine, which will be built by Cupric's
Botswana unit Khoemacau, is set to start in 2016 with the
first copper expected to be shipped to the markets in 2018.
Metallica Minerals has executed an agreement to sell four
granted mining leases covering the Ootann limestone
tenements and associated quarrying equipment in
Queensland, to a private limestone and lime group for
A$500,000. The ASX-listed company has received a
A$25,000 non-refundable deposit. Completion of the deal
and payment of the remaining A$475,000, will occur once
indicative approval for the transfer of the mining titles is
received.
Neometals has completed a previously announced
transaction with Metals X to lease lithium mining rights
over a portion of the Hampton Area Location 53 property
and to purchase an adjoining mining lease and
infrastructure. The transaction's completion will allow
Neometals to explore and develop extensions of lithium
deposits, located on the northern boundary of Neometals'
Mount Marion lithium project in Western Australia.
Northern Mining sold its Georges Reward gold project on
tenement E25/268 in Western Australia to Metals X for
A$4.5 million in cash. The company owns 79% of the
tenement under a joint venture with Balagundi Gold Pty
Ltd, which owns the remaining 21%. The project has an
inferred resource of 22,500 oz of gold.
For further information, please contact: J-François Bertincourt, +61 406 998 779, jf@terrastudio.biz
Source: Company March Quarterly Reports. AISC reported in A$ have been converted to US$ using an exchange rate of 0.75
Cadia-Ridgeway
Cowal
Telfer
GrannySmith
Tanami
Gosowong
Agnew/Lawlers
Boddington
StIves
LihirIsland
SuperPit
Darlot
HiddenValley
$0
$2,000
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
AISC(US$/oz)
Production (oz)
March 2015 Cost Curve for ASX-listed Gold Producers
(+ Australian operations from Gold Majors)
First Quartile
Second Quartile
Third Quartile
FourthQuartile