Indigenous weather forecasting techniques utilize observations of plants, animals, the sky, and natural phenomena to predict upcoming weather conditions. Some examples given include: if bamboo flowers early or abundantly, heavy rains are predicted; frogs croaking or crickets bringing soil out of holes indicates imminent rain; clouds moving in certain directions may bring or stop rain. Traditional forecasters in India and Sri Lanka have developed extensive knowledge of biological indicators and environmental cues to determine weather trends. These methods are passed down over generations and sometimes recorded in historical texts.

1. Indigenous Knowledge Systems
lesson 9 - Traditional practices for, weather forecasting, plant
nutrient supplementing, pest and disease control and indigenous
agricultural machines and tools (2hrs)
• Course Code: MS 5208 (02:30/00)
• Saturday 3.30 pm – 5.30 pm (ZOOM)
PART 1
• P.B. Dharmasena
• 0777 - 613234, 0717 – 613234
• dharmasenapb@ymail.com , dharmasenapb@gmail.com
• Links to publications:
https://independent.academia.edu/PunchiBandageDharmasena
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Punchi_Bandage_Dharmasena/cont
ributions
http://www.slideshare.net/DharmasenaPb
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_PFqwl0OqsrxH1wTm_jZeg

2. Indigenous Knowledge Systems
2. Fundamental features of Sri Lankan Agriculture; climate, Soil, Genetic
resources, agro biodiversity (2 hrs)
3. History and the culture of Sri Lankan agriculture sector development (1 hr)
4. Green revolution and its impact on Sri Lankan traditional agricultural
system (biodiversity deterioration, inorganic substances for pest and disease
controlling, development of hybrid varieties etc.) (1hr)
5. Indigenous soil management practices (2hrs)
6. Indigenous Irrigation systems (cascade system, water harvesting concepts)
(2hrs)
9. Traditional practices for, weather forecasting, plant nutrient
supplementing, pest and disease control and indigenous agricultural
machines and tools (2hrs)
13. Cultural dimensions of Agricultural rituals in Sri Lanka (2 hrs)
14. Climate change and Indigenous Agricultural knowledge in Sri Lanka(2
hrs)
List of lectures by P.B. Dharmasena

3. What is weather forecasting?
• Weather forecasting is
the prediction of what
the atmosphere will be
like in a particular place
by using technology and
scientific knowledge to
make weather
observations.
• In other words, it's a
way of predicting things
like cloud cover, rain,
snow, wind speed, and
temperature before they
happen.

4. Six types of Tools for weather forecasting
1. Radar to measure the location and
speed of clouds,
2. Satellite data to monitor Earth from
space, collecting observational data our
scientists analyze
3. Radiosondes to collect primary source
of upper-air data by sending balloons
4. Automated surface-observing
systems to monitor constantly weather
conditions on the Earth’s surface.
5. Supercomputors - Observational data
collected by doppler radar,
radiosondes, weather satellites, etc. are
fed into computerized numerical
forecast models.
6. AWIPS (Advanced Weather
Information Processing System) is a
computer processing system that
combines data from all the previous
tools into a graphical interface that our
forecasters use to analyze data and
prepare and issue forecasts, watches,
warnings.

5. However ………………
• However, to this day, humans with good experience can still do a
better job at predicting the weather than computer models alone
because humans are often involved in picking the most appropriate
model for a situation.
• The main ways we can forecast the weather include looking at
current weather conditions, tracking the motion of air and clouds in
the sky, finding previous weather patterns that resemble current
ones, examining changes in air pressure, and running computer
models.

6. Weather Forecasting
• Biological weather
forecasting indicators –
plants, animal
behaviour, birds,
insects, human
ailments
• Atmospheric weather
forecasting indicators –
temperature, rainfall,
air movement,
visibility, clouds, stars,
moon

7. Agro-met Advisory: September to November
(SON) during 2020/21 Maha season
• The Department of Meteorology has forecasted that there is
a higher chance of receiving Above Normal rainfall over
most parts of the island during the month of September. The
same forecast further reveals that given the prevailing ocean-
atmospheric conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, it is
more likely to experience Below Normal in almost all Agro-
ecological regions of the country during the Second Inter
Monsoon (SIM) season (i.e., October & November) of the
2020/21 Maha season.

8. • If the tamarind tree buds early, maha rains will come early
• If the wood apple tree blooms more, maha rains will be high
• If the Sept. rains are low, maha season rains will be high
• If the Sept. rains are high, maha season rains will be poor
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
September rainfall (mm)
Rainfall relationship between September and remaining maha
season (Oct. – Feb. ) Mahailluppallama (1905 – 2003)
Oct.
–
Feb.
Rainfall
(mm)

9. Flood forecasting

10. 1. People can hear unusual
thundering sounds. It seems
to be that the sounds come
from underground. The sound
makes children frightened.
2. The surrounding shows
strange dark look. It is darker
than the darkness one can see
just before a usual rain spell.
3. Dogs bark for a long time
without having a rest. They
bark as a group or from
different locations in the
village.
4. People observe that white
ants move upward along trees
as a track.
5. The surrounding becomes
colder than that they feel in
normal rainy days.
Flood forecasting

11. 6. People observe some kinds of
insects such as grasshopper,
dragonfly, winged termites etc.
move out of their places and fly
around.
7. Snakes attempt to creep into
houses. People make special
attention about snakes when
observed.
8. Ant tracks can be observed
moving into houses.
9. Clouds appear becoming darker
than usual.
10. People can observe lightning,
but it does not follow any rains.
Flood forecasting

12. Drought forecasting

13. 1. Leaves of many trees show wilting
unusually.
2. When they receive relatively low rainfall
in a maha season, they expect a long
drought until next maha season. Dry winds
blowing across the village aggravates the
drought condition.
3. Tanks go dry early. When they observe fast
drying of tanks they get prepared to face a
drought.
4. Dark clouds are hardy observed and the
wind speed increases. Clouds do not move
and hot condition prevails. Wind carries
dust and makes surrounding warm.
5. Before a drought people will notify that
the morning is cold and it becomes warm
gradually. People use to seek for tree
shades when they feel uncomfortable due
to hot condition during day time. The body
is dehydrated due to dry wing rather than
from hot sun.
Drought forecasting

14. 5. People hear unusual
shouts of lizards and
hawks.
6. Poisonous ants (black
ants, brown ants etc.)
come out of the ground.
7. Nonpoisonous small kinds
of ants move along
ground surface with white
eggs.
8. Elephants roam around
the village.
9. Monkeys’ shout cannot be
heard.
Drought forecasting

15. Rains come soon
• Cocks eat sand
• Swallow (wahi
lihiniya) flies at low
levels
• Rainbow appearance
• Bud of Daluk plant
becomes round
• Flowering midella
Weather forecasting

16. Rains come soon
• Termite in coconut
spathe
• Lapwing (Kirala)
roaming in paddy fields
• Crow baths mud water
• Western sky is red
• Night misting
Weather forecasting

17. If the bird (lapwing) lays eggs close to dead storage, maha rains will be
poor
If the bird lays eggs at the upstream end of the tank bed, maha rains will
be high
Weather forecasting

18. • If the weaver bird makes the nest at high level the tank
water level will be high
• If the weaver bird makes the nest at low level the tank
water level will be low

19. Maha Oya in 2013

20. Vavuniya in 2014

21. Knowledge from the environment
If fish is jumping over turbid water in drying tanks
If frogs and hawks are roaring during drought
If ants are struggling to collect grains
See first rains are coming during the drought

22. Climate forecasting using plants
“Bokalavæl”
Derris scandens (E: Forest beanstalk / S:
Kalavæl or Bokalavæl )
Three flowering sessions can be seen during
one flowering season in Forest beanstalk.
Just a few days after the third flowering session
it will rain and flowers will fall
down due to the rain. But in the first two
sessions flowers will fall due to the wind. (EL).
“Bōmbu”
Symplocos cochinchinensis ( S: Bōmbu )
It will rain shortly after the flowering of
Bōmbu tree. (OV).
TRADITIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION METHODS
USING PLANTS AND ANIMALS

23. TRADITIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION METHODS
USING PLANTS AND ANIMALS
• Lime – Citrus aurantofolia
It will rain shortly after the new
flush of lime trees
• Kebella – Aporosa
cardiosperma
It will rain shortly after fruiting
• Bakmee - Nauclea orientalis
It will rain shortly after fruiting.
However, the fruiting can be
seen 2-3 years cycle

24. TRADITIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION METHODS
USING PLANTS AND ANIMALS
• Wood apple – If the wood
apple harvest is high. Heavy
rain is expected in coming
season
• Katupila - A flowery red
spike thorn indicates heavy
rains in the coming season
• Madan – Just after the
flowering and seedling of
java plum, heavy rain is
expected.

25. TRADITIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION METHODS
USING PLANTS AND ANIMALS
Ge kurulla (Passer domesticus) –
If house sparrows are bathing in
sand in fron of house, there will be
rain in the afternoon
Vehi lena (Hirundo rustica) – If
they fly closer to the ground level
(paddy or tank), rain will come in
the afternoon

26. TRADITIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION METHODS
USING PLANTS AND ANIMALS
Balla (Canis familiaris) – If the dog
sleeps upside down it will rain within 3-4
days. If the dog sleeps outside the house ,
the rain will come from that direction. If
the dog sleeps with crossed legs, it will
rain definitely. If the dog digs a hole in
the ground and tries to sleep inside it is
also a sign of rain.
Mee haraka (Bubalus arnee) – If the
water buffalo emit frequent sounds like
‘Ork Ork’ while holding its head up, the
rain will come soon.
Ela haraka (Bos indicus) – If the cattle
runs holding its tail high during the
afternoon, it is a sign of upcoming rain

27. TRADITIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION METHODS
USING PLANTS AND ANIMALS
Atikiththa (Euphlyctis
cyanophlycti) – If you gear
frogs are screaming during a
drought is a sign of rain
Geyi gemba (Duttaphrynus
melanostictus) – The
frequent call of toads inside
the house during the day
time is a sign if rain. It will
rain within 10 days

28. Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India
• Traditional meteorologists use
methods and principles evolved
by eminent astronomers and
astrologers:
• Varahmihir (700-800 AD),
• Bhadri (1000-1200 AD),
• Poet Ghagh (1200-1300 AD)
• Unnad Joshi (1350-1400 AD).
• Many of the principles were
contained in cultural and
religious books or passed on
from generation to generation by
word of mouth.

29. • the tree Amaltas or
golden shower (Cassia
fistula) is a unique
indicator of rain. It bears
bunches of golden
yellow flowers in
abundance about 45 days
before the onset of the
monsoon.
• This is also mentioned in
"Brahad Samhita"
written by Varahmihar
(circa 8th century)
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

30. • When ‘sparrow bath in
dust’ or ‘many bees
enter the hive and none
leave’, one could
expect rain in a couple
of days
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

31. • Similarly, ‘crow crying during
night and owl crying during
the daytime’, one can
anticipate drought.
• Clouds drifting south – north
with accompanying strong
wind during the period mid
July to mid September then
water levels are said to rise
greatly in a short time.
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

32. • Bio-indicators
• Bamboo Partridge
(Bambusicola fytchii) If
male bamboo partridges
roar frequently during
dry season in the
morning after sun rise,
rain is expected in the
immediate future.
Similarly, when it rains
in the morning, the
roaring of the bamboo
partridge at this time
indicates that the rain
will soon stop for that
day in that location
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

33. • Bio-indicators
• If a cricket brings new
soil particles out of its
hole in the dry season it
is thought that rain is
coming soon. If the same
activity occurs during the
rainy season, a heavy
rain is expected during
the season
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

34. • Bio-indicators
• When winged termites
come out of the soil in a
group after a rainfall
occurs, it is believed that
rain will not come again
for some time. If there
was no rain in the
previous day or week but
the insects are coming
out of the soil, rain is
expected to come soon.
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

35. • Bio-indicators
• When there a number of
corn field ants moving
along a path carrying
there food items with
them, a heavy rain is
expected on the same
day, or within one or two
days
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

36. • Bio-indicators
• If the frogs croak in a
water body in the
afternoon until sun set,
the rain will be coming
soon
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

37. • Bio-indicators
• If local domestic chickens
search for food even during
the rain, it is commonly
thought that the rain will
last for the whole day. But
if the birds stop searching
for food when it is raining
and take shelter (in the
morning or afternoon), the
rain is expected to cease
soon and to be minimal
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

38. • Bio-indicators
• When the clouds are
thick and black in
colour, rearranged
perpendicular to the
orbit of the sun in
the morning, it is
said that rain is
approaching
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

39. • Bio-indicators
• The person
suffering from
sciatica can forecast
the rain three or
four days ahead
through the
temperature of his
body part (foot, leg
ear or forehead)
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

40. • Bio-indicators
• If the brown bug
species are found in
the forest during dry
periods, it is
expected that
rainfall and flooding
are expected to
begin.
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

41. • Bio-indicators
• If dried chilli
becomes moist
except during the
rainy season, it
indicates high
humidity and
imminent rain
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

42. • Bio-indicators
• If peach or plum
flowers grow from the
basal region to the
terminal of the tree in
flowering season, it is
predicted that there
will be a good rain
and higher crop
production than in
other years. This
indicator has ben
accurate until today.
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

43. • Bio-indicators
• When harsh climatic
conditions (drought)
prevail during the dry
season, some local elders
go to the river to catch a
particular fish species
called ‘nghawak’. They
would take it to a hilltop,
open its mouth, put small
quantity of salt in it then
turn it so that its head is
pointing toward the East.
This is a ritual to call
rains.
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

44. • Bio-indicators
• During dry season
villagers turn over a
stone or a boarder
stone near a river or a
hillside in an open
space or clearing
within the tree canopy.
If the soil under the
rock or under the
surface is moist, it is
thought that rains are
approaching
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

45. • Bio-indicators
• If water bubbles form
at any place on the
surface of a flowing or
stagnant water body,
particularly during a
morning rain shower, it
is thought that the rain
will last for whole day.
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India

46. • Bio-indicators
• If a reddish colour cloud
is seen at sunset on
western horizon, rain is
predicted to come within
2 – 4 days. If there is
thick cloud toward the
South or North, the rain
will be more on that side
within the region. If the
sky is full of reddish
coloured clouds
appearing after a long
rainfall, it is a sign that
the rain will not come
again in that particular
season.
Indigenous Weather Forecasting in India