موقع ملزمتي - خريطة منهج اللغة الإنجليزية للصف الخامس الإبتدائى ترم ثانىملزمتي
This document outlines a 12-unit English curriculum covering listening, speaking, reading, writing, phonics and grammar skills. Each unit focuses on specific language functions and vocabulary, assessments, and teaching strategies. Learning outcomes are assessed through unit tests with instructions and answer keys provided. Teaching methods include role-playing, games, self-learning, stories, pair work and chants. Materials needed are student books, CDs, notebooks and word cards. The curriculum aims to develop English communication skills through functional language practice and phonics instruction.
Problem Set 6 Part I Multiple-choice questions 1. Wh.docxwkyra78
Problem Set 6
Part I Multiple-choice questions
1. Which of the following in NOT true about a country’s current account deficit?
a. By definition, an economy running a current account deficit will
experience an overall capital inflow.
b. A current account deficit can mean that a country is “living beyond its
means.”
c. A current account deficit can mean that a country is an “oasis of
prosperity,” attracting investment from around the globe.
d. A current account deficit means that the country is currently lending more
to other countries than it borrows from other countries.
2. What causes the weakness of the dollar? The two factors most often cited are
those mentioned by Fed Chairman Greenspan -- the twin deficits (CNN/Money,
November 19, 2004). What do the “twin deficits” refer to?
a. The trade deficit and the current account deficit.
b. The current account deficit and the budget deficit.
c. The budget deficit and social security deficit.
d. The trade deficit and the financial account deficit.
3. Which of the following is NOT true about the current account balance?
a. It is the net export component in GDP (X).
b. X = Y – E (E = C + I + G)
c. X = ST – I = IF
d. X = SP – I – (T – G)
4. The following five transactions are all entries to be made on the U.S. balance of
payments. For balance-of-payments purposes, four of the five are fundamentally
similar. Which one is different?
a. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York sells dollars in the foreign
exchange market.
b. An American tourist on vacation spends francs in Paris.
c. A South American country sells coffee in New York.
d. A British shipping firm is paid to carry an American export commodity
abroad.
e. An American computer company receives an order for software programs
from Germany.
5. According to the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates:
a. exchange rates tend to move with changes in relative price level of
different countries.
b. applies better to the long run than the short run.
c. applies better to the short run than the long run.
d. A and B.
e. A and C.
6. If the market exchange rate between Swiss francs and U.S. dollars were to change
from Sfr. 4 to the dollar to Sfr. 3 to the dollar, then the franc’s price must have:
a. risen from 25 cents to 33 cents, and the dollar has appreciated relative to
the franc.
b. fallen from 33 cents to 25 cents, and the dollar has depreciated relative to
the franc.
c. risen from 25 cents to 33 cents, and the dollar has, been devalued relative
to the franc.
d. risen from 25 cents to 33 cents, and the dollar has depreciated relative to
the franc.
e. fallen from 33 cents to 25 cents, and the dollar has appreciated relative to
the franc.
7. Suppose that the exports of Country A to Country B have increased substantially
and that both A and B operate on the gold standard. According to David Hume’s
gold-flow mechan ...
This document provides an overview of establishing an investment program and personal financial planning. It discusses assessing current financial conditions through a personal balance sheet and income statement. It also covers establishing financial and investment goals, factors like return, risk and taxes, and providing liquidity. Specific investment goals are quantified. Historical data on incomes, taxes and home costs from 1960-2002 are presented. The power of compound interest is discussed through examples. Risks and red flags for various industries are also outlined. Steps for managing personal finances like establishing goals, saving, insurance, taxes and investing are presented.
Macroeconomics 201 Answer all 25 multiple choice questions..docxinfantsuk
Macroeconomics 201
Answer all 25 multiple choice questions.
1. Which is not a function of money?
a) unit of account; b) medium of exchange; c) means of measure; d) store of value
2. Since the 1980s, it has generally been the view that the money supply:
a) is completely controlled by the central bank;
b) cannot be controlled by the central bank;
c) is completely controlled by the Treasury;
d) cannot be controlled by the Treasury
3) Which of the following is not one of the three kinds of demand for money in Keynes?
a) speculative;
b) precautionary; c) administrative;
d) transactions
4) Which of the following is not one of the ways the Fed can use to try to affect the money supply?
a) change the discount rate;
b) change the fed funds rate;
c) change the reserve requirement ratio;
d) open market operations
5) Expansionary policy is used to:
a) try to fight inflation;
b) try to decrease output, income, and employment;
c) try to increase output, income, and employment;
d) try to increase deflation
6) There is a tension between these two characteristics of banks in a fractional reserve banking system:
a) private profit seeking enterprises and susceptible to runs;
b) private profit seeking enterprises and engage in money creation;
c) engage in money creation and susceptible to runs;
d) engage in runs and susceptible to money creation
7) The liquidity trap is:
a) the horizontal portion of the money demand function;
b) when interest rates are so low people do not think they can go any lower;
c) when interest rates are insensitive to changes in the Money supply;
d) all of the above
8) The limits to KEMP are:
a) I may be insensitive to changes in i, i may insensitive to changes in Ms, Y may be insensitive to changes in I;
b) I may be insensitive to changes in Y, I may be insensitive to changes in i, i may be insensitive to changes in Ms;
c) I may be insensitive to changes in i, i may be insensitive to changes in Ms, Y may be insensitive to changes in i;
d) I may be insensitive to changes in i; Ms may be insensitive to changes in i, Y may be insensitive to changes in I
9) The limits to KAIMP are:
a) only works for demand-pull inflation, Fed may overshoot its mark and cause a recession;
b) only works for cost-push inflation, Fed may overshoot its mark and cause a recession; c) only works for demand-push inflation, Fed may overshoot its mark and cause a recession;
d) only works for cost-pull inflation, Fed may undershoot its mark and cause a recession
10) In the endogenous view of the money supply:
a) the Ms curve is vertical;
b) the Ms curve is horizontal;
c) the Md curve is vertical;
d) the Md curve is horizontal
11) Deficit Hawks view deficits as causing:
a) high investment rates; b) deflation; c) high interest rates; d) all of the above
12) Deficit Doves believe that:
a) deficits cause high interest rates;
b) high interest rates cause bigger deficits;
c) deficits are always good;
d) all of the above
13) In the functi ...
Some of the questions have a image involved. I have attached those .docxboadverna
Some of the questions have a image involved. I have attached those images with the quesiton number as the file name.
1. Which statement is true?
a. Today more workers in the U.S. are members of labor unions than any time in our history
b. Today labor unions are weaker than any time in the last 100 years
c. No major labor union has called a strike since the 1940’s
d. Labor unions are relatively strong in the public (government) sector.
2. Exclusive union strategy involves
a. Increasing the demand for the final product, thereby increasing the demand for labor
b. Restricting the supply of union labor
c. Setting job standards and entry qualifications for members
d. Organizing all workers and bargaining for a wage
e. Negotiating only after a strike has been called
3. An example of an exclusive union would be
a. The Internal Brotherhood of the Teamsters
b. The Communications Workers of America
c. The American Medical Association
4. In which one of these years was labor union membership the highest?
a. 1940
b. 1960
c. 1980
d. 1990
5. Which of the following laws stated that attempts to monopolize conspiracies in restraint of trade, and conspiracies to monopolize were illegal?
a. The Federal Trade Commission Act
b. The Clayton Act
c. The Sherman Antitrust Act
d. All of the Choices
e. None of the Choices
6. Until the passage of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, the Civil Aeronautics Board controlled all of the following Except?
a. Fares
b. Assigned routes
c. Profits
d. Entry into the industry
7. The Clayton Act prohibited
A. interlocking directories
B. all forms of monopoly
C. foreign control of US corporations
D. False and deceptive advertising
8. Which statement is true?
a. Microsoft is subject to American antitrust laws but not those of Europe, Asia, or elsewhere
b. Microsoft has never been involved in anti -trust suit
c. The European Commission fined Microsoft over 600 billion for its anticompetitive behavior
d. Microsoft has always gone out of its way to be helpful to its competitors
9. A monopolist operated at the minimum point of her ATC curve
a. Only in the short run
b. Only in the long run
c. In both the short and long run
d. In neither the short nor the long run
10. Which of the following is characteristic of a monopoly?
a. The absence of political power
b. Close substitutes products
c. The ability to make an economic profit in the long run
d. Operating at peak efficiency
11. The firm will charge a price of (image involved)
a. 8
b. 9.65
c. 10.
d. 12.
e. 16
12. Statement I Only natural monopolies are legal in the U.S.
Statement II: Large firms generally operate at peak efficiency
A. Statement I is true and statement II is false
B. Statement II is true and statement I is false
C. Both statements are true
D. Both statements are false
13. The nation’s largest bank has assets over
a. 2.5 billion
b. 25 billion
c. 250 billion
d. 800 billion
e. 1.8 trillion
14. Which statement is true?
A. Our money supply is fixed by law and can be raised b.
Question 11. Answering the following case study requires reading.docxmakdul
Question 1
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
What type of testamentary trust has Walter created for Judy in his will?
a.
A charitable remainder unitrust
b.
A charitable remainder annuity trust
c.
A grantor retained annuity trust
d.
A charitable lead unitrust
2 points
Question 2
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
The Dumonts would like to help the Nature Conservancy this year by contributing some of Walter's company stock. Walter would also like to maintain Judy's life style by providing her with income for life. In addition, Walter would like to minimize taxes and transfer costs to accomplish these objectives. Given these objectives and constraints, which of the following lifetime gifts would be most appropriate?
a.
A bargain sale of stock to the Nature Conservancy.
b.
A gift of stock to a charitable pooled income fund for the Nature Conservancy.
c.
A gift of stock to a charitable remainder unitrust trust for the Nature Conservancy.
d.
A gift of stock to a charitable lead trust for the Nature Conservancy.
2 points
Question 3
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
Judy's will establishes a trust that distributes all income from the motel to Lee annually. Judy was concerned that this income could be subject to Lee's creditors, so she included a spendthrift clause in the trust. All of the following statements about trusts with spendthrift provisions are correct, except:
a.
A beneficiary may not assign, pledge or promise to give distributions from the trust to others.
b.
A beneficiary should not be given a general power of appointment over trust corpus.
c.
Spendthrift provisions apply only to self-settled trusts.
d.
Trustees can make distributions to beneficiaries solely on a discretionary basis.
2 points
Question 4
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
Assume that Walter dies today. What statement concerning the universal life insurance policy he owns on Judy's life is correct?
a.
The cash value will be included in his gross estate.
b.
If Walter had transferred ownership of the policy to Lee four months ago, the policy would not be included in Walter's gross estate.
c.
The policy will not be included in Walter's probate estate.
d.
The full death benefit amount will be included in Walter's estate.
2 points
Question 5
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Lindsays
Which of the following statements regarding property held as tenancy in common, the form under which Jim and Todd own their fishing boat, are correct?
a.
There is no right of survivorship between Jim and Todd.
b.
All of the property is included in the probate estate of the first co-owner to die.
c.
The entire v ...
The document appears to be a quiz for a unit test containing 60 multiple choice questions related to economics topics like labor markets, demand and supply, costs of production, firm behavior, and national income. The questions cover concepts like wages, productivity, disposable income, savings rates, supply and demand shifts, costs curves, break even analysis, and returns to scale. The quiz is intended for students named Shaju and George.
1.The tax multiplier associated with a $10B reduction in t.docxelliotkimberlee
The document discusses several economic concepts including tax and spending multipliers, tax freedom day, liquidity of assets, monetary and fiscal policy tools, and exchange rate systems. It provides information on multipliers, how a progressive tax system affects tax freedom day, the non-liquid nature of housing, monetary policy tools like open market operations and their effects, and how a flexible exchange rate may respond to changes in demand for currency.
موقع ملزمتي - خريطة منهج اللغة الإنجليزية للصف الخامس الإبتدائى ترم ثانىملزمتي
This document outlines a 12-unit English curriculum covering listening, speaking, reading, writing, phonics and grammar skills. Each unit focuses on specific language functions and vocabulary, assessments, and teaching strategies. Learning outcomes are assessed through unit tests with instructions and answer keys provided. Teaching methods include role-playing, games, self-learning, stories, pair work and chants. Materials needed are student books, CDs, notebooks and word cards. The curriculum aims to develop English communication skills through functional language practice and phonics instruction.
Problem Set 6 Part I Multiple-choice questions 1. Wh.docxwkyra78
Problem Set 6
Part I Multiple-choice questions
1. Which of the following in NOT true about a country’s current account deficit?
a. By definition, an economy running a current account deficit will
experience an overall capital inflow.
b. A current account deficit can mean that a country is “living beyond its
means.”
c. A current account deficit can mean that a country is an “oasis of
prosperity,” attracting investment from around the globe.
d. A current account deficit means that the country is currently lending more
to other countries than it borrows from other countries.
2. What causes the weakness of the dollar? The two factors most often cited are
those mentioned by Fed Chairman Greenspan -- the twin deficits (CNN/Money,
November 19, 2004). What do the “twin deficits” refer to?
a. The trade deficit and the current account deficit.
b. The current account deficit and the budget deficit.
c. The budget deficit and social security deficit.
d. The trade deficit and the financial account deficit.
3. Which of the following is NOT true about the current account balance?
a. It is the net export component in GDP (X).
b. X = Y – E (E = C + I + G)
c. X = ST – I = IF
d. X = SP – I – (T – G)
4. The following five transactions are all entries to be made on the U.S. balance of
payments. For balance-of-payments purposes, four of the five are fundamentally
similar. Which one is different?
a. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York sells dollars in the foreign
exchange market.
b. An American tourist on vacation spends francs in Paris.
c. A South American country sells coffee in New York.
d. A British shipping firm is paid to carry an American export commodity
abroad.
e. An American computer company receives an order for software programs
from Germany.
5. According to the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates:
a. exchange rates tend to move with changes in relative price level of
different countries.
b. applies better to the long run than the short run.
c. applies better to the short run than the long run.
d. A and B.
e. A and C.
6. If the market exchange rate between Swiss francs and U.S. dollars were to change
from Sfr. 4 to the dollar to Sfr. 3 to the dollar, then the franc’s price must have:
a. risen from 25 cents to 33 cents, and the dollar has appreciated relative to
the franc.
b. fallen from 33 cents to 25 cents, and the dollar has depreciated relative to
the franc.
c. risen from 25 cents to 33 cents, and the dollar has, been devalued relative
to the franc.
d. risen from 25 cents to 33 cents, and the dollar has depreciated relative to
the franc.
e. fallen from 33 cents to 25 cents, and the dollar has appreciated relative to
the franc.
7. Suppose that the exports of Country A to Country B have increased substantially
and that both A and B operate on the gold standard. According to David Hume’s
gold-flow mechan ...
This document provides an overview of establishing an investment program and personal financial planning. It discusses assessing current financial conditions through a personal balance sheet and income statement. It also covers establishing financial and investment goals, factors like return, risk and taxes, and providing liquidity. Specific investment goals are quantified. Historical data on incomes, taxes and home costs from 1960-2002 are presented. The power of compound interest is discussed through examples. Risks and red flags for various industries are also outlined. Steps for managing personal finances like establishing goals, saving, insurance, taxes and investing are presented.
Macroeconomics 201 Answer all 25 multiple choice questions..docxinfantsuk
Macroeconomics 201
Answer all 25 multiple choice questions.
1. Which is not a function of money?
a) unit of account; b) medium of exchange; c) means of measure; d) store of value
2. Since the 1980s, it has generally been the view that the money supply:
a) is completely controlled by the central bank;
b) cannot be controlled by the central bank;
c) is completely controlled by the Treasury;
d) cannot be controlled by the Treasury
3) Which of the following is not one of the three kinds of demand for money in Keynes?
a) speculative;
b) precautionary; c) administrative;
d) transactions
4) Which of the following is not one of the ways the Fed can use to try to affect the money supply?
a) change the discount rate;
b) change the fed funds rate;
c) change the reserve requirement ratio;
d) open market operations
5) Expansionary policy is used to:
a) try to fight inflation;
b) try to decrease output, income, and employment;
c) try to increase output, income, and employment;
d) try to increase deflation
6) There is a tension between these two characteristics of banks in a fractional reserve banking system:
a) private profit seeking enterprises and susceptible to runs;
b) private profit seeking enterprises and engage in money creation;
c) engage in money creation and susceptible to runs;
d) engage in runs and susceptible to money creation
7) The liquidity trap is:
a) the horizontal portion of the money demand function;
b) when interest rates are so low people do not think they can go any lower;
c) when interest rates are insensitive to changes in the Money supply;
d) all of the above
8) The limits to KEMP are:
a) I may be insensitive to changes in i, i may insensitive to changes in Ms, Y may be insensitive to changes in I;
b) I may be insensitive to changes in Y, I may be insensitive to changes in i, i may be insensitive to changes in Ms;
c) I may be insensitive to changes in i, i may be insensitive to changes in Ms, Y may be insensitive to changes in i;
d) I may be insensitive to changes in i; Ms may be insensitive to changes in i, Y may be insensitive to changes in I
9) The limits to KAIMP are:
a) only works for demand-pull inflation, Fed may overshoot its mark and cause a recession;
b) only works for cost-push inflation, Fed may overshoot its mark and cause a recession; c) only works for demand-push inflation, Fed may overshoot its mark and cause a recession;
d) only works for cost-pull inflation, Fed may undershoot its mark and cause a recession
10) In the endogenous view of the money supply:
a) the Ms curve is vertical;
b) the Ms curve is horizontal;
c) the Md curve is vertical;
d) the Md curve is horizontal
11) Deficit Hawks view deficits as causing:
a) high investment rates; b) deflation; c) high interest rates; d) all of the above
12) Deficit Doves believe that:
a) deficits cause high interest rates;
b) high interest rates cause bigger deficits;
c) deficits are always good;
d) all of the above
13) In the functi ...
Some of the questions have a image involved. I have attached those .docxboadverna
Some of the questions have a image involved. I have attached those images with the quesiton number as the file name.
1. Which statement is true?
a. Today more workers in the U.S. are members of labor unions than any time in our history
b. Today labor unions are weaker than any time in the last 100 years
c. No major labor union has called a strike since the 1940’s
d. Labor unions are relatively strong in the public (government) sector.
2. Exclusive union strategy involves
a. Increasing the demand for the final product, thereby increasing the demand for labor
b. Restricting the supply of union labor
c. Setting job standards and entry qualifications for members
d. Organizing all workers and bargaining for a wage
e. Negotiating only after a strike has been called
3. An example of an exclusive union would be
a. The Internal Brotherhood of the Teamsters
b. The Communications Workers of America
c. The American Medical Association
4. In which one of these years was labor union membership the highest?
a. 1940
b. 1960
c. 1980
d. 1990
5. Which of the following laws stated that attempts to monopolize conspiracies in restraint of trade, and conspiracies to monopolize were illegal?
a. The Federal Trade Commission Act
b. The Clayton Act
c. The Sherman Antitrust Act
d. All of the Choices
e. None of the Choices
6. Until the passage of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, the Civil Aeronautics Board controlled all of the following Except?
a. Fares
b. Assigned routes
c. Profits
d. Entry into the industry
7. The Clayton Act prohibited
A. interlocking directories
B. all forms of monopoly
C. foreign control of US corporations
D. False and deceptive advertising
8. Which statement is true?
a. Microsoft is subject to American antitrust laws but not those of Europe, Asia, or elsewhere
b. Microsoft has never been involved in anti -trust suit
c. The European Commission fined Microsoft over 600 billion for its anticompetitive behavior
d. Microsoft has always gone out of its way to be helpful to its competitors
9. A monopolist operated at the minimum point of her ATC curve
a. Only in the short run
b. Only in the long run
c. In both the short and long run
d. In neither the short nor the long run
10. Which of the following is characteristic of a monopoly?
a. The absence of political power
b. Close substitutes products
c. The ability to make an economic profit in the long run
d. Operating at peak efficiency
11. The firm will charge a price of (image involved)
a. 8
b. 9.65
c. 10.
d. 12.
e. 16
12. Statement I Only natural monopolies are legal in the U.S.
Statement II: Large firms generally operate at peak efficiency
A. Statement I is true and statement II is false
B. Statement II is true and statement I is false
C. Both statements are true
D. Both statements are false
13. The nation’s largest bank has assets over
a. 2.5 billion
b. 25 billion
c. 250 billion
d. 800 billion
e. 1.8 trillion
14. Which statement is true?
A. Our money supply is fixed by law and can be raised b.
Question 11. Answering the following case study requires reading.docxmakdul
Question 1
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
What type of testamentary trust has Walter created for Judy in his will?
a.
A charitable remainder unitrust
b.
A charitable remainder annuity trust
c.
A grantor retained annuity trust
d.
A charitable lead unitrust
2 points
Question 2
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
The Dumonts would like to help the Nature Conservancy this year by contributing some of Walter's company stock. Walter would also like to maintain Judy's life style by providing her with income for life. In addition, Walter would like to minimize taxes and transfer costs to accomplish these objectives. Given these objectives and constraints, which of the following lifetime gifts would be most appropriate?
a.
A bargain sale of stock to the Nature Conservancy.
b.
A gift of stock to a charitable pooled income fund for the Nature Conservancy.
c.
A gift of stock to a charitable remainder unitrust trust for the Nature Conservancy.
d.
A gift of stock to a charitable lead trust for the Nature Conservancy.
2 points
Question 3
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
Judy's will establishes a trust that distributes all income from the motel to Lee annually. Judy was concerned that this income could be subject to Lee's creditors, so she included a spendthrift clause in the trust. All of the following statements about trusts with spendthrift provisions are correct, except:
a.
A beneficiary may not assign, pledge or promise to give distributions from the trust to others.
b.
A beneficiary should not be given a general power of appointment over trust corpus.
c.
Spendthrift provisions apply only to self-settled trusts.
d.
Trustees can make distributions to beneficiaries solely on a discretionary basis.
2 points
Question 4
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Dumonts
Assume that Walter dies today. What statement concerning the universal life insurance policy he owns on Judy's life is correct?
a.
The cash value will be included in his gross estate.
b.
If Walter had transferred ownership of the policy to Lee four months ago, the policy would not be included in Walter's gross estate.
c.
The policy will not be included in Walter's probate estate.
d.
The full death benefit amount will be included in Walter's estate.
2 points
Question 5
1. Answering the following case study requires reading the information in this link:
Case Study: The Lindsays
Which of the following statements regarding property held as tenancy in common, the form under which Jim and Todd own their fishing boat, are correct?
a.
There is no right of survivorship between Jim and Todd.
b.
All of the property is included in the probate estate of the first co-owner to die.
c.
The entire v ...
The document appears to be a quiz for a unit test containing 60 multiple choice questions related to economics topics like labor markets, demand and supply, costs of production, firm behavior, and national income. The questions cover concepts like wages, productivity, disposable income, savings rates, supply and demand shifts, costs curves, break even analysis, and returns to scale. The quiz is intended for students named Shaju and George.
1.The tax multiplier associated with a $10B reduction in t.docxelliotkimberlee
The document discusses several economic concepts including tax and spending multipliers, tax freedom day, liquidity of assets, monetary and fiscal policy tools, and exchange rate systems. It provides information on multipliers, how a progressive tax system affects tax freedom day, the non-liquid nature of housing, monetary policy tools like open market operations and their effects, and how a flexible exchange rate may respond to changes in demand for currency.
6-1MacroeconomicsInstructor Jen Dinsmore HansonHomework As.docxssuser774ad41
6-1
Macroeconomics
Instructor: Jen Dinsmore Hanson
Homework Assignment
Chapter 6
Multiple Choice Questions
1. A business firm with limited liability would be a A. proprietorship. B. partnership. C. corporation.
2. Which one of these would not constitute investment? A. Someone buys 100 shares of Exxon-Mobil B. Exxon-Mobil purchases 20 new oil rigs C. General Motors builds a new assembly plant D. Macy's remodels its stores
3. To build up our capital we need to A. save more and consume more. B. save more and consume less. C. save less and consume less. D. save less and consume more.
4. The expected rate of profit is found by A. multiplying expected profits by money invested. B. dividing expected profits by money invested. C. dividing money invested by expected profits. D. none of these.
5. Which statement is true? A. Stockholders and bondholders are both owners of a corporation. B. Neither stockholders nor bondholders are owners of a corporation. C. Only stockholders are owners of a corporation. D. Only bondholders are owners of a corporation.
6. Which statement is false? A. Most corporations are small firms. B. Most firms in the United States are proprietorships. C. Preferred stockholders rarely have a voice in running corporations. D. None of these statements is false.
6-2
7. The "reserve army of the unemployed" was a term coined by A. Adam Smith B. John Maynard Keynes C. Thorstein Veblen D. Karl Marx E. Milton Friedman
8. Investment may be thought of in each of these terms except A. resources. B. money spent. C. percent of GDP. D. imports vs. exports.
9. "Benedict Arnold Corporations" are loyal to A. their customers. B. America. C. their employees. D. the profits of their stockholders.
10. Which of the following is not a characteristic of sole proprietorship? A. Ease of organization ion B. Simplicity of control C. Limited availability of capital D. Relatively free from regulation E. Limited liability
11. Which one of these is an investment as counted in GDP? A. The purchase of Rockefeller Center by Mitsubishi. B. An increase in Intel's inventory. C. American Airline's purchase of Trans World Airline. D. Individual's purchase of General Motors stock through a broker.
12. The marginal efficiency of capital is a term that was coined by A. Karl Marx. B. John Maynard Keynes. C. Ambrose Bierce. D. Milton Friedman. E. John Stuart Mill.
13. Which one is not an investment? A. Mr. Retchnick buys a new home. B. Mrs. Kanaddle hopper purchases 500 shares of Dupont. C. Mr. Klopman adds a new wing to his factory. D. The Blattzspiel Brewery purchases 100 new vats.
6-3
14. As the interest rate rises a business firm would A. become less inclined to invest. B. become more inclined to invest. C. continue to invest at the same level.
15. Suppose you could invest $100,000 in inventory, which you expect to be able to sell at $140,000. If you expect your total selling costs to be $20,000, your expected profit rate would be ______ percent. A. 10.
US Recession 2008 Powerpoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Be prepared for both natural and unnatural fluctuations in the economy by employing these US Recession 2008 PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Take assistance from these global depression PPT slides, to fully dissect the impact and financial crisis cost of the economic downturn. Exhibit the plan of action and the roadmap to safeguard your business through this content-specific economic-stagnation PowerPoint presentation. Analyze the factors that led to this economic recession and the key figures that aggravated the downfall using our professionally created universal slump PPT theme. Understand the strategies that helped the businesses who bought CDO survive by using our stagflation PPT layouts. Prepare a well-structured and in-sequence timeline of the leading events to keep track of the changing economic factors with the assistance of our global downturn PPT templates. This economic decline PPT deck will assist you in formulating a detailed and thoughtful business plan for your company. Download this global recession PPT deck and educate your audience about major economic events in an accessible way. https://bit.ly/3ccMmGl
1.The tax multiplier associated with a $10B reduction in taxes i.docxhyacinthshackley2629
1.
The tax multiplier associated with a $10B reduction in taxes is _______ the spending multiplier associated with a $10B increase in government spending because __________
a.
the same quantity as / a tax change will either put more income into or out of savings
b.
smaller than / a tax change also involves a change in savings in the first round of spending
c.
larger than / taxes cause more discretionary income to be spent whether it is a tax increase or a tax decrease
d.
smaller than / the tax multiplier is usually very unstable
2.
Each year the Tax Foundation calculates the day of the year the average income earner has to work in order to pay taxes. This is known as Tax Freedom Day. Last year’s date, April 26, was three days later than the previous year’s. The Tax Foundation says this is because of economic growth leading to higher incomes and higher taxes.
This observation makes sense since our income tax system is progressive and therefore ___________. This is also consistent with ____________.
a.
takes a higher percent of income, the greater one’s income – how automatic stabilizers work
b.
takes a lower percent of income, the greater one’s income – how automatic stabilizers work
c.
takes a higher percent of income, the greater one’s income – the discretionary tools of fiscal policy
d.
takes a lower percent of income, the greater one’s income – monetary policy
3.
A house is a ______________ asset, and therefore this means that it takes ________ to recover its true value in the marketplace.
a.
liquid -- much time
b.
non-liquid -- much time
c.
liquid – very little time
d.
non-liquid -- very little time
4
."An increase in national income increases aggregate demand more than the initial increase in spending." The preceding statement describes
a.
microeconomic supply and demand curves.
b.
macroeconomic supply and demand curves.
c.
the spending multiplier.
d.
the money multiplier.
e.
both c) and d) are correct.
5.
If the Fed buys $1,000 worth of bonds and the banking multiplier is 8, then
a.
the reserve ratio is 12.5 percent.
b.
the potential money supply increase is greater than $1,000.
c.
there must also be a government spending increase or the Fed would not be buying the bonds.
d.
all of the above.
e.
both a) and b) are correct.
6.
Both fiscal and monetary policy affect the money supply.
a.
true
b.
false
7.
The Fed is considered "autonomous." In practice this means the Board of Governors
a.
run for reelection every 4 years.
b.
are more insulated from the wishes of the voters than Congress.
c.
are less insulated from the wishes of the voters than Congress.
d.
can do whatever they please since they have lifetime appointments.
8.
Which of the policy combinations given below would consistently work in the direction of decreasing the rate of growth of the money supply?
a.
Raise the discount rate, lower the reserve requirement and engage in open market sales.
b.
Lower the discount rate, lower the res.
The document compares the old and revised formats of Schedule VI of the Companies Act, 1956 regarding the balance sheet and statement of profit and loss. Some key changes highlighted include:
- The revised format only allows for a vertical presentation compared to both vertical and horizontal previously
- Headings were changed from "Sources of Funds" and "Application of Funds" to "Equity & Liabilities" and "Assets"
- Additional line items were added under shareholders' funds, non-current liabilities, current liabilities, non-current assets, and current assets.
- Definitions and disclosure requirements for items like share capital, reserves and surplus, borrowings, and receivables were expanded in the revised format
The document summarizes recent trends in the US bond and stock markets, and discusses their implications. It notes the large and growing US budget deficits and debt levels, which are projected to exceed 100% of GDP. It also discusses concerns around failed government bond auctions, China reducing its Treasury holdings, and potential problems in the US housing market that could lead to another taxpayer bailout.
The Great Depression was caused by a combination of factors including easy credit that created an illusion of prosperity in the 1920s, overproduction in agriculture and industry, growing unemployment and wealth inequality, a stock market crash in 1929, a risky and unregulated banking system, and initial government inaction. A depression occurs when there is a vicious cycle of low consumer confidence leading to low demand and prices, which causes business losses and layoffs exacerbating the cycle. The stock market crash sent false signals about the economy and led to widespread bank failures when people withdrew their deposits.
Chad Graham provides a summary of investment forecasts and strategies. He predicts major declines across stock markets, bonds, commodities, and real estate as another credit crisis unfolds. He is aggressively shorting markets and recommends others do the same to profit from the declines. Graham also advises building cash reserves in U.S. dollars and Swiss francs, hiding assets from governments that may seize funds, and timing investments to buy low during the expected downturn while prices are at "basement bargain" levels.
This document discusses preparations for an impending global "reset" or major economic crisis. It outlines several factors that could contribute to such a reset, including growing government debt, rising corporate debt, and unstable political rhetoric. It warns that current reset preparation advice to hold only precious metals and cash may be insufficient, as those assets could experience volatility in the initial crisis period. Instead, it advocates having a flexible strategy that combines defensive positions like gold with well-timed attacks through short selling and cryptocurrency trading, in order to take advantage of market movements and maximize returns during the crisis. The document expresses concern that the post-reset system may involve increased government control over the economy and reduced civil liberties.
This document contains a multiple choice practice exam for a final. It provides information about posted practice questions, exam date and time, and review sessions. It then lists 16 multiple choice questions related to economics topics along with their respective answer choices. The questions cover signaling, asymmetric information, insurance, discrimination, income distribution, welfare policy, minimum wage, externalities, and public goods.
The document summarizes the key factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and outlines steps taken by the US government to address it. Specifically, it discusses how stagnant real wage growth, rising consumer debt, the housing bubble bursting, overuse of complex financial instruments like credit default swaps, and lack of oversight combined to undermine the economy. The government responded with a $700 billion bailout package aimed at stabilizing banks, boosting liquidity, and removing toxic assets from balance sheets.
The document summarizes the key factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and outlines steps taken by the US government to address it. Specifically, it discusses how stagnant real wage growth, rising consumer debt, the housing bubble bursting, overuse of risky financial instruments like credit default swaps, and lack of oversight combined to undermine the economy. The government responded with a $700 billion bailout package aimed at stabilizing banks, boosting liquidity, and removing toxic assets from balance sheets.
This complete deck can be used to present to your team. It has PPT slides on various topics highlighting all the core areas of your business needs. This complete deck focuses on Financial Crisis PowerPoint Presentation Slides and has professionally designed templates with suitable visuals and appropriate content. This deck consists of total of twenty eight slides. All the slides are completely customizable for your convenience. You can change the colour, text and font size of these templates. You can add or delete the content if needed. Get access to this professionally designed complete presentation by clicking the download button below. https://bit.ly/3fyIZc7
Here are some options we could discuss for investing €50,000:
- Buy a property and rent it out for income. We'd need to consider location, rental demand, property management responsibilities.
- Open a high-interest savings account. Rates are low now but it's safe and liquid. We wouldn't earn much but we wouldn't lose money either.
- Invest in stocks through low-cost index funds to gain long-term growth. The market usually increases over time but there is risk of short-term losses. We'd need to choose funds carefully.
- Start a small business. More risky but high potential returns. We'd need a solid business plan and be prepared to work hard to make
SEP - Crisis: causes, consequences and cures Short VersionPRBS
The document provides background on the global financial crisis. It discusses how a period of growth from 2002-2007 was followed by a recession. Countries like Germany, Japan, and China saw trade surpluses but did not increase domestic spending. Low interest rates in the US led to a spending boom and rise in household debt. Risky "NINJA" mortgages were securitized and sold, fueling a property bubble. The defaults began with subprime mortgages, causing interbank lending to dry up. Governments launched expensive bailouts of banks but now face high debt levels. International groups like the IMF, EU stabilization fund, and Financial Stability Board are working to reform regulations and restore stability.
1.Suppose that firms in Boversia gain confidence in the economy,.docxAlyciaGold776
1.
Suppose that firms in Boversia gain confidence in the economy, so domestic investment rises for any given interest rate. For now, assume that net capital outflows don’t change. What happens to output and the real exchange rate when the Boversian central bank holds the real interest rate constant? (Hint: Stick to the assumptions made in chapter 17.)
A.
Output increases and the real exchange rate increases.
B.
Output increases and the real exchange rate decreases.
C.
Output increases and the real exchange rate stays constant.
D.
None of the given answers are correct
2.
Suppose again that investment rises in Boversia. In this case, assume that higher confidence in the economy also causes a decrease in net capital outflows. What happens to output and the real exchange rate when the Boversian central bank holds the real interest constant. (Hint: Stick to the assumptions made in chapter 17.)
A.
Output increases and the real exchange rate increases.
B.
Output increases and the real exchange rate decreases.
C.
Output increases and the real exchange rate stays constant.
D.
None of the given answers are correct.
3.
Consider the scenario in Figure 17.4: a rise in confidence causes a fall in net capital outflows, and the central bank adjusts the interest rate to keep the exchange rate constant. For this case, what happens to consumption and investment.
A.
C increases, I increases.
B.
C increases, I is constant.
C.
C is constant, I decreases.
D.
C is constant, I is constant.
4.
Suppose government spending rises in Boversia, shifting the AE curve outward. The central bank would like to keep both output and the real exchange rate constant. How can policymakers accomplish these goals through a combination of an interest-rate adjustment and capital controls.
A.
The central bank has to increase the real interest rate and prevent capital outflows.
B.
The central bank has to increase the real interest rate and prevent capital inflows.
C.
The central bank has to decrease the real interest rate and prevent capital outflows.
D.
The central bank cannot achieve the two goals simultaneously.
5.
Compare two statements about exchange rates by former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, both from 2007: (1) “A strong dollar is in our nation’s interest.” (2) “The currency [China’s yuan] needs to appreciate, and it needs to appreciate faster.” Are the two statements consistent with one another?
A.
The two statements are consistent because both imply a yuan appreciation.
B.
The two statements are consistent because both imply a dollar depreciation.
C.
The two statements are not consistent.
D.
There is not enough information to judge the consistency of the two statements.
6.
What is the difference between an appreciation and a revaluation of a currency?
A.
Appreciation implies that a currency becomes more valuable as measured in units of foreign currency while a revaluation implies that the currency becomes less valuable as measured in un.
The document provides exercises to test understanding of common English idioms. Exercise 1 defines 7 idioms and provides 3 options for each, with only 1 being correct. Exercise 2 asks to identify the meanings of 7 idiomatic phrases from multiple choice answers. Exercise 3 gives incomplete sentences for readers to fill in with appropriate idioms from Exercises 1 and 2. The exercises assess comprehension of common English idioms and their meanings.
In Fall 1999- people in the financial community were making their fina.docxcarold12
In Fall 1999, people in the financial community were making their final plans for the beginning of the year 2000. Everyone was concerned about the Y2K problem. The primary concern was that public would panic and remove significant amount of cash from banks.
a. What would the effect of removing cash from banks be on the following: the monetary base, the money multiplier and the money supply? Explain
b. Explain the banking system response to the expected event?
c. Explain the Fed response to the expected event
Solution
a. when majority of the money is drawn from banks, banks need huge physical money which is not possible to supply. because in every economy banks holds physical cash very limit and they hold assets interms of cheqes and other forms.
money supply falls, and the demand is high for physical money
b. banks are reacted in planned way, and they provided maximum amount of money to the depostiers.
c. Fed feared to supply physical money to meat the market demand.
.
Sample Macro QuestionsMultiple Choice (Select the best option av.docxanhlodge
Sample Macro Questions
Multiple Choice (Select the best option available.)
1..
In the factor market, households
(a)
sell resources.
(b)
buy resources.
(c)
are neither buyers nor sellers of resources.
(d)
are both buyers and sellers of resources.
2.
GDP does not include
(a)
business investment.
(b)
overseas production of U.S. subsidiaries.
(c)
net exports.
(d)
consumption expenditures.
3.
Official unemployment rates may underestimate the true rate of unemployment because the
official rate
(a)
includes those workers who only work part time.
(b)
may include some individuals who are not actually in the labor force.
(c)
does not include individuals receiving any type of unemployment compensation.
(d)
fails to include discouraged workers.
4.
If the U.S. economy enters a recessionary phase, the
(a)
economy experiences full employment.
(b)
unemployment rate will increase.
(c)
entire population will be unemployed.
(d)
entire population will be partially unemployed.
5.
The circular flow diagram shows
(a)
goods, services, and money payments flowing in the same direction.
(b)
goods and money payments flowing in one direction and services flowing in the opposite direction.
(c)
goods and services flowing in one direction and money payments in the other direction.
(d)
goods flowing in one direction and services and money payments flowing in the other direction.
6.
GDP measures
(a)
the total value of labor used in the economy.
(b)
the total market value of final goods and services produced within a nation’s borders.
(c)
the total income received by residents of a nation.
(d)
the total worth of all goods consumed within the borders of a nation.
7.
A price index shows
(a)
the current cost of a basket of goods.
(b)
the relative price of necessities.
(c)
the price of goods in the future.
(d)
the cost of today’s goods expressed in terms of the cost of goods in a base year.
8. A public good is:
(a) a good or service for which it is relatively easy to exclude nonpaying customers from consumption.
(b) a good or service which is consumed by both the paying and nonpaying customers.
(c) any good or service which is produced by the government.
(d) a good or service which is consumed by private individuals and financed by private contributions.
9.
The sum of all planned expenditures for the entire economy at each possible price level is
(a)
aggregate supply.
(b)
effective demand.
(c)
aggregate demand.
(d)
actual expenditures by consumers.
10.
Suppose the total value of all assets in the United States is $10 trillion. In 2006, the total value of all final services produced in the United States was $100 billion, the total value of all final goods produced in the United States was $300 billion, and the total value of all final goods and services produced by American firms in other countries was $100 billion. In this situation, gross domestic product for 2006 was
(a)
$600 billion.
(b)
$500 billion.
(c)
$400 billion.
(d).
Here are potential essay responses to the three questions:
The place I most want to travel is Japan. I have always been fascinated by Japanese culture - the food, architecture, history, and natural beauty. From bustling cities like Tokyo to remote mountain villages, Japan seems to offer a unique experience around every corner. I would love to explore places like Kyoto, with its ancient temples and shrines, and hike in the Japanese Alps. The diverse landscapes and cultural traditions of Japan appeal to me. Learning more about a culture so different from my own also seems like an enriching way to broaden my perspectives.
My favorite movie is The Lord of the Rings trilogy. I am drawn to the epic scale of the story and
Please be sure to give proper credit when presenting .docxjoyjonna282
Please be sure to give proper credit when presenting non-original material in the essay questions (4, 12, 17, and 29). You don't need to adhere to APA style citations, but you do need to credit non-original ideas. If you are going to cite the text, just a quick (Mishkin, p. xxx)
1. A plot of the interest rates on default-free government bonds with different terms to maturity is called
(a) a yield curve
(b) a default-free curve
(c) an interest-rate curve
(d) A risk-structure-curve
2. The higher a securities price in the secondary market the ________ funds a firm can raise by selling securities in the ________ market.
(a) More; secondary
(b) Less ; secondary
(c) Less ; primary
(d) More ; primary
3. he U.S. banking system is considered to be a dual system because
(a) banks offer both checking and savings accounts
(b) It actually includes both banks and thrift institutions.
(c) It was established before the Civil War, requiring separate regulatory bodies for the North and South.
(d) It is regulated by both state and federal governments.
4. Keynes titled his famous book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, suggesting that the case of an economy reaching long-term equilibrium at full-employment was just a special case that could incorporated into his general theory. He argued that it is possible for the economy to reach a long-run equilibrium at less than full employment, as occurred in the US in the 1930s. His theory, as it relates to countercyclical fiscal policy is controversial to this day. Interest in Keynes' theory was rekindled in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. Discuss the US policy response to the 2008 financial crisis in terms of Keynesian theory, and how the US experience of The Great Depression informed the Fed's response in 2008-current. You may wish to include a discussion of fiscal policy as well.
5. The amount of assets per dollar of equity capital is called the
(a) equity ratio
(b) Equity multiplier
(c) Asset multiplier.
(d) Asset ratio.
6. Financial markets have the basic function of
(a) Assuring that the swings in the business cycle are less pronounced.
(b) Assuring that governments need never resort to printing money.
(c) Getting people with funds to lend together with people who want to borrow funds.
(d) Providing a risk-free repository of spending power.
7. When the interest rate is ________, ________ investments in physical capital will earn more than the cost of borrowed funds, so planned investment spending is ________.
(a) low; few; high
(b) high ; many ; high
(c) low ; many ; low
(d) high ; few ; low
(e) high ; few high
8. Which of the following would a bank not hold as insurance against the highest cost of deposit outflow-bank failure?
(a) Bank capital
(b) Mortgages
(c) Secondary reserves
(d) Excess reserves
9. Which of the following are true concerning the distinction between interest rates and returns?
(a) The return can be expressed as the sum ...
While Machiavelli’s reputation is that of a ruthless political advisor and theorist, UT Professor Maurizio Viroli — recognized as the world’s leading authority on his life and writings — insists his legacy is misconstrued.
Viroli, who taught at Princeton before joining the Liberal Arts faculty at UT, cautions that before dissecting Machiavelli’s writings, one thing above all must be remembered: He aimed to inspire and instruct great political leaders, not the ordinary or mediocre. “If we want to apply his counsel to business, it must be to inspire great leaders — a prince of business.” Can it be done?
The McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin hosted a series of business forecasts for 2017 in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. Economists and executives from key industry sectors led discussions about what to expect for both Texas’ and the nation’s economies. Here are a few things we learned.
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Similar to Sandy Leeds on the U.S. Economy, Speaking Notes 8 09
6-1MacroeconomicsInstructor Jen Dinsmore HansonHomework As.docxssuser774ad41
6-1
Macroeconomics
Instructor: Jen Dinsmore Hanson
Homework Assignment
Chapter 6
Multiple Choice Questions
1. A business firm with limited liability would be a A. proprietorship. B. partnership. C. corporation.
2. Which one of these would not constitute investment? A. Someone buys 100 shares of Exxon-Mobil B. Exxon-Mobil purchases 20 new oil rigs C. General Motors builds a new assembly plant D. Macy's remodels its stores
3. To build up our capital we need to A. save more and consume more. B. save more and consume less. C. save less and consume less. D. save less and consume more.
4. The expected rate of profit is found by A. multiplying expected profits by money invested. B. dividing expected profits by money invested. C. dividing money invested by expected profits. D. none of these.
5. Which statement is true? A. Stockholders and bondholders are both owners of a corporation. B. Neither stockholders nor bondholders are owners of a corporation. C. Only stockholders are owners of a corporation. D. Only bondholders are owners of a corporation.
6. Which statement is false? A. Most corporations are small firms. B. Most firms in the United States are proprietorships. C. Preferred stockholders rarely have a voice in running corporations. D. None of these statements is false.
6-2
7. The "reserve army of the unemployed" was a term coined by A. Adam Smith B. John Maynard Keynes C. Thorstein Veblen D. Karl Marx E. Milton Friedman
8. Investment may be thought of in each of these terms except A. resources. B. money spent. C. percent of GDP. D. imports vs. exports.
9. "Benedict Arnold Corporations" are loyal to A. their customers. B. America. C. their employees. D. the profits of their stockholders.
10. Which of the following is not a characteristic of sole proprietorship? A. Ease of organization ion B. Simplicity of control C. Limited availability of capital D. Relatively free from regulation E. Limited liability
11. Which one of these is an investment as counted in GDP? A. The purchase of Rockefeller Center by Mitsubishi. B. An increase in Intel's inventory. C. American Airline's purchase of Trans World Airline. D. Individual's purchase of General Motors stock through a broker.
12. The marginal efficiency of capital is a term that was coined by A. Karl Marx. B. John Maynard Keynes. C. Ambrose Bierce. D. Milton Friedman. E. John Stuart Mill.
13. Which one is not an investment? A. Mr. Retchnick buys a new home. B. Mrs. Kanaddle hopper purchases 500 shares of Dupont. C. Mr. Klopman adds a new wing to his factory. D. The Blattzspiel Brewery purchases 100 new vats.
6-3
14. As the interest rate rises a business firm would A. become less inclined to invest. B. become more inclined to invest. C. continue to invest at the same level.
15. Suppose you could invest $100,000 in inventory, which you expect to be able to sell at $140,000. If you expect your total selling costs to be $20,000, your expected profit rate would be ______ percent. A. 10.
US Recession 2008 Powerpoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Be prepared for both natural and unnatural fluctuations in the economy by employing these US Recession 2008 PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Take assistance from these global depression PPT slides, to fully dissect the impact and financial crisis cost of the economic downturn. Exhibit the plan of action and the roadmap to safeguard your business through this content-specific economic-stagnation PowerPoint presentation. Analyze the factors that led to this economic recession and the key figures that aggravated the downfall using our professionally created universal slump PPT theme. Understand the strategies that helped the businesses who bought CDO survive by using our stagflation PPT layouts. Prepare a well-structured and in-sequence timeline of the leading events to keep track of the changing economic factors with the assistance of our global downturn PPT templates. This economic decline PPT deck will assist you in formulating a detailed and thoughtful business plan for your company. Download this global recession PPT deck and educate your audience about major economic events in an accessible way. https://bit.ly/3ccMmGl
1.The tax multiplier associated with a $10B reduction in taxes i.docxhyacinthshackley2629
1.
The tax multiplier associated with a $10B reduction in taxes is _______ the spending multiplier associated with a $10B increase in government spending because __________
a.
the same quantity as / a tax change will either put more income into or out of savings
b.
smaller than / a tax change also involves a change in savings in the first round of spending
c.
larger than / taxes cause more discretionary income to be spent whether it is a tax increase or a tax decrease
d.
smaller than / the tax multiplier is usually very unstable
2.
Each year the Tax Foundation calculates the day of the year the average income earner has to work in order to pay taxes. This is known as Tax Freedom Day. Last year’s date, April 26, was three days later than the previous year’s. The Tax Foundation says this is because of economic growth leading to higher incomes and higher taxes.
This observation makes sense since our income tax system is progressive and therefore ___________. This is also consistent with ____________.
a.
takes a higher percent of income, the greater one’s income – how automatic stabilizers work
b.
takes a lower percent of income, the greater one’s income – how automatic stabilizers work
c.
takes a higher percent of income, the greater one’s income – the discretionary tools of fiscal policy
d.
takes a lower percent of income, the greater one’s income – monetary policy
3.
A house is a ______________ asset, and therefore this means that it takes ________ to recover its true value in the marketplace.
a.
liquid -- much time
b.
non-liquid -- much time
c.
liquid – very little time
d.
non-liquid -- very little time
4
."An increase in national income increases aggregate demand more than the initial increase in spending." The preceding statement describes
a.
microeconomic supply and demand curves.
b.
macroeconomic supply and demand curves.
c.
the spending multiplier.
d.
the money multiplier.
e.
both c) and d) are correct.
5.
If the Fed buys $1,000 worth of bonds and the banking multiplier is 8, then
a.
the reserve ratio is 12.5 percent.
b.
the potential money supply increase is greater than $1,000.
c.
there must also be a government spending increase or the Fed would not be buying the bonds.
d.
all of the above.
e.
both a) and b) are correct.
6.
Both fiscal and monetary policy affect the money supply.
a.
true
b.
false
7.
The Fed is considered "autonomous." In practice this means the Board of Governors
a.
run for reelection every 4 years.
b.
are more insulated from the wishes of the voters than Congress.
c.
are less insulated from the wishes of the voters than Congress.
d.
can do whatever they please since they have lifetime appointments.
8.
Which of the policy combinations given below would consistently work in the direction of decreasing the rate of growth of the money supply?
a.
Raise the discount rate, lower the reserve requirement and engage in open market sales.
b.
Lower the discount rate, lower the res.
The document compares the old and revised formats of Schedule VI of the Companies Act, 1956 regarding the balance sheet and statement of profit and loss. Some key changes highlighted include:
- The revised format only allows for a vertical presentation compared to both vertical and horizontal previously
- Headings were changed from "Sources of Funds" and "Application of Funds" to "Equity & Liabilities" and "Assets"
- Additional line items were added under shareholders' funds, non-current liabilities, current liabilities, non-current assets, and current assets.
- Definitions and disclosure requirements for items like share capital, reserves and surplus, borrowings, and receivables were expanded in the revised format
The document summarizes recent trends in the US bond and stock markets, and discusses their implications. It notes the large and growing US budget deficits and debt levels, which are projected to exceed 100% of GDP. It also discusses concerns around failed government bond auctions, China reducing its Treasury holdings, and potential problems in the US housing market that could lead to another taxpayer bailout.
The Great Depression was caused by a combination of factors including easy credit that created an illusion of prosperity in the 1920s, overproduction in agriculture and industry, growing unemployment and wealth inequality, a stock market crash in 1929, a risky and unregulated banking system, and initial government inaction. A depression occurs when there is a vicious cycle of low consumer confidence leading to low demand and prices, which causes business losses and layoffs exacerbating the cycle. The stock market crash sent false signals about the economy and led to widespread bank failures when people withdrew their deposits.
Chad Graham provides a summary of investment forecasts and strategies. He predicts major declines across stock markets, bonds, commodities, and real estate as another credit crisis unfolds. He is aggressively shorting markets and recommends others do the same to profit from the declines. Graham also advises building cash reserves in U.S. dollars and Swiss francs, hiding assets from governments that may seize funds, and timing investments to buy low during the expected downturn while prices are at "basement bargain" levels.
This document discusses preparations for an impending global "reset" or major economic crisis. It outlines several factors that could contribute to such a reset, including growing government debt, rising corporate debt, and unstable political rhetoric. It warns that current reset preparation advice to hold only precious metals and cash may be insufficient, as those assets could experience volatility in the initial crisis period. Instead, it advocates having a flexible strategy that combines defensive positions like gold with well-timed attacks through short selling and cryptocurrency trading, in order to take advantage of market movements and maximize returns during the crisis. The document expresses concern that the post-reset system may involve increased government control over the economy and reduced civil liberties.
This document contains a multiple choice practice exam for a final. It provides information about posted practice questions, exam date and time, and review sessions. It then lists 16 multiple choice questions related to economics topics along with their respective answer choices. The questions cover signaling, asymmetric information, insurance, discrimination, income distribution, welfare policy, minimum wage, externalities, and public goods.
The document summarizes the key factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and outlines steps taken by the US government to address it. Specifically, it discusses how stagnant real wage growth, rising consumer debt, the housing bubble bursting, overuse of complex financial instruments like credit default swaps, and lack of oversight combined to undermine the economy. The government responded with a $700 billion bailout package aimed at stabilizing banks, boosting liquidity, and removing toxic assets from balance sheets.
The document summarizes the key factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and outlines steps taken by the US government to address it. Specifically, it discusses how stagnant real wage growth, rising consumer debt, the housing bubble bursting, overuse of risky financial instruments like credit default swaps, and lack of oversight combined to undermine the economy. The government responded with a $700 billion bailout package aimed at stabilizing banks, boosting liquidity, and removing toxic assets from balance sheets.
This complete deck can be used to present to your team. It has PPT slides on various topics highlighting all the core areas of your business needs. This complete deck focuses on Financial Crisis PowerPoint Presentation Slides and has professionally designed templates with suitable visuals and appropriate content. This deck consists of total of twenty eight slides. All the slides are completely customizable for your convenience. You can change the colour, text and font size of these templates. You can add or delete the content if needed. Get access to this professionally designed complete presentation by clicking the download button below. https://bit.ly/3fyIZc7
Here are some options we could discuss for investing €50,000:
- Buy a property and rent it out for income. We'd need to consider location, rental demand, property management responsibilities.
- Open a high-interest savings account. Rates are low now but it's safe and liquid. We wouldn't earn much but we wouldn't lose money either.
- Invest in stocks through low-cost index funds to gain long-term growth. The market usually increases over time but there is risk of short-term losses. We'd need to choose funds carefully.
- Start a small business. More risky but high potential returns. We'd need a solid business plan and be prepared to work hard to make
SEP - Crisis: causes, consequences and cures Short VersionPRBS
The document provides background on the global financial crisis. It discusses how a period of growth from 2002-2007 was followed by a recession. Countries like Germany, Japan, and China saw trade surpluses but did not increase domestic spending. Low interest rates in the US led to a spending boom and rise in household debt. Risky "NINJA" mortgages were securitized and sold, fueling a property bubble. The defaults began with subprime mortgages, causing interbank lending to dry up. Governments launched expensive bailouts of banks but now face high debt levels. International groups like the IMF, EU stabilization fund, and Financial Stability Board are working to reform regulations and restore stability.
1.Suppose that firms in Boversia gain confidence in the economy,.docxAlyciaGold776
1.
Suppose that firms in Boversia gain confidence in the economy, so domestic investment rises for any given interest rate. For now, assume that net capital outflows don’t change. What happens to output and the real exchange rate when the Boversian central bank holds the real interest rate constant? (Hint: Stick to the assumptions made in chapter 17.)
A.
Output increases and the real exchange rate increases.
B.
Output increases and the real exchange rate decreases.
C.
Output increases and the real exchange rate stays constant.
D.
None of the given answers are correct
2.
Suppose again that investment rises in Boversia. In this case, assume that higher confidence in the economy also causes a decrease in net capital outflows. What happens to output and the real exchange rate when the Boversian central bank holds the real interest constant. (Hint: Stick to the assumptions made in chapter 17.)
A.
Output increases and the real exchange rate increases.
B.
Output increases and the real exchange rate decreases.
C.
Output increases and the real exchange rate stays constant.
D.
None of the given answers are correct.
3.
Consider the scenario in Figure 17.4: a rise in confidence causes a fall in net capital outflows, and the central bank adjusts the interest rate to keep the exchange rate constant. For this case, what happens to consumption and investment.
A.
C increases, I increases.
B.
C increases, I is constant.
C.
C is constant, I decreases.
D.
C is constant, I is constant.
4.
Suppose government spending rises in Boversia, shifting the AE curve outward. The central bank would like to keep both output and the real exchange rate constant. How can policymakers accomplish these goals through a combination of an interest-rate adjustment and capital controls.
A.
The central bank has to increase the real interest rate and prevent capital outflows.
B.
The central bank has to increase the real interest rate and prevent capital inflows.
C.
The central bank has to decrease the real interest rate and prevent capital outflows.
D.
The central bank cannot achieve the two goals simultaneously.
5.
Compare two statements about exchange rates by former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, both from 2007: (1) “A strong dollar is in our nation’s interest.” (2) “The currency [China’s yuan] needs to appreciate, and it needs to appreciate faster.” Are the two statements consistent with one another?
A.
The two statements are consistent because both imply a yuan appreciation.
B.
The two statements are consistent because both imply a dollar depreciation.
C.
The two statements are not consistent.
D.
There is not enough information to judge the consistency of the two statements.
6.
What is the difference between an appreciation and a revaluation of a currency?
A.
Appreciation implies that a currency becomes more valuable as measured in units of foreign currency while a revaluation implies that the currency becomes less valuable as measured in un.
The document provides exercises to test understanding of common English idioms. Exercise 1 defines 7 idioms and provides 3 options for each, with only 1 being correct. Exercise 2 asks to identify the meanings of 7 idiomatic phrases from multiple choice answers. Exercise 3 gives incomplete sentences for readers to fill in with appropriate idioms from Exercises 1 and 2. The exercises assess comprehension of common English idioms and their meanings.
In Fall 1999- people in the financial community were making their fina.docxcarold12
In Fall 1999, people in the financial community were making their final plans for the beginning of the year 2000. Everyone was concerned about the Y2K problem. The primary concern was that public would panic and remove significant amount of cash from banks.
a. What would the effect of removing cash from banks be on the following: the monetary base, the money multiplier and the money supply? Explain
b. Explain the banking system response to the expected event?
c. Explain the Fed response to the expected event
Solution
a. when majority of the money is drawn from banks, banks need huge physical money which is not possible to supply. because in every economy banks holds physical cash very limit and they hold assets interms of cheqes and other forms.
money supply falls, and the demand is high for physical money
b. banks are reacted in planned way, and they provided maximum amount of money to the depostiers.
c. Fed feared to supply physical money to meat the market demand.
.
Sample Macro QuestionsMultiple Choice (Select the best option av.docxanhlodge
Sample Macro Questions
Multiple Choice (Select the best option available.)
1..
In the factor market, households
(a)
sell resources.
(b)
buy resources.
(c)
are neither buyers nor sellers of resources.
(d)
are both buyers and sellers of resources.
2.
GDP does not include
(a)
business investment.
(b)
overseas production of U.S. subsidiaries.
(c)
net exports.
(d)
consumption expenditures.
3.
Official unemployment rates may underestimate the true rate of unemployment because the
official rate
(a)
includes those workers who only work part time.
(b)
may include some individuals who are not actually in the labor force.
(c)
does not include individuals receiving any type of unemployment compensation.
(d)
fails to include discouraged workers.
4.
If the U.S. economy enters a recessionary phase, the
(a)
economy experiences full employment.
(b)
unemployment rate will increase.
(c)
entire population will be unemployed.
(d)
entire population will be partially unemployed.
5.
The circular flow diagram shows
(a)
goods, services, and money payments flowing in the same direction.
(b)
goods and money payments flowing in one direction and services flowing in the opposite direction.
(c)
goods and services flowing in one direction and money payments in the other direction.
(d)
goods flowing in one direction and services and money payments flowing in the other direction.
6.
GDP measures
(a)
the total value of labor used in the economy.
(b)
the total market value of final goods and services produced within a nation’s borders.
(c)
the total income received by residents of a nation.
(d)
the total worth of all goods consumed within the borders of a nation.
7.
A price index shows
(a)
the current cost of a basket of goods.
(b)
the relative price of necessities.
(c)
the price of goods in the future.
(d)
the cost of today’s goods expressed in terms of the cost of goods in a base year.
8. A public good is:
(a) a good or service for which it is relatively easy to exclude nonpaying customers from consumption.
(b) a good or service which is consumed by both the paying and nonpaying customers.
(c) any good or service which is produced by the government.
(d) a good or service which is consumed by private individuals and financed by private contributions.
9.
The sum of all planned expenditures for the entire economy at each possible price level is
(a)
aggregate supply.
(b)
effective demand.
(c)
aggregate demand.
(d)
actual expenditures by consumers.
10.
Suppose the total value of all assets in the United States is $10 trillion. In 2006, the total value of all final services produced in the United States was $100 billion, the total value of all final goods produced in the United States was $300 billion, and the total value of all final goods and services produced by American firms in other countries was $100 billion. In this situation, gross domestic product for 2006 was
(a)
$600 billion.
(b)
$500 billion.
(c)
$400 billion.
(d).
Here are potential essay responses to the three questions:
The place I most want to travel is Japan. I have always been fascinated by Japanese culture - the food, architecture, history, and natural beauty. From bustling cities like Tokyo to remote mountain villages, Japan seems to offer a unique experience around every corner. I would love to explore places like Kyoto, with its ancient temples and shrines, and hike in the Japanese Alps. The diverse landscapes and cultural traditions of Japan appeal to me. Learning more about a culture so different from my own also seems like an enriching way to broaden my perspectives.
My favorite movie is The Lord of the Rings trilogy. I am drawn to the epic scale of the story and
Please be sure to give proper credit when presenting .docxjoyjonna282
Please be sure to give proper credit when presenting non-original material in the essay questions (4, 12, 17, and 29). You don't need to adhere to APA style citations, but you do need to credit non-original ideas. If you are going to cite the text, just a quick (Mishkin, p. xxx)
1. A plot of the interest rates on default-free government bonds with different terms to maturity is called
(a) a yield curve
(b) a default-free curve
(c) an interest-rate curve
(d) A risk-structure-curve
2. The higher a securities price in the secondary market the ________ funds a firm can raise by selling securities in the ________ market.
(a) More; secondary
(b) Less ; secondary
(c) Less ; primary
(d) More ; primary
3. he U.S. banking system is considered to be a dual system because
(a) banks offer both checking and savings accounts
(b) It actually includes both banks and thrift institutions.
(c) It was established before the Civil War, requiring separate regulatory bodies for the North and South.
(d) It is regulated by both state and federal governments.
4. Keynes titled his famous book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, suggesting that the case of an economy reaching long-term equilibrium at full-employment was just a special case that could incorporated into his general theory. He argued that it is possible for the economy to reach a long-run equilibrium at less than full employment, as occurred in the US in the 1930s. His theory, as it relates to countercyclical fiscal policy is controversial to this day. Interest in Keynes' theory was rekindled in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. Discuss the US policy response to the 2008 financial crisis in terms of Keynesian theory, and how the US experience of The Great Depression informed the Fed's response in 2008-current. You may wish to include a discussion of fiscal policy as well.
5. The amount of assets per dollar of equity capital is called the
(a) equity ratio
(b) Equity multiplier
(c) Asset multiplier.
(d) Asset ratio.
6. Financial markets have the basic function of
(a) Assuring that the swings in the business cycle are less pronounced.
(b) Assuring that governments need never resort to printing money.
(c) Getting people with funds to lend together with people who want to borrow funds.
(d) Providing a risk-free repository of spending power.
7. When the interest rate is ________, ________ investments in physical capital will earn more than the cost of borrowed funds, so planned investment spending is ________.
(a) low; few; high
(b) high ; many ; high
(c) low ; many ; low
(d) high ; few ; low
(e) high ; few high
8. Which of the following would a bank not hold as insurance against the highest cost of deposit outflow-bank failure?
(a) Bank capital
(b) Mortgages
(c) Secondary reserves
(d) Excess reserves
9. Which of the following are true concerning the distinction between interest rates and returns?
(a) The return can be expressed as the sum ...
Similar to Sandy Leeds on the U.S. Economy, Speaking Notes 8 09 (20)
While Machiavelli’s reputation is that of a ruthless political advisor and theorist, UT Professor Maurizio Viroli — recognized as the world’s leading authority on his life and writings — insists his legacy is misconstrued.
Viroli, who taught at Princeton before joining the Liberal Arts faculty at UT, cautions that before dissecting Machiavelli’s writings, one thing above all must be remembered: He aimed to inspire and instruct great political leaders, not the ordinary or mediocre. “If we want to apply his counsel to business, it must be to inspire great leaders — a prince of business.” Can it be done?
The McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin hosted a series of business forecasts for 2017 in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. Economists and executives from key industry sectors led discussions about what to expect for both Texas’ and the nation’s economies. Here are a few things we learned.
The document summarizes a presentation given by Bob Metcalfe on startup ecosystems. Some key points:
- Metcalfe discussed his role in inventing Ethernet and how innovations are commercialized.
- He outlined the "Doriot ecology" of factors that support startup innovation, including funding agencies, researchers, entrepreneurs, investors, and customers.
- The concept of "Inoversities" was introduced, where universities focus more on innovation and allow professors to start companies based on their research.
- Many opportunities for startup innovation were listed, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare technologies, and the internet of things.
Former NFL and college football coach Daron Roberts offers the following management lessons from his coaching experience: practice your primary strategy thoroughly so you can rely on it when most needed; avoid mission creep by keeping focused on your core goals and purpose; and plan your first key initiatives or moves carefully as with scripting the first 25 plays of a game.
The latest UT Energy Poll shows Americans are choosing the planet over their pocketbooks.
After a year of lower gas prices, consumers are more optimistic about America’s energy future. They’re also turning more attention to energy’s environmental impacts and want the federal government to get busier investing in renewables and other energy sources.
In Austin, there are two types of madness in the month of March: the basketball kind (go Horns) and South by Southwest.
SXSW Interactive is a haven for business, tech, health care, and startup communities to flourish and spread ideas. Last year, more than 32,000 people from 80 countries attended and heard more than 2,300 speakers discuss the latest trends and buzzworthy technology. In other words, it can get overwhelming for the uninitiated.
If you're choosing to skip Cancun for a spring break spent ducking in and out of speaker panels, here are six tips for surviving SXSW Interactive, courtesy of a few veteran SXSW attendees from the McCombs School of Business.
An overview of the content marketing approach at the McCombs School, illustrated by recent branded content examples. This short presentation was presented to a visiting group of marketing executives from Beam Suntory.
2014 accolades from the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin. A list of McCombs business school rankings, school data, and career services information.
Where Leadership is Earned™
For more details visit: http://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/AnnualReport.aspx
After 30 years of teaching marketing at the McCombs School of Business and 25 years of corporate experience, Senior Lecturer Herb Miller shares his 10 principles of personal branding.
More than 4 million women and children across the globe are victims of forced sexual exploitation. Rescuing them from captivity is the first step, but as McCombs researchers have found, human slavery’s reach extends far beyond the brothel.
As we look back to the school year, recalling the accomplishments of the Class of 2014, we also look ahead. With that in mind, here are nine reasons McCombs grads will continue to make us proud.
William Cunningham, past University of Texas at Austin System chancellor, past UT president, and previous dean of the McCombs School, offers 11 tips for future CEOs.
Herb Kelleher, co-founder and chairman of Southwest Airlines, delivered a speech
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Keith W. Maxwell of Spark Energy, joins McCombs Finance Professor Jay Hartzell, Craig Cordola, CEO of Memorial Hermann Hospital -Texas Medical Center in Houston, and Greg Peters, CEO of Zillant, to take a look ahead at not just the national economy as a whole, but also at the state of Texas.
The U.S. is now the world's largest producer of hydrocarbons, because technology has enabled us to produce “tight” oil, or shale oil, Maxwell said.
Craig Cordola, CEO of Memorial Hermann Hospital -Texas Medical Center in Houston, joins McCombs Finance Professor Jay Hartzell, Keith W. Maxwell of Spark Energy, and Greg Peters of Zillant to take a look ahead at not just the national economy as a whole, but also at the state of Texas.
Under the Affordable Care Act, managed care patients will migrate to the insurance exchanges, and become unprofitable patients, Cordola said.
Representing big data on the 2014 Economic Forecast panel, Zilliant CEO Greg Peters shares his forecast. Federal Reserve Bank - Houston Branch, October 17, 2013
The document summarizes an economic forecast presented by Jay Harzell of the University of Texas at Austin to the Federal Reserve Bank of Houston. It outlines forecasts for US economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and policy uncertainty for 2013-2016. Key points include:
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- Unemployment will gradually decline from 7.5% in 2013 to 6.1% in 2016.
- Inflation as measured by CPI will be around 2.0-2.3% through 2015.
- Economic growth will continue to be slow due to household deleveraging and government spending
Mike Berry, President of Hillwood Properties, presented an economic forecast for 2014. He noted that the DFW metroplex continues to experience strong population and job growth, with over 1.5 million new residents expected in the next decade. Real estate trends show declining vacancy rates and increasing absorption across the multifamily, office, retail, and industrial sectors. Hillwood's AllianceTexas development was highlighted as an economic engine for North Texas, with over $7 billion invested and 35,000 jobs created across 18,000 acres. The expansion of the Panama Canal was also discussed as potentially benefiting North Texas inland ports and export growth.
The document discusses Mary Kay Inc.'s 2014 economic forecast and manufacturing outlook. It notes several headwinds and challenges facing the company such as an aging population, increased regulations, and difficulties working harder. It emphasizes the need for innovation to succeed and quotes Mary Kay Ash about the importance of self-competition rather than focusing on others.
The McCombs Undergraduate Business Council and the Undergraduate Program Office recently named 13 faculty members to the Fall 2013 Faculty Honor Roll, based on student surveys.
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Budgeting as a Control Tool in Government Accounting in Nigeria
Being a Paper Presented at the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Budget Office Staff at Sojourner Hotel, GRA, Ikeja Lagos on Saturday 8th June, 2024.
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Confirmation of Payee (CoP) is a vital security measure adopted by financial institutions and payment service providers. Its core purpose is to confirm that the recipient’s name matches the information provided by the sender during a banking transaction, ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct payment account.
Confirmation of Payee was built to tackle the increasing numbers of APP Fraud and in the landscape of UK banking, the spectre of APP fraud looms large. In 2022, over £1.2 billion was stolen by fraudsters through authorised and unauthorised fraud, equivalent to more than £2,300 every minute. This statistic emphasises the urgent need for robust security measures like CoP. While over £1.2 billion was stolen through fraud in 2022, there was an eight per cent reduction compared to 2021 which highlights the positive outcomes obtained from the implementation of Confirmation of Payee. The number of fraud cases across the UK also decreased by four per cent to nearly three million cases during the same period; latest statistics from UK Finance.
In essence, Confirmation of Payee plays a pivotal role in digital banking, guaranteeing the flawless execution of banking transactions. It stands as a guardian against fraud and misallocation, demonstrating the commitment of financial institutions to safeguard their clients’ assets. The next time you engage in a banking transaction, remember the invaluable role of CoP in ensuring the security of your financial interests.
For more details, you can visit https://technoxander.com.
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Sandy Leeds on the U.S. Economy, Speaking Notes 8 09
1. I. SL COVER
A.Thank you for inviting me to speak
1. while I miss the 102 degree Austin heat…
2. and while this hotel isn't the La Quinta that I'm accustomed to…
a. it's really nice to be here
3. I felt bad telling my wife that I'd be in the Motel 6 in Des Moines
a. but honey, they don't have phones, there…
(i) so I'll call you
1
2. B. I Want to Start Today With a Quick Story -- Sum Up My View of the World
1. there used to be a car company called GM
a. maybe some of you have heard about it
b. I've spoken about it for 10 years:
(i) had too much debt
(A) promised to pay retirement / healthcare
(ii) employees were overpaid / protected by partisan union
(iii) yr after yr, spent more than took in
(iv) management refused to address problems
(v) others produced better products that were cheaper
c. it was easy to see that it was not sustainable
(i) I would argue that everyone knew it
d. the question was "when would it happen"
(i) my answer was that I have no idea
(A) but it was unavoidable
e. a better answer would have been "I see an economic crisis
starting in 2007, resulting from credit bubble and a housing bubble"
(i) of course, I didn't know when, but you knew it would happen
f. there were times that you could successfully trade GM's stock
(i) but the buy and hold investor got killed
2
3. 2. the next GM is the United States
a. we have too much debt
(i) we've promised to pay for retirement and healthcare
for everyone
b. we are separated by partisan political parties
c. we continually run deficits
d. we refuse to address the problems
e. others are producing what we used to produce
(i) and they're doing it cheaper
3. the question is when will something happen
a. again, the answer is that I don't know, but it will happen
4. this shapes all of my views and I'm going to speak about this today
5. the order of my presentation will be:
a. I'll start with my long term view
b. then, I'll discuss our current state of affairs
c. finally, I'll end with what I'm worried about -- why I'm pessimistic
6. the reality is that none of us know what's going to happen next
a. my role is to present ideas to you
3
4. C. Before I get started: My Key Themes for Today:
1. the short term pain is subsiding
a. the rate of decline is slowing
2. the intermediate term is not promising
a. it will take a long time before the economy operates at full capacity again
(i) this recession is very different than past ones we've lived through
b. we can't recover without the financial sector
(i) this recovery will be slow
3. the long term will be ugly
a. John Maynard Keynes said that in the long term, we're all dead
b. I'd add that when we see our long term, we're going to be happy we're dead
(i) people will look back to the good old days of 2007 - 2009
4
5. II. The Long Term -- Unsustainable Debt Level
A. The Great Myth -- How We Speak About Debt
1. we say debt is approximately 40% of GDP
a. supposedly risk that it could increase to 80%
2. the truth about this 40%
a. this is "publicly held" debt
b. ignores government held debt DEBT 1
3. in reality, we have $11 trillion of debt DEBT 2
a. our GDP is $14.15 trillion
(i) so we're already at 79%
b. $7 trillion is held by the public
(i) investors like you and me…
(A) really you and you
(1) don't group me in there
(ii) institutional investors
(A) mutual funds, pension funds, etc.
(iii) foreign government
b. $4 trillion is held by our government
(i) this is the point of confusion
(ii) people say, "if gov't borrows $4 trillion from itself, it's not really debt"
(iii) for simplicity, lets imagine that the $4 trillion is being loaned by:
(A) Social Security
(iv) so Social Security has $4 trillion today, but they have a $20 trillion liability (in PV terms)
(v) when we talk about our debt, we're ignoring that unfunded liability
(vi) if you combine Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Affairs…
(A) how much would it take to fund our liability today?
(1) according to the Treasury Dep't…
-- $45 trillion
-- others think more
(B) but that puts our debt at 400% of GDP currently
5
6. B. The Long Term Consequences
1. over the next 25 years, the amount that the gov't lends to itself will decrease
a. that will have to be picked up by private investors
(i) this will require higher interest rates
2. over the longer term, the Chinas of the world will lose confidence in us
a. our dollar will decrease in value
(i) this will continue a long term trend
b. we will not be able to finance our debt
c. we will have an economic catastrophe
(i) we will have an event like the third world countries
C. Who Will be the Winners in this Event
1. first, I don't know
2. everyone asks about gold…
a. maybe…
(i) it's priced in dollars
(A) so it will take more dollars to buy an ounce of gold
(ii) but I'm not sure that gold has intrinsic value
(A) when you're hungry or want interest bearing assets
b. other commodities are probably more compelling
(i) food and energy
3. big winner: anyone who has fixed rate debt outstanding
a. if I buy a $500K house with a $400K mortgage
(i) devalued dollar…my house will be worth $2MM
(A) I only owe $400K
6
7. D. I Hope I'm Wrong
1. but this shapes my view of the world
2. I don't think anything is imminent by any means
a. we had several times when GM's bad news came to the forefront
(i) eventually we had the perfect storm
b. I think that the same thing will be true with us
3. I think this is very difficult to fix…
a. cut social security or medicare and consumer spending will be hit
increase taxes
(i) politicians will find a way to spend the money
(ii) hurt business in other ways
b. in sum, we're in a brutal position
4. lets move back to the happier current times
7
8. III. The Bottoming Process
A. GDP
1. the rate of decline in GDP is decreasing
a. of course, the rate of my hair loss is declining…
(i) doesn't mean I'll have a full head of hair anytime soon
2. first time in 60+ years of record keeping… GDP 1
a. that we've had 4 consecutive qtrs of shrinkage
3. a few things to notice in the GDP report GDP 2
a. sales have stopped dropping
(i) great news
b. business spending has dropped precipitously
c. gov't spending is starting to show the stimulus
(i) problem: states spending less
d. interestingly, our trade situation is improving
(i) part of that is oil dropping
(ii) interesting since trade partners weak
TRADE PARTNERS
e. the inventory adjustment has been intense INVENTORIES
(i) but, inventory to sales is still high
(A) we'll see this later
4. in sum: we're bottoming…but we've had significant loss in production
a. we're bottoming off a low base
8
9. B. Manufacturing is Turning Up -- and this is a leading indicator
ISM
1. ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers' Index)
a. weighted average of diffusion indexes for:
(i) new orders
(ii) production
(iii) supplier deliveries
(iv) inventories
(v) employment
b. with a diffusion index…
(i) ask a person if conditions better, worse or same
(A) better counts as 1
(B) same counts as .5
(C) worse counts for 0
(ii) reading above 50 shows things getting better
c. came close to hitting 50 this month
(i) widely followed and important
C. Beige Book
1. said slowing pace of decline is marked improvement
2. see signs of improvement in:
a. manufacturing
b. housing
9
10. D. Improvement in Steel Industry -- another good leading indicator
1. industry wide capacity utilization improving
a. increased from 45% to 52%
2. US Steel -- somewhat upbeat news
a. recalled 800 workers
b. restarting an idled Minnesota plant
c. said prices are firming in US and Europe
(i) expects shipments and rates to increase in Q3
d. strength coming from autos and appliances
(i) building / construction still weak
3. other steel producers reporting uptick
a. uptick in construction of roads and buildings
(i) India, Russia and Eastern Europe
b. no uptick if steel production is for construction
E. Auto Industry is Picking Up -- Cash for Clunkers Car Sales
1. 15 - 33% of volume is coming from this program
a. car dealers had highest weekly sales in two years
2. used the $1 billion in one week
a. getting approval for $2 billion more
b. of course, Germany (1/3 of our size) used $7 billion
3. GM and GMAC are also starting to provide leases again (Aug. 1)
a. 20% of new car sales
b. resale values are firming up -- crucial for residual values
10
11. F. Financial Markets Have Turned Up
1. S&P 500 S&P
2. IPO market is showing some signs of life
a. KKR is underwriting Dollar General
(i) growing from 8,362 to 8,900 stores
(A) not sure what that says…
b. four other IPOs coming soon
(i) Avago Technologies -- $540MM
(ii) Emdeon -- $333MM
(iii) Cumberland Pharmaceuticals -- $105MM
(iv) CDC Software -- $62MM
c. in July, only one IPO
3. yield on long term treasuries LT TREASURIES
a. UST yield = real rate + expected inflation
(i) shows expected growth in GDP and inflation
b. might also show reduced risk premium
(i) investors sold bonds and bought stocks
(A) selling pushes up yields
4. the yield curve is becoming more normal YIELD CURVE
a. single best predictor of economy
(i) shows growth and inflation expectations
(ii) banks borrow s/t and loan l/t
5. credit spreads are shrinking
11
12. 5. credit spreads are shrinking
a. average junk-rated bond is no longer distressed
(i) distressed is 10 points above UST
(ii) yields have dropped from 21.8% in December
(A) 12.3% in July
(1) average 10.7%
b. spread between investment grade and UST cut in half
(i) from 6% to 3% SPREADS
c. comments by Moody's Chairman and CEO
(i) Q2 results "reflect some improvement in
credit market activity"
(A) of course, same guys who
gave AAA ratings for CDOs
6. LIBOR has dropped LIBOR
a. shows banks are willing to lend to other banks
(i) part is nothing bad has happened
(ii) belief gov't won't let anything happen…
(A) after Lehman
b. LIBOR vs Fed Funds rate Ted Spread
(i) spread approaching .25%
(ii) Greenspan said this would evidence end of trouble
7. leveraged loan market has improvedLeveraged Loan Slide
8. slight signs of "animal spirits"
12
13. 8. slight signs of "animal spirits"
a. falling dollar shows risk tolerance EXCHANGE RATES
b. huge demand for leveraged ETFs
(i) we never learn!
c. demand for gold is lessening
(i) recently had friend tell me that some of his
friends were burying gold
(A) asked if I was doing that
(B) told him no
(1) I spend time trying to figure out
where your friends buried gold
IF YOU THINK OF THESE AS SIGNS OF FIN'L STRESS,
THEY SEEM TO BE GONE
DON'T FORGET: WE HAD ALL THE INGREDIENTS OF
A FIN'L STORM
1. large shifts in asset prices
a. measure stock and bond returns
2. an abrupt increase in risk / uncertainty
a. stock and currency volatility
3. abrupt shifts in liquidity
a. TED spreads
4. health of banking system
a. beta of banking sector
b. yield curve
13
14. G. Housing
1. sales of new homes rose for three consecutive months
a. increased 11% last month
b. but…sales are ~50% below 2006
2. sales of existing homes rose for three consecutive months
a. but…annual pace is 30% lower than 2006
b. talk about other problems later
3. median prices up 10% from low
4. housing starts were up in June
a. builder sentiment increased in June
(i) although still at record lows
5. Case-Shiller index rose .5% for the three month period ending May
a. first increase after 34 months CS 1 AND 2
b. home prices remained down 17% YOY
c. strongest gains were in Cleveland (4.1%)
(i) the problem is that while prices went up…
(A) you still live in Cleveland
6. conditions are right for home sales to improve
a. low mortgage rates
b. $8,000 federal income tax credit for first time buyers
c. FHA financing with 3.5% down
14
15. H. Labor Markets WEEKLY INSURANCE
1. monthly average of weekly initial unemployment insurance claims
a. seen as best single indicator
b. number of US workers filing new claims rose last week, but well below peak
(i) rose by 25,000 to 584,000
(ii) four week average is 559,000
(A) lowest level since January 24
(iii) continuing claims fell by 54K to 6.197MM
(A) lowest since April 11
c. again, we've bottomed…
(i) but the labor market is sick right now
15
16. I. Other
1. Leading Economic Indicators has turned up
a. interest rate spread LEI
b. building permits
c. stock prices
d. weekly initial claims (inverted)
e. average weekly manufacturing hours
f. index of supplier deliveres
g. manufacturers new orders for consumer goods
h. real money supply
i. manufactueres new orders for nondefense capital goods
j. index of consumer expectations
2. 3 month moving average of ADS Business Conditions Index
ADS
a. weekly initial jobless claims
b. monthly payroll employment
c. industrial production
d. personal income
e. manufacturing and trade sales
f. qtrly real GDP
avg weight is zero
in last two recessions, never dropped below -2
3. 3 month moving average of Chicago Fed's National Activity index
CHICAGO
a. weighted average of 85 monthly indicators
(i) national economic activity
b. average value of zero
(i) standard deviation of one
16
17. 4. microchip manufacturers say they've bottomed
5. dry shipping rates
a. Baltic Dry Index
(i) dropped 94% from peak to 22 year low in December
(ii) up five fold since then
(A) much of this is China and iron ore
6. copper has turned up -- 17% increase in last three weeks of July
a. demand from China
b. still no demand from US housing market
Final Thoughts on "Bottom" or Trough
a. doesn't mean we're out of recession
(i) means things have stopped getting worse
(A) rate of change has slowed
b. realize that going from losing 700K jobs to 500K is improvement
(i) but we're not growing
c. because we're in such a deep recession…
(i) the time gap to actual growth will be longer than normal
17
18. A. Consumer spending (70% of GDP) is unlikely to have a rapid recovery.
1. consumer confidence is weak
a. Conference Board consumer confidence
(i) fell from 49.3 in June to 46.6 in July
(ii) 60% expect high unemployment to persist
b. University of Michigan survey also turned down
Sentiment
2. consumers continue to "trade down"
a. Grocery stores that have not lowered prices are getting killed
(i) Supervalue earnings dropped 30%
(A) customers won't buy undiscounted foods
(ii) Stop&Shop and Giant-Landover have seen increase in sales
(A) aggressively reduced prices
(iii) now, 1 in 3 shoppers only buys items that are on sale
(A) it was 1 in 6 eighteen months ago
b. Luxury retailer Coach is buying lower cost handbags
(i) CEO Lew Frankfort believes that consumer spending
won't return to pre-recession levels
3. securitization has dropped precipitously
18
19. 4. individuals feel the need to save SAVING
a. we've wanted people to save for a long time
(i) but this has been our growth engine
(ii) is this a long term change?
5. individuals are borrowing less CONSUMER CREDIT
a. hard to know if this is:
(i) consumer decision
(ii) bank choice
b. maybe shows that they are just relying on credit less
deleveraging
19
20. B. Business spending will be slow to recover.
1. capital expenditures are declining Cap Ex
a. earnings are down
b. sales are dropping
c. businesses are pessimistic about future
2. real interest rates are high Real Rates
3. we've seen inventory drawdown… Inventory to Sales
a. but it might take a long time before
b. there is need to build up again
4. if consumer is weak and businesses are weak, how
strong will the recovery be?
20
21. C. The housing marke is far from healthy.
1. approximately 21.9% of homeowners are under water
a. 17.6% under water at end of Q4
b. a significant percentage of these will default
c. this will push prices down further
d. people forget the importance of housing…
(i) largest investment for most people
(ii) when you have 20% equity and prices drop 20%
(A) you've lost everything
e. mortgage rates could be headed up (if believe thesis) Mortg rate
(i) fewer buyers will qualify
(ii) more expensive to refinance
2. home foreclosure prevention program isn't working
a. hope to help 3 - 4 million
(i) 200,000 have rec'd trial modification
b. must have liquid reserves of less than 3 months of mortgage pmts
(i) and a few hundred dollars or les at end of month
c. multiple problems
(i) some people are being told they must fall behind first
(ii) others are having to wait too long
(iii) home equity loans often owned by different party than mortgage
(iv) no help for option-ARMs
(v) huge incentives for mortgage servicers
21
22. 3. June's 11% surge in new home sales was misleading
New Home Sales
a. sales often have big jumps in June
b. better comparison: down 21% from last June
c. the 36,000 units sold in June is the lowest June total since 1982
d. high sales resulted from discounting
(i) 12% lower than last year
(ii) lowest June price since 2003
4. existing home sales were also misleading
a. fewer home sales in March through May were distressed
(i) 33% of May sales
(ii) 31% of June sales
(iii) down from 50% earlier this year
(A) banks' moratorium on foreclosures ended in March
b. distressed = foreclosure or short sale
5. there is a huge inventory overhang Home Inventory
a. many homeowners want to sell…
(i) but have not put house on market
(ii) more homes are being rented Rent
b. tremendous increase in vacant homes for sale Vacant
22
23. D. Commercial Real Estate
1. commercial property prices are down 35% since October 2007
2. estimates are for defaults and late payments on CMBS to reach 7% this year
a. occupancies are dropping
b. rents are falling
c. there is no ability to refinance
3. defaults and delinquencies were 2.99% in Q2
a. increase from 1.8% in Q1
b. .66% one year ago
4. CMBS market is $700 billion
a. 22% of nation's $3.4 trillion of commercial real estate debt
5. loans made in 2005 and 2006 have the highest amount of problems
a. loans were made at peak
6. $1.3 trillion of properties bought or refinanced 2004 or later are
worth less than loan
7. market is pretty much locked right now…
a. buyers want fully occupied properties
b. sellers only want to sell distressed properties
23
24. E. We're seeing signs of weakness in the Treasury market.
1. issuing huge amounts of debt
a. last week, we issued $200 billion of debt
(i) through July, issued $1.15 trillion
(A) $434 billion (2008)
(B) $350 billion (2007)
2. need foreign governments to support auctions
a. can only sell short term debt
b. we've seen large indirect bids in a few auctions (7 yr last week)
(i) strikes me as a coordinated effort
(A) to eliminate fear
3. China continues to jawbone about the deficit and the value of the dollar
a. 2/3 of their $2 trillion of reserves are in dollar denominated assets
(i) including more than $800 billion in Treasuries
b. China (and others) may stop buying our debt
4. hard to find buyers when there is stock market rally
a. easier to sell Treasuries when people are risk averse
24
25. 5. Treasury debt had poor demand last week
a. sold record $39 billion in five year notes on Wednesday
(i) on heels of $42 billion of two year notes on Tuesday
(A) both had less demand than normal
(ii) five year yields increased from 2.63 to 2.70
b. foreign gov'ts are passing on long term debt
(i) this tells you something
(ii) indirect bids were 36.7% of five year note
(A) near typical average of last year
(B) but far below 62.8% of last five year note
(C ) five year auction was horrible
(iii) China seems to not be participating in auctions
(iv) coverage
(A) 2.75 for two year
(B) 1.92 for five year
(v) strong interest in $28 billion of 7 yr notes (Thursday)
(A) indirect bids came in strong…interesting
6. our borrowing costs are going to increase
a. will increase our deficit more…
25
26. F. We face great uncertainty with inflation / deflation.
1. Tremendous increase in the monetary base Monetary Base
a. since Aug. 2008, monetary base has more than doubled
(i) to $1.7 trillion
b. could expand more as Fed buys UST and MBS
(i) trying to stop expansion of money supply…
(A) by paying interest on reserves
(B) may let Fed issue debt
a. Our ability to control inflation is untested.
(i) we are in unchartered territory
2. can you imagine the pressure Bernanke will face when he tries to raise rates
3. the factors that drove dis-inflation are disappearing
a. inflation expectations have increased and could jump
(i) there is a plausible story that could catch a lot of press
b. deregulation is going away
c. good monetary policy and confidence in this policy
26
27. 4. a few thoughts on inflation
a. when labor markets recover, higher level employees will do everything
(i) higher level employees will do everything they can…
(A) to recover lost wealth
b. a shock to the value of the dollar
(i) could increase importance of exchange rates…
(A) as iport prices rise
c. inflation expectations could quickly changeExpec 1 and 2
(i) we could see a quick change in the pace of price increases
d. protectionism could diminish our ability to import from low-cost countries
e. fiscal policy has lost all restraint Fiscal Policy
f. we thought that we understood the economy better than we actually did
5. bottom line:
a. we've seen what happens with deflation…see the housing market
a. the housing market
b. if we have inflation
a. Fed will need to slow economy
c. because of combination of factors:
a. deep recession
b. huge increase in monetary base
…we have much more variability in process
that means we have more risk
27.1
28. G. The Fed is losing its independence and this creates great risk for monetary policy
1. Bernanke spends half of his days testifying
2. Congress suggesting GAO audit of monetary policy
3. uncertainty over whether Bernanke will be reappointed
a. can we stand more uncertainty
b. does this mean we have no choice
4. Fed's enhanced regulatory responsibilities…
may take away from monetary policy
per Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser
5. tremendous political pressure when Fed tries to raise rates
28
29. H. Markets seem to be euphoric right now…how long can it last?
1. stock market is up 40% from its bottom
a. we're not going to get another 40%
b. Companies are beating expectations simply by cutting costs
(i) 82% have beaten estimates
(ii) only 50% have beaten sales targets
(A) need sales to increase to grow again
2. we're seeing rampant speculation
a. Leveraged ETFs account for roughly 5% of US equity volume
3. emerging markets may be re-bubbling
a. investors put $35.5 billion in emerging mkt stock funds in 1H
b. investors withdrew $61 billion from developed markets in 1H
c. MSCI Barra Emerging Markets index +45% in first 7 months
(i) Shanghai Composite Index is up 85%
29
30. 4. distrust of markets
a. algorithmic trading and flash trading
(i) Sen. Schumer told SEC to stop this
b. CFTC issued a report saying speculators played big role in oil price swings
(i) oil indexes have $300 billion in July 2008
(A) 4X what they had in 2006
(ii) CFTC Chairman says we need to seriously consider strict limits
on energy traders
c. SEC is going to start protecting against short sales by posting
data from prior month!
5. muni market is in for more pain
a. Ambac's bond insurance unit was dropped from BBB to CC
(i) significant deterioration in the company's insured portfolio of RMBS
b. states are having budget problems
(i) at least 10 states are projecting budget gaps of more than $3 billion
(A) on top of $139.2 billion in shortfalls from before July 1
(B) California has $24 billion shortfall
(ii) other examples
(A) Pennsylvania going without paycheck
(B) Georgia mowing less
(C ) Arizona is selling House and Senate buildings
(1) at least now it's in the open…
(iii) going to see some large tax increases
30
31. I. The employment situation is horrible and it's worsening!
1. the unemployment rate has increased to 9.5% Unemployment Rate
a. jobless rates in 372 metropolitan areas rose from a year ago
b. 18 had rates of at least 15%
employers have been cutting 500K jobs per month this year
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
2. we are headed well over 10% Unemp and Job Openings
a. we're losing 400K jobs per month
b. need 100K - 200K jobs per month
c. average weekly job hours is at all-time low Avg Weekly Job Hours
3. the more inclusive unemployment rate is close to 17%
a. include people who have accepted p/t work
b. include people who are too discouraged to look
Discouraged Workers
31
32. 4. we could have a jobless recovery
a. Bernanke says 1% growth expected in 2H of 2009
(i) said that wouldn't bring down unemployment
b. it's going to take a lot to get people back to work
(i) job losses have been much steeper than prior recessions
(ii) paychecks more important when consumers won't take on more debt
(iii) as the workforce grows 1% per year and productivity grows 2%...
we need 3% to maintain employment
c. tremendous number of people in total pain Duration
5. With unemployment increasing 5%, how could the economy not slow
6. there is a possibility of a nasty feedback loop…
a. further sales drops…
(i) could lead to more job cuts…
(A) could lead to more losses on consumer debt…
32
33. J. Banks are not helping the recovery.
Background
banks are incredibly procyclical
overextend balance sheets based on higher asset values
reducing perceived risk
fostering more lending
then deleveraging starts
banks reduce lending as bank capital falls
prompts slowdown
1. Recessions are more severe when preceded by financial distress
a. economic output loss tends to be 2x - 3x greater
b. recovery takes 2x - 4x as long
Other factors make the risk greater
1. how much home prices appreciated prior to crisis
a. individuals more exposed to decrease in asset price
b. lack of credit results in home prices dropping
2. aggregate credit rise prior to crisis
a. greater reliance on external financing creates risk
b. firms and individuals more dependent on external financing
(i) see large change in spending
33
34. 2. Industrialized nations have provided less than half the support…
a. that they pledged to prop up fin'l sector (per IMF)
(i) injected $425 billion
(A) 42.3% of promise
(ii) spent $333 billion to purchase assets
(A) 18.4% of announced amount
3. banks are not lending C&I Loans
a. total loans held by 15 largest banks shrank 2.8% in Q2
(i) hold 47% of federally insured deposits
(ii) received $182.5 billion in TARP money
(iii) had $4.2 trillion of loans
(A) down from $4.3 trillion
b. more than half loan volume in April and May was:
(i) refinancing mortgages
(ii) refinancing businesses
(iii) not new loans
c. banks are preserving capital for losses
d. loan demand is also falling
(i) companies eliminating expansion plans
(ii) consumers trim spending
e. Beige book indicated banks are continuing to tighten lending standards
Fed Loan Survey
34
35. 4. bank earnings are being subsidized right now
a. saving $24 billion in borrowing costs (on $238 billion of debt)
(i) FDIC's Term Liquidity Guarantee Program
b. eight largest saved $2.2 billion in Q2
(i) C saved $600MM
(A) on $44.6 B in debt
(B) 14% of Q2 profits
(ii) GS saved $205.5MM
(A) why are we subsidizing company that is able to
(B) pay $11B of bonus in 1H
(C ) in total will save $754MM
(iii) JPM $3.1 billion ($246MM / qtr)
(iv) FDIC has collected $6.9 billion in fees
5. Too big to fail has led to even bigger banks (and more risk)
a. BAC
b. WFC 6,668 branches after taking over Wachovia
c. JPM has 5,100 branches after taking over WM
6. US credit card bad debt is rising faster than unemployment
CC Delinquencies
a. annualized write-offs of securitized credit card debt
hit record 10.8% in June
(i) Moody's expects it to hit 12% - 13% in mid-2010
b. chart includes, AMEX, BAC, C, Capital One, Chase and Discover
(i) increased savings, less spending probably explains downturn
35
36. 7. Leveraged loan index is slightly higher than right before Lehman collapsed
a. but huge disparity
(i) BB- or higher has risen 2% during this period
(ii) CCC loans are off 22%
b. B and CCC loans have had best return this year -- up 65%
36
37. 8. long term disparity in wealth and income has led to anger towards banks
a. Senate panel has subpoenad fin'l institutions
(i) looking for fraud in mortgage meltdown
(ii) did they express private doubts
b. House voted to allow regulators…
(i) to bar banks from offering executive compensation…
(A) that encourages too much risk
c. Cuomo -- huge bonuses to TARP recipients
(i) many paid out more than their profits for year
(ii) GS earned $2.3 billion and paid out $4.8 billion
(A) $10 billion in TARP
(B) 212 people got more than $3 million
(iii) JPM had 1,626 people get $1MM
(iv) Nine banks that received gov't aid paid out $33 billion in bonuses.
(A) more than 5,000 people received $1MM
(B) $33 billion is 1/3 larger than California's budget deficit
(C ) six of the nine banks paid out more in bonues than they earned in profit
(D) one in every 270 employees received $1MM
(1)what risk are they taking?
(E) compensation and benefits at the bank fell 11%
(F) the nine firms lost $100 billion
(G) gov't injected $175 billion into these banks
(v) bonus furor continues
(A) GS has set aside $11 billion and MS $6 billion
(B) MS lost money for the 3rd straight quarter
(C ) C has Andrew Hall -- $100MM
37
38. 9. Fannie and Freddie are unlikely to be able to repay gov't in full
a. gov't agreed to pump $200 billion into each
b. used these entities to institute programs
c. Fannie and Freddie guarantee $5.4 trillion of mortgages
Remember: tight credit markets cut both ways for factors:
they can't get funding
businesses need factors
38
39. K. There is growing frustration with government plans.
1. regulation is becoming excessive
a. pay czar is perfect example
(i) seven banks and industrial companies must…
(A) submit proposals for compensation packages
(B) C, BAC, AIG, GM, Chrysler, Chrysler Fin'l, GMAC
(ii) Kenneth Feinberg oversees comp of top 100 employees
(iii) will it be hard to lure talent
(A) can't limit comp at some companies and not others
(iv) if someone has a contract that overpays them this year…
(A) it will be subtracted next year
(1) we'll see massive outflow
(v) bonuses can be no more than 1/3 of total compensation
(A) and payable only in preferred stock
(1) per TARP
2. public is questioning the stimulus plan (and the government)
a. GDP numbers are crucial
b. it takes longer than a few weeks to put together an $800 billion plan
(i) the Administration says spending is by definition stimulative
(ii) so is flying over the country and randomly dropping $800 billion
39
40. 3. Cash for Clunkers is a temporary effect
referring to buying Amer cars
a. we allocated $1 billion and it was gone in a week
(i) on the average car, we're saying 20% off
b. may simply be speeding up purchases
(i) program ends November 1
c. typical government program
(i) 136 page instruction manual
d. good example of unintended consequences
(i) junkyards not prepared for all of these cars
40
41. 4. more spending in future -- healthcare
a. proposals:
(i) tax most expensive policies worth more than $25K
(A) is demand inelastic
(B) will this not be passed on
(C ) idea is to save $180 billion
(ii) surtax on wealthiest
(A) House -- tax anyone making more than $350K
(B) Obama -- $1MM
b. there's no question we have a problem:
(i) 71% of Americans employed by private industry had
access to employer sponsored health benefits
(ii) just 25% of the people in the lowest 10% of wages have insurance
c. 42% think Obama's health care plan is a bad idea
(i) 36% think it's a good idea
(ii) numbers were even -- one month ago
(iii) people with private insurance really dislike the idea
d. healthcare will cost $1 trillion over next 10 years
but we can't afford what we've already promised
e. some of my favorite things about the healthcare debate:
(i) one proposal says can't charge older people more
(A) should life insurance cost the same
(ii) while insurers would get many new customers, they don't want public competition
scares the hell out of me when you're afraid to compete with the gov't
f. companies will have to put 8% of payroll towards health insurance
(i) I'd rather hire a star than two people
(ii) 46 million people are uninsured
g. GS execs have $40K health plans -- taxing high priced health insurance
is known as the GS tax
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42. 5. BUT DON'T WORRY…
cabinet found $102MM of savings
.006% of deficit
double sided photocopying
not repainting vehicles
delete unused email accounts
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