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1
Engineering Economic
Decisions
Lecture No.1
Professor C. S. Park
Fundamentals of Engineering Economics
Copyright © 2005
2
Chapter 1
Engineering Economic Decisions
 Rational Decision- making
Process
 The Engineer’s Role in
Business
 Types of Strategic
Engineering Economic
Decisions
 Fundamental Principles in
Engineering Economics
Bose Corporation
3
Chapter Opening Story - Bose
Corporation
 Dr. Amar Bose, a graduate of electrical engineering,
an MIT professor, and Chairman of Bose
Corporation.
 He invented a directional home speaker system that
reproduces the concert experience.
 He formed Bose Corporation in 1964 and became
the world’s No.1 speaker maker.
 He became the 288th
wealthiest American in 2002 by
Forbes magazine.
4
Engineering Economics
Overview
• Rational Decision-Making Process
• Economic Decisions
• Predicting Future
• Role of Engineers in Business
• Large-scale engineering projects
• Types of strategic engineering economic
decisions
5
Rational Decision-Making Process
1. Recognize a decision
problem
2. Define the goals or
objectives
3. Collect all the relevant
information
4. Identify a set of feasible
decision alternatives
5. Select the decision criterion
to use
6. Select the best alternative
6
Which Car to Lease?
Saturn vs. Honda
1. Recognize a decision
problem
2. Define the goals or
objectives
3. Collect all the relevant
information
4. Identify a set of feasible
decision alternatives
5. Select the decision
criterion to use
6. Select the best alternative
 Need a car
 Want mechanical
security
 Gather technical as well
as financial data
 Choose between
Saturn and Honda
 Want minimum total
cash outlay
 Select Honda
7
Financial Data Required to Make an Economic
Decision
8
Engineering Economic Decisions
Planning Investment
Marketing
ProfitManufacturing
9
Predicting the Future
 Estimating a Required
investment
 Forecasting a product
demand
 Estimating a selling
price
 Estimating a
manufacturing cost
 Estimating a product
life
10
Create & Design
• Engineering Projects
Evaluate
• Expected
Profitability
• Timing of
Cash Flows
• Degree of
Financial Risk
Analyze
• Production Methods
• Engineering Safety
• Environmental Impacts
• Market Assessment
Evaluate
• Impact on
Financial Statements
• Firm’s Market Value
• Stock Price
Role of Engineers in Business
11
Present
FuturePast
Engineering EconomyAccounting
Evaluating past performance Evaluating and predicting future events
Accounting Vs. Engineering Ecom.
12
Two Factors in Engineering
Economic Decisions
The factors of time and uncertainty
are the defining aspects of any
engineering economic decisions
13
A Large-Scale Engineering Project
 Requires a large sum
of investment
 Takes a long time to
see the financial
outcomes
 Difficult to predict the
revenue and cost
streams
(Remember Cash flow
discussed earlier)
14
Types of Strategic Engineering
Economic Decisions in Manufacturing
Sector
 Service Improvement
 Equipment and Process Selection
 Equipment Replacement
 New Product and Product Expansion
 Cost Reduction
15
Service Improvement
 How many more jeans would Levi need to sell to justify
the cost of additional robotic tailors?
16
Equipment & Process Selection
 How do you choose between the Plastic SMC
and the Steel sheet stock for an auto body
panel?
 The choice of material will dictate the
manufacturing process for an automotive
body panel as well as manufacturing costs.
17
Which Material to Choose?
18
Equipment Replacement Problem
 Now is the time to
replace the old
machine?
 If not, when is the right
time to replace the old
equipment?
19
New Product and Product Expansion
 Shall we build or
acquire a new facility to
meet the increased
demand?
 Is it worth spending
money to market a new
product?
20
Example - MACH 3 Project
 R&D investment: $750
million
 Product promotion through
advertising: $300 million
 Priced to sell at 35% higher
than Sensor Excel (about
$1.50 extra per shave).
 Question 1: Would
consumers pay $1.50 extra
for a shave with greater
smoothness and less
irritation?
 Question 2: What would
happen if the blade
consumption dropped more
than 10% due to the longer
blade life of the new razor?
Gillette’s MACH3
Project
21
Cost Reduction
 Should a company buy
equipment to perform
an operation now done
manually?
 Should spend money
now in order to save
more money later?
22
Types of Strategic Engineering Economic
Decisions in Service Sector
 Commercial Transportation
 Logistics and Distribution
 Healthcare Industry
 Electronic Markets and Auctions
 Financial Engineering
 Retails
 Hospitality and Entertainment
 Customer Service and Maintenance
23
U.S. Gross Domestic Products (GDP)
Manufacturing
(14%)
Service sector
(80%)
Healthcare (14%)
Agriculture (2%)
24
Industrial Employment
Industry 1993
Employment
distribution
1983-94
National
Average
1994-2005
Projected
Change
Manufacturing 12.6% -0.70% -7.2%
Services 30.5% 60.0% 39.0%
Retail trade 16.7% 31.1% 13.0%
Financial 8.0% 26.8% 6.3%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Bureau of Labor Statistics
25
Example - Healthcare Delivery
Which plan is more
economically viable?
 Traditional Plan: Patients
visit each service
provider.
 New Plan: Each service
provider visits patients
: patient
: service provider
26
Fundamental Principles of Engineering
Economics
 Principle 1: A nearby dollar is worth more
than a distant dollar
 Principle 2: All it counts is the differences
among alternatives
 Principle 3: Marginal revenue must exceed
marginal cost
 Principle 4: Additional risk is not taken
without the expected additional return
27
Principle 1: A nearby dollar is worth
more than a distant dollar
Today 6-month later
28
Principle 2: All it counts is the
differences among alternatives
Option Monthly
Fuel
Cost
Monthly
Maintena
nce
Cash
outlay at
signing
Monthly
payment
Salvage
Value at
end of
year 3
Buy $960 $550 $6,500 $350 $9,000
Lease $960 $550 $2,400 $550 0
Irrelevant items in decision making
29
Principle 3: Marginal revenue must
exceed marginal cost
Manufacturing cost
Sales revenue
Marginal
revenue
Marginal
cost
1 unit
1 unit
30
Principle 4: Additional risk is not
taken without the expected additional
return
Investment Class Potential
Risk
Expected
Return
Savings account
(cash)
Low/None 1.5%
Bond (debt) Moderate 4.8%
Stock (equity) High 11.5%
31
Summary
 The term engineering economic decision
refers to all investment decisions relating to
engineering projects.
 The five main types of engineering economic
decisions are (1) service improvement, (2)
equipment and process selection, (3)
equipment replacement, (4) new product and
product expansion, and (5) cost reduction.
 The factors of time and uncertainty are the
defining aspects of any investment project.

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Lecture no1

  • 1. 1 Engineering Economic Decisions Lecture No.1 Professor C. S. Park Fundamentals of Engineering Economics Copyright © 2005
  • 2. 2 Chapter 1 Engineering Economic Decisions  Rational Decision- making Process  The Engineer’s Role in Business  Types of Strategic Engineering Economic Decisions  Fundamental Principles in Engineering Economics Bose Corporation
  • 3. 3 Chapter Opening Story - Bose Corporation  Dr. Amar Bose, a graduate of electrical engineering, an MIT professor, and Chairman of Bose Corporation.  He invented a directional home speaker system that reproduces the concert experience.  He formed Bose Corporation in 1964 and became the world’s No.1 speaker maker.  He became the 288th wealthiest American in 2002 by Forbes magazine.
  • 4. 4 Engineering Economics Overview • Rational Decision-Making Process • Economic Decisions • Predicting Future • Role of Engineers in Business • Large-scale engineering projects • Types of strategic engineering economic decisions
  • 5. 5 Rational Decision-Making Process 1. Recognize a decision problem 2. Define the goals or objectives 3. Collect all the relevant information 4. Identify a set of feasible decision alternatives 5. Select the decision criterion to use 6. Select the best alternative
  • 6. 6 Which Car to Lease? Saturn vs. Honda 1. Recognize a decision problem 2. Define the goals or objectives 3. Collect all the relevant information 4. Identify a set of feasible decision alternatives 5. Select the decision criterion to use 6. Select the best alternative  Need a car  Want mechanical security  Gather technical as well as financial data  Choose between Saturn and Honda  Want minimum total cash outlay  Select Honda
  • 7. 7 Financial Data Required to Make an Economic Decision
  • 8. 8 Engineering Economic Decisions Planning Investment Marketing ProfitManufacturing
  • 9. 9 Predicting the Future  Estimating a Required investment  Forecasting a product demand  Estimating a selling price  Estimating a manufacturing cost  Estimating a product life
  • 10. 10 Create & Design • Engineering Projects Evaluate • Expected Profitability • Timing of Cash Flows • Degree of Financial Risk Analyze • Production Methods • Engineering Safety • Environmental Impacts • Market Assessment Evaluate • Impact on Financial Statements • Firm’s Market Value • Stock Price Role of Engineers in Business
  • 11. 11 Present FuturePast Engineering EconomyAccounting Evaluating past performance Evaluating and predicting future events Accounting Vs. Engineering Ecom.
  • 12. 12 Two Factors in Engineering Economic Decisions The factors of time and uncertainty are the defining aspects of any engineering economic decisions
  • 13. 13 A Large-Scale Engineering Project  Requires a large sum of investment  Takes a long time to see the financial outcomes  Difficult to predict the revenue and cost streams (Remember Cash flow discussed earlier)
  • 14. 14 Types of Strategic Engineering Economic Decisions in Manufacturing Sector  Service Improvement  Equipment and Process Selection  Equipment Replacement  New Product and Product Expansion  Cost Reduction
  • 15. 15 Service Improvement  How many more jeans would Levi need to sell to justify the cost of additional robotic tailors?
  • 16. 16 Equipment & Process Selection  How do you choose between the Plastic SMC and the Steel sheet stock for an auto body panel?  The choice of material will dictate the manufacturing process for an automotive body panel as well as manufacturing costs.
  • 18. 18 Equipment Replacement Problem  Now is the time to replace the old machine?  If not, when is the right time to replace the old equipment?
  • 19. 19 New Product and Product Expansion  Shall we build or acquire a new facility to meet the increased demand?  Is it worth spending money to market a new product?
  • 20. 20 Example - MACH 3 Project  R&D investment: $750 million  Product promotion through advertising: $300 million  Priced to sell at 35% higher than Sensor Excel (about $1.50 extra per shave).  Question 1: Would consumers pay $1.50 extra for a shave with greater smoothness and less irritation?  Question 2: What would happen if the blade consumption dropped more than 10% due to the longer blade life of the new razor? Gillette’s MACH3 Project
  • 21. 21 Cost Reduction  Should a company buy equipment to perform an operation now done manually?  Should spend money now in order to save more money later?
  • 22. 22 Types of Strategic Engineering Economic Decisions in Service Sector  Commercial Transportation  Logistics and Distribution  Healthcare Industry  Electronic Markets and Auctions  Financial Engineering  Retails  Hospitality and Entertainment  Customer Service and Maintenance
  • 23. 23 U.S. Gross Domestic Products (GDP) Manufacturing (14%) Service sector (80%) Healthcare (14%) Agriculture (2%)
  • 24. 24 Industrial Employment Industry 1993 Employment distribution 1983-94 National Average 1994-2005 Projected Change Manufacturing 12.6% -0.70% -7.2% Services 30.5% 60.0% 39.0% Retail trade 16.7% 31.1% 13.0% Financial 8.0% 26.8% 6.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 25. 25 Example - Healthcare Delivery Which plan is more economically viable?  Traditional Plan: Patients visit each service provider.  New Plan: Each service provider visits patients : patient : service provider
  • 26. 26 Fundamental Principles of Engineering Economics  Principle 1: A nearby dollar is worth more than a distant dollar  Principle 2: All it counts is the differences among alternatives  Principle 3: Marginal revenue must exceed marginal cost  Principle 4: Additional risk is not taken without the expected additional return
  • 27. 27 Principle 1: A nearby dollar is worth more than a distant dollar Today 6-month later
  • 28. 28 Principle 2: All it counts is the differences among alternatives Option Monthly Fuel Cost Monthly Maintena nce Cash outlay at signing Monthly payment Salvage Value at end of year 3 Buy $960 $550 $6,500 $350 $9,000 Lease $960 $550 $2,400 $550 0 Irrelevant items in decision making
  • 29. 29 Principle 3: Marginal revenue must exceed marginal cost Manufacturing cost Sales revenue Marginal revenue Marginal cost 1 unit 1 unit
  • 30. 30 Principle 4: Additional risk is not taken without the expected additional return Investment Class Potential Risk Expected Return Savings account (cash) Low/None 1.5% Bond (debt) Moderate 4.8% Stock (equity) High 11.5%
  • 31. 31 Summary  The term engineering economic decision refers to all investment decisions relating to engineering projects.  The five main types of engineering economic decisions are (1) service improvement, (2) equipment and process selection, (3) equipment replacement, (4) new product and product expansion, and (5) cost reduction.  The factors of time and uncertainty are the defining aspects of any investment project.