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Lecture 4a
- 1. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 01 © Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook TOYOTA KATA PDCA toward the Target Condition
- 2. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 02 NOW THAT YOU HAVE A TARGET CONDITION, HOW DO YOU GET THERE? How to reach your goals when you cannot see the road ahead?
- 3. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 03 The IK PREDICTION for the Experiment ACTION Conduct the IK experiment EVALUATE Standardize or Adjust based on your learning EVIDENCE Collect facts and data resulting from the IK experiment THE DEMING CYCLE "Plan-Do-Check-Act" or "Plan-Do-Study-Act" Dr. W. Edwards Deming “It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.”
- 4. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 04 Iterating toward the Target Condition with PDCA Small, rapid PDCAs advance our knowledge threshold quickly so we can see obstacles to the Target Condition Current Condition Target Condition First, you must accept the path is unclear Some steps will not make measureable improvement. Some steps will move away or to the side on the way to the TC. Failed PDCAs or ones that don’t yield immediate improvement can be some of your biggest learnings
- 5. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 05 © Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook Iterate Toward the Target Condition WHATʼS THE THRESHOLD OF KNOWLEDGE (TOK)? It is the point at which you have no facts & data and start guessing Thereʼs always a knowledge threshold, and itʼs closer than you think! You never know for sure how you are going to get there until you get there. Uncertainty / Learning Zone Next Target Condition Current Knowledge Threshold ? ? ? Condition Now Where you want to be next Where you are Limit of what you currently know The Goal
- 6. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 6 Since the path to a challenging goal canʼt be predicted with exactness, we have to find that path by experimenting like a scientist. With each step and insight a scientist may adjust his or her thinking based on what has just been learned. The scientific process canʼt tell us what's ahead. It only confirms or refutes the results of experiments. A trick to making effective progress toward a challenging target condition is not to try to decide the way forward, but to iterate your way forward by experimenting as cheaply and rapidly as possible. This is the action of innovation. SCIENTIFIC THINKING MEANS LEARNING ALONG THE WAY TO THE TARGET CONDITION Objective and certain: “We have made the right plan” Always provisional: “Our plan is a hypothesis” What we may think scientific thinking is What scientific thinking really is © Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook Iterate Toward the Target Condition 6
- 7. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 7 PDCA EXPERIMENTATION IS NOT ABOUT YOU DEVELOPING A PLAN, AND THEN EXECUTING ON THAT PLAN TO PUT YOUR PREDETERMINED IDEAS IN PLACE AS SOLUTIONS PDCA EXPERIMENTATION IS ABOUT YOU TAKING STEPS JUST BEYOND YOUR KNOWLEDGE THRESHOLD AND OUTSIDE YOUR “ZONE OF CERTAINTY” TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE PROCESS BETTER AND IDENTIFY OBSTACLES. THE STEPS YOU TAKE ARE THE LEARNING GOALS YOU EXPERIENCE AS YOU ITERATE YOUR WAY TO THE TARGET CONDITION
- 8. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 8 'SURPRISE' IS HOW PDCA HELPS YOU LEARN AND IMPROVE Learning happens when reality differs from expectation Unexpected results (surprises) lead to valuable learning experiences. The Improvement Kata mindset seeks to use these lessons. A. The purpose of PDCA is to generate surprises and thus opportunities for learning & progress toward the target condition. B. Using small failures as learning opportunities also develops the improvement expertise of the learner. PDCA Cycles Scenario 2 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, ______ ? Write down the next two numbers in this series. Then click. How do you feel? Scenario 1 Write the Sum of a 3 dice roll______? Roll them and see if your sum was correct -2, -4 How do you feel?....Not so bad, it’s just chance Hey! © Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook
- 9. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 9 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SCENARIOS How easy or hard it is to spot the Current Knowledge Threshold • In Round 1 with the dice, it was easy to see that we didn’t know what the outcome would be. • In Round 2 the knowledge threshold was more difficult to see. We thought we knew the answer, so we went over the threshold & answered. Ø What would be a good answer in both rounds? Ø Why don’t we say that? Yet in both rounds the knowledge threshold was the same: There were no facts beyond the initial setup Predictable Zone Current Knowledge Threshold 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, © Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook Iterate Toward the Target Condition
- 10. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 10 VIDEO: Scientific thinking (3 minutes)
- 11. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 11 WHAT SHOULD YOU DO AT THE THRESHOLD OF KNOWLEDGE? 1) Acknowledge it. (Difficult to do, until you get in the habit.) Key realization: Thereʼs always a threshold of knowledge. 2) Stop and see further by conducting an experiment. Donʼt deliberate over answers. Deliberate over the next experiment: What do we need to learn next, how will we test that and how will we measure it? The path canʼt be determined in advance through logic and debate Uncertainty / Learning Zone Next Target Condition Current Knowledge Threshold ? ? ? Condition Now © Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook Iterate Toward the Target Condition Where you want to be next
- 12. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 12 Scientific thinking is the process you go through to disprove your theory and hypothesis. You should think of ways to refute what you believe to be true. When your results (evidence) differ from your expectations (predictions) real learning happens – this is called prediction error, and is necessary to advance our exploration. If you set out to disprove your theories, then you cannot, then and only then, can you say “we must be getting at something really true!” If your simply confirming what you already know or think to be true, you are engaging in prediction confirmation. However, in traditional problem solving thinking, we do the opposite. We set out to prove our perceptions of reality are true. This stifles the innovation process. We analyze the process attempting to determine the root cause of where it breaks down, and then FIX IT!, and move on. But the law of entropy states that any system will deteriorate over time. It’s the process of constantly striving for the Target Condition, reaching it, and then establishing where we want to be next (i.e. the next Target Condition) that fights entropy and fuels sustainment. SO WHAT DOES SCIENTIFIC THINKING MEAN? Prediction Confirmation = little learning
- 13. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 13 Learning through refuted hypotheses
- 14. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 14 THREE KINDS OF KATA PDCA EXPERIMENTS PDCA Cycles The following hierarchy goes from less to more scientific 1) Go and See Direct observation and data collection, without changing anything, to learn more about a process or situation. 2) Exploratory Experiment Introducing a change in a process to see, via direct observation, how the process reacts. Done to help better understand the process. Example: Try to run a process as specified in the target condition, to see where it fails and build your obstacles parking lot. Often this is the first experiment. 3) Testing a Hypothesis Introducing a change, ideally in only a single factor, together with a prediction of what you expect to happen. “If the result confirms the hypothesis, then you've made a measurement. If the result is contrary to the hypothesis, then you've made a discovery.” ~ Enrico Fermi © Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook
- 15. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 15 The Power of Rapid PDCAs Time CapEx Project Management Kaizen (KZ) episodic improvement KZ1 KZ2 KZ3 KZ4 TC 4 c Diagram contributed by Bill Kraus, animated by Brandon Brown TC 3 TC 2 TC 1 Unsustainable improvement routine
- 16. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 16 VIDEO 2: Working Iteratively (3 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0_yKBitO8M Also available on the IK/CK YouTube Channel
- 17. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 17 The underlying emotion that keeps us from iterating to a solution In the last video about the Marshmallow challenge what two emotions and psychological thinking do you think the business school graduates possess that the kindergarten graduates do not possess? FEAR!....Fear of failing doesn’t enter into our psyche through childhood. Fear of failing is brought on through years of psychological pressures placed on us by others…Parents, Teachers, our Boss(es). Attitude…Work or a task = FUN!....Think back to your early childhood and the games, musical instruments, or sports activities you learned. At the core of a child’s psyche is the perspective of a work task, problem, or challenge is something to win or overcome. Most adults rarely express their work tasks, problems, or challenges with this perspective. No fear of failing and an attitude of striving toward a challenge are critical to PDCA success
- 18. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 18 HOW DO CULTURES THINK DIFFERENTLY ABOUT PROBLEM SOLVING, PREDICTION ERROR/CONFIRMATION AND PROGRESSING TOWARD THE TARGET CONDITION Lee, F., Edmondson, A., Thomke, S., & Worline, M. (2004). The mixed effects of inconsistency on experimentation in organizations. Organization Science, 15(3), 310-326. The Experiment: A rug was place over a series of buzzer alarms and different groups were asked to cross the rug without setting off buzzers in a set amount of time. Fiona Lee, PhD. Associate Professor of Management and Organizations, Michigan Ross Presentation at KataCon 1, by Dr. Jeffery Liker, 2/18/2015
- 19. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 19 RESULTS OF THE EXPERIMENT Lee, F., Edmondson, A., Thomke, S., & Worline, M. (2004). The mixed effects of inconsistency on experimentation in organizations. Organization Science, 15(3), 310-326. Presentation at KataCon 1, by Dr. Jeffery Liker, 2/18/2015, Groups from Western cultures (fearful of setting off buzzers), fail because they step across the rug, one square at a time, set off a buzzer, and then return to starting point so they can sketch where the buzzers are….And repeat until time runs out. Groups from Eastern cultures (more likely to take risks), succeed because they walk all the way across the rug, setting off buzzers while looking back at the pattern. Then return to the starting point…. And repeat until they find a path without buzzers.
- 20. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 20 1. They seldom feel disconnected from the challenge that first engaged their interest. People who love what they do never fully lose sight of the Challenge and the sense of purpose that drives them. 2. They’re remarkably well-attuned to the “early years.” Cognitive science tells us that all of us ”confabulate” memory to varying degrees (that is, our brains reconstruct memories combining shards of what actually happened with bits and pieces of imagined realities). They’ve successfully integrated elements of those passions into what they do. In effect, they’re energized kids with the seasoned perspective of adults. 3. They are “portfolio” thinkers. People want to be around people who are passionate about what they do, because it’s an infectious feeling that psychologists call “psychosocial contagions”. They are even-keeled; never to high, never too low. 4. They live in the now. The “now” for someone who loves what they do is precious, because it can disappear in a heartbeat 5. They never, ever limit their vision to serve the interests of petty competition. Stephen Covey famously said (paraphrasing), highly effective people don’t see the “pie” as having a limited number of pieces. Instead, they see a pie with pieces enough for everyone, and it doesn’t bother them to watch others get their slice. A Key Concept about PDCAs, Target Conditions and Challenges: People that love their job and are passionate about Challenges….. Citation from Forbes Magazine, “10 Reasons Why Some People Love What They Do” by David DiSalvo http://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2012/08/28/10-reasons-why-some-people-love-what-they-do
- 21. KATA © 2016 TheLeadership Network® © 2016 Jidoka® 21 6. They will stay…but just know, they’ll also leave.If a company or firm or nonprofit—whatever—ceases to provide an adequate venue for doing what they love to do (i.e. face Challenges), then it’s time to move on. 7. They won’t be stopped.When a manager says, in so many words, “this is your role in my plan, and failure to fill it will have negative consequences,” the smart person usually obliges, at least temporarily. But the passion-drive person bent on doing what they love (i.e. face Challenges) is already figuring out how to blow the walls off that plan and move on. 8. They draw people to them without even trying. John C. Maxwell ‘s Law of Magnetism says “success breads success” and “people draw to winners” 9. They don’t care what you think. People who genuinely love what they do (i.e. face Challenges) don’t allow others to talk them out of it. 10.They are born succession planners. People who love their jobs embrace succession planning wholeheartedly and actively look for others to share their passions with, in hopes that they’ll want to do that job one day as well. These folks aren’t doing this because the company handbook tells them to – they do it because they love what they do, and that passion compels them to share their knowledge and acumen with others. Citation from Forbes Magazine, “10 Reasons Why Some People Love What They Do” by David DiSalvo http://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2012/08/28/10-reasons-why-some-people-love-what-they-do A Key Concept about PDCAs, Target Conditions and Challenges: People that love their job and are passionate about Challenges…..