Presentation by Clive Bates 15:00 Saturday 24 November 2012. The presentation focuses on six 'time traps' - reasons why time complicates climate change, and suggests ten overall approaches to address the challenges.

1. Climate change and time traps …and
what to do
Disclaimer: not necessarily the
views of the government

2. Time trap 1: environmental inertia

3. IPCC emissions scenarios Modelled warming
Source: Hadley Centre

4. and by the way…
"Not only have we not
made progress, we
are actively moving in
the wrong direction,“
UNEP executive
director Achim Steiner

5. Time trap 2: infrastructure transition

7. Transition…?
Gas
Fossil
fuels
Oil
Coal
Source: IAASA Global Energy Assessment 2012 – World Primary Energy

8. Transition…
World Coal Consumption
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
MTOE
2,000
Asia & Pacific
1,500
1,000
500 Everywhere else
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012

9. Transition… the last 30 years
World Primary Energy Share by Fuel
100% Renewables
Nuclear
90% Hydro
80%
Gas
70%
60%
50%
Oil
40%
30%
20%
10% Coal
0%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 – note includes ‘commercial energy’ only

10. … transition?
World total car registrations (m)
800
Million
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: US Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book 2012 edition

11. Car use - driving infrastructure demand?
Vehicles per '000 people United States
1000
900
800
700
600
W. Europe
2010
500
400
300
200
Brazil 2010
100
India 2010 China 2010
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
With country data for 2010 superimposed
Source: US Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book 2012 edition. Specific country data for 2010

12. Time trap 3: innovation

13. Toyota hybrid sales
800
Thousands
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

14. Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid
10.0
Millions
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

15. Time trap 4: changing human behaviour

16. Smoking prevalence
All > age 16 (Britain)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

17. Time trap 5: expectations and credibility

18. Carbon price expectations
Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Carbon price floor

19. What do you believe? What would you bet?
• UK will have 15% energy
consumption from renewables by
2020?
• UK will meet 4th carbon budget
(1.95 bnTCO2 in 2023-27?)
• UK will reduce emissions by 80% by
2050 (cf 1990)?
• A post-Kyoto deal will be done by
2015 and enter force 2020?
• UK Carbon Price Floor will be
£70/tCO2 in 2030?
• Global temperatures increases will
be kept below 2 degrees?

20. Time trap 6: future expectations

21. Estimating future emissions
GDP?
Economic
Trade?
structure?
Geography? Emissions? Energy mix?
Land use? Infrastructure?
Population?

22. GDP per capita ($US)
CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)
Gapminder

23. GDP per capita ($US)
CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)

24. EU-15 Kyoto burden sharing
Target relative to base year
27% Portugal
25% Greece
15% Spain
13% Ireland
4% Sweden
0% France
0% Finland
-6% Netherlands
-6.5% Italy
-7.5% Belgium
-8% EU-15
-12.5% United Kingdom
-13% Austria
-21% Germany
-21% Denmark
-28% Luxembourg
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

25. GDP per capita ($US)
CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)

28. 100
Most important issues facing Britain
Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Pollution / environment
Q What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
90 (Unprompted - combined answers)
80 Exxon
Valdez
70
60
50
Ozone Peak concern
40 hole on climate
UK climate change
30 programme
(or GM?)
20
10
0

29. 100
Most important issues facing Britain
90
80
70 Unemployment
60 Economy
50
40
30
20
10
0

30. Part 2: What to do about it?

31. What to do 1: just stop it!

32. Stop it! The 2oC commitment…
CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C.
Developing countries
peak in 2020 and fall at
8% per year after
Developed countries
peak in 2010 and fall at
10% per year after
Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44

33. What to do 2: form clubs

34. 20 countries/blocs - 80% emissions
Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review

35. Concentration in innovation investment
Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007
100% Percentage share of global total
80
60
40
20
0
Japan China France Korea Brazil
Canada
United United India
Germany Kingdom Russia
States
Source: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data

36. What to do 3: switch to policies & measures

37. What to do 4: pricing not quantities
Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0
16.0
14.0
• Globally co-ordinated carbon tax
• Nationally collected
12.0 • Possible consumption basis
• Border taxes for non-participants
10.0
• Predictably rising
8.0 • Very long term
• No shocks
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

38. What to do 5: focus on specific problems
• Nuclear fuel cycle management
• LNG infrastructure for China
• Forest and sink protection
• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel
• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments
• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators
• Product and building energy efficiency standards
• Water trading and river basin management
• Etc etc…

39. What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’

40. What to do 7: innovation strategy
Energy storage density
Hydrogen Gasoline
Energy density by weight (watt hours / kg)
10,000 Ethanol
CNG Bio-diesel
Liquid fuels Diesel
Gaseous fuels
1,000
Hydrogen
absorbing
alloy
Batteries
100 Lithium-ion
Nickel metal
10 Lead
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre)
Source: Toyota

41. What to do 8: emphasise adaptation

42. Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation?
Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009

43. What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge

44. What to do 10: future proofing

45. Six time traps
1. Environmental response
2. Infrastructure
3. Innovation
4. Human behaviour
Thank you
5. Credible signals
6. Economic expectations
@clive_bates
What to do? Ten thoughts…
1. Stop it!
2. Clubs
3. Policies & measures
4. Global carbon price
5. Problem focus
6. No-regrets
7. Innovation
8. Adaptation
9. Geoengineering hedge
10. Future proofing