Greening Development: Inger Andersen, 7 March 2011
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Presented by Inger Andersen at the Copenhagen Sustainability Lecture "Greening development: Moving towards Rio+20 and beyond", 7 March 2011. Inger Andersen has overall responsibility for the World Bank’s work in agriculture, climate change, the environment, energy, transport, urban development, social development, and water supply and sanitation.
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Greening Development: Inger Andersen, 7 March 2011
- 1. Greening Development: Rio+ 20 and beyond
- 2. Things have changed since the early 1990s
- 3. An explosion in purchasing power– particularly in developing countries Population: +1.2 billion GDP per capita: +80% GDP: +$5.5 trillion (+130%)
- 4. Greater wealth has led to greater consumption… still dominated by rich countries 30 25 Constant 2000 $ trillion High income countries 20 Low & middle income countries 15 10 5 0 2009 1992 2009
- 5. Substantial progress on social indicators, even if much remains to be done Poverty rate ($1.25/day) 45 40 35 But 918 million people still -445 million people 30 expected to live in poverty 25 -453 million by 2015 20 people 15 10 5 0 1990 2005 2015
- 6. Much less progress on the environmental side 170 Reduced air pollution from particulates, but massive increase in GHGs…. 150 130 110 90 70 50 1993 1994 1992 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 PM10, country level CO2 emissions
- 7. Time to rethink our growth paradigm Y=F (K, L, A, E) with A=F(…E, Epol)
- 8. Trust in our ability to innovate and green at low cost EU regulation in the power EPA Dinoseb sector ban EU IPPC Directive EU Nitrates Directive EPA phase-out of leaded gas EPA SO2 Ozone reductions Depleting (Phase 1) Substances EU packaging phase-out waste Directive (Harrington et al. 2000), Oosterhuis (2006)
- 9. Green growth – a new emphasis within sustainable development
- 10. Green growth – a new emphasis within sustainable development
- 11. Why might this work now?
- 12. A rethinking of current growth paradigm Fragility and volatility…
- 13. Doubts on its ability to deliver from a social and humanitarian point of view 20 36 64 80
- 14. And even more so from an environmental point of view Rockström et al., Nature 2009
- 15. How to make it happen?
- 16. Get the prices right…. 350 300 250 200 billion $ 150 necessary, non sufficient… 100 50 0 Consumption Cost of support Subsidies to fossil to renewable fuels energy
- 18. Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability
- 19. Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability
- 20. Cities are growing fast…. Billions of people living in urban areas 4 3 2 Urban 1 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
- 21. Natural resource management transition Loess plateau- before
- 22. Natural resource management transition Loess plateau- after
- 23. Human capital transition Source: World Development Report 2010 based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics.
- 25. A green growth knowledge platform to focus our efforts around: Innovation Green Economic & Environmental Growth Efficiency Risks Platform Jobs & Poverty