Slides on the current situation with global cigarette consumption and trends, and how new nicotine products could change things. See blog at: http://www.clivebates.com/?p=2782 for more commentary.

1. Are we in the endgame for smoking?
Clive Bates
Counterfactual
www.clivebates.com

2. Global cigarette consumption - still rising
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Billionpieces
Global cigarette consumption 1980-2012
Developing countries
Developed countries

3. Number of smokers - still rising
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Millionadults
Global adult daily smokers - 1980-2012
Males
Females

4. Global cigarette consumption – linear trend
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
y = 53.203x + 2741.8
R² = 0.9669
y = -16.501x + 2437.1
R² = 0.949
y = 36.702x + 5179
R² = 0.8909
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billionpieces
Global cigarette consumption and trends - linear

5. A 2030 ‘endgame’ requires implausible declines
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billionpieces
Global cigarette consumption - phase out by 2030
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries

6. Consumption rising since 2005 but slower
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
y = 44.274x + 4035.9
y = -23.881x + 2022.7
y = 20.393x + 6058.6
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billionpieces
Global cigarette consumption and trends since 2005 - linear
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries

7. Recent increase in growth of cigarette consumption
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
-60
-40
-20
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Billionpieces
Annual change in global cigarette consumption
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries

8. Global cigarette consumption – trend to 2030
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
y = -1.0886x2 + 90.215x + 2525.9
R² = 0.9962
y = -0.3737x2 - 3.7956x + 2363
R² = 0.9843
y = -1.4623x2 + 86.419x + 4888.9
R² = 0.9932
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billionpieces
Global cigarette consumption and trends – parabolic trend
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries

9. Global cigarette consumption – trend to 2050
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA
2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Billionpieces
Global cigarette consumption and trends – parabolic trend
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries

10. Cigarette global consumption trend projection to 2030
Consumption 2010-2030 on parabolic trend projection from 1908-2012 data from Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking
prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billionpieces
Global cigarette consumption 2010-2030 - on trend
Global cigarette
consumption

11. Hypothetical introduction of new nicotine products
Consumption 2010-2030 on parabolic trend projection from 1908-2012 data from Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking
prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billionpieces
New non-combustible nicotine with high initial but declining growth
Low risk nicotine
consumption
Global cigarette
consumption

12. Hypothetical introduction of new nicotine products
Consumption 2010-2030 on parabolic trend projection from 1908-2012 data from Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking
prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billionpieces
New non-combustible nicotine with high initial but declining growth
This boundary is harder
to move. It means
reducing both smoking
and nicotine use, and
may require coercive
measures
This boundary is easier to
move. It does not require
limiting or prohibiting
nicotine use and works
through user choice.