Biological Greenhouse Gas Management Biological solutions to climate change

1. Biological Solutions
to Climate Change:
An Energy Systems Perspective
David B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC, Professor
Director, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative,
University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta
…special thanks to Chris Stone & Ralph Torrie for assistance with the Sankey Diagrams

2. Biological Systems:
Managing Global Climate for over 500 M yrs
Albedo
Sun’s
shortwave
radiation
Infra-red long
wave radiation
(low heating)
Reflected
shortwave
radiation
Snow
Deserts
Clouds
Cloudless
sky
Vegetation
(esp conifers)
Sun’s
shortwave
radiation
Reflected
shortwave
radiation
Infra-red long
wave radiation
(more heating)
Vegetation
Ocean biology
High = cooling Low = warming
CO2
GHG management
Coal Oil Nat’l Gas
C held in Dead Biomass
CH4
N2O
(Absorbs
long wave
radiation)

3. Carbon
Cycle
Photo-
synthesis
Metabolism,
Fire, Harvest
& Decay
Biosphere
C Stocks
Fossil
Fuels
CO2
Human-induced
Emissions
(N2O & CH4)
Sun
C sink
Reduce
(N2O &
CH4)
REDUCE Landfill
& Agriculture
Emissions
REMOVE
CO2 to
biosphere
Bio-based
energy, chemicals
and materials
REPLACE
fossil fuels
with biomass
Canada’s Green
Advantage

4. Biological Solutions
Potential
(Mt CO2e/yr)
1. N2O and CH4
emission reductions
N2O, CH4
Up to 40
Problem
(Mt CO2e/yr)
Landfills: -22
Crops/Soils: -30
Animals: -24
Wetlands: -3
-79
Example
Strategies
Improved
landfill, manure, fertili
zer, wetland & animal
prod’n mgmt/technol.
2. Soil
carbon sinks:
Up to 30+ ?
+8
 Reduced tillage,
 New Crops
 Biochar
 Pasture mgmt
3. Forest
carbon sinks
Up to 70+ ?
-99 to +88
 Improved
silvaculture, pest &
fire control
 New genotypes

5. Biological Solutions
4. Heat and power
Potential
(Mt CO2e/yr)
Problem
(Mt CO2e/yr)
Power Gen: -101
Up to 70 ?
Example
Strategies
 Replace coal for
power gen, or in
cement making
5. Transportation fuels
Transportation: -199
Up to 50 ?
 Supplement / replace
gasoline or diesel
with biofuels
6. Bio-Products
FromPeakoilBlog2008
5 ?
Metal: -17
Cement: -9
-26
 Replace steel and
cement with wood
in construction

6. Obama renews commitment
to CC action
Melting arctic & severe weather
Fossil fuel recovery & pipeline
projects lack ‘Public License’
Interest in Cdn energy strategy
& systems level approaches
High cost for CCS ($150+/tCO2)
What do Canadian energy systems look like?
What is the current role for bioenergy/biofuels?
Cycles of Interest &
Investment in Biological
Solutions to Climate Change
KYOTO Protocol
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Forest & Agric’l C Sinks seen as
central to Canada meeting its
Kyoto commitment
Plans for Emission Trading
Many R,D&D initiatives funded
Forest fires & Mtn Pine
Beetle make Canada’s
forests a C source
Change in Fed.
Gov’t CC policies
Canada Abandons
Kyoto Protocol
Concerns about
validity / verification
of offset projects
Focus on geol. CCS
research & deployment

7. Canada’s Energy Systems
(2010)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
Hydro
Bio
Export
Demand
PrimaryEnergySources Import NOTE:
 Net export:
~50+% of 1o
energy supply
 Biomass: 2.7%
of 1o energy
supply
Gasoline
Diesel
Wood, Ethanol, Biodiesel
Electricity
CANADA’S
ENERGY
INDUSTRIES
Crude
oil
Pipelined
Natural
Gas
Uranium
oxide &
Fuel
pellets

8. Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
Hydro
Bio
Export
Demand
PrimaryEnergySources Import
Canada exports
~50% of its primary
energy production
PrimaryEnergySources
Service
Delivered
Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
Hydro
Bio
Demand
Conversion
Loss
Canada’s Energy Systems
(2010)
Cdn Domestic Energy Systems
(2010)

9. PrimaryEnergySources
Service
Delivered
Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
Hydro
Bio
Demand
Conversion
Loss
Mobility
Residences
Supply Chain
Buildings
Industry
Non-Energy
Cdn Domestic Energy Systems
(2010)
Gasoline
Diesel
Wood, biofuels
Elect-
ricity
CANADA’S ENERGY INDUSTRIES
Natural Gas
• 5.7% of domestic primary energy supply
• Equivalent to ~39 Mt dry biomass/yr
Powe
r
57 32 91 14 478 27
Mobility
Residences
Supply Chain Industry (mostly forestry sector)
PJ/yr
Biomass:
(693 PJ/yr)
Conv. Loss

10. PrimaryEnergySources
Service
Delivered
Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
Hydro
Bio
Demand
Conversion
Loss
Cdn Domestic Energy Systems
(2010)
EnergyDemand:336
101(Power)
5637
3424
Export
Export
0.3
1
1
Domestic GHG Emissions (Mt CO2e/yr)
To address climate change,
Cdn GHG emissions must be reduced by
520 to 640 Mt CO2e/yr
by mid century.
+ Non-
energy
GHG
emissions
Land
use, lan
d use
change
&
forestry
22
56
54Industry
Agriculture
Waste
~100
=
Total GHG
Emissions:
~800 Mt
CO2e/yr
Mobility
Residences
Supply Chain
Buildings
Industry
Non-Energy

11. Message #1:
Go big or go home.
We have a 500+ Mt/yr GHG problem…
…”solutions” that are less than 1Mt/yr
are not climate change solutions.

12. Message #2:
We have the
bio-resource potential

13. Potential for Bioenergy
Forest Harvest Residues
MSW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
BioenergyPotential-Mt(dry)biomass/yr
Manure
Biomass Crops
Crop Residues
Mill Residues
Unused AAC
Fire Residue
Pest/Disease Residue
Silviculture/ Forest Mgmt
Aggr-
essive
Conser
-vative
700
Approx. equal to all 1o energy used domestically in Canada
BC
Que
Wheat
Hay
Forestry
Agriculture
Corn
Current Forestry
& Agriculture
Production
(165 Mt/yr)
Estimate
for biomass
potential
for energy
Existing bioenergy
(~5.7% Ttl energy)
At 130
Mt(dry)/yr, bioenergy
could provide:
2000 PJ/yr (~1M
boe/d)
Reduce GHG by
~130 Mt CO2e/yr
How
much?

14. Message #3:
We need to enhance
the value of our bio-resources.

15. $50-200/dryt
$100-300/dryt
Wood/Straw
Corn
Forest Rd or
Farm Gate
The Price of Energy
$60-100/boe
$3-$7/GJ
$0.50-3.50/GJ
0
10
20
30
40
2008-13EnergyPrice($/GJ)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Wellhead or
Mine Face
The Price of Energy (2008-13)
Strategies for
enhancing the Bio-
resource value?
 The efficiency and cost of
converting feedstocks to
energy commodity;
 The quality / ease of use
of the energy commodity;
 The life cycle ‘carbon
benefit’ of the bioresource
 Depends on carbon
price
 Typically <$3/GJ
benefit
Also Consider…
Energy
Commodity
$50-100/MWh
$0.60-1.00/L
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Biodiesel
Ethanol

16. Strategies for Enhancing
the Bio-Resource Value.
1. Price on Carbon
2. Regulation
 e.g. fuel standards
3. Enhance the Value
Chain:
Examples:
 Biomass waste to
energy or C sinks
 Water treatment + C sink
/ energy resource
 ??
Spent AC
Biochar
• oil sands in situ production
• oil sands mining (tailings)
• tight oil / gas fracking water
Cleaner Water
Activated C
Biochar (ACB)
Biomass
Energy C sink
Recycle
Produced Water Containing OrganicsCO2
CO2
CO2
Adsorption
See Poster by Veksha et al. 2013

17. Strategies for Enhancing
the Bio-Resource Value.
4. Partner rather than Compete
 The existing energy industry has the resources, scale of
operations and the need for cleaner technologies.
 Rather than working to take market share away from the
industry, find ways to help the industry reduce their C,
water or biodiversity footprint.
 The energy industry will pay more for GHG solutions
that are “inside their fence” than for “offsets” to meet
regulatory requirements.

18. Message #4:
Will the Atmosphere Notice?

19. Can you ‘PROVE’ that the
Atmosphere Noticed?
Verification (with minimal transaction costs):
a challenge for offsets from non-energy emission reductions or C sinks
Permanence:
“…the risk that emission
removals by sinks are
reversed, because forests are cut
down or destroyed by natural
disaster”
Leakage:
“…the increase in emissions outside
the project boundary that occurs as a
consequence of the implementation
of the project”
What happens when
neither the buyer
nor the seller
are deeply invested
in whether
the activity is real?
Buyer: regulatory compliance
Seller: financial compensation.
Who in the transaction is looking out
for the interests of the atmosphere?

20. Message #5:
Plan for Unintended
Consequences

21. Unintended
Consequences
For the Emerging Bioeconomy:
1. Food Price / Availability
2. Water
3. Land use / Biodiversity
4. Albedo
5. Byproduct streams
Investors and
regulators need to
foresee possible
problems and
address them
early.
A common problem in the energy sector, given the scale of
the industry and its expanding geographical distribution.
We need to learn from the past mistakes of other industry
sectors, and get in front of problems before they undermine
the public license to operate.
See poster by Sara Goto

22. Summary
of Key Messages
1. Go big or go home.
2. We have the bio-resource potential.
3. We need to enhance the value of our
bio-resources.
4. Will the atmosphere notice?
5. Plan for unintended consequences.
Thank you