TGO Climate Tech Trend in 2030

1. Climate Tech Global Trends
Reversal emerging as a trillion-dollar opportunity
12 July 2023 - Thailand Carbon Neutral Network
David Fullbrook
Managing Director 350 Limited
Chief Climate Of
fi
cer NRF
david@350corp.com
350 Limited is the climate solutions business of NR Instant Produce PCL

2. Climate tech: Trend of the century recap
Performance
Lower costs or better
quality drive tech uptake
🇺🇸 🇮🇳
🇪🇺 🇨🇳
Warming
problem
Emissions rising - 1.5º
warming likely before
2030
But, emissions will
peak this decade as
solutions, led by
climate tech, scale up
Energy shocks,
geopolitics & health
concerns fuel demand
for climate tech
Exponential
policy
Big four pursuing
exponential change in
different ways - strong
tailwinds for the world
US In
fl
ation Reduction
Act sets the pace for
subsidies
EU CBAM & Supply
Chain Due Diligence
Directive drives
transparency & CO2
pricing
Rebuild
everything
Energy, power, heat,
water, farming, food,
transport, materials
Jobs, jobs, jobs
Climate tech boom
creates new jobs as
AI automates IT,
services & admin
Three cobene
fi
ts
(driving demand)
1
2
3
Health
Lower pollution e.g. PM2.5
Security
Vladimir Putin can’t stop
ef
fi
ciency, sun or wind

3. 33
Climate tech: Three strategies
1. Mitigate
Eliminate greenhouse gas
emissions
Well-de
fi
ned stable
problem - we know how
to do it
Status: Established
Examples:
Preferences, Behaviour,
Ef
fi
ciency, Solar, Wind,
Nuclear, Biogases,
Batteries, EVs, etc
33
2. Adapt
Cooler living in a hotter
world
Fuzzy problem, moving
target - may overwhelm
solutions & capabilities
Status: Unclear
Examples: Aircon,
Refrigeration, Insulation
Migration, Crop
switching, Behaviour,
Processes, Genetic
engineering, etc
3. Reverse
Removing carbon from
the atmosphere into long-
term stable storage
Well-de
fi
ned problem,
moving target (until
emissions peak) - we
know how to do it
Status: Emerging
Examples: Oceans, Soils,
Biochar, BECCS, DAC,
etc
Digital control & coordination x AI
Recombination
& integration
Add technologies in
new ways & couple
energy systems
between industries
Recombine & integrate
within & across
strategies
Examples:EVs
Green steel, Biogas
AI innovation
accelerator
Find, test & optimize
materials, designs,
manufacturing,
operations & integration
is slow
AI empowers faster
search of the climate-
tech opportunity space
by scientists & engineers
Climate tech will
innovate & scale faster
than we think?

4. Mitigate: Solar is getting better with age
Bollinger et al 2022 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.104378
Manufacturing 2033
Silicon g/Watt -27% to 1.6g/W
TOPCON silver -40%
Factory throughput +40-50%
Larger wafers & modules
Technology
TOPCON leading cell tech by
late 2020s, displacing PERC
Bifacial cells and modules
dominate from 2026
(VDPI 2023 ITRPV)
Accelerating
innovation
Solar leads climate tech
down the cost curve
Recent price rises due to
COVID etc erased by 2025
Performance (ef
fi
ciency)
Mass production modules
2023 2033
TOPCON 22% 24%
Tandem
Silicon-
Perovskites
- >26%

5. Mitigate: Solar on track for Net Zero
High-e
ffi
ciency cell capacity & shipment
Gigawatts
Terawatt/year by 2030
Installed capacity doubles every
3 years
Install 1,000-1,500 GW/year by
2030
Ample cell capacity suggests
excess supply fuelling demand
upside
Policies & spillovers
Governments & corporates
increasing solar goals &
auctions e.g. southeast
Asia 2023
EV & battery policies
tailwind for solar
Solar rising
2022: 4.5% global electricity
1,289 TWh
(>10% solar + wind)
2050: 69% global energy
104,000 TWh (Breyer)

6. Mitigate: Green steel integrates climate tech
H
Electrolyzer
Solar/
wind
Biochar
pyrolysis
Enzymes feed on
CO2 excreting
bioethanol
CCU CO2
H20
Bio-
ethanol
Industry
SAF
CO2
Bio-
reactor
“Carbon-neutral”
green steel mill,
Belgium
Combine & integrate climate
tech to decarbonize industry
ArcelorMIttal upgrading Gent steel mill in
Belgium with direct-reduced iron +
electric furnace tech to produce 2.5m
tonnes/year low/zero-carbon steel
Goal: eliminate 3.9m tCO2/year by
2030
Industrial symbiosis captures &
upcycles CO2 into bioethanol to
decarbonize downstream sectors like
aviation
EU ETS carbon price drives innovation,
levels playing
fi
eld
Optimize integration & replicate = lower
costs
Simpli
fi
ed concept - work-in-progress

7. Reverse: Remove CO2 to cool the world
Why we need reversal
“All pathways that limit global warming to
1.5°C … use carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
on the order of 100–1000 gigatonnes over the
21st century…[unless] global CO2 emissions
start to decline well before 2030”
UN IPCC (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C
Summary for Policymakers
BAU
On track for 3ºC
SwissRe: Damage @
18% of GDP in 2050
-$18 trillion/year
(2022 terms)
Reversal
CO2 removal market
average value/year
2023-2073+
-$0.2-1 trillion/year
@$100/tCO2
+$co-bene
fi
ts =
XX% removal cost?
Scale-up 2040s
Technical removals lead
Emissions fall not rise
Climate damage
matches models
Why wait?
Emissions still rising
Warming & damage > IPCC
Hybrid & Nature solutions
ready for gigatonne scale -
policy gap
Removal policy
EU ETS will include
removals
US may approve
carbon-removal
subsidies 2023
Corporates buyers
Microsoft, NASDAQ
(Puro), Airbus, United
Airlines, Occidental,
Stripe, Spotify, Nestle,
Apple, etc

8. Reverse: Three removal strategies
1. Nature
Protect, restore and expand
natural carbon sinks to reduce
CO2
CO2 removal is temporary —
natural carbon sinks are volatile
e.g. forest
fi
res, drought, pests,
heat
Nature methods only reduce
but do not remove CO2 from the
terrestrial carbon pool
Many co-bene
fi
ts, socially
acceptable
Examples: forests, seaweed,
regenerative farming, etc.
2. Technical
Engineer technologies to
capture & remove CO2 into
geological carbon sinks
Technical solutions are in principle
speci
fi
c, accurate &
transparent
Many challenges: novel
technologies, high costs & limited
sites
Few co-bene
fi
ts, may face
strong social opposition
Example: direct air capture &
storage
3. Hybrid
Combine natural reduction with
technical removal of CO2
Nature better at capturing CO2,
while technical methods are
better for transport and
removal
Challenge is integration to reduce
cost & risk, while accelerating
scale-up
Many co-bene
fi
ts, socially
acceptable
Examples: biochar, biomass CCS,
mass timber, mineralization
Removal
performance
Timely
Durable
Scalable
Veri
fi
ed
Trusted
Guaranteed
Co-bene
fi
ts
Equitable
Regenerative
Affordable

9. Reverse: Everywhere, everyone
SwissRe (2020) SONAR report
Everywhere
Removal opportunities
available in every community &
country
Solutions & scale vary within
and between countries
re
fl
ecting natural conditions
Everyone
A wide range of direct jobs for
all skill levels
Many jobs in supporting
industries
A lot of work for companies &
investors

10. Reverse: Work to do
World Economic Forum (2021)

11. Reverse: Ocean methods
Volume/year
5 gigatonnes
Carbon price
$30-300/tCO2
Permanence
50-1,000+ years
Geography
Worldwide
Status
R&D
Sustainability
Uncertain, risks vary greatly
across methods
Acceptability
Varies, likely medium to high
Feasibility
Low-to-high
Viability
Low-to-high, sensitive to co-
bene
fi
ts & local economics
Pathways
Biological: restore ecosystems, cultivate macroalgae (seaweed),
like kelp, at great scale, & iron fertilization of phytoplankton to
catpure & store carbon
Chemical: add alkaline minerals to react with ocean CO2 to form
bicarbonates, reducing acidi
fi
cation & increasing storage capacity
Electrochemical: apply low-carbon electricity to seawater
transforming CO2 into bicarbonate, may also yield hydrogen or pure
CO2 for industry

12. Reverse: Soils and regenerative farming
Volume/year
2-10 gigatonnes
Carbon price
$30-100/tCO2
Permanence
50-100+ years
Geography
Most farmland
Status
Methods common, carbon
credits emerging
Sustainability
High, restores soil microbiome
Acceptability
High, awareness of bene
fi
ts
Feasibility
High
Viability
Medium-high, subject to policy,
market forces
Healthy soils are a rich microbiome naturally absorbing CO2
from the air and carbon from plants
Changes in farming methods, particularly low/no-till and cover crops
and reduction/elimination of fossil-fuel based chemicals, restore &
nurture the microbiome
Practises used for millennia
Carbon-removal credits add incentives for farmers to switch from
high-emissions farming
Many approaches: regenerative, agroecological, permaculture,
biodynamic, organic

13. Reverse: Mineralization
Volume/year
5 gigatonnes
Carbon price
$200-300/tCO2
Permanence
10,000+ years
Geography
Suitable rocks widely distributed
around the world
Status
Startups, pilots, R&D
Sustainability
High, subject to safeguards
Acceptability
High, low-impact plus co-bene
fi
ts
Feasibility
High
Viability
High, subject to policy
Weathering of rocks naturally converts CO2 into solid and stable
calcium carbonates
A hybrid strategy is mineralization combining natural
weathering with technical methods
A common example is grinding suitable rocks, such as basalts or
silicates, into dust applied to farmland. Rock dust exposed to air
and rain reacts with CO2 to form calcium carbonates which
enhance soil fertility or washed into oceans reducing seawater
acidity. Dust may also be mixed with industrial CO2 streams to
form calcium carbonate

14. Reverse: Biochar
Volume/year
5 gigatonnes
Carbon price
$80-150/tCO2
Permanence
100-500+ years
Geography
Farms & biomass industries
worldwide
Status
Early commercial
Sustainability
High, subject to safeguards
Acceptability
High, low-impact plus co-bene
fi
ts
Feasibility
High
Viability
High, subject to agricultural policy
Pyrolysis of biomass, such as crop residues or feedstock crops,
produces biochar up to 80-90 per cent carbon
Biochar applied to soils deliver many bene
fi
ts e.g. restores the
microbiome, enhances fertility, conserves nutrients, stores
water
Biochar’s bene
fi
ts help farmers reduce or eliminate fossil-fuel based
agrichemicals (mitigation), strengthens drought resistance
(adaptation) and removes CO2 (reversal)
Many industrial applications for biochar e.g.
fi
ltration, carbon-neutral/
negative biochar-based concrete
Solution to farm burning local air pollution & GHG emissions

15. Reverse: Woody-biomass burial (WBB)
Volume/year
2 gigatonnes
Carbon price
$30-50/tCO2
Permanence
1,000+ years
Geography
Farms, forests, deserts &
rangeland
Status
Pilots, R&D
Sustainability
High, subject to biomass
sourcing & transport emissions
Acceptability
High, low-impact
Feasibility
High, limited by wood supply,
price & sites
Viability
High
Trees or wood residues are buried in dry chambers below ground
level safe from decomposition or risks such as
fi
re
Wood may also be stored above ground in deserts at any latitude
Expanding commercial forestry globally by 25 per cent will yield
suf
fi
cient biomass to remove 1 gigatonne/year
Wood burial chambers are
located in sub-soils (B) below
biologically-active surface soils
(A)
Chambers are located in
locations with low moisture,
typically above the water table
Zeng & Hausmann (2022)

16. Reverse: Mass engineered timber (MET)
Volume/year
1-2 gigatonnes
Carbon price
$100-150/tCO2
Permanence
50-100+ years
Geography
Settlements & infrastructure
worldwide
Status
Scaling up
Sustainability
High, subject to biomass
sourcing & transport emissions
Acceptability
High, low-impact + sustainable
forestry co-bene
fi
ts
Feasibility
High, limited by timber supply &
regulation
Viability
Medium-high, sensitive to
concrete price/emissions
Timber and/or bamboo processed into cross-laminated (CLT) or
glue-laminated (glulam) beams and other structural elements of
buildings and bridges
MET used in long-life buildings & structures stores carbon for
decades to centuries
MET stronger, lighter & more
fi
re resistant than steel
End-of-life MET becomes feedstock for biomass CCS projects
Increasing use in Canada, China, EU, Japan, Norway, Singapore,
Switzerland, UK, US, etc
MET buildings already 20-30 storeys, up to 100-storeys proposed in
Japan and UK
Long cycle MET forestry delivers many ecosystem bene
fi
ts

17. Reverse: Biomass carbon capture & storage
Volume/year
5-10 gigatonnes
Carbon price
$100-150/tCO2
Permanence
1,000+ years
Geography
Biomass, water & geological
sequestration
Status
Early commercial
Sustainability
High, subject to biomass
sourcing & transport emissions
Acceptability
High, subject to emissions &
biomass supply management
Feasibility
High, limited by geological
sequestration sites
Viability
Medium-high, sensitive to
competing solutions cost etc
Biomass, e.g. crop residues, feedstock crops, MET, etc, converted
into gases for industry or fuel, or directly combusted to
generate electricity, with CO2 emissions captured for
geological sequestration
Bioenergy CCS (BECCS) combusts biomass to generate electricity
Biothermal gasi
fi
cation CCS (BGCCS) produces hydrogen,
methane or ammonia for energy storage, vehicle fuel or
transformation into methanol or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
Biomass pyrolysis CCS produces biooil for geological
sequestration
Feedstock BECCS & BGCSS 500-1,000+ tonnes/day

18. Reverse: Direct air capture (DAC)
Volume/year
10+ gigatonnes
Carbon price
$300-600/tCO2
Permanence
1,000+ years
Geography
Zero-carbon electricity, geological
sequestration
Status
Pilots, R&D
Sustainability
Medium, energy intensive
Acceptability
Low, millions of capture devices,
land-ef
fi
ciency co-bene
fi
t?
Feasibility
Low-to-high, limited locations
Viability
Low-to-medium, cost & material
challenges
Catalysts react with air, usually caught & directed by fans, to
capture CO2 for geological sequestration
Requires large volumes of cheap zero-carbon electricity, e.g.
solar & wind, near geological sequestration sites
System removing 4,000 tCO2/year = 160,000 trees requires 0.25 ha
+ land for wind, solar, power lines & CO2 pipelines
Installing millions of devices & pipelines may blight the landscape
Assumed carbon price will drop from $600 to $300 & maybe $100
Expected to reach gigatonne scale in the 2040s - complementing
nature & hybrid solutions ready to scale now
Only co-bene
fi
t is land-use ef
fi
ciency claim
Climeworks Orca Project, Iceland, designed to remove 4,000 tonnes/year
1 gigatonne / 4,000 tonnes = 250,000 Orca-scale systems
Occidental’s STRATOS project, Texas, costing $500m+ will remove 500,000
tonnes/year from mid-2025 - 1 gigatonne capacity = $1 trillion

19. Reverse: Removal is cheap
Fossil fuel subsidies
$500 billion/year
0.5% Global GDP
Subsidy external costs
$6,000 billion/year
6% Global GDP
Health, climate, environmental &
other damage costs attributed to
additional fossil-fuel use enabled
by subsidies
Remove 5 billion tCO2
$500 billion/year
+ cobene
fi
ts
GDP neutral/positive?
Global warming damage
$18,000 billion/year
18% Global GDP
(2050 estimate SwissRe)
Fossil-fuels leading cause of 8.7 million
deaths/year caused by air pollution
Air pollution kills 30% of Asians
IMF Working Paper 2021/236
World Bank (2023) Detox Development

20. Climate tech: Takeaways
1. Reversal: emerging climate tech giga-trend
2. We can remove 5-10 gigatonnes/year with solutions available now at
modest risk & cost = regenerative farming + mineralization + biochar +
biomass CCS
3. Reversal is a
ff
ordable - and delivers incredible co-bene
fi
ts for society,
economy & Nature
4. Biggest obstacles are: vision, ambition, policy, regulation & carbon
pricing
5. Thailand Carbon Neutral Network can help Thailand become a reversal
leader
Negative