This document summarizes a study on the sustainability of global pig production systems from 1970 to 2050. It describes three main pig production systems (backyard, intermediate, intensive), and models their development over time using the IMAGE 3.1 model. The model considers parameters like production levels, carcass weights, growth rates, litter sizes, rations, and excretion of nitrogen and phosphorus. It then uses Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios to model different pathways for pig production out to 2050, varying parameters like ration compositions and productivity. The goals are to understand past trends, calibrate the model, and explore scenarios for future sustainability of global pig production systems.

1. Sustainability of pig production systems at
the global scale 1970-2050
L. Lassaletta, F. Estellés, A. Beusen, L. Bouwman, S. Calvet, H. van
Grinsven, J. Doelman, E. Stehfest, A. Uwizeye, H. Westhoek
Lugo 27 Marzo 2019

2. Production systems
Backyard
Intensive
Lassaletta et al. 2016 Env. Res. Lett. (Top-Down Approach)
Intermediate
Barley Corn Cake of soybean DDGS
Brans Molasses Residues from the
agrofood industry
Synthetic aminoacids
2050
?
Feed rations

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Rations: energy &
protein
The pigs module in IMAGE 3.1
Per system, region and global
Stocks; off-take rates; Energy needs, DM needs and Nitrogen needs; N
and P excretion; Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE); Feed Conversion Ratio
(FCR)
Production Performance parametersSystems share
Production module: Carcass weight in 3 systems:
backyard, intermediate, intensive
Herd module: Herd composition and stocks. 11
cohorts (Boars, sows and fatteners in different
stages)
Energy module: Energy needs and DM needs for
lactation, pregnancy, growth and maintenance
N & P module: Nutrient budget, N retention and
excretion
• 26 regions
• 3 systems: backyard,
intermediate, intensive
• Calibration year: 2005
• Past trends: 1970-2010
• Scenarios: 2010-2050
Key parameters scenarios construction
1. Fraction systems (backyard/inter/intens)
2. Production meat (kg)
3. Carcass weight
4. Daily growth (kg/d)
5. Litter size (piglets born alive)
6. Litters/sow/year
7. Metab. Ener. ration (Mj/kg DM)
8. Crude protein (CP) ration (%)
Other 13 auxiliary parameters

4. SSP5: Fossil fuel growth
SSP1: Green growht paradigm
SSP3: Fragmentation and stagnation
SSP2: BAU
Producción: SSPs scenarios Parametrization
RationsProductive parameters

5. Concentrates and alternative feeds
Oilcrops

6. SSP1: low protein content + alternative feed
SSP5: higher protein content +
conventional feed
Intensive
FCR (kg DM feed / kg carcass)
Crude protein
NUE(%)
NUE & FCR

7. Excretion and potential spread into croplands
Total excretion Application

8. Conclusions

9. Special Issue
Submission Open: 01 October 2018
Submission Deadline: 1 October 2019
Guest editors:
Xin Zhang, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
Luis Lassaletta, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Nathan D. Mueller, University of California, Irvine
Richard T. Conant, Colorado State University
Josep G. Canadell, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Eric A. Davidson, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
Any interested author is suggested to send an email to guest editors (nutrient.budgets.si@gmail.com) with the title and intent
to submit (a preliminary abstract is preferred).
This special issue will be published across five AGU journals. Manuscripts should be submitted through the
GEMS website for any of the following journals: JGR Biogeosciences, Global Biogeochemical
Cycles, Geophysical Research Letters, GeoHealth or Earth’s Future.
Quantifying Nutrient Budgets for sustainable nutrient management

10. Fernando
Estellés
Lex
Bouwman
Arthur
Beusen
Henk
Westhoek
Hans van
Grinsven
Salva
Calvet
Elke
Stehfest
Jonathan
Doelman
Aimable
Uwizeye
Co-authors
Many thanks
luis.Lassaletta@upm.es