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Case Study: Konkan railway Corporation
Limited
Amit Garg, Prakriti Naswa and PR Shukla
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
07/09/2012
1
Sustainable (& Reliable) Logistics and
Climate Change Risks
• 47% of Projected Freight Demand
will move on DFC's
• DFC’s would therefore become
critical to national freight movement
• DFC’s especially on Eastern and
Western ghats could be more
susceptible to weather vagaries, as
even now the existing railway lines
there experience operational
difficulties during monsoons.
• What could happen, how to assess it,
and what to do about it?
Climate Change Manifestation
07/09/2012
3
Large percentage change in extremes
Much bigger percentage changes in extremes
• Climate is average weather of past 30 years at a
place.
• Climate change (CC) manifests as weather of
the day.
• Long-life assets are planned based on past
weather mean and extremes.
• Weather mean and extremes may change under
CC as shown, exposing the assets to altered
risks - such as more number of rainy days,
higher rain per day, altered locations for rainfall.
• Managing weather extremes is more critical for
safe and economic operation of infrastructure
assets.
• How much preventive design safety to include in
a new railway project to climate proof it? How
much for an existing asset? Each SafetyWork
comes with a price tag.
LESS RAIN
(Rainy days,
rain per day,
rain location)
MORE
RAIN
MORE
RECORD
RAIN
DRY AVERAGE WET
LESS
CHANGE
IN RAIN
MUCH
MORE
RAIN
MORE
RECORD
RAIN
DRY AVERAGE WET
Uncertainty and Risks for I/S Assets
07/09/2012
4
• Two types of risks
• Implementing safety works for an event that does not eventually occur - Excessive
safety? – wasted expenditure? –Type-1 error
• Not planning for an extreme event which eventually occurs - Lower safety? –
exposing passengers and goods to risks? – Type-2 error.
• CC uncertainty therefore creates
• Risk of unwanted events happening
• Costs required to avoid them (Preventive)
• Costs to restore the system, in case events do occur (Palliative)
• Costs of insurance against (un-covered) events
• How much Safety works are adequate to manage climate change risks?
• Can we, and should we, climate proof every railway line? What are the costs?
• Are there any instruments that could take care of un-covered risks?
• KRCL has already spent over Rs. 280 crore on additional safety works since 2001
(excluding development costs of Raksha Dhaga etc) and plans to invest another Rs. 340
crore in next 5 years, mainly to reduce risks of boulders falling and soil slippage. About
20% of annual engineering maintenance expenditure is due to weather related events.
• This is almost 15% (converted to constant prices) of its total construction cost of
about Rs. 3500 crore.
Konkan Railway
 Connects two important ports of Mangalore
and Mumbai
 First major infrastructure project to be taken
on BOT basis
 Built on an extremely rugged terrain
 1998 Bridges (179-Major; 1819-minor) and 92
tunnels
 Mountainous terrain with many rivers
 Landslides a common problem due to
excessive rainfall
 First time IR built tunnels longer than 2.2 kms
 More than 1000 cuttings in the track
 Exposed to excessive precipitation resulting
in land slides - hampering train operations
and safety
Source: KRCL
07/09/2012
5
Salient Features of KRCL
1
RUBs, ROBs &
FOBs
(No. 365)
MAJOR BR.
(No. 179)
(Water way length -
19.823 Km.)
MINOR BR.
(No. 1701)
(Water way length -
5.58 Km.)
BRIDGES
(TOTAL 2245 Nos)
Total Water Way Km. 25.403
1
BLASTLESS
TRACK
(No. 6)
(KM . 22.762)
OTHERS
(No. 85)
(KM . 61.734)
1
0 TO 4.9m
5.0 TO 11.9m
12.0 TO 14.9m
15.0 TO 19.9m
20.0 TO 24.9m
25.0 TO 29.9m
30.0 TO 34.9m
35.0 TO 39.9m
40.0 TO 50.0m
51
179
79
100
81
44
18
10
2
Number of cuttings Height of cuttings
CUTTINGS
(TOTAL 564 Nos)
RN-349 & KW-215
Total Length Km. 226.71
(Length RN-125.65 & KW-101.06 Km.)
TUNNELS
(TOTAL 91 Nos)
Total Length Km. 84.496
(Total Curve Length Km. 23.484)
Accidents
Rescue operations in progress at
Vaibhavwadi, the site of the Konkan Railway
accident of June 22, 2003, in which more
than 50 persons were killed.
http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2015/stories/
20030801006911900.htm
The smashed coaches of the Matsyagandha
Express after it hit a boulder and derailed at
Amboli village on the Konkan Railway in
Maharashtra's Raigad district on June 16,
2004.
http://www.hindu.com/fline/fl2114/stories/200
40716001904200.htm
Accidents/ Events
One of the boulders that derailed the
Matsyagandha Express near Mahad in
Maharashtra on June 16, 2004.
http://www.hindu.com/2004/06/17/stories/20
04061706301100.htm
The collapse of retaining wall between
Nivasar and Ratnagiri stations in Konkan
Railway
http://manipalworldnews.com/news_local.asp?
id=3499
Regional Temperature & Rainfall Projections:
Snapshot
7-Sep-12
9
1970- 2030
Mean Annual
Rainfall
SD
Mean Annual
Temperature
SD
Himalayan ↑↑↑ ↑↓↔ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑
West Coast ↑↑↑ ↑↓↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↔↔
East Coast ↑↓↑ ↓↓↓ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑
North East ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑
 Regional Projections:Annual Rainfall Increase in 2030s w.r.t 1970
 Himalayan region: 5 to 13%
 West coast: 6 to 8 %; winter rainfall to decrease
 East coast: 0.2% to 4.4 %;Winter rainfall to decrease
 North- Eastern Region 0.3% to 3%.; Substantial winter rainfall decrease
Why is it a challenge?
07/09/2012
10
 System thresholds
 Climate system can react abruptly with limited warning signs before
thresholds are crossed – flash floods (Stocker, 1999)
 More than the averages, it is the extremes events are a cause of concern
 Extreme Weather Event: An event that is rare at a particular place and time of year
 “Rare” is defined as the highest or lowest 10% (IPCC, 2007)
 Unaccounted risks can wash away developmental benefits
 Limited resources; Every resource unit has opportunity costs
 Socio-economic already stressed with stressors like population growth,
increased urbanization, resource use, and economic growth (MoEF, 2010; Sahoo &
Dash, 2009; Straub, 2008; Garg, et al., 2007; Sathaye, et al., 2006)
 Infrastructure investment today will determine the development
scenario & GHG emission trajectories in future
Weather and climate extremes are among the most serious
challenges to society in coping with global warming
07/09/2012
11
 Weather-related insurance losses in the U.S. are increasing.
 Typical weather-related losses today are similar to those
that resulted from the 9/11 attack (shown in gray at 2001 in
the graph).
 About half of all economic losses are insured, so actual
losses are roughly twice those shown on the graph
Risk and Risk Management
07/09/2012
12
 Risk: Potential for loss or damage to system
 Arise out of uncertainties
 Product of hazard and vulnerability (IPCC, 2007)
 Risk management: Systematic approach & practice of managing
uncertainty to minimize potential harm and loss (UNISDR, 2009)
 Risk assessment and analysis
 Implementation of strategies and specific actions
 Control
 Reduce
 Transfer risks
Types of Risks
Risk Category Example
Physical
Exposure risks due to increase
frequency and variability of climate
variables.
Damage to tracks,
railway infrastructure
Regulatory
Binding agreements; Influence of
international policies
Change in fuel mix;
Additional taxes
Supply Chain
Effect on essential supplies of
petroleum, fertilizer, food grains
Annual Freight traffic to
the tune of Rs. 297crore
(2010-11)
Product &
Technology
Improvement in technologies to
meet regulations
Existing assets may
become redundant
07/09/2012
13
Source: Carmianti (2010); Vespermann & Wittmer (2010); Lash &Wellington (2007); IRM, (2002)
Primary
Risk
Allied
Risk
Some Impacts (Roads & Railways)
07/09/2012
14
CCC Parameter Temperature, Precipitation, Extreme Events
Direct Impacts  Physical Damage
 Boulder falling, land slides
 Accidents, derailments, curtailed train operations
 Joint Expansions, Rail cracks
 Supply Chain Impacts
Indirect Impacts  Agriculture production and regional freight traffic
 Enhanced cooling / Heating requirements
 Modal shifts
 Mitigation Pressures
Risk Management  Technology, e.g. Safety nets, reducing cuttings etc.
 Better Communication
 Insurance
Climate Change Adaptation & Costs
07/09/2012
15
 Adjustment in systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities.
 Reactive & Anticipatory
 Planned & Autonomous
 Complements & Supplements
 Adaptation, if taken up proactively, will reduce the damages from
US$13 to 6 trillion in 2100 for the world (Agrawala, et al., 2009).
 World Development Report: Adaptation costs for developing world
should be $75 billion/year over the period 2010 to 2050 (World Bank, 2010).
Source: IPCC, (2007b); Burton et al (2006); Fankhauser et al (1999)
Analytical Framework
07/09/2012
16
Integrated CC Assessment for Infrastructure
17
T- Temperature S- Sea Level Rise P- Precipitation E- Extreme Events
Impacts due to CC
Risk = fn (Probability of
occurrence, System
resilience, Exposure)
Development pathways & policies
Risk &
uncertainty
management
Infra 1 Infra 2
Infra n
Global Emissions Global Policy Regime & Agreements
A - ADAPTATION
Human &
Natural Systems
A
A
A
A
CC resilient system &
national GHG emissions
Uncertainty
of Climate
Change
Variables
S
T
P
E
Source: Adapted from IPCC (2007)
07/09/2012
Risk Management Framework
07/09/2012
18
Reverse Impact Matrix
07/09/2012
19
ForcingVariables 
DépendentVariables
Environmental Variables Project Components
Environnemental
Variables
Quadrant 2:
Environnemental impact
inter-linkages
Quadrant 3: Reverse
Impact (impacts of
environment on project)
Project Components Quadrant 1: Forward
Impact (impacts of project
on environment)
Quadrant 4: Project’s
impact on other projects
Source: Kapshe, et al. (2003)
Climate Impact Matrix
Dependent
variables
Temperature
Rainfall
Sea
level
rise
Extreme
events
Water
logging
Vegetation
growth
Land
slide
Safety/Efficiency
Maintenance
Traffic
volume
Forcing Variables
Temperature L M L -- L -- -- -- L
Rainfall L -- M M M H L L M
Sea level rise -- -- -- M L M L -- L
Extreme events -- L -- M -- M L -- M
Water logging -- -- -- -- -- L L -- M
Vegetation growth L L -- -- -- L -- L --
Land slide -- -- -- -- M L M L H
Safety/Efficiency -- -- -- -- L -- L M M
Maintenance -- -- -- -- M L H H M
Traffic volume -- -- -- -- -- -- -- L M
Environmental
Variables
Project
Components
Environmental Variables Project Components
07/09/2012
20
Framework for Designing Insurance Packages
for CC Impacts
 Impact matrix creation and analysis
 Identify critical climate change (CC) parameters
 Estimate damage function
 Historical relationship between economic damages and CC impacts
 Adjust for intensity and frequency of climatic impacts
 Get future projections for CC parameters
 Estimate economic losses in future and their probability distribution
 Adjust for discontinuities, if likely to be considerable
 Analyze alternatives to manage these losses and associated risks,
and likely cost of these alternative options
 Annual insurance package
 Annualized highest loss scenario (from Insurance company’s
perspective)
 Annualized lowest damage scenario (asset owner’s perspective)
 Risk weighted average
Risk Estimation and Valuation
07/09/2012
22
Economic Loss (EL) = Infrastructure Loss (Stock) + Operating Loss (Flow)
EL = f (SDVi, SCV j, CCV k) + g (OL l)
SDV: Sustainable DevelopmentVariables
SCV: System ConditionVariables
CCV: Climate ChangeVariables
OL: Operating loss
i = Forest cover, new habitats near KR route etc.
j =Track maintenance level, cuttings, new technology (wire-nets, warning systems) etc.
k = Extreme Rainfall, new rainfall locations etc.
l =Traffic lost, Restoration costs etc.
Vulnerability of KRCL to climate change will be captured by SDVi, SCVj, CCVk
Adaptation will be captured through SDVi , SCVj
Incidence of loss could happen when, CCV k ≥T k (Critical threshold for variable k)
Damage Function Estimation
07/09/2012
23
Expected value of damages or Economic Loss (EL) of a climate change related event could
be given as:
E [EL] = function { ∑ ∑ (pmn) (EV) }
m n
Where,
m = Location where event occurs, such as land slide or boulder falling location;
n = Weather incident such as rainfall > 200 mm in 24 hours,
p = probability of event for a given m and n under a projected climate change scenario C;
EV = economic value of event n occurring at location m. This would capture all the
preventive and palliative expenditure done at mn.
C = Projected climate change scenarios (BAU, A1B, SD)
Damage attributable to climate change = E [EL (A1B)] - E [EL (BAU)]
Economic Savings in a SD scenario = E [EL (A1B)] - E [EL (SD)]
KRCL Event Trends
07/09/2012
24
Boulder falling & Landslides with Traffic Interruptions
07/09/2012
25
30
17
20
9
8
17
7
12
5 5
3
4
5 5
Increase
Total cases of Boulder falling & Landslides
07/09/2012
26
172
194
153
69
47
85
42
76
24 31
15 12 19
10
Increase
07/09/2012
27
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Boulder Falling & Soil Slips UKC DOKE
RN NIV
NIV ADVI
ADVI VID
VID RAJP
RAJP VDW
KKW SNDD
Large number of
cases in initial years
Gradual decline
Increase in 2003-04
Fall in Maintenance E.
Drastic decline
Maintenance Expenditures
07/09/2012
28
Year
Bridges &
Tunnels
Plant &
Equipment
Permanent
Way
Stations &
other
Buildings
Rolling
Stock
1995-96 806,161 1,285,058 14,472,652 3,322,102 134,714
1996-97 2,685,235 1,450,971 16,464,760 3,235,914 781,719
1997-98 4,253,052 18,110,044 53,751,451 1,759,736 4,990,139
2003-04 64,192,860 75,698,749 411,219,788 38,059,646 23,909,770
2004-05 24,259,305 81,661,809 480,899,859 65,662,078 18,158,138
2005-06 13,957,193 95,332,205 263,620,310 55,855,804 22,632,987
2006-07 22,632,987 141,035,637 332,108,503 85,829,351 42,514,651
2010-11 24,707,595 106,687,318 279,731,580 65,470,209 53,849,548
30
Times
83
Times
19
Times
19
Times
399
Times
6
Times
6
Times
5
Times
37
Times
10
Times
Over base year 1997-98 (Train operations began in 1998)
Decrease inYoY
maintenance
spending
Accident Statistics
07/09/2012
29
Cause Proportion #
Natural 61.54% 16
Material Failure 11.54% 3
Failure of Railway staff 15.38% 4
Others 11.54% 3
Year #
1999-00 4
2000-01 9
2001-02 1
2002-03 2
2003-04 5
2004-05 2
2005-06 1
2006-07 1
2007-08 1
2010-11 2
123.5 182.86 138.25
8.12
328.45
1058.44
9.5 0.1 1.5 0 0 43.042
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Damage in Rs Lakhs
Rainfall Pattern
07/09/2012
30
Spatial pattern of projected seasonal precipitation change (mm) for 2050 relative to 1990s
Konkan Rail Route overlaid False Color Composite
(LANDSAT TM- Mosaic Images (1999-2000 & 2001)
07/09/2012
31
Value
High : 0.000716551
Low : -3.91527e-017
07/09/2012
32
!
O
!
O
!
O
!
O
Value
High : 0.000716551
Low : -3.91527e-017
07/09/2012
33
07/09/2012
34
Current Geo-tech Safety Works
 Boulder Netting
A Rock fall protective measure
Quantity Executed (MT): 44.55
Total Cost (`Crore): 37.16
 Shot-Creting
To arrest the boulder falls and loose rocks
from falling in tunnels and cuttings
Quantity Executed (sqm): 11255
Total Cost (`Crore): 68.63
35 07/09/2012
 Rock Bolting
To anchor loose boulders to the
parent rock and prevent them from
falling in tunnels and cuttings
Quantity Executed (MT): 1699.84
 Micro Piling
A geo-technical engineering solution
to prevent slope failure in soil
cuttings
Quantity Executed (MT): 44.55
Total Cost (`Crore): 37.16
Current Geo-tech Safety Works
36 07/09/2012
 Soil Nailing
A geo-technical engineering solutions to
strengthen the soil slope and avoids its failure
Quantity Executed (MT): 44.55
Total Cost (`Crore): 37.16
 Vetiver Plantation
Vetiver grass grown on the slopes to form a
hedge which acts like a barrier for soil loss
Quantity Executed (rmt): 56944
Total Cost (`Crore): 12.2
Current Geo-tech Safety Works
37 07/09/2012
 Flattening of slopes
 Construction of
o Toe walls
o Ballast retainer walls
 Lining of catch water drains
Current Geo-tech Safety Works
38 07/09/2012
 RakshaKavach - Anti-Collision Device Network
A Network of ‘on-board’ (Locomotive and Guard) and ‘track-side’ (Station,
Level Crossing, Locoshed, Repeater and Sensor-based) ACDs that work on the
principle of ‘Distributed Control Systems’
Technology currently in use
39 07/09/2012
Analysis and Conclusions
07/09/2012
40
Stylized interaction of relevant CCV with SDV (Under BAU)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Stylized
variable
levels
(IA2)
CCV (rain >= 200
mm/day)
SDV (forest cover)
SDV (technological
inputs)
System resilience
with technological
inputs
System resilience
without technological
inputs
System resilience threshold level to
withstand adverse impacts
07/09/2012
41
Stylized interaction of relevant CCV with SDV (Under SD)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Stylized
Variable
Levels
(IB1)
Adverse CCV
(rain >= 200
mm/day)
SDV
(technological
inputs)
System resilience
with technological
inputs
SDV (forest
cover)
System resilience threshold level
to withstand adverse impacts
07/09/2012
42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Repair
&
maintenance
costs
Conventional bath-tub cost curve
(Reference scenario)
Cost curve under adverse
CCV and strongly
favourable SDV
Cost curve under adverse
CCV and adverse SDV
Cost curve under adverse CCV
(SDV not considered)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Repair
&
maintenance
costs
Conventional bath-tub cost curve
(Reference scenario)
Cost curve under adverse
CCV and strongly
favourable SDV
Cost curve under adverse
CCV and adverse SDV
Cost curve under adverse CCV
(SDV not considered)
 Long-life assets commissioned now will have higher failure rates after a century when they become
old.
 Climate change shall also exacerbate in later part of the 21st century.Therefore, impact probability
and costs on the infrastructure would increase significantly in later years.
Damage Cost: Integrating SC, CCV & SDV Impacts
Total Damage Cost
Reference
scenario (RS)
RS with adverse CCV and
strongly favourable SDV
RS with adverse CCV
and adverse SDV
RS with adverse CCV
(SDV not considered)
Economic losses
Probability
of
occurrence
Low Medium High
Economic Loss & Probability of Occurrence
Konkan Railway: Short-term Measures
 Technological solutions (risk mitigation strategy)
 Cutting, tunnels - various civil works
 Enhanced repair and maintenance expenditure (around 20%)
 Gadgets (Raksha dhaga etc)
 Costs: US$ 110 million (almost nil failures?), US$ 15 million (failures but
warn adequately to avoid accidents)
 Train operations (risk avoidance strategy)
 Train cancellations and diversions
 Speed restrictions
 Institutional (risk transfer)
 Disaster management and accident relief strengthening (risk retention)
 Accident insurance for lives lost/injured (risk transfer)
07/09/2012
45
Risk Management Strategies: Short Term
Konkan Railway: Long-term Issues
 Technological solutions (risk mitigation)
 May play less prominent role due to technological lock-ins
 Old systems, strong CC – higher impacts likely
 Utilize opportunities in short to medium-terms to strengthen the
system, e.g. Cutting flattening, anti collision devices
 Developmental paradigms (risk mitigation)
 Forest cover and settlement management
 Institutional (risk transfer)
 Access adaptation funds
 Insurance for assets
 Insurance against extreme climatic events
07/09/2012
46
Risk Management Strategies: Long Term
Thanks
07/09/2012
47
Insurance on Indian Railways
 System-wide insurance cover existing on Indian Railways
 Only death or injuries due to accidents insured
 US$ 9000 in the case of death and permanent disability
 Up to US$ 2000 in the event of injuries
 Annual premium US$ 9 million
 No outside asset insurance cover
 Damages worth US$ 45 million in 2004-05 due to all consequential
accidents
 Reduced to US$ 10 million in 2005-06
07/09/2012
48
Climate Change Impacts and Insurance
07/09/2012
49
 Assessment of impacts parameters and costs
 Establishment of monitoring system
 Reliable regional climate projections
 Identification of adaptation responses, including technologies.
 Developing insurance market for infrastructures
Cost of Climate Change
 Cost of accidents, reduced train operation & derailment
restoration etc: Rs 40 Crore (rough estimation)
 Preventive Geo-tech safety works already done (1999-
2012) : Rs. 277.84 Crores (actuals)
 Planned Permanent measures in cutting & tunnels for
next 5 years (2011-12 to 2015-16) : Rs. 340 Crores
 Total cost : Rs. 637.84 Crores
 Cost of construction of Konkan Railway : Rs. 3500 Crores
ABSTRACT OF GEO-TECH SAFETY WORKS
DONE IN THE YEAR 2012 - 13
(1st April 2012 TO 31st July 2012)
Sr.NO ITEM OF WORK UNIT QUANTITY
EXECUTED
Cost of
work done
(`. in
Crores)
1 Earthwork for flattening of slope & creation of
berms & Refixing of HSBN
Cum 245000 6.25
2 RCC Retaining wall and Gabion wall. Cum 3874.20 2.42
3 a) Shotcreting Sqm 11255 1.97
b) Rock Bolting MT 44.55
4 Pitching Cum 535.54 0.01
5 Catchwater drain (CWD) lining Cum 1134.32 0.67
6 Soil naling Rmt 5239.00 0.72
TOTAL 12.04
The cost abstract of yearwise planning
of permanent measures
Description of work 2011-
12
2012-13
2013-
14
2014-
15
2015-
16
Total
Flattening of slopes in cuttings,
retaining wall, lining of catch water
drains and side drains, etc.
40 60 60 70 70 300
Rock bolting and shotcreting in
Tunnels.
10 10 10 10 - 40
TOTAL 340
All figures are in `crores
ABSTRACT OF GEO-TECH SAFETY WORKS DONE IN
CUTTINGS/TUNNELS ON KONKAN RAILWAY FROM
1999 TO 2012 (upto 31/07/12)
Sr.NO Item of work Quantity Cost of
work done (`
in Crores)
1 Earthwork for flattening of slope & creation of berms &
Refixing of HSBN
86.8 Million Cum 101.73
2 RCC RetainingWall 23769.85 Cum 31.92
3 GabionWall 38234 Cum 2.79
4 Micropiling 56944 Rmt 12.20
5 Grouting 80096 Bags
6 Catchwater drain (CWD) lining 31951 Cum 11.14
7 Pitching 26510 Sqm 0.31
8 Shotcreting 657053 Sqm 68.63
9 Rock Bolting 1699.84 MT
10 Soil nailing 42358 Rmt 4.04
11 Geomatting 148000 Sqm 0.77
12 Loosescaling 23701 Cum 1.24
13 Bouldernetting 1216000 Sqm 37.16
14 Sand Dampners 883763 Bags 2.00
Laterite stone masonary 950 Cum
15 Rakha Dhaga 807 Nos 0.48
16 Catchfencing 5659 Rmt 1.93
17 Vetiver Grass Plantation 79.12 Lac. Sapling 1.50
TOTAL - 277.84
Abstract of Year wise expenditure
Year Approximate Expenditure
(`. In Crores)
1999-2000 3.45
2000-01 6.63
2001-02 8.35
2002-03 5.20
2003-04 23.68
2004-05 33.64
2005-06 21.60
2006-07 29.96
2007-08 35.16
2008-09 32.48
2009-10 26.39
2010-11 18.80
2011-12 20.46
2012-13 (As on
31/07/12)
12.04
TOTAL - 277.84
Short Term solutions
Climatic
Parameter
Impact
Parameter
Intervening
Parameter
Impact on KRC ShortTerm Solutions
Temperature
Increase
High Evaporation
rate
Stability and
strength of the
building
materials.
20% of repair and
maintenance
expenses are due to
climatic reasons
1) Increased budgetary
allocations for repair and
maintenance
2) Increase the frequency of
maintenance
Surface and
GroundWater
Loss
Crop
production
affected
Agricultural freight
traffic
Konkan Railway will have to
adjust its fares in order to
balance agricultural freight and
passengers
Need for Air
conditioning
Passenger
traffic may shift
to air
conditioned
staff
Affects efficiency,
carrying capacity
and composition.
1) Will need to increase
fares for account for the
decreased efficiency in
using fuel
2) Will need to improve
utilization of the existing
railway lines in order to
maintain carrying capacity
i.e. more trains on the
same route
3) Alter distribution of AC
and non-Ac coaches
Short term solutions
Climatic
Parameter
Impact
Parameter
Intervening
Parameter
Impact on KRC ShortTerm Solutions
Rainfall
Increase
Ground and
Surface water level
change
Flooding and
Water Erosion
reduces quality
of land cover
Logging
1) Buildings affected
and structural
damages
2) Increased
maintenance and
other related
costs
3) Line might be
closed for
increased
duration during
monsoons
1) Reduction in average speed
during the monsoons
2) Using high and medium
strength steel nets for slope
stabilization
3) Speed reduction
Improve Rainfall
availability in the
region
Agricultural
production
Changes in
agricultural freight
tariff
The freight rates will need to be
revised
Humidity increase Uncomfortable
climatic
conditions,
Vegetation
growth on the
track
Passenger traffic
affected, increased
maintenance cost
Cost of maintenance will
increase and more people need
to be hired for de-weeding the
tracks.
Short term solutions
Climatic
Parameter
Impact
Parameter
Intervening
Parameter
Impact on KRC Short term Solutions
Sea Level
Change
Land Erosion Tracks tunnels
and bridges
may be
affected
Increased
maintenance
1) Increased long term
spending will be required
for rock bolting.
Flooding Land Stability
and land slides
Damage to
infrastructure.
Reconstruction and
Relocation
Improve drainage facilities on
the tracks
Water logging Delays, Risk Increase
Extreme
Events
Cyclone and high
velocity winds and
storms
Damage to
buildings,
communication
lines etc
Disruption of
services, repair and
reconstruction costs
Long term solutions like
insurance are needed
Cloud bursts Land erosion,
floods, and land
slides
Extensive damage to
infrastructure, High
cost of repair and
reconstruction
Long term solutions like risk
transfer i.e. insurance are
needed

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KRCL Case Study

  • 1. Case Study: Konkan railway Corporation Limited Amit Garg, Prakriti Naswa and PR Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad 07/09/2012 1
  • 2. Sustainable (& Reliable) Logistics and Climate Change Risks • 47% of Projected Freight Demand will move on DFC's • DFC’s would therefore become critical to national freight movement • DFC’s especially on Eastern and Western ghats could be more susceptible to weather vagaries, as even now the existing railway lines there experience operational difficulties during monsoons. • What could happen, how to assess it, and what to do about it?
  • 3. Climate Change Manifestation 07/09/2012 3 Large percentage change in extremes Much bigger percentage changes in extremes • Climate is average weather of past 30 years at a place. • Climate change (CC) manifests as weather of the day. • Long-life assets are planned based on past weather mean and extremes. • Weather mean and extremes may change under CC as shown, exposing the assets to altered risks - such as more number of rainy days, higher rain per day, altered locations for rainfall. • Managing weather extremes is more critical for safe and economic operation of infrastructure assets. • How much preventive design safety to include in a new railway project to climate proof it? How much for an existing asset? Each SafetyWork comes with a price tag. LESS RAIN (Rainy days, rain per day, rain location) MORE RAIN MORE RECORD RAIN DRY AVERAGE WET LESS CHANGE IN RAIN MUCH MORE RAIN MORE RECORD RAIN DRY AVERAGE WET
  • 4. Uncertainty and Risks for I/S Assets 07/09/2012 4 • Two types of risks • Implementing safety works for an event that does not eventually occur - Excessive safety? – wasted expenditure? –Type-1 error • Not planning for an extreme event which eventually occurs - Lower safety? – exposing passengers and goods to risks? – Type-2 error. • CC uncertainty therefore creates • Risk of unwanted events happening • Costs required to avoid them (Preventive) • Costs to restore the system, in case events do occur (Palliative) • Costs of insurance against (un-covered) events • How much Safety works are adequate to manage climate change risks? • Can we, and should we, climate proof every railway line? What are the costs? • Are there any instruments that could take care of un-covered risks? • KRCL has already spent over Rs. 280 crore on additional safety works since 2001 (excluding development costs of Raksha Dhaga etc) and plans to invest another Rs. 340 crore in next 5 years, mainly to reduce risks of boulders falling and soil slippage. About 20% of annual engineering maintenance expenditure is due to weather related events. • This is almost 15% (converted to constant prices) of its total construction cost of about Rs. 3500 crore.
  • 5. Konkan Railway  Connects two important ports of Mangalore and Mumbai  First major infrastructure project to be taken on BOT basis  Built on an extremely rugged terrain  1998 Bridges (179-Major; 1819-minor) and 92 tunnels  Mountainous terrain with many rivers  Landslides a common problem due to excessive rainfall  First time IR built tunnels longer than 2.2 kms  More than 1000 cuttings in the track  Exposed to excessive precipitation resulting in land slides - hampering train operations and safety Source: KRCL 07/09/2012 5
  • 6. Salient Features of KRCL 1 RUBs, ROBs & FOBs (No. 365) MAJOR BR. (No. 179) (Water way length - 19.823 Km.) MINOR BR. (No. 1701) (Water way length - 5.58 Km.) BRIDGES (TOTAL 2245 Nos) Total Water Way Km. 25.403 1 BLASTLESS TRACK (No. 6) (KM . 22.762) OTHERS (No. 85) (KM . 61.734) 1 0 TO 4.9m 5.0 TO 11.9m 12.0 TO 14.9m 15.0 TO 19.9m 20.0 TO 24.9m 25.0 TO 29.9m 30.0 TO 34.9m 35.0 TO 39.9m 40.0 TO 50.0m 51 179 79 100 81 44 18 10 2 Number of cuttings Height of cuttings CUTTINGS (TOTAL 564 Nos) RN-349 & KW-215 Total Length Km. 226.71 (Length RN-125.65 & KW-101.06 Km.) TUNNELS (TOTAL 91 Nos) Total Length Km. 84.496 (Total Curve Length Km. 23.484)
  • 7. Accidents Rescue operations in progress at Vaibhavwadi, the site of the Konkan Railway accident of June 22, 2003, in which more than 50 persons were killed. http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2015/stories/ 20030801006911900.htm The smashed coaches of the Matsyagandha Express after it hit a boulder and derailed at Amboli village on the Konkan Railway in Maharashtra's Raigad district on June 16, 2004. http://www.hindu.com/fline/fl2114/stories/200 40716001904200.htm
  • 8. Accidents/ Events One of the boulders that derailed the Matsyagandha Express near Mahad in Maharashtra on June 16, 2004. http://www.hindu.com/2004/06/17/stories/20 04061706301100.htm The collapse of retaining wall between Nivasar and Ratnagiri stations in Konkan Railway http://manipalworldnews.com/news_local.asp? id=3499
  • 9. Regional Temperature & Rainfall Projections: Snapshot 7-Sep-12 9 1970- 2030 Mean Annual Rainfall SD Mean Annual Temperature SD Himalayan ↑↑↑ ↑↓↔ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ West Coast ↑↑↑ ↑↓↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↔↔ East Coast ↑↓↑ ↓↓↓ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ North East ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑  Regional Projections:Annual Rainfall Increase in 2030s w.r.t 1970  Himalayan region: 5 to 13%  West coast: 6 to 8 %; winter rainfall to decrease  East coast: 0.2% to 4.4 %;Winter rainfall to decrease  North- Eastern Region 0.3% to 3%.; Substantial winter rainfall decrease
  • 10. Why is it a challenge? 07/09/2012 10  System thresholds  Climate system can react abruptly with limited warning signs before thresholds are crossed – flash floods (Stocker, 1999)  More than the averages, it is the extremes events are a cause of concern  Extreme Weather Event: An event that is rare at a particular place and time of year  “Rare” is defined as the highest or lowest 10% (IPCC, 2007)  Unaccounted risks can wash away developmental benefits  Limited resources; Every resource unit has opportunity costs  Socio-economic already stressed with stressors like population growth, increased urbanization, resource use, and economic growth (MoEF, 2010; Sahoo & Dash, 2009; Straub, 2008; Garg, et al., 2007; Sathaye, et al., 2006)  Infrastructure investment today will determine the development scenario & GHG emission trajectories in future
  • 11. Weather and climate extremes are among the most serious challenges to society in coping with global warming 07/09/2012 11  Weather-related insurance losses in the U.S. are increasing.  Typical weather-related losses today are similar to those that resulted from the 9/11 attack (shown in gray at 2001 in the graph).  About half of all economic losses are insured, so actual losses are roughly twice those shown on the graph
  • 12. Risk and Risk Management 07/09/2012 12  Risk: Potential for loss or damage to system  Arise out of uncertainties  Product of hazard and vulnerability (IPCC, 2007)  Risk management: Systematic approach & practice of managing uncertainty to minimize potential harm and loss (UNISDR, 2009)  Risk assessment and analysis  Implementation of strategies and specific actions  Control  Reduce  Transfer risks
  • 13. Types of Risks Risk Category Example Physical Exposure risks due to increase frequency and variability of climate variables. Damage to tracks, railway infrastructure Regulatory Binding agreements; Influence of international policies Change in fuel mix; Additional taxes Supply Chain Effect on essential supplies of petroleum, fertilizer, food grains Annual Freight traffic to the tune of Rs. 297crore (2010-11) Product & Technology Improvement in technologies to meet regulations Existing assets may become redundant 07/09/2012 13 Source: Carmianti (2010); Vespermann & Wittmer (2010); Lash &Wellington (2007); IRM, (2002) Primary Risk Allied Risk
  • 14. Some Impacts (Roads & Railways) 07/09/2012 14 CCC Parameter Temperature, Precipitation, Extreme Events Direct Impacts  Physical Damage  Boulder falling, land slides  Accidents, derailments, curtailed train operations  Joint Expansions, Rail cracks  Supply Chain Impacts Indirect Impacts  Agriculture production and regional freight traffic  Enhanced cooling / Heating requirements  Modal shifts  Mitigation Pressures Risk Management  Technology, e.g. Safety nets, reducing cuttings etc.  Better Communication  Insurance
  • 15. Climate Change Adaptation & Costs 07/09/2012 15  Adjustment in systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.  Reactive & Anticipatory  Planned & Autonomous  Complements & Supplements  Adaptation, if taken up proactively, will reduce the damages from US$13 to 6 trillion in 2100 for the world (Agrawala, et al., 2009).  World Development Report: Adaptation costs for developing world should be $75 billion/year over the period 2010 to 2050 (World Bank, 2010). Source: IPCC, (2007b); Burton et al (2006); Fankhauser et al (1999)
  • 17. Integrated CC Assessment for Infrastructure 17 T- Temperature S- Sea Level Rise P- Precipitation E- Extreme Events Impacts due to CC Risk = fn (Probability of occurrence, System resilience, Exposure) Development pathways & policies Risk & uncertainty management Infra 1 Infra 2 Infra n Global Emissions Global Policy Regime & Agreements A - ADAPTATION Human & Natural Systems A A A A CC resilient system & national GHG emissions Uncertainty of Climate Change Variables S T P E Source: Adapted from IPCC (2007) 07/09/2012
  • 19. Reverse Impact Matrix 07/09/2012 19 ForcingVariables DépendentVariables Environmental Variables Project Components Environnemental Variables Quadrant 2: Environnemental impact inter-linkages Quadrant 3: Reverse Impact (impacts of environment on project) Project Components Quadrant 1: Forward Impact (impacts of project on environment) Quadrant 4: Project’s impact on other projects Source: Kapshe, et al. (2003)
  • 20. Climate Impact Matrix Dependent variables Temperature Rainfall Sea level rise Extreme events Water logging Vegetation growth Land slide Safety/Efficiency Maintenance Traffic volume Forcing Variables Temperature L M L -- L -- -- -- L Rainfall L -- M M M H L L M Sea level rise -- -- -- M L M L -- L Extreme events -- L -- M -- M L -- M Water logging -- -- -- -- -- L L -- M Vegetation growth L L -- -- -- L -- L -- Land slide -- -- -- -- M L M L H Safety/Efficiency -- -- -- -- L -- L M M Maintenance -- -- -- -- M L H H M Traffic volume -- -- -- -- -- -- -- L M Environmental Variables Project Components Environmental Variables Project Components 07/09/2012 20
  • 21. Framework for Designing Insurance Packages for CC Impacts  Impact matrix creation and analysis  Identify critical climate change (CC) parameters  Estimate damage function  Historical relationship between economic damages and CC impacts  Adjust for intensity and frequency of climatic impacts  Get future projections for CC parameters  Estimate economic losses in future and their probability distribution  Adjust for discontinuities, if likely to be considerable  Analyze alternatives to manage these losses and associated risks, and likely cost of these alternative options  Annual insurance package  Annualized highest loss scenario (from Insurance company’s perspective)  Annualized lowest damage scenario (asset owner’s perspective)  Risk weighted average
  • 22. Risk Estimation and Valuation 07/09/2012 22 Economic Loss (EL) = Infrastructure Loss (Stock) + Operating Loss (Flow) EL = f (SDVi, SCV j, CCV k) + g (OL l) SDV: Sustainable DevelopmentVariables SCV: System ConditionVariables CCV: Climate ChangeVariables OL: Operating loss i = Forest cover, new habitats near KR route etc. j =Track maintenance level, cuttings, new technology (wire-nets, warning systems) etc. k = Extreme Rainfall, new rainfall locations etc. l =Traffic lost, Restoration costs etc. Vulnerability of KRCL to climate change will be captured by SDVi, SCVj, CCVk Adaptation will be captured through SDVi , SCVj Incidence of loss could happen when, CCV k ≥T k (Critical threshold for variable k)
  • 23. Damage Function Estimation 07/09/2012 23 Expected value of damages or Economic Loss (EL) of a climate change related event could be given as: E [EL] = function { ∑ ∑ (pmn) (EV) } m n Where, m = Location where event occurs, such as land slide or boulder falling location; n = Weather incident such as rainfall > 200 mm in 24 hours, p = probability of event for a given m and n under a projected climate change scenario C; EV = economic value of event n occurring at location m. This would capture all the preventive and palliative expenditure done at mn. C = Projected climate change scenarios (BAU, A1B, SD) Damage attributable to climate change = E [EL (A1B)] - E [EL (BAU)] Economic Savings in a SD scenario = E [EL (A1B)] - E [EL (SD)]
  • 25. Boulder falling & Landslides with Traffic Interruptions 07/09/2012 25 30 17 20 9 8 17 7 12 5 5 3 4 5 5 Increase
  • 26. Total cases of Boulder falling & Landslides 07/09/2012 26 172 194 153 69 47 85 42 76 24 31 15 12 19 10 Increase
  • 27. 07/09/2012 27 0 5 10 15 20 25 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Boulder Falling & Soil Slips UKC DOKE RN NIV NIV ADVI ADVI VID VID RAJP RAJP VDW KKW SNDD Large number of cases in initial years Gradual decline Increase in 2003-04 Fall in Maintenance E. Drastic decline
  • 28. Maintenance Expenditures 07/09/2012 28 Year Bridges & Tunnels Plant & Equipment Permanent Way Stations & other Buildings Rolling Stock 1995-96 806,161 1,285,058 14,472,652 3,322,102 134,714 1996-97 2,685,235 1,450,971 16,464,760 3,235,914 781,719 1997-98 4,253,052 18,110,044 53,751,451 1,759,736 4,990,139 2003-04 64,192,860 75,698,749 411,219,788 38,059,646 23,909,770 2004-05 24,259,305 81,661,809 480,899,859 65,662,078 18,158,138 2005-06 13,957,193 95,332,205 263,620,310 55,855,804 22,632,987 2006-07 22,632,987 141,035,637 332,108,503 85,829,351 42,514,651 2010-11 24,707,595 106,687,318 279,731,580 65,470,209 53,849,548 30 Times 83 Times 19 Times 19 Times 399 Times 6 Times 6 Times 5 Times 37 Times 10 Times Over base year 1997-98 (Train operations began in 1998) Decrease inYoY maintenance spending
  • 29. Accident Statistics 07/09/2012 29 Cause Proportion # Natural 61.54% 16 Material Failure 11.54% 3 Failure of Railway staff 15.38% 4 Others 11.54% 3 Year # 1999-00 4 2000-01 9 2001-02 1 2002-03 2 2003-04 5 2004-05 2 2005-06 1 2006-07 1 2007-08 1 2010-11 2 123.5 182.86 138.25 8.12 328.45 1058.44 9.5 0.1 1.5 0 0 43.042 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Damage in Rs Lakhs
  • 30. Rainfall Pattern 07/09/2012 30 Spatial pattern of projected seasonal precipitation change (mm) for 2050 relative to 1990s
  • 31. Konkan Rail Route overlaid False Color Composite (LANDSAT TM- Mosaic Images (1999-2000 & 2001) 07/09/2012 31
  • 32. Value High : 0.000716551 Low : -3.91527e-017 07/09/2012 32
  • 33. ! O ! O ! O ! O Value High : 0.000716551 Low : -3.91527e-017 07/09/2012 33
  • 35. Current Geo-tech Safety Works  Boulder Netting A Rock fall protective measure Quantity Executed (MT): 44.55 Total Cost (`Crore): 37.16  Shot-Creting To arrest the boulder falls and loose rocks from falling in tunnels and cuttings Quantity Executed (sqm): 11255 Total Cost (`Crore): 68.63 35 07/09/2012
  • 36.  Rock Bolting To anchor loose boulders to the parent rock and prevent them from falling in tunnels and cuttings Quantity Executed (MT): 1699.84  Micro Piling A geo-technical engineering solution to prevent slope failure in soil cuttings Quantity Executed (MT): 44.55 Total Cost (`Crore): 37.16 Current Geo-tech Safety Works 36 07/09/2012
  • 37.  Soil Nailing A geo-technical engineering solutions to strengthen the soil slope and avoids its failure Quantity Executed (MT): 44.55 Total Cost (`Crore): 37.16  Vetiver Plantation Vetiver grass grown on the slopes to form a hedge which acts like a barrier for soil loss Quantity Executed (rmt): 56944 Total Cost (`Crore): 12.2 Current Geo-tech Safety Works 37 07/09/2012
  • 38.  Flattening of slopes  Construction of o Toe walls o Ballast retainer walls  Lining of catch water drains Current Geo-tech Safety Works 38 07/09/2012
  • 39.  RakshaKavach - Anti-Collision Device Network A Network of ‘on-board’ (Locomotive and Guard) and ‘track-side’ (Station, Level Crossing, Locoshed, Repeater and Sensor-based) ACDs that work on the principle of ‘Distributed Control Systems’ Technology currently in use 39 07/09/2012
  • 41. Stylized interaction of relevant CCV with SDV (Under BAU) 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Stylized variable levels (IA2) CCV (rain >= 200 mm/day) SDV (forest cover) SDV (technological inputs) System resilience with technological inputs System resilience without technological inputs System resilience threshold level to withstand adverse impacts 07/09/2012 41
  • 42. Stylized interaction of relevant CCV with SDV (Under SD) 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Stylized Variable Levels (IB1) Adverse CCV (rain >= 200 mm/day) SDV (technological inputs) System resilience with technological inputs SDV (forest cover) System resilience threshold level to withstand adverse impacts 07/09/2012 42
  • 43. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Repair & maintenance costs Conventional bath-tub cost curve (Reference scenario) Cost curve under adverse CCV and strongly favourable SDV Cost curve under adverse CCV and adverse SDV Cost curve under adverse CCV (SDV not considered) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Repair & maintenance costs Conventional bath-tub cost curve (Reference scenario) Cost curve under adverse CCV and strongly favourable SDV Cost curve under adverse CCV and adverse SDV Cost curve under adverse CCV (SDV not considered)  Long-life assets commissioned now will have higher failure rates after a century when they become old.  Climate change shall also exacerbate in later part of the 21st century.Therefore, impact probability and costs on the infrastructure would increase significantly in later years. Damage Cost: Integrating SC, CCV & SDV Impacts Total Damage Cost
  • 44. Reference scenario (RS) RS with adverse CCV and strongly favourable SDV RS with adverse CCV and adverse SDV RS with adverse CCV (SDV not considered) Economic losses Probability of occurrence Low Medium High Economic Loss & Probability of Occurrence
  • 45. Konkan Railway: Short-term Measures  Technological solutions (risk mitigation strategy)  Cutting, tunnels - various civil works  Enhanced repair and maintenance expenditure (around 20%)  Gadgets (Raksha dhaga etc)  Costs: US$ 110 million (almost nil failures?), US$ 15 million (failures but warn adequately to avoid accidents)  Train operations (risk avoidance strategy)  Train cancellations and diversions  Speed restrictions  Institutional (risk transfer)  Disaster management and accident relief strengthening (risk retention)  Accident insurance for lives lost/injured (risk transfer) 07/09/2012 45 Risk Management Strategies: Short Term
  • 46. Konkan Railway: Long-term Issues  Technological solutions (risk mitigation)  May play less prominent role due to technological lock-ins  Old systems, strong CC – higher impacts likely  Utilize opportunities in short to medium-terms to strengthen the system, e.g. Cutting flattening, anti collision devices  Developmental paradigms (risk mitigation)  Forest cover and settlement management  Institutional (risk transfer)  Access adaptation funds  Insurance for assets  Insurance against extreme climatic events 07/09/2012 46 Risk Management Strategies: Long Term
  • 48. Insurance on Indian Railways  System-wide insurance cover existing on Indian Railways  Only death or injuries due to accidents insured  US$ 9000 in the case of death and permanent disability  Up to US$ 2000 in the event of injuries  Annual premium US$ 9 million  No outside asset insurance cover  Damages worth US$ 45 million in 2004-05 due to all consequential accidents  Reduced to US$ 10 million in 2005-06 07/09/2012 48
  • 49. Climate Change Impacts and Insurance 07/09/2012 49  Assessment of impacts parameters and costs  Establishment of monitoring system  Reliable regional climate projections  Identification of adaptation responses, including technologies.  Developing insurance market for infrastructures
  • 50. Cost of Climate Change  Cost of accidents, reduced train operation & derailment restoration etc: Rs 40 Crore (rough estimation)  Preventive Geo-tech safety works already done (1999- 2012) : Rs. 277.84 Crores (actuals)  Planned Permanent measures in cutting & tunnels for next 5 years (2011-12 to 2015-16) : Rs. 340 Crores  Total cost : Rs. 637.84 Crores  Cost of construction of Konkan Railway : Rs. 3500 Crores
  • 51. ABSTRACT OF GEO-TECH SAFETY WORKS DONE IN THE YEAR 2012 - 13 (1st April 2012 TO 31st July 2012) Sr.NO ITEM OF WORK UNIT QUANTITY EXECUTED Cost of work done (`. in Crores) 1 Earthwork for flattening of slope & creation of berms & Refixing of HSBN Cum 245000 6.25 2 RCC Retaining wall and Gabion wall. Cum 3874.20 2.42 3 a) Shotcreting Sqm 11255 1.97 b) Rock Bolting MT 44.55 4 Pitching Cum 535.54 0.01 5 Catchwater drain (CWD) lining Cum 1134.32 0.67 6 Soil naling Rmt 5239.00 0.72 TOTAL 12.04
  • 52. The cost abstract of yearwise planning of permanent measures Description of work 2011- 12 2012-13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 Total Flattening of slopes in cuttings, retaining wall, lining of catch water drains and side drains, etc. 40 60 60 70 70 300 Rock bolting and shotcreting in Tunnels. 10 10 10 10 - 40 TOTAL 340 All figures are in `crores
  • 53. ABSTRACT OF GEO-TECH SAFETY WORKS DONE IN CUTTINGS/TUNNELS ON KONKAN RAILWAY FROM 1999 TO 2012 (upto 31/07/12) Sr.NO Item of work Quantity Cost of work done (` in Crores) 1 Earthwork for flattening of slope & creation of berms & Refixing of HSBN 86.8 Million Cum 101.73 2 RCC RetainingWall 23769.85 Cum 31.92 3 GabionWall 38234 Cum 2.79 4 Micropiling 56944 Rmt 12.20 5 Grouting 80096 Bags 6 Catchwater drain (CWD) lining 31951 Cum 11.14 7 Pitching 26510 Sqm 0.31 8 Shotcreting 657053 Sqm 68.63 9 Rock Bolting 1699.84 MT 10 Soil nailing 42358 Rmt 4.04 11 Geomatting 148000 Sqm 0.77 12 Loosescaling 23701 Cum 1.24 13 Bouldernetting 1216000 Sqm 37.16 14 Sand Dampners 883763 Bags 2.00 Laterite stone masonary 950 Cum 15 Rakha Dhaga 807 Nos 0.48 16 Catchfencing 5659 Rmt 1.93 17 Vetiver Grass Plantation 79.12 Lac. Sapling 1.50 TOTAL - 277.84
  • 54. Abstract of Year wise expenditure Year Approximate Expenditure (`. In Crores) 1999-2000 3.45 2000-01 6.63 2001-02 8.35 2002-03 5.20 2003-04 23.68 2004-05 33.64 2005-06 21.60 2006-07 29.96 2007-08 35.16 2008-09 32.48 2009-10 26.39 2010-11 18.80 2011-12 20.46 2012-13 (As on 31/07/12) 12.04 TOTAL - 277.84
  • 55. Short Term solutions Climatic Parameter Impact Parameter Intervening Parameter Impact on KRC ShortTerm Solutions Temperature Increase High Evaporation rate Stability and strength of the building materials. 20% of repair and maintenance expenses are due to climatic reasons 1) Increased budgetary allocations for repair and maintenance 2) Increase the frequency of maintenance Surface and GroundWater Loss Crop production affected Agricultural freight traffic Konkan Railway will have to adjust its fares in order to balance agricultural freight and passengers Need for Air conditioning Passenger traffic may shift to air conditioned staff Affects efficiency, carrying capacity and composition. 1) Will need to increase fares for account for the decreased efficiency in using fuel 2) Will need to improve utilization of the existing railway lines in order to maintain carrying capacity i.e. more trains on the same route 3) Alter distribution of AC and non-Ac coaches
  • 56. Short term solutions Climatic Parameter Impact Parameter Intervening Parameter Impact on KRC ShortTerm Solutions Rainfall Increase Ground and Surface water level change Flooding and Water Erosion reduces quality of land cover Logging 1) Buildings affected and structural damages 2) Increased maintenance and other related costs 3) Line might be closed for increased duration during monsoons 1) Reduction in average speed during the monsoons 2) Using high and medium strength steel nets for slope stabilization 3) Speed reduction Improve Rainfall availability in the region Agricultural production Changes in agricultural freight tariff The freight rates will need to be revised Humidity increase Uncomfortable climatic conditions, Vegetation growth on the track Passenger traffic affected, increased maintenance cost Cost of maintenance will increase and more people need to be hired for de-weeding the tracks.
  • 57. Short term solutions Climatic Parameter Impact Parameter Intervening Parameter Impact on KRC Short term Solutions Sea Level Change Land Erosion Tracks tunnels and bridges may be affected Increased maintenance 1) Increased long term spending will be required for rock bolting. Flooding Land Stability and land slides Damage to infrastructure. Reconstruction and Relocation Improve drainage facilities on the tracks Water logging Delays, Risk Increase Extreme Events Cyclone and high velocity winds and storms Damage to buildings, communication lines etc Disruption of services, repair and reconstruction costs Long term solutions like insurance are needed Cloud bursts Land erosion, floods, and land slides Extensive damage to infrastructure, High cost of repair and reconstruction Long term solutions like risk transfer i.e. insurance are needed