Hereby my Broadband MEA 2013 keynote presentation (delivered 20 March 2013).It's an Extended Re-Mix, rather than the limited slides required for the 15 minutes talk. Hopefully this gives a more rounded view on Growth Dynamics related to mobile data demand and supply in mobile networks as well as the Economics involved (which is often forgotten when the usual suspects gets exited about x1,000 challenges).
Take also a peek at my Blog on the topic:
http://techneconomyblog.com/2012/11/02/the-economics-of-the-thousand-times-challenge/
Enjoy!
Btw. apologies for the fairly hopeless format conversion in this presentation ( it looks better in real ppt format ;-).
Keynote delivered at European CTO Telecoms Forum looking at Telco World beyond the initial roll-out and path to 5G. Will Marketing lapfrog out of the Access-based thinking and really sell what Technology enable with converged broadband networks, cloud and visualization supporting IoT, Industry 4.0, Connected Car@s (or X in general) and so forth.
If you are interested in the slide or discussions related to the content, don't be a stranger, get in touch!
I enjoyed giving my "Small Cell Economics" presentation at the Small Cell MENA Conference in Dubai (October 7th, 2013). You will (or might) find this one particular provoking (even for me) but please bear in mind that the last thing I want is for you to think that Small Cells doesn't work or can be a great tool ... rather I like you to work on how to solve some of the problematic scaling issues in large-scale small cell networks.
I have for some time worked on training notes (eventually a book) that particular targets the un-initiated or persons / companies interested in understanding how Telco works and thinks. Particular focusing on Economics and Business Models.
These notes where used in a recent training I gave in Myanmar and as such many of the examples are particular to Myanmar.
For the initiated this is likely going to be too easy and sometimes even feel like cheating (just a bit).
Stay tuned as I will be updating these particular slides frequently and as I tailor make them for particular requests or interests.
In case you are interested in the actual training get in touch.
It was a great pleasure having this presentation presented at the Tehran 5G Conference in Iran this October, 2016. It kick started my thinking & analysis of the economics of 5G, While 5G have many great technology promises, a lot have to happen with our business models and economics to also cash in on those promises. Enjoy this presentation and stay tuned for many more on this important topic.
A special thanks to Minoo Abedi who presented this work at the conference in Tehran.
My Wi-Fi & Small Cell MENA presentation delivered 27th of October 2014 in Dubai.
If you want a copy don't hesitate to contact me and don't miss out on my blog either www.techneconomyblog.com ... which have a lot more prose around the nice pics! ;-)
This presentation summarizes the many technology ideas and business models to achieve Ultra-efficient network operation while safeguarding customer quality and expectations. This work was presented at Informa's Broadband MEA conference in Dubai, 26th of Match 2012.
For more in depth explanations check out my Blog: http://techneconomyblog.com/2014/05/21/the-abc-of-network-sharingthe-fundamentals-part-i/
Given the renewed discussion of Network Sharing pros and cons I thought it made sense to wrap up several of my older presentations and update some of the information with latest knowledge.
The myth of network sharing is clear -> huge savings and benefits often blinding the decision makers for the other side of the coin.
I hope this presentation provided a fair picture of both sides of the Network Sharing Coin!
The presentation provides more than 10 years of my work and experience since the early days of 3G Network Sharing discussions in 2000 - 2001.
Public conference on "LTE: new frequencies 2.6 GHz & 800 MHz – a chance for a new image of mobile telephony?", Friday October 8th, Warsaw, Poland.
Keynote delivered at European CTO Telecoms Forum looking at Telco World beyond the initial roll-out and path to 5G. Will Marketing lapfrog out of the Access-based thinking and really sell what Technology enable with converged broadband networks, cloud and visualization supporting IoT, Industry 4.0, Connected Car@s (or X in general) and so forth.
If you are interested in the slide or discussions related to the content, don't be a stranger, get in touch!
I enjoyed giving my "Small Cell Economics" presentation at the Small Cell MENA Conference in Dubai (October 7th, 2013). You will (or might) find this one particular provoking (even for me) but please bear in mind that the last thing I want is for you to think that Small Cells doesn't work or can be a great tool ... rather I like you to work on how to solve some of the problematic scaling issues in large-scale small cell networks.
I have for some time worked on training notes (eventually a book) that particular targets the un-initiated or persons / companies interested in understanding how Telco works and thinks. Particular focusing on Economics and Business Models.
These notes where used in a recent training I gave in Myanmar and as such many of the examples are particular to Myanmar.
For the initiated this is likely going to be too easy and sometimes even feel like cheating (just a bit).
Stay tuned as I will be updating these particular slides frequently and as I tailor make them for particular requests or interests.
In case you are interested in the actual training get in touch.
It was a great pleasure having this presentation presented at the Tehran 5G Conference in Iran this October, 2016. It kick started my thinking & analysis of the economics of 5G, While 5G have many great technology promises, a lot have to happen with our business models and economics to also cash in on those promises. Enjoy this presentation and stay tuned for many more on this important topic.
A special thanks to Minoo Abedi who presented this work at the conference in Tehran.
My Wi-Fi & Small Cell MENA presentation delivered 27th of October 2014 in Dubai.
If you want a copy don't hesitate to contact me and don't miss out on my blog either www.techneconomyblog.com ... which have a lot more prose around the nice pics! ;-)
This presentation summarizes the many technology ideas and business models to achieve Ultra-efficient network operation while safeguarding customer quality and expectations. This work was presented at Informa's Broadband MEA conference in Dubai, 26th of Match 2012.
For more in depth explanations check out my Blog: http://techneconomyblog.com/2014/05/21/the-abc-of-network-sharingthe-fundamentals-part-i/
Given the renewed discussion of Network Sharing pros and cons I thought it made sense to wrap up several of my older presentations and update some of the information with latest knowledge.
The myth of network sharing is clear -> huge savings and benefits often blinding the decision makers for the other side of the coin.
I hope this presentation provided a fair picture of both sides of the Network Sharing Coin!
The presentation provides more than 10 years of my work and experience since the early days of 3G Network Sharing discussions in 2000 - 2001.
Public conference on "LTE: new frequencies 2.6 GHz & 800 MHz – a chance for a new image of mobile telephony?", Friday October 8th, Warsaw, Poland.
Introduction to Artificial Intelligence. Not complex and should be relative easy to follow. Be aware that due to its high levelness (and no voice over) some care should be taken by the simplified examples used.
In connection with the EU Water Project awarded to CNR Catania, I gave this inspirational talk to Physics Students at Catania University and old research colleagues on how to transition from Academia to the often very non-scientific world of Corporation. How to keep your sanity, curiosity (i.e., “But Why?”) and continue to have fun throughout your career.
This presentation was given at our Big Data Days Event. The presentation provides a comprehensive (albeit high level) view of the important parts of Big Data in Network Technology.
Inspirational talk on AI (artificial intelligence) and machine learning, i.e., how to give birth to an AI. Introductory and intentionally kept simple for non experts and non technical executives. Care should be taken not too over interpret some of the intentional simplified statements in the presentation.
Delivered at the Network & Services Management Conference in Bonn, Germany on December 6th 2016. It comprises Deutsche Telekom's strategy and vision as it relates to real time network & services management and aggressive automation through AI and applied machine learning. It is fairly high-level but does include reference for further study and read-up, particular towards IETF and RTC publications.
Many of the topics addressed in this presentation can also be found in explained in more detail at my Blog http://techneconomyblog.com/
Gave this presentation at the Telecoms World Middle East 2014, 29th September. Had a lot of fun putting this work together and got me thinking a lot about the future of networking and the challenges we (Telcos) will be facing in preparing our networks for the next thing. This is a bout the Next Thing although its in reality "hitting" us now.
Have fun and Enjoy!
In case you have any questions or comments don't hesitate to get back to me.
My first Qtel Group Keynote address at the Telecoms World Middle East 2012 conference in Dubai. Its been great fun to do this parting with Europe analysis and the Outlook for the next 8 years. As I will not be totally retired by 2020 please remember that you will be able to hold me accountable for some of my predictions ;-) The Good Ones, The Bad Ones and for sure The Ugly Ones ... Enjoy and shoot back!
Delivered this presentation at the Informa's Pricing Mobile Broadband conference 26 & 27th August 2012 in London. While some of the slides are similar to the ones in my Mind Share document you will find new slides and re-worked material giving another twist to Right Pricing Mobile Broadband. Enjoy and should you have any questions/comments just get in touch! Don't be a stranger!
De-risking the broadband business model was presented at Informa's Industry Outlook 2012. The starting point summarizes the challenges the incumbent Telco is facing with the emergence of the smartphone, mobile applications and social media. Then it takes you to the Digital Agenda 2020 for Europe and inspects what needs to happen to make it come through.
I facilitated a discussion on "Right pricing LTE … ." @ Informa's Mind Share sessions at LTE World Summit, 22th May 2012, Barcelona, Spain. I should emphasize that this presentation really is a Technologist's view on mobile data pricing and not that of a Pricing Professional (whatever that might mean) responsible for pricing today's (maybe even tomorrows) mobile data products.
Had the pleasure to deliver the key note presentation at Informa's 3G, HSPA & LTE Optimization conference in Prague. Great event with many very important presentations.
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Spotlight Webinar Dec 2014David Chambers
Leading Small Cell Industry Analysts Caroline Gabriel and Joe Madden present their latest Small Cell 5 year forecasts, together with their underlying assumptions. Everyone agrees we need more cells but their remains uncertainty about which form/architecture they will take. A Q&A session delves further into the topic, exploring many of the significant factors affecting the numbers.
I had the pleasure to provide this keynote at Deutsche Telekom AG Spectrum Summit 2022, talking about the enterprise value of being the best mobile network in a market or the word, as well as what it takes to make it to the top of the top mobile networks in the world.
I great privilege to end Ampleon Technical Conference 2021 (Nijmegen, Netherlands) with a keynote contribution on what makes Telco tick and more on what to expect from real 5G. It was as well more than 20 years since I had seen many of my old Philips colleagues (now Ampleon) which made this event very special for me as well. Of course, also super cool to see the innovation level and relevance to our deployed RAN infrastructure.
Introduction to Artificial Intelligence. Not complex and should be relative easy to follow. Be aware that due to its high levelness (and no voice over) some care should be taken by the simplified examples used.
In connection with the EU Water Project awarded to CNR Catania, I gave this inspirational talk to Physics Students at Catania University and old research colleagues on how to transition from Academia to the often very non-scientific world of Corporation. How to keep your sanity, curiosity (i.e., “But Why?”) and continue to have fun throughout your career.
This presentation was given at our Big Data Days Event. The presentation provides a comprehensive (albeit high level) view of the important parts of Big Data in Network Technology.
Inspirational talk on AI (artificial intelligence) and machine learning, i.e., how to give birth to an AI. Introductory and intentionally kept simple for non experts and non technical executives. Care should be taken not too over interpret some of the intentional simplified statements in the presentation.
Delivered at the Network & Services Management Conference in Bonn, Germany on December 6th 2016. It comprises Deutsche Telekom's strategy and vision as it relates to real time network & services management and aggressive automation through AI and applied machine learning. It is fairly high-level but does include reference for further study and read-up, particular towards IETF and RTC publications.
Many of the topics addressed in this presentation can also be found in explained in more detail at my Blog http://techneconomyblog.com/
Gave this presentation at the Telecoms World Middle East 2014, 29th September. Had a lot of fun putting this work together and got me thinking a lot about the future of networking and the challenges we (Telcos) will be facing in preparing our networks for the next thing. This is a bout the Next Thing although its in reality "hitting" us now.
Have fun and Enjoy!
In case you have any questions or comments don't hesitate to get back to me.
My first Qtel Group Keynote address at the Telecoms World Middle East 2012 conference in Dubai. Its been great fun to do this parting with Europe analysis and the Outlook for the next 8 years. As I will not be totally retired by 2020 please remember that you will be able to hold me accountable for some of my predictions ;-) The Good Ones, The Bad Ones and for sure The Ugly Ones ... Enjoy and shoot back!
Delivered this presentation at the Informa's Pricing Mobile Broadband conference 26 & 27th August 2012 in London. While some of the slides are similar to the ones in my Mind Share document you will find new slides and re-worked material giving another twist to Right Pricing Mobile Broadband. Enjoy and should you have any questions/comments just get in touch! Don't be a stranger!
De-risking the broadband business model was presented at Informa's Industry Outlook 2012. The starting point summarizes the challenges the incumbent Telco is facing with the emergence of the smartphone, mobile applications and social media. Then it takes you to the Digital Agenda 2020 for Europe and inspects what needs to happen to make it come through.
I facilitated a discussion on "Right pricing LTE … ." @ Informa's Mind Share sessions at LTE World Summit, 22th May 2012, Barcelona, Spain. I should emphasize that this presentation really is a Technologist's view on mobile data pricing and not that of a Pricing Professional (whatever that might mean) responsible for pricing today's (maybe even tomorrows) mobile data products.
Had the pleasure to deliver the key note presentation at Informa's 3G, HSPA & LTE Optimization conference in Prague. Great event with many very important presentations.
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Spotlight Webinar Dec 2014David Chambers
Leading Small Cell Industry Analysts Caroline Gabriel and Joe Madden present their latest Small Cell 5 year forecasts, together with their underlying assumptions. Everyone agrees we need more cells but their remains uncertainty about which form/architecture they will take. A Q&A session delves further into the topic, exploring many of the significant factors affecting the numbers.
I had the pleasure to provide this keynote at Deutsche Telekom AG Spectrum Summit 2022, talking about the enterprise value of being the best mobile network in a market or the word, as well as what it takes to make it to the top of the top mobile networks in the world.
I great privilege to end Ampleon Technical Conference 2021 (Nijmegen, Netherlands) with a keynote contribution on what makes Telco tick and more on what to expect from real 5G. It was as well more than 20 years since I had seen many of my old Philips colleagues (now Ampleon) which made this event very special for me as well. Of course, also super cool to see the innovation level and relevance to our deployed RAN infrastructure.
Keynote presentation at Day 2 Telecoms Europe 5G Conference. Describing, my view of the 5G standalone deployment dynamics, best timing and what benefits to customers and ourselves (MNOs) to expect. I genuinely believe that to have a successful 5G Core SA deployment we need to learn from New IT cloud native transformation journeys.
Contribution to Informa's Telco AI World Summit 2020, talking about driving data-powered innovation and automation at pace and scale. Looking Telco automation and AI frameworks working towards Zero Touch (autonomous network operations) with Zero Defects and Zero Complaints. If you are interested in a copy or want to discuss furher don't be shy reach out.
I developed this presentation to discuss the framework for automation and autonomic operations in particular in the Finance domain. It is high level introductory but includes guidance of how to best select AI and RPA projects with higher implementation success rates. If you are interested in a copy dont be shy! Reach out!
I gave this presentation at Deutsche Telekom AG's Digital Ethics Conference in Bonn on March 13 2019. It provides the background for how biases may occur in machine learning systems and what may go wrong if not corrected (or minimized).
This collection of slides are meant as a starting point and tutorial for the ones who want to understand AI Ethics and in particular the challenges around bias and fairness. Furthermore, I have also included studies on how we as humans perceive AI influence in our private as well as working lives.
My keynote from this weeks (June 12, 2018) 5G World conference in London. I focus here on AI for Telcos and in particular what can be done in the network and IT parts of the network. Making the point that there remains a lot of low hanging fruits which are simpler and easier to solve than present day image and NLP challenges. It is amazing how much you can do with fairly simple ML architectures with out going to state-of-art DL frameworks.
Had the great privilege to deliver this presentation at one of Europe's finest alternative tech conferences. Enjoyed it immensely. Check it out http://brainbar.com/#speakers and join next year!
Keynote presentation at our Magyar Telekom "AI for Everyone" conference in Budapest at 21st of March 2017.
You will find a the blog companion here: https://aistrategyblog.com/ which provides insights into how we humans perceive AI. Enjoy the read if you get there.
If you would like to have the presentation or have any questions please get in touch, don't be shy!
My presentation on the road to 5G at the 24th EMEA CTO Telecoms Forum. January 29th 2018, Berlin, Germany. 5G and AI has nothing to do with magic. They are real technologies. Why wait for 5G? Get started on LTE and on the path of conversion. Why AI, or more accurately machine learning, and intelligent automation is going to be crucial for managing an increasingly complex networked ultra-converged technology landscape.
If you want a copy please dont be a strange get in touch!
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
Generating a custom Ruby SDK for your web service or Rails API using Smithyg2nightmarescribd
Have you ever wanted a Ruby client API to communicate with your web service? Smithy is a protocol-agnostic language for defining services and SDKs. Smithy Ruby is an implementation of Smithy that generates a Ruby SDK using a Smithy model. In this talk, we will explore Smithy and Smithy Ruby to learn how to generate custom feature-rich SDKs that can communicate with any web service, such as a Rails JSON API.
Software Delivery At the Speed of AI: Inflectra Invests In AI-Powered QualityInflectra
In this insightful webinar, Inflectra explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming software development and testing. Discover how AI-powered tools are revolutionizing every stage of the software development lifecycle (SDLC), from design and prototyping to testing, deployment, and monitoring.
Learn about:
• The Future of Testing: How AI is shifting testing towards verification, analysis, and higher-level skills, while reducing repetitive tasks.
• Test Automation: How AI-powered test case generation, optimization, and self-healing tests are making testing more efficient and effective.
• Visual Testing: Explore the emerging capabilities of AI in visual testing and how it's set to revolutionize UI verification.
• Inflectra's AI Solutions: See demonstrations of Inflectra's cutting-edge AI tools like the ChatGPT plugin and Azure Open AI platform, designed to streamline your testing process.
Whether you're a developer, tester, or QA professional, this webinar will give you valuable insights into how AI is shaping the future of software delivery.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Transcript: Selling digital books in 2024: Insights from industry leaders - T...BookNet Canada
The publishing industry has been selling digital audiobooks and ebooks for over a decade and has found its groove. What’s changed? What has stayed the same? Where do we go from here? Join a group of leading sales peers from across the industry for a conversation about the lessons learned since the popularization of digital books, best practices, digital book supply chain management, and more.
Link to video recording: https://bnctechforum.ca/sessions/selling-digital-books-in-2024-insights-from-industry-leaders/
Presented by BookNet Canada on May 28, 2024, with support from the Department of Canadian Heritage.
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a buttonDianaGray10
Here is something new! In our next Connector Corner webinar, we will demonstrate how you can use a single workflow to:
Create a campaign using Mailchimp with merge tags/fields
Send an interactive Slack channel message (using buttons)
Have the message received by managers and peers along with a test email for review
But there’s more:
In a second workflow supporting the same use case, you’ll see:
Your campaign sent to target colleagues for approval
If the “Approve” button is clicked, a Jira/Zendesk ticket is created for the marketing design team
But—if the “Reject” button is pushed, colleagues will be alerted via Slack message
Join us to learn more about this new, human-in-the-loop capability, brought to you by Integration Service connectors.
And...
Speakers:
Akshay Agnihotri, Product Manager
Charlie Greenberg, Host
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a button
Growth Pains: How mobile networks will supply data capacity for 2020
1. Growth Pains: How networks will
supply data capacity for 2020
Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen
Head of Technology Office,
Group Technology.
Ooredoo
2. The New Maya’s?
2 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
3. Are you worried?
90+% GROWTH CELLULAR DATA GROWTH
MEA 176%! YoY
(2011-2012)
CELLULAR DATA GROWTH
MEA 130%! GAGR
(2011-2013)
Exponential
CELLULAR DATA GROWTH
MEA 93%! YoY
Growth!
(2012-2013)
CELLULAR DATA GROWTH
MEA 90%! CAGR
(2011-2017)
Should you be concerned?
Source: Cisco 2011 – 2017 Mobile
3 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
4. Super much more mobile data traffic
Illustration
MEA
2011 - 2016
Average Demanded Mbps per Sector
×2.5 versus Average Supplied Mbps
Date Revenues
3 TIMES MORE
SPECTRUM
EFFICIENCY SUPPLY
SITES
SUPPLY
×30
Data Volume
Note: assuming largely U900 based network grids with 70% load
and 2 10 – 2 15 MHz available. Average supplied throughput is cell
average. For MEA 2012 assumed to have 100 thousand Node-Bs
installed which is assumed doubled to 200 thousand by 2017.
Sources: Pyramid Research, Cisco VNI and various others.
4 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
5. Cisco VNI for MEA ... Penta1 byte society?
2012 = 50 PB 2017 = 860 PB
1 Million Blu-ray discs 17+ Million Blu-ray discs
per month per month
Per Node-B per Day:
at least
you should
be concerned!
Ca. 100 Thousand Node-Bs Min. 200 Thousand Node-Bs
Ca. ½ Blue-ray disc Ca. 4 Blue-ray discs
Average Node-B throughput 6 Mbps Average Node-B throughput 37 Mbps!!!!
1A Penta Byte is 1,000,000,000,000,000 (15 zeros) Bytes
Note: assuming double layer Blue-ray of 50GB capacity.
5 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
6. Growing pains...a sense of urgency?
MORE & BETTER SPECTRUM REQUIRED.
QUANTUM-LEAPING EFFECTIVE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY.
MANY MORE SITES REQUIRED.
6 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
7. Growth ... the ugly, the bad and the good.
CAGR REFS TO YEAR 1 (THE NEW MAYA’s)
176%
YoY GROWTH RATE
DEMAND
SUPPLY
131%
ITS VERY NORMAL TO PRESENT
116%
A DEMAND GROWTH RATE 107%
99%
WITHOUT 91%
85%
79%
73%
- REFERENCE
- MENTION OF SUPPLY SIDE
THOUGH SUCH A NUMBER
IS IN ALL EFFECT
OF LITTLE MEANING. 176% 93% 90% 83% 68% 54% 53% 42% 35%
Yr1 Yr10
Be careful & critical when faced with growth rates ...
The New Maya’s might be at playing at your cognitive bias.
7 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
8. Growth ... is the sky the limit?
LIMITED?
?
Technology Usage
adaptation Adaptation
#Users Usage per User
8 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
9. Growth ... technology adaptation.
Population
Availability
Economics
LIMITED! 2017: 45+% of MEA1
Technology
adaptation
#Users 2013: ca. 30% of MEA1
on 3G or better
1 Pyramid Research MEA.
9 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
10. Growth ... usage adaptation.
Pricing
Use Cases
Cellular off-load
Convenience
CELLULAR TV
20 hrs. per week TV viewing Cloud
? Technology
Spectral capacity
Network Speed
@ 1Mbps unicast stream
Device performance
20 GB per Month per user Transport infrastructure
2017: 1.5 GB Cellular!
LIMITED?
Cellular Usage
Adaptation
Usage per User 2013: 300 MB Cellular!
per Month per User in MEA1
1 Cisco VNI MEA
10 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
11. MEA mobile data growth.
Illustration
MEA ~ to CEE 2017
Penta-Byte per month 40% of USA in 2017
2013 15% of APAC in 2017
<2011
2010
Cisco VNI
<2011
MEA
Pyramid Research 4Q12?
MEA 2Q12
2007
2Q11
2012
2Q10
2010
USA reach this
MB-level in 2011
Mobile broadband uptake in %. Mega-Byte per subs per month
Sources: Pyramid Research data until 2017 & Cisco VNI for MEA 2011 to 2017. Note: The Flags
illustrates what year a certain value was reached by that given country compared to MEA projections.
11 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
12. MEA growth & diffusion
UMTS will peak
at 50% penetration.
Billions of Subscriptions
50%
2G
2G remains for a
3G
(too) long time LTE
tying up
valuable spectrum!
Sources: Pyramid Research data until 2017; after 2017 authors own assessment based
on technology growth and diffusion dynamics.
12 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
13. Why MEA Growth might be different?
Illustration
PREPAID
GROWTH
DYNAMICS
13 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
14. Western Europe ... They have had it!
Illustration
2020
1.7 0.9
2012
2.1 1.9 0.91
1.6 0.8
2.33 5.4 81% <100%
PHH DHH FBB M2M
2008
2.0 1.2 0.47
1.5 0.7 2.36 4.1 63% ~10% Icon
PHH DHH FBB M2M
TV PC
1.9 0.4 0.00
Mobile subs Smartphone Tablet
2.37 2.6 51% <2% People Display HH with HH with
per HH per HH Fixed BB M2M
PHH DHH FBB M2M Subscr.
Note: HH stands for House Holds.
14 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
15. MEA ... We want connectivity!
Illustration 3+ number of Displays
8+ Smartphones increase 2020
0.33 0.9
Doubling of Displays
40 Smartphones increase
2012
4.8 3.3 0.5
0.30 0.6
4.66 5.0 5% <5?%
PHH DHH FBB M2M
2008
3.5 0.4 0.1
0.29 0.4 4.70 1.4 3% ~0% Icon
PHH DHH FBB M2M
TV PC
2.2 0.01 0.00
Mobile subs Smartphone Tablet
4.69 0.7 2% ca. 0% People Display HH with HH with
per HH per HH Fixed BB M2M
PHH DHH FBB M2M Subscr.
Note: HH stands for House Holds.
15 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
16. The mobile broadband journey!
Voice revenue decline (likely faster than data revenue uptake)
Messaging revenue decline (with Smartphones & OTT uptake)
Cash and margin pressure from new technology introduction.
Cash and margin pressure from sustaining data demand.
16 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
17. The Ugly: Telco-OTT Challenge ...
Illustration
LEGACY VOICE WEU
LEGACY MESSAGING
Between 2011 - 2021 WEU
MEA Between 2011 - 2021
Between 2011 - 2021
-30%
-50%
-15%
MEA
Between 2011 - 2021
+20%?
*
Sources: Pyramid Research (until 2017) and other analyst projections.
(*) It is hard to believe that SMS revenues will grow in MEA. Will depend a lot on Smartphone
penetration and mobile data deployment.
17 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
19. The Good: mobile data revenue growth ...
×180
WEU
Illustration Between 2011 - 2021
180 Million Subs
×2.5 On very dense networks
BUT MEA
Between 2011 - 2021
based on 1800/2100 grids
1.6 Billion Subs
On fairly coarse networks ×5
based on 900 grids
DATA VOLUME Comfortable & sustainable
Network Challenges (The Bad?) Network Basis for
coping with
to be overcome
Future Growth.
to cope with
Future Growth.
Sources: Pyramid Research (until 2017) and other analyst projections.
19 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
20. Capacity fundamentals
CAPACITY Ci = BANDWIDTH Bi × EFFICIENCY Ei × CELLS Ni
MHz Mbps per MHz per Cell #
Business as Usual New spectrum New technologies New macro
× (VERY) COSTLY BaU (COSTLY) VERY COSTLY
Innovation Re-farming Improvements Small-cells
× COMPLEX + EFFICIENT BaU (COSTLY) (VERY) COSTLY
Radical Spectrum sharing Spectrum sharing Site sharing
COMPLEX BUT EFFICIENT EFFICIENT
Leapfrog Network Capacity & Quality within Financial KPIs
20 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
21. Spectrum fundamentals
SPECTRUM ACQUISITION
SPECTRUM RETENTION
SPECTRUM PERFECTION
21 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
22. MEA state of mobile broadband 2020
CAPACITY Ci = BANDWIDTH Bi × EFFICIENCY Ei × CELLS Ni
MHz Mbps per MHz per Cell #
Demand in 2020 to 2012 ratio (Cisco VNI for MEA).
50 × (CAGR 63%)
Supply in 2020 to 2012 ratio
4–8× 1.5 × 2- 5×
Macro-based
9 – 60 × Low & high Incl. LTE, but
× ( Ksmall-cell >1) ×
frequency blend efficiency blend
Incl. small-cells
2012 Utilization Compensated Demand (i.e., directly comparable to Supply)
10 – 20 ×
2020 Mobile Broadband Networks in MEA likely to cope with expected demand
BUT ONLY WITH MUCH MORE SPECTRUM & MANY MORE SITES
NOTE: It should be well understood that there is a possible disconnect between demand
& supply and that to make the two comparable the utilization needs to be considered.
22 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
23. Spectrum acquisition & retention
.
23 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
24. Spectrum perfection
Illustration
LTE
TDD
UMTS
GSM
Mobile Data Mobile Data Mobile Data Capacity overlay &
10MHz 10MHz 75 (40) MHz Small Cells
NOT macro-option
4 – 7.5
+2600MHz (NEW)
+2100MHz (NEW)
1800MHz REFARM
900MHz REFARM
+800MHz (NEW)
TYPICAL OPERATOR SPECTRUM POSITION IN MEA
NOTE: I am assuming that E-GSM @ 900MHz has been implemented.
24 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
25. Spectrum re-farming and migration dynamics.
Illustration
Customer and Technology migration dynamics
100%
80%
LTE
60%
No 2G adds
40% 3G
20%
2G 2G buy-out
0%
TIME
Decline growth
Spectrum management dynamics
LTE 2G 3G 2G LTE 3G
800 MHz 900 MHz 1800 MHz 2100 MHz
NOTE: The above is not an emerging MEA example. Also not ethat spectral re-farming to UMTS
requires that there is multiples of 5MHz available.
25 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
26. Spectrum efficiency
MODERNIZATION
4
MULTIPLEXING GAIN
ANTENNA INNOVATION
CUSTOMER MIGRATION
YOUR NETWORK ON LATEST & GREATEST TECHNOLOGY ?
IF YOUR CUSTOMERS ARE NOT! … SO WHAT!
26 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
27. Need for (small) cells … Oh yes!
CAPACITY Ci = BANDWIDTH Bi × EFFICIENCY Ei × CELLS Ni
MHz Mbps per MHz per Cell #
2011 Simplified Illustration
Supplied (max)
2×10 MHz HSPA+ 42 DC Urban “hot” zone
DL ca. 10 Gbps @ 2.1GHz DL 0.97 / UL 0.34 1,000 Macro Cells1
UL ca. 3 Gbps
×15 ×4 LTE ×1.5 LTE ×2.5 LTE
2020
LTE Demand 2×20 MHz LTE 2x2 (cat. 3) Urban “hot” zone
@ 1800MHz DL 1.45 / UL 0.86 Up-to 2,500 Cells 2
DL 100 Gbps + 2x20 MHz +1,500 on-top
UL 30 Gbps @ 2.6GHz of exiting network
Small cells required!!!
CAGR ca. 35% 2 Femto-cell off-load!!!
1 Urban “hot” zone cell is defined as a cell with a range less than 500 meter,
2 Assuming 70% load as design rule.
27 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
28. MEA needs for MHz & Sites
How many new sites?
IF
Maximum 2 25 MHz 1
Economics cannot allow for
Eff: 0.8 – 1.5 Mbps/MHz/Cell these site numbers if macro!
Assuming Cisco VNI for MEA
Uncertainty 50k sites & 2 yrs. Demand for small cells and
alternative off-load techniques
How much additional MHz?
IF
Never more than 200K sites
Eff: 0.8 – 1.5 Mbps/MHz/Cell
Assuming Cisco VNI for MEA
Uncertainty 10 MHz & 2 yrs.
Realistic for operators to acquire
additional 2×40 MHz
Also highly likely to be blend of
low & high frequencies.
1 This could for example correspond to 2x10 MHz @ 900MHz & 2x15 MHz @ 2100MHz.
28 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
29. Economics of providing lots of capacity
BANDWIDTH Bi × EFFICIENCY Ei × CELLS Ni
MHz Mbps per MHz per Cell #
4–8× TCO 1.5 × TCO 2 – 5+ × TCO
• New Spectrum. +++ • Modernization. ++ • Macro Cell Splits. +++
• Spectral re-farming. n • Higher order MiMo. ++ • Small Cell ++
• Accelerated customer ++ • Beam forming (AAA). ++ deployment.
migration (re-farm). • Cognitive Radio. + • Cellular + WiFi +
• Carrier Aggregation. n • Carrier Aggregation. n hybrids.
• Spectrum Sharing. -- • Coordinated Multi- n • Off-loading to WiFi & -
Point (coMP) Tx/Rx. Femto-cells.
• Spectrum Sharing. -- • Network Sharing --
HIGH CAPEX (NEW SPTRM) BaU / HIGHER CAPEX HIGH TO VERY HIGH CAPEX
HIGH OPEX (MKT INVEST) LOW OPEX EXPOSURE. HIGH TO VERY HIGH OPEX
NOTE: TCO nomenclature is the following: (+++) VERY HIGH, (++) HIGHER, (+) HGH,
(n) neutral, (-) LOW TCO / POS NPV & (--) VERY LOW TCO / POS NPV.
29 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
30. Best place for small cells … at peoples home?
Illustration
Up-to 80% of all
cellular data traffic
generated in no
more than 3 cells.
data voice
00:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 17:00 22:00
Femto Cell Small Cells Femto Cell
@Home On the @ Work On the @Home
(1 – 2 Cells) Go (2 – 4 Cells) Go (2 – 3 Cells)
NOTE: WiFi is just a bridge to better cellular small-network systems become main stream
with controlable spectrum assets and E2E Customer Experience Management.
30 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
31. Economics of small cells? *
Extension of
existing infrastructure
more economical than
new Small-Cell Network
(if the choice is there!)
TCO Breakpoint 1
ca. 20 Small-cell Nodes
(compared to new macro-site!)
* Note: the above is based on WEU cost distribution. Differences are likely to occur for
other markets / regions, 1 Based on WEU cost structure.
31 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
32. Small cells scaling challenges - Capex
Illustration
Equipment
100 per unit <2 per unit 30k Macro Equipment
Core
transport 6k annualized Capex
equipment Feasible < 120 annualized Capex
+ antenna
? < 600 per unit Small-cell Node
civil works
Similarly
50 Node Small-cell CW should be
Macro-site
Small-Cell network < 1,200 per unit Small-cell Node 1
Annualized
Capex Annualized Capex
LARGE SCALE SMALL-CELL DEPLOYMENT REQUIRE
a QUANTUM-LEAP in ECONOMICS of scale & DEPLOYMENT INNOVATION.
1 this
is equivalent to no more than 60 hours of technical labor in US not considering
materials.
32 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
33. Small cells scaling challenges - Opex
Illustration
Rental:
100 per unit
energy <2 per unit Macro lease 10k require
Small-cell node unit lease to be
O&M no more than
transport
Feasible < 200 per anno!
rental
? Transport:
Macro transport 8.5k require
Small-cell node unit transport
Macro-site 50 Node
solution to be better than
Annual Small-Cell network
< 170 per anno.
Opex Annual Opex
OPEX SCALING is one of the BIGGEST CHALLENGES for
LARGE-SCALE SMALL-CELL NETWORK DEPLOYMENT.
33 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
34. What should we be passionate about
SPECTRUM PERFECTION, PERFECTION & PERFECTION.
EARLY SITE DENSITY PLANNING CRUCIAL FOR SUSTAINING GROWHT1
BE RADICAL ADAPTING INNOVATIVE CAPACITY ENHANCING STRATEGIES
1 See Refs by Iris Barcia & Simon Chapman (Keima Wireless, http://www.slideshare.net/zahidtg/radio-
challenges-and-opportunities-for-large-scale-small-cell-deployments
34 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
35. MEA 2020 cellular data challenges.
MOBILE BROADBAND NETWORKS WILL BE THE MAIN GATEWAY TO INTERNET.
LACK OF ECONOMICAL HIGH QUALITY TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
COULD SLOW DOWN BROADBAND GROWTH.
EVEN WITH SPECTRUM AVAILABILITY & PACED TECHNOLOGY MIGRATION
CELLULAR SITES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS MEA COMING YEARS.
35 March 19, 2013 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA 2013.
Maybe do a cognitive bias experiment related to growth rates?
Animation wise … initially I ll be showing 176% CAGR (nothing else). Then showing the demand curve, then the rest of the CAGR and the annual growth. Finally I ll show the Supply curve. Make the point that it has little point in just talking about a growth rate without specifying the reference point.