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The ultra-efficient network factory: network sharing and
other means to leapfrog operator efficiencies.
Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.
Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen,
Technology, Deutsche Telekom AG.
Deutsche Telecom … Mobile Business …


      100+m mobile subscribers over 100+ thsd radio nodes.


 GSMEDGE, UMTSHSPA+ (42), LTE @ 800MHz2.6GHz & WiFi.


        Network partnerships in UK, Poland, Cz, Austria, …


  Last 10yrs more than doubled the size of its mobile networks ….




                               Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   2
Transform
    or
  Perish




  Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   3
The profitability challenge…
NOT only a problem for mature markets!

                                                                                       Aug. 2011 China Unicom, at the
                                                                                       moment only Chinese carrier selling
      Feb. 2011 Tellabs reports                                                        iPhone in the country, H1 profit
      mobile operators profitability                                                   down 9% …. has been struggling
      challenged within 2 - 3                                                          to grow its profitability due to
      years, and mobile internet is                                                    heavy subsidies2.
      forcing operators to transform
      their networks and business
      models 1.                                                                                                    Nov. 2011 Bharti Airtel
                                                        Nov. 2011 South Korea’s KT                                 reports profit dip again, in the
                                                        reported a 41% slump in Q3 net                             seventh quarter4.
                                                        profit , as a result of discounts
                                                        and other initiatives to lure more
                                                        smartphone users6.

  Oct 2011 China Telecom Corp
  reported third-quarter profit that                                                                 Oct. 2011 Idea Celluar profit
  missed analysts' estimates, as add                                                                 down 40.3% QoQ, despite
  itional 3G users increased the comp                                                                revenue increases of 13.2%5.
  any's costs3



      1 Tellabs; 2 Reuters; 3 China   Daily; 4 Business Review India; 5 MediaNama; 6 Telecom Asia;

                                                                                    Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   4
Mobile growth in perspective.
Globally Cost per Customer increased 8×, ARPU remained
constant (or declined) with a doubling of mobile subscriptions1.

                                                                    Example: Emerging Asia

                                                             Profitability drop of almost 10%.
                                                             Opex growth faster than Revenue.
                                                             Highest ARPU YoY decline.
                                                             ca. 70% mobile penetration today.
                                                             Main 3G growth still ahead.



                         Emerging Market Growth on expense of profitability?
                             Long-term outlook could be troublesome.

     1 Looking   over the period 2005 to 2011.

                                                 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   5
When data demand exceeds spectral efficiency.
”Houston we have problems”.
 Illustration
                                      10       20      40       60       85      120 120 120 120 120 120                    Total spectrum in use
                            15
                                                Effective Spectral Efficiency (*)

                                                Spectral Demand

                                                Spectral Demand Limited

   Proportional 10
    increases                        HSPA  HSPA+  LTE                                      LTE-adv
    over 2010

                              5

                                                                                                 Not good
                                                                                                  at all!!
                              0
                                   2010              2012              2014               2016       2018          2020


      An operator can NOT get enough of the (RIGHT) spectrum.


     (*) realWireless report for Ofcom,: 4G Capacity Gains, Final Report, January 2011.

                                                                               Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   6
Cost-optimized deployment models (1 of 2).
Availability of a wide range of frequencies essential for more
profitable & economical network deployment.

 Throughput / Capacity
                1.8 - 3.6 GHz
                  Typical BWs/Operator > 40 MHz
            Hot- small cells & smart-antenna systems.
           Spots
            1.8
             To
            3.6                                  Rural Fixed-like
            GHz                             Typical BWs/Operators < 20 MHz


           Urban – Suburban:                                       LTE connectivity

             Up-to 2100 MHz
           Rural / Nation-wide: Digital dividend up-to 900 MHz
                                                                                                Illustration


                                       Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   7
Cost-optimized deployment models (2 of 2).
Small cells are an essential tool to optimize RAN deployment
and mitigate the mobile data capacity crunch.
      Small Cell off-loading strategies.                                Small cell benefits.

 Illustration                                                  Coverage & Capacity optimization.
                                                          Often only alternative to capacity addition.
                                                             Favorable Capex & Opex economics.
                                                                New business models emerging.
                 Small cell
  macro                             macro



  Small cell      Small cell                          Small cell                 Small cell                Small cell
                                Small cell
                  macro
                                                                       What to look out for!

                                                    Backhaul challenge!
                                                    Interference issues with macro network.
                  Small cell                        Radio planning complexity.
  macro                             macro


                                             Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.     8
Backhaul requirements will pressure the Economics.
HSPA+ & LTE’s power-full air-interface, i.e., 100+ Mbps, will
require extensive backhaul fiber deployment.

    LTE air-interface
 30mean to 100+peak Mbps
       (per sector)


                                     100 Gbps                            Evolved
          eNode                       DWDM                               Packet
                                                                          Core
                           100
                           GbE

          FTTS1 100+ Mbps
 eNodes per element   32:1   320:1     3200:1

     BH Throughput    3+     32+        320+           In Gbps
                                                                                              Illustration


                                     Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   9
The backhaul challenge … macro vs micro.
Distribute mobile broadband traffic differently.
 Illustration

 LTE provides up-to 100 Mbps                                         AP (e.g., WiFi / Femto,..)

          per sector


                     Node

                                      FTTS1 100+ Mbps
                                                                                                             100+ to
                                                                                                             40 Mbps
   300 – 7,000 active devices                                      Home Environment
     per macro-cellular node                                 with ca. 2.3 people per Home 1
      (dense-urban / urban)                                connected to Fiber, Cable or VDSL.

              100+ Mbps                                                   Up-to 100+ Mbps
              shared with                                                    shared by
   up to 7,000 devices.                                                      2+ people.
    1   Average for Western Europe.
                                             Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   10
The mobile profitability & cash crunch.

             Mobile Profit & Loss - Today                                                              Mobile Profit & Loss - Tomorrow

                    Total Revenue                                      ↓                                          70% of Total Revenue Today


−      Usage Cost (Voice dominated < 25%)                                       ↓                                                                           Reduce
−       Market Invest SAC ↔ SRC (< 20%)                                 ↑                                                                                    Cost
−              Net Device Cost (>10%)
                                                                        ↓                                                                                    with
                                                                                                        New business, operation
−               Personnel Cost (<15%)                                     →                             and cooperation models                              48%! 2
−            Technology Cost (15% to 20%)                               ↑
−                  Other Cost (< 10%)                                     →                   =         Maintain Today’s EBITDA of ca. 37%

=             EBITDA (WEU ca. 37% 1)                                   ↓                                          New Business Models
−   Network depreciation (ca. <20% of Revenue)                                  ↓           Network sharing.
                                                                                            Network Factory / Network spin-off.
−               Spectrum Amortization                                                       Increased purchasing power
                                                                                                      Procurement Industry Alliances.
−      Capex (ca. 10% to 25% of Revenue)                               ↑                    New partnership models – de-risk mobile.


         1 BoA ML Global Wireless Matrix 1Q11, margin data for 4Q 2010, 2 math looks like Ot2 /Ot1 = 1 - R/(1-Margin) with t1 & t2 being initial time and a time after
         initial time, R is the revenue difference between t2 and t1.
                                                                                   Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.                 11
Technology cost distribution – the helicopter view.

                                                                                                                                                         Illustration
                                                                                                       RAN
Ca. 30%                                                                                               Ca. 65%
        IT &                                                                               Other Costs                             Personnel
     Platforms                                                                             incl. Energy                              Costs
                                           RAN             Services,
                                                                                                               10%          15%                           Backhaul
                                                           Maintenance
                                                           & Repair.                                                                                       Cost 1
     Core                                                                                                                                 >10%
                                                                                      <25%

< 15%                                                                                                                                                      Data growth
                                                                                                                      40%


                                                                                                     Rental &
                                                                                                        Leasing                  1         2

                                                                                                                                        spectral limitations
                                                                           No spectral limitations

          Note   RAN: Radio Access Network includes both 2G and 3G Opex.   1   With increasing leased line based transport this proportion will grow substantially in the future.

                                                                                     Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.                         12
The ugly tail …
Should drive sharing in low-traffic areas
                                                                                                                           Illustration
    Cumulated Revenue (Traffic)


                                  0%
                                                                                   Low profitability
                                                                                        sites
                                  20%
                                             50% revenue ≈ 10% sites
                                                                                              50% sites takes
                                  40%                                                      less than 10% revenue


                                  60%
                                                            Top 30% sites ≈ 80% revenue.

                                  80%


                             100%
                                        0%                            50%                                                100%

                                                                    Sites

                                                                Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.    13
Stages of sharing benefits.
The best sharing strategy depends on the business cycle and
technology age.
             < 5 years                      5+ years                                     > 5+ years


      LTE                                                                                 GSM – UMTS
                       UMTS                  UMTS - GSM
                                                                                       (LTE piggybacking)

         Rollout Phase                         Steady State                                  Modernization
         UK: 3G T-Mobile – 3 UK   UK. T-Mobile UK – Orange JV (EE Ltd).          Poland: PTC – Orange incl. LTE


                      Passive sharing: Site Lease & Civil Works,               Illustration
          Mast/Tower sharing, Ancillary & Rack sharing, and Backhaul Sharing.
        Active sharing: e.g., Frequencies, TRXs, PAs, Baseband, CPU, ports, ….



     High Capex prevention.         Little Capex benefits.                          Capex prevention.
     Opex prevention.               Opex savings.                                   Opex savings.
     Cash optimized startup.        Significant write-off.                          Minor write-off.
     Best network.                  High re-structuring cost.                       Re-structuring cost.
                                     Extended coverage.                              Instant cell split.
                                                                                      Better network.


                                                 Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   14
Anatomy of network sharing.
RAN sharing guaranties competitive differentiation, operator
independency and vast consumer quality improvements.




• Sharing: Costly Radio Access Network infrastructure will be shared,
• Not shared: All core network and service infrastructures that provides respective
  customers with differentiated services, applications, handsets, rate plans, etc.
• Result: A network with greater capacity (i.e., instant cell split) and improved coverage.


                                          Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   15
Network sharing flavors …
      Site sharing (*)                                           RAN Sharing (*)                                      National Roaming (*)
     Capacity limited                                           Coverage limited                                                      Rural


     HSS
     HLR                   HSS                                    HSS
                                                                  HLR                 HSS                                   HSS
                                                                                                                            HLR                  HSS



    Core                     Core                                Core                   Core                                Core                  Core


    BSC                   BSC                                              BSC                                             BSC                   BSC
    RNC                   RNC                                              RNC                                             RNC                   RNC




  Shared site and passives                                Shared Radio, aggregation                                         Wholesale
 Independent BTS, NB, eNB.                                 & frequencies (optional).                                arrangement, geographical
                                                                                                                           partnership.
  Passive sharing.                                        Active sharing (MOCN1)                                   Geographic sharing.
  shared transport (possible).                            Shared transport.                                        One frequency sufficient.
  Independent frequencies.                                Frequencies sharing.                                     Wholesale/cost-sharing.,

     1 Multi-Operator   Core Network supporting RAN Shairng, (*) For LTE there is no BSC/RNC, core networks connected directly to the eNode-B.

                                                                                Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   16
Partnership with an incumbent operator will provide
the Greenfield better economics and market timing.
             Frequency                Site           Radio          Backhaul           Backbone                Core                BSS
                 (MHz)            (acq. + build)   (electronics)      (transport)        (transport)     (switch & control)     (bill & care)

                  plmn 1

                         plmn 2
                                                                                                              MNO 1
                                                                                                               Core                 BSS
             plmn 1 + plmn 2
              (optional)                            BTS /
                                                   NODE-B
                                                                                                         MNO 2
                                                   eNodeB                                                 Core
                                                                                                                                    BSS


Capex         Efficiency                                                                                      Partly
                                  40%-60%            < 35%          up-to 50%          up-to 50%                               Less likely
prevention     enabler                                                                                       possible

Opex          Efficiency                                               scale              scale               Partly
                                    < 35%          ca. 35%                                                                     Less likely
prevention     enabler                                               discount           discount             possible

Regulatory
                HIGH                 LOW           LOWER              LOWER             LOWER                  HIGH               HIGH
complexity



                                                               Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.           17
Network sharing case study – Poland.
Improving consumer experience at better operational efficiency.
           PTC (DTAG) – Orange (FT)                                                                 Safe for Service by Sharing.
Rural areas                                      PTC           SHARED      Orange

                                                                                               PTC1 & Orange2 to share 10 thousand
 BILL    PRICE       BRAND      SALES        BILL      PRICE      BRAND   SALES                sites, 2G, 3G & LTE radio infrastructure
                                                                                                  as well as spectrum for 3G & LTE.
          SERVICES                                     SERVICES
              CORE                                        CORE

        2G, 3G & LTE RAN incl. BACKHAUL SHARE                                                    Improved coverage, capacity and
  GSM900         UMTS900                     LTE800                   GSM900                    services to the Polish consumer at a
                                                                                                             quality level
Urban areas                                      PTC           SHARED      Orange                 not economical viable standalone.

 BILL    PRICE       BRAND      SALES        BILL      PRICE      BRAND   SALES


          SERVICES                                     SERVICES
                                                                                                                     Benefits.
              CORE                                        CORE                             •    Opex savings.
                                                                                           •    Substantial Capex savings.
        2G, 3G & LTE RAN incl. BACKHAUL SHARE                                                     • Shared Modernization.
    GSM
 900 & 1800
                    UMTS
                  900 & 2100
                                            LTE SHARING
                                        800, 2100 & 2600 MHz
                                                                        GSM
                                                                     900 & 1800
                                                                                                  • Shared LTE deployment.
                                                                                           •    Much better network.
    Note: frequency bands not to scale!


           1 14mio   subscribers (2), 2 14.5mio subscribers (3)

                                                                                    Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   18
Other business models …LTE as a Service.
                   Emerging business models – LTE network factory
  Cash
  optimized
  startup via
  virtualization
  & OTT
  based
  services.
                                                                                           Option:
                                                                                           Small cell centric
                                                                                           startup and
                                                                                           Capacity as a
                                                                                           Service.

                    Provides.                                                  Enablers.
   Attractive (startup) cost economics.                       Profitability & cash crunch.
   Relative low Capex – cash optimized.                       Incumbent spectrum crunch.
   Increased spectral efficiency & utilization.               MVNO / tier-2&3 MNO appetite.




                                             Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   19
Other business models … ultra-efficient transformation.
   Emerging business models – piggybacking on Virtualization & Cloud
                                                                3rd party, media
                                                                companies, MNO/MVNO CDN
                                                                & SDNs.
        3rd parties                                                          3rd parties
                                                                             (supplier)
    delivers BSS /
                                                                             delivers core
        OSS cloud                                                            network
       services to                                                           functionality
    SmartCo (off-                                                            (i.e., HSS, PCRF
         the-shelf)                                                          , etc..)


               Provides.                                                   Enablers.
    Data-only QoS transparent network.                           Regulatory support.
    Network services to MNO & MVNO.                              Spectrum.
    Dedicated OTT network services.                              MNO & MVNO appetite.




                                         Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   20
Key messages.
What we need to be passionate about.


   Utilize technology to achieve the best operational performance


   Network sharing provides cost reduction AND increased quality.


    Think!
    Cloud, Virtualization, Small Cells, Multi-Mode Single RAN, ….


& don’t forget!
    Sharing models for mobile applies to fixed broadband as well.
                                                      Even more so!



                                Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE.   21
Detecon is specialized in providing ICT management
consulting services with the infrastructure of a global player.
                                                                              DeTeCon International GmbH
Detecon advises on the issues of strategy, organization, and
technology design for Telecommunications and IT companies.
                                                                        Contact: Issa Nasser
Established in 1977, Detecon is experienced, thanks to the                          Phone +971 2 4434778
successful realization of more than 6,000 projects.
                                                                                                     Abu Dhabi
                                                                                          United Arab Emirates
Detecon is international, with worldwide representation, clients in
                                                                                               www.detecon.com
165 countries, and employees from more than 30 nations.                                       info@detecon.com

Detecon has in-depth knowledge of the
industry and a consulting approach
oriented towards implementation
and cooperation as partners.

Detecon is part of
Deutsche Telekom Group.




                                                           Detecon Branch Offices


                                                                                        © Detecon        – 22 –
The key value proposition of a mobile network
                       is ....


                                 Freedom


                                                                               & Mobility

Acknowledgement: Dr. Larsen is indebted to Bin Xi, David Haszeldine and        Contact: kim.larsen@telekom.de
Denis Gautheret for their great suggestions and improving this presentation.
Last but not least Dr. Larsen acknowledge his wife Eva Varadi for her great
                                                                               Mobile: +31 6 2409 5202
support and understanding during the creation of this presentation.            http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen

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みなさんこんにちはこれ何文字まで入るの?40文字以下不可とか本当に意味わからないけどこれ限界文字数書いてないからマジでやばい文字数いけるんじゃないの?えこ...
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みなさんこんにちはこれ何文字まで入るの?40文字以下不可とか本当に意味わからないけどこれ限界文字数書いてないからマジでやばい文字数いけるんじゃないの?えこ...
 

Ultra-efficient network factory: Network sharing and other means to leapfrog operator efficiencies.

  • 1. The ultra-efficient network factory: network sharing and other means to leapfrog operator efficiencies. Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology, Deutsche Telekom AG.
  • 2. Deutsche Telecom … Mobile Business … 100+m mobile subscribers over 100+ thsd radio nodes. GSMEDGE, UMTSHSPA+ (42), LTE @ 800MHz2.6GHz & WiFi. Network partnerships in UK, Poland, Cz, Austria, … Last 10yrs more than doubled the size of its mobile networks …. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 2
  • 3. Transform or Perish Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 3
  • 4. The profitability challenge… NOT only a problem for mature markets! Aug. 2011 China Unicom, at the moment only Chinese carrier selling Feb. 2011 Tellabs reports iPhone in the country, H1 profit mobile operators profitability down 9% …. has been struggling challenged within 2 - 3 to grow its profitability due to years, and mobile internet is heavy subsidies2. forcing operators to transform their networks and business models 1. Nov. 2011 Bharti Airtel Nov. 2011 South Korea’s KT reports profit dip again, in the reported a 41% slump in Q3 net seventh quarter4. profit , as a result of discounts and other initiatives to lure more smartphone users6. Oct 2011 China Telecom Corp reported third-quarter profit that Oct. 2011 Idea Celluar profit missed analysts' estimates, as add down 40.3% QoQ, despite itional 3G users increased the comp revenue increases of 13.2%5. any's costs3 1 Tellabs; 2 Reuters; 3 China Daily; 4 Business Review India; 5 MediaNama; 6 Telecom Asia; Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 4
  • 5. Mobile growth in perspective. Globally Cost per Customer increased 8×, ARPU remained constant (or declined) with a doubling of mobile subscriptions1. Example: Emerging Asia Profitability drop of almost 10%. Opex growth faster than Revenue. Highest ARPU YoY decline. ca. 70% mobile penetration today. Main 3G growth still ahead. Emerging Market Growth on expense of profitability?  Long-term outlook could be troublesome. 1 Looking over the period 2005 to 2011. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 5
  • 6. When data demand exceeds spectral efficiency. ”Houston we have problems”. Illustration 10 20 40 60 85 120 120 120 120 120 120 Total spectrum in use 15 Effective Spectral Efficiency (*) Spectral Demand Spectral Demand Limited Proportional 10 increases HSPA  HSPA+  LTE  LTE-adv over 2010 5 Not good at all!! 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 An operator can NOT get enough of the (RIGHT) spectrum. (*) realWireless report for Ofcom,: 4G Capacity Gains, Final Report, January 2011. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 6
  • 7. Cost-optimized deployment models (1 of 2). Availability of a wide range of frequencies essential for more profitable & economical network deployment. Throughput / Capacity 1.8 - 3.6 GHz Typical BWs/Operator > 40 MHz Hot- small cells & smart-antenna systems. Spots 1.8 To 3.6 Rural Fixed-like GHz Typical BWs/Operators < 20 MHz Urban – Suburban: LTE connectivity Up-to 2100 MHz Rural / Nation-wide: Digital dividend up-to 900 MHz Illustration Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 7
  • 8. Cost-optimized deployment models (2 of 2). Small cells are an essential tool to optimize RAN deployment and mitigate the mobile data capacity crunch. Small Cell off-loading strategies. Small cell benefits. Illustration Coverage & Capacity optimization. Often only alternative to capacity addition. Favorable Capex & Opex economics. New business models emerging. Small cell macro macro Small cell Small cell Small cell Small cell Small cell Small cell macro What to look out for! Backhaul challenge! Interference issues with macro network. Small cell Radio planning complexity. macro macro Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 8
  • 9. Backhaul requirements will pressure the Economics. HSPA+ & LTE’s power-full air-interface, i.e., 100+ Mbps, will require extensive backhaul fiber deployment. LTE air-interface 30mean to 100+peak Mbps (per sector) 100 Gbps Evolved eNode DWDM Packet Core 100 GbE FTTS1 100+ Mbps eNodes per element 32:1 320:1 3200:1 BH Throughput 3+ 32+ 320+ In Gbps Illustration Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 9
  • 10. The backhaul challenge … macro vs micro. Distribute mobile broadband traffic differently. Illustration LTE provides up-to 100 Mbps AP (e.g., WiFi / Femto,..) per sector Node FTTS1 100+ Mbps 100+ to 40 Mbps 300 – 7,000 active devices Home Environment per macro-cellular node with ca. 2.3 people per Home 1 (dense-urban / urban) connected to Fiber, Cable or VDSL. 100+ Mbps Up-to 100+ Mbps shared with shared by up to 7,000 devices. 2+ people. 1 Average for Western Europe. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 10
  • 11. The mobile profitability & cash crunch. Mobile Profit & Loss - Today Mobile Profit & Loss - Tomorrow Total Revenue ↓ 70% of Total Revenue Today − Usage Cost (Voice dominated < 25%) ↓ Reduce − Market Invest SAC ↔ SRC (< 20%) ↑ Cost − Net Device Cost (>10%) ↓ with New business, operation − Personnel Cost (<15%) → and cooperation models 48%! 2 − Technology Cost (15% to 20%) ↑ − Other Cost (< 10%) → = Maintain Today’s EBITDA of ca. 37% = EBITDA (WEU ca. 37% 1) ↓ New Business Models − Network depreciation (ca. <20% of Revenue) ↓ Network sharing. Network Factory / Network spin-off. − Spectrum Amortization Increased purchasing power Procurement Industry Alliances. − Capex (ca. 10% to 25% of Revenue) ↑ New partnership models – de-risk mobile. 1 BoA ML Global Wireless Matrix 1Q11, margin data for 4Q 2010, 2 math looks like Ot2 /Ot1 = 1 - R/(1-Margin) with t1 & t2 being initial time and a time after initial time, R is the revenue difference between t2 and t1. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 11
  • 12. Technology cost distribution – the helicopter view. Illustration RAN Ca. 30% Ca. 65% IT & Other Costs Personnel Platforms incl. Energy Costs RAN Services, 10% 15% Backhaul Maintenance & Repair. Cost 1 Core >10% <25% < 15% Data growth 40% Rental & Leasing 1 2 spectral limitations No spectral limitations Note RAN: Radio Access Network includes both 2G and 3G Opex. 1 With increasing leased line based transport this proportion will grow substantially in the future. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 12
  • 13. The ugly tail … Should drive sharing in low-traffic areas Illustration Cumulated Revenue (Traffic) 0% Low profitability sites 20% 50% revenue ≈ 10% sites 50% sites takes 40% less than 10% revenue 60% Top 30% sites ≈ 80% revenue. 80% 100% 0% 50% 100% Sites Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 13
  • 14. Stages of sharing benefits. The best sharing strategy depends on the business cycle and technology age. < 5 years 5+ years > 5+ years LTE GSM – UMTS UMTS UMTS - GSM (LTE piggybacking) Rollout Phase Steady State Modernization UK: 3G T-Mobile – 3 UK UK. T-Mobile UK – Orange JV (EE Ltd). Poland: PTC – Orange incl. LTE Passive sharing: Site Lease & Civil Works, Illustration Mast/Tower sharing, Ancillary & Rack sharing, and Backhaul Sharing. Active sharing: e.g., Frequencies, TRXs, PAs, Baseband, CPU, ports, ….  High Capex prevention.  Little Capex benefits.  Capex prevention.  Opex prevention.  Opex savings.  Opex savings.  Cash optimized startup.  Significant write-off.  Minor write-off.  Best network.  High re-structuring cost.  Re-structuring cost.  Extended coverage.  Instant cell split.  Better network. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 14
  • 15. Anatomy of network sharing. RAN sharing guaranties competitive differentiation, operator independency and vast consumer quality improvements. • Sharing: Costly Radio Access Network infrastructure will be shared, • Not shared: All core network and service infrastructures that provides respective customers with differentiated services, applications, handsets, rate plans, etc. • Result: A network with greater capacity (i.e., instant cell split) and improved coverage. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 15
  • 16. Network sharing flavors … Site sharing (*) RAN Sharing (*) National Roaming (*) Capacity limited Coverage limited Rural HSS HLR HSS HSS HLR HSS HSS HLR HSS Core Core Core Core Core Core BSC BSC BSC BSC BSC RNC RNC RNC RNC RNC Shared site and passives Shared Radio, aggregation Wholesale Independent BTS, NB, eNB. & frequencies (optional). arrangement, geographical partnership.  Passive sharing.  Active sharing (MOCN1)  Geographic sharing.  shared transport (possible).  Shared transport.  One frequency sufficient.  Independent frequencies.  Frequencies sharing.  Wholesale/cost-sharing., 1 Multi-Operator Core Network supporting RAN Shairng, (*) For LTE there is no BSC/RNC, core networks connected directly to the eNode-B. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 16
  • 17. Partnership with an incumbent operator will provide the Greenfield better economics and market timing. Frequency Site Radio Backhaul Backbone Core BSS (MHz) (acq. + build) (electronics) (transport) (transport) (switch & control) (bill & care) plmn 1 plmn 2 MNO 1 Core BSS plmn 1 + plmn 2 (optional) BTS / NODE-B MNO 2 eNodeB Core BSS Capex Efficiency Partly 40%-60% < 35% up-to 50% up-to 50% Less likely prevention enabler possible Opex Efficiency scale scale Partly < 35% ca. 35% Less likely prevention enabler discount discount possible Regulatory HIGH LOW LOWER LOWER LOWER HIGH HIGH complexity Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 17
  • 18. Network sharing case study – Poland. Improving consumer experience at better operational efficiency. PTC (DTAG) – Orange (FT) Safe for Service by Sharing. Rural areas PTC SHARED Orange PTC1 & Orange2 to share 10 thousand BILL PRICE BRAND SALES BILL PRICE BRAND SALES sites, 2G, 3G & LTE radio infrastructure as well as spectrum for 3G & LTE. SERVICES SERVICES CORE CORE 2G, 3G & LTE RAN incl. BACKHAUL SHARE Improved coverage, capacity and GSM900 UMTS900 LTE800 GSM900 services to the Polish consumer at a quality level Urban areas PTC SHARED Orange not economical viable standalone. BILL PRICE BRAND SALES BILL PRICE BRAND SALES SERVICES SERVICES Benefits. CORE CORE • Opex savings. • Substantial Capex savings. 2G, 3G & LTE RAN incl. BACKHAUL SHARE • Shared Modernization. GSM 900 & 1800 UMTS 900 & 2100 LTE SHARING 800, 2100 & 2600 MHz GSM 900 & 1800 • Shared LTE deployment. • Much better network. Note: frequency bands not to scale! 1 14mio subscribers (2), 2 14.5mio subscribers (3) Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 18
  • 19. Other business models …LTE as a Service. Emerging business models – LTE network factory Cash optimized startup via virtualization & OTT based services. Option: Small cell centric startup and Capacity as a Service. Provides. Enablers. Attractive (startup) cost economics. Profitability & cash crunch. Relative low Capex – cash optimized. Incumbent spectrum crunch. Increased spectral efficiency & utilization. MVNO / tier-2&3 MNO appetite. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 19
  • 20. Other business models … ultra-efficient transformation. Emerging business models – piggybacking on Virtualization & Cloud 3rd party, media companies, MNO/MVNO CDN & SDNs. 3rd parties 3rd parties (supplier) delivers BSS / delivers core OSS cloud network services to functionality SmartCo (off- (i.e., HSS, PCRF the-shelf) , etc..) Provides. Enablers. Data-only QoS transparent network. Regulatory support. Network services to MNO & MVNO. Spectrum. Dedicated OTT network services. MNO & MVNO appetite. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 20
  • 21. Key messages. What we need to be passionate about. Utilize technology to achieve the best operational performance Network sharing provides cost reduction AND increased quality. Think! Cloud, Virtualization, Small Cells, Multi-Mode Single RAN, …. & don’t forget! Sharing models for mobile applies to fixed broadband as well. Even more so! Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Broadband MEA, March 26th 2012, Dubai, UAE. 21
  • 22. Detecon is specialized in providing ICT management consulting services with the infrastructure of a global player. DeTeCon International GmbH Detecon advises on the issues of strategy, organization, and technology design for Telecommunications and IT companies. Contact: Issa Nasser Established in 1977, Detecon is experienced, thanks to the Phone +971 2 4434778 successful realization of more than 6,000 projects. Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates Detecon is international, with worldwide representation, clients in www.detecon.com 165 countries, and employees from more than 30 nations. info@detecon.com Detecon has in-depth knowledge of the industry and a consulting approach oriented towards implementation and cooperation as partners. Detecon is part of Deutsche Telekom Group. Detecon Branch Offices © Detecon – 22 –
  • 23. The key value proposition of a mobile network is .... Freedom & Mobility Acknowledgement: Dr. Larsen is indebted to Bin Xi, David Haszeldine and Contact: kim.larsen@telekom.de Denis Gautheret for their great suggestions and improving this presentation. Last but not least Dr. Larsen acknowledge his wife Eva Varadi for her great Mobile: +31 6 2409 5202 support and understanding during the creation of this presentation. http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen