This document outlines a framework for calculating the probability of successfully executing a business software project within estimated time and scope. It considers factors such as the probability of technical success based on confidence in the team and technology, the probability of successful customer adoption based on perceived value, work required, and other factors, and how the number of discrete project components affects probability. It provides questions to assess confidence in the team, technology, perceived value, and perceived work required to determine probabilities. Additional power, culture, personality, and environmental factors are also discussed as potentially impacting the probability of successful adoption.