This document provides an overview of the evolution of information society and information technology. It discusses four phases of information society from the 1960s/1970s to a potential future phase in the 2010s characterized by ubiquitous computing. Each phase is associated with different technologies, uses of information, and policy approaches. The document also discusses models of technological change and debates around "Moore's Law" regarding long-term trends in computing power and their limits.

1. “ All the World’s a Stage” Ian Miles – Manchester Institute of Innovation Research MBS - University of Manchester Ian.Miles@mbs.ac.uk Knowledge Economy and Information Society 2 – Information Society Evolution

2. Course material should be available on webct – but in the meantime go to http:// www.freewebs.com/mioir/keisintro.htm

3. This seminar: Sociotechnical approach to Information Society Technological Revolutions Stages of Information Society? Information Systems Evolution – stages and strategies?

4. Understanding Information Society All economic sectors (and all human activities) involve producing and processing information; and many also require sharing and storing it. Knowledge about information production and processing has accumulated and evolved. Historically there have been major new methods (e.g. writing and arithmetic; abacus and printing; telegraphy and telephony, analogue photography and phonography; radio and TV…) with significant implications for socioeconomic organisation. New IT - electricity  electronics  microelectronics , new devices and ideas like software, dataware (e-content), interactivity, etc.

5. Sociotechnical Approach to Information Society New IT - electricity  electronics  microelectronics , new devices and ideas like software, dataware (e-content), interactivity, etc. Scope for application of New Information and Communication Technologies ( business processes ), new forms of traded information, new communications services ( products ) Potential for change in role and style of information processing in all sectors and in many noneconomic activities ... CHRIS FREEMAN’s classes of Innovation: Incremental ------ Radical ------------ Revolutionary Local, minor change in product or process Substantial change usually based on new understanding Major and wide-ranging change based on breakthroughs of far-reaching significance

6. Revolutionary Technology Carlota Perez : see classic 1981 paper http://www.carlotaperez.org/index.htm – What makes an innovation revolutionary rather than incremental or radical? It needs to be a new “key factor” with properties such as Cheap enough to be widely used (clearly perceived low & descending relative cost) Practically unlimited supply Highly pervasive – i.e. provides widely-useful capability Use is liable to reduce costs of capital, labour & products, & to change them qualitatively Generally socially/politically acceptable

7. An IT Revolution? Dramatic & continuing: power increases (new capabilities), cost decreases Widespread applicability (information & or information processing power) as factor of production Effectively no resource limits (skills??) Little social resistance (around generics - may be contention about specific uses) ACTORS’ PERCEPTIONS - opportunities seized to produce new products and processes, new practices, calculus and “common sense”

8. A Sociotechnical Approach – Eras as related to Technological revolutions: New knowledge of effecting useful transformations  new practices a new heartland technology – when new knowledge produces major improvement in capacity to effect pervasive transformations This promotes dramatic change in availability of a core element of production Meaning the use of new production equipment Organised in new production processes changed logic of production With new products for industrial and consumer use (and often in a leading role – military and other public sector use)

9. Opportunities are grasped … Innovation in and around new IT New processes of production, new products Labour, Capital, Knowledge inputs Changed use of factors of production Changes in organisational structure Changed linkages between organisations Changed consumption … leading to widespread change Not IMPACTS – strategies, counterstrategies, partial knowledge and visions

10. Technological revolutions - social phenomena, involving: New Sociotechnical Constituencies (Molina) Government Action on Innovation and Diffusion New processes, products: proliferating choice New Firms, Industries, Linkages between industries New skills, Management approaches Rhetoric precedes systematic analysis of policy, ethical issues, & wider implications Hype and mythology; Heroes and villains Novel risks; Uncertainties about long-term performance Lengthy learning processes Platforms, standards, dominant designs: Closure of some choices

11. Sociotechnical Approach: Revolutionary technology: new capabilities – but actors have uneven access to knowledge and resources; they have cognitive constraints; and learning processes are important There are real (but evolving) limits to functionality of artefacts and applicability of knowledge Constituencies need to be mobilised to develop and apply knowledge (sometimes against opposition) – it is not costless Materiality of technology -> constrained ability to effect transformations in material world, constrained ability to invent effective technologies Constraints in part cognitive, and learning processes important: but real limits to functionality of artefacts and applicability of knowledge Interplay of actors and their strategies generates development and application of knowledge Unanticipated consequences; n ew actors, alliances, ways of acting

12. Is Information Society evolving? Earlier phases of industrial capitalism have differed considerably over time and space - reflecting differences in culture, politics, technology Information societies - a genre of industrial capitalism - are currently diverse We can anticipate variation among information societies – despite globalisation, etc. ( But how much and on what dimensions? )

13. Evolution of Computing: Moore’s Law etc. For example: no. of transistors per unit, no. of bits communicated, no.of instructions processed per second Various measures of computer power Time  Envelope curve (systems of all types )

14. Evolution of Computing: Mark Weiser’s Overview source: http://www.ubiq.com/hypertext/weiser/UbiHome.html Sales/Year Envelope curve (systems of all types ) MAINFRAME: one computer serves many people PC: one ----- computer per person UBIQUITY: --- many --------- computers per person

15. Information Society v1.0 - v4.0 http://www.emeraldinsight.com/Insight/ViewContentServlet?Filename=Published/EmeraldFullTextArticle/Pdf/2720070203.pdf Distant Local Mobile Ubiquitous 1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/?

16. Information Society v1.0 One computer to many users “ Come here” Expensive Systems requiring… Expert Users using… Crude Peripherals for… Number-Crunching Centralising influence Policies:National Computer Industry Plans Information Technology (Mainframes) Distant Local Mobile Ubiquitous 1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/?

17. Information Society v2.0 Information Technology (PCs) Distant Local Mobile Ubiquitous 1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/? “ At your desk” One to one/several Stand alone systems Challenge to DP centres Powerful local processing: many applications Moderate skills required, simplified interfaces (WIMP/GUIs) Pervasive use by Professionals Policies: IT and telecomms R&D programmes

18. Information Society v3.0 Information Technology (Notebooks, Web) Distant Local Mobile Ubiquitous 1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/? “ Reaching out” and “Getting around” Several to one User-friendly Cheap, Accessible Portable Simple Networking Many devices with embedded IT Policies: Information Society, Superhighway Dedicated/ multifunction Delayering

19. Information Society v4.0 Information Technology (AmI) Distant Local Mobile Ubiquitous 1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/? “ Surrounding you”/ “Ambient” Many to one Disposable/ wearable/ “Invisible” Pervasive Networking Numerous interoperable devices, networks Location, identification, monitoring, tagging Organisation: Googleocracy? Net governance? Policies: Privacy? Security? Data Protection ?

20. Four “phases” of Information Society Islands Archipelago Continent Ecosystem 1960s/70s 1980s/90s 1990s/2000s ?2010 Distant  Local  Mobile  Ubiquitous

21. Evolution of Information Society: Some Issues Great diversity across phases - some continuities, some vast differences – can we extrapolate, then? Great diversity across countries (regions, social groups) - like earlier stages of industrial society - not solely result of policy choices. E.g. Minitel, mobile communications. Great organisational diversity in use of available IT - just as with other technologies - not solely result of sectoral/size differences. E.g centralising/decentralising applications of IS.

22. Additional Powerpoints More detail on Moore’s Law etc. Check out KEIS for background readings for next week, on IT and IS statistics.

23. End of Presentation (if there is not time for the remaining slides!)

24. Moore’s Law (original) Number of transistors on a chip – Gordon Moore (Intel) noted in 1965 that this was doubling every 18 months (these data – 2 years) This example from: http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0593.html?printable=1 Try a google/ google image search on “Moore’s Law”.

25. Moore’s Law (original) Number of transistors on a chip – Image from Wikipedia Try a google/ google image search on “Moore’s Law”.

26. Moore’s Law: Computer Power From a Scientific American article 1960 1970 1980 1990  Millions of Instructions per second (MIPS) 100 10 1.0 0.1 .01 Mainframe Minicompr PC Embedded

27. Moore’s Law (extended) Estimate of PROCESSING POWER (and cost) Kurzweil Image from Wikipedia “ Moore's Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to Turing's relay-based "Robinson" machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal [computers]. “

28. Power increase, price decrease 1.6 years

29. Similar trends – sometimes even more rapid – for many other elements of IT Even Hard Disc Drives!

30. More attractive technology – cheaper, powerful: liable to be adopted

31. But is it a “Law”? People like to search for regularities – maybe they’re imputing trends where they don’t exist? If the trends exist, even if not as rigid and predictable as commentators suggest, how can we understand them? Giovanni Dosi ’s notion of technological trajectory (and paradigm) is useful here… Expectations forged in communities of practice, used as benchmarks which competing firms/ researchers pursue. Expectations need to be realistic in terms of tools, techniques, costs, transformative potentials.

32. Law and Order Many other “laws” People like to search for regularities – maybe they’re imputing trends where they don’t exist? Look on the Web for the debates between Ray Kurzweil and Ilkka Tuomi: cf. Tuomi’s original paper “Life and Death of Moore’s Law” at http://www.jrc.es/~tuomiil/articles/TheLivesAndTheDeathOfMoore.pdf

33. Tuomi’s Analysis Moore changed his formulation (doubling time from 12 to 18 months , and specific parameters from optimal to maximum complexity ) People citing Moore continued to modify the formulation ( per square inch, “processing power” ) Data bearing out the argument are often used in misleading ways (e.g. real doubling time?) … doesn’t really diminish the case that there has been a remarkable accelerating long-run technological evolution, though… There are many arguments suggesting that at some time soon the applicability of the Law will be reduced – difficulties of working with increasingly small scale. (But so far slow-down / halt has been resisted). There are bottlenecks where progress has been slow (e.g. laptop batteries)