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MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
System Stability First
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Regression to the Mean
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reference Class Error
Regression to the Mean
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Base Rate Neglect
Regression to the Mean
Reference Class Error
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Start From Where You Are
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Start From Where You Are
Visualize the Work
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Start From Where You Are
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
Start From Where You Are
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
Start From Where You Are
Focus on Throughput
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
DOD: Destroy the Enemy
“Our first priority is to satisfy the customer
through the early and continuous delivery
of valuable software”
First Principle of the Agile Manifesto
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“Predictability builds and
holds trust, a core Agile value,
better than does delivering
more with less reliability.”
Release Planning
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Precise plans hide uncertainty
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
One Bad Bid
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
One Bad Bid
…a roofer’s view of technical debt.
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Leveraging Uncertainty
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Mark Twain
It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.
Leveraging Uncertainty
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
What is this Estimation Thing?
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Words get written
Words get twisted
Old meanings move in the drift of time
– Jethro Tull
What is this Estimation Thing?
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
The Domain Expert
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
The Domain Expert
“It all ends in tears anyway.”
– Jack Kerouac
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Bundled Assumptions
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Bundled Assumptions
“It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.”
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…a range estimate allows you to quantify
what you’re uncertain about.
Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Expressing Uncertainty
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
You don’t have to commit to
anything that you’re
uncertain about.
Expressing Uncertainty
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Uncertainty
What are decisions would
be affected by additional
information?
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“An iterative process of
reducing uncertainty about
something that matters.”
– Douglas Hubbard
Reducing Uncertainty
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Douglas Hubbard
– Douglas Hubbard
“A quantitatively expressed
reduction of uncertainty
based on observations.”
Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Douglas Hubbard
– Douglas Hubbard
“A quantitatively expressed
reduction of uncertainty
based on observations.”
Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A Mathematical Theory of Communication
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
information is the amount of
uncertainty reduction in a signal.
A Mathematical Theory of Communication
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
… an iterative process of increasing the fidelity of the signal …
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A Definition of Information Entropy
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A Definition of Information Entropy
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Information Entropy
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Information Entropy
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Information Entropy
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…how much does 5 random values reduce entropy?
Reducing Information Entropy
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…a measurement doesn’t have to vanquish uncertainty.
90% probability better than “no clue”
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
90% probability better than “no clue”
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…something less than perfect certainty.
Confidence Interval
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…something less than perfect certainty.
Confidence Interval
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Math Matters
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
1. Nominal
2. Ordinal
3. Rational
4. Interval
A Taxonomy of Measurement Scales
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Rational Scales: Time and Money
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Interval Scales: Story Points
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Interval Scales: Story Points
The arbitrary baseline of an interval scale
is key to understanding
story points.
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Mohs Scale of Mineral Hardness
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Are five one star movies as good
as one five star movie?
Ordinal Scales - 5 Star Rating
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring.
Conflating ordinal and rational scales
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A brontosaurs is any story that’s too big to go into work.
Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
it definitely matters how much bigger
one Tyrannosaurus Rex is from another;
Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…qualitative measurements…
Nominal Scales
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Nominal Scales
…qualitative measurements…
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Nominal Scales
…qualitative measurements…
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…qualitative measurement…
Nominal Scales
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Diving Deeper …
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…The Equivalent Bet
Estimate Validation Techniques
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
……Calibration is a procedure
where you measure against
a known quantity.
Calibration
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Story Decomposition
…right-sizing stories is half the battle.…right-sizing stories is half the battle.
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“Predictability builds and holds trust,
a core Agile value, better than does
delivering more with less reliability.”
— David Anderson
Release Planning and Queue Time
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Estimation
…the mathematics of uncertainty.
MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus

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KEA20 - Michael Godeck - Tuning into predictability

  • 1. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Tuning into Predictability Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  • 2. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Tuning into Predictability Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  • 3. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus System Stability First
  • 4. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Regression to the Mean
  • 5. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reference Class Error Regression to the Mean
  • 6. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Base Rate Neglect Regression to the Mean Reference Class Error
  • 7. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Start From Where You Are
  • 8. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Start From Where You Are Visualize the Work
  • 9. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Start From Where You Are Visualize the Work Limit Work in Progress
  • 10. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Manage the Flow Visualize the Work Limit Work in Progress Start From Where You Are
  • 11. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Manage the Flow Visualize the Work Limit Work in Progress Start From Where You Are Focus on Throughput
  • 12. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus DOD: Destroy the Enemy “Our first priority is to satisfy the customer through the early and continuous delivery of valuable software” First Principle of the Agile Manifesto
  • 13. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus “Predictability builds and holds trust, a core Agile value, better than does delivering more with less reliability.” Release Planning
  • 14. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Precise plans hide uncertainty
  • 15. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus One Bad Bid
  • 16. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus One Bad Bid …a roofer’s view of technical debt.
  • 17. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Leveraging Uncertainty
  • 18. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus – Mark Twain It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you, it’s what you know that ain’t so. Leveraging Uncertainty
  • 19. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus What is this Estimation Thing?
  • 20. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Words get written Words get twisted Old meanings move in the drift of time – Jethro Tull What is this Estimation Thing?
  • 21. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus The Domain Expert
  • 22. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus The Domain Expert “It all ends in tears anyway.” – Jack Kerouac
  • 23. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Bundled Assumptions
  • 24. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Bundled Assumptions “It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you, it’s what you know that ain’t so.”
  • 25. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
  • 26. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …a range estimate allows you to quantify what you’re uncertain about. Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
  • 27. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Expressing Uncertainty
  • 28. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus You don’t have to commit to anything that you’re uncertain about. Expressing Uncertainty
  • 29. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Uncertainty What are decisions would be affected by additional information?
  • 30. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus “An iterative process of reducing uncertainty about something that matters.” – Douglas Hubbard Reducing Uncertainty
  • 31. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus – Douglas Hubbard – Douglas Hubbard “A quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations.” Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
  • 32. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus – Douglas Hubbard – Douglas Hubbard “A quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations.” Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
  • 33. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A Mathematical Theory of Communication
  • 34. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus information is the amount of uncertainty reduction in a signal. A Mathematical Theory of Communication
  • 35. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  • 36. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus … an iterative process of increasing the fidelity of the signal … Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  • 37. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A Definition of Information Entropy
  • 38. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A Definition of Information Entropy
  • 39. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Information Entropy
  • 40. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Information Entropy
  • 41. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Information Entropy
  • 42. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …how much does 5 random values reduce entropy? Reducing Information Entropy
  • 43. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …a measurement doesn’t have to vanquish uncertainty. 90% probability better than “no clue”
  • 44. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus 90% probability better than “no clue”
  • 45. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …something less than perfect certainty. Confidence Interval
  • 46. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …something less than perfect certainty. Confidence Interval
  • 47. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Math Matters
  • 48. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus 1. Nominal 2. Ordinal 3. Rational 4. Interval A Taxonomy of Measurement Scales
  • 49. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Rational Scales: Time and Money
  • 50. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Interval Scales: Story Points
  • 51. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Interval Scales: Story Points The arbitrary baseline of an interval scale is key to understanding story points.
  • 52. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Mohs Scale of Mineral Hardness
  • 53. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Are five one star movies as good as one five star movie? Ordinal Scales - 5 Star Rating
  • 54. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring. Conflating ordinal and rational scales
  • 55. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
  • 56. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A brontosaurs is any story that’s too big to go into work. Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
  • 57. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
  • 58. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus it definitely matters how much bigger one Tyrannosaurus Rex is from another; Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
  • 59. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …qualitative measurements… Nominal Scales
  • 60. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Nominal Scales …qualitative measurements…
  • 61. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Nominal Scales …qualitative measurements…
  • 62. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …qualitative measurement… Nominal Scales
  • 63. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Tuning into Predictability
  • 64. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
  • 65. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
  • 66. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Diving Deeper …
  • 67. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …The Equivalent Bet Estimate Validation Techniques
  • 68. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus ……Calibration is a procedure where you measure against a known quantity. Calibration
  • 69. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Story Decomposition …right-sizing stories is half the battle.…right-sizing stories is half the battle.
  • 70. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus “Predictability builds and holds trust, a core Agile value, better than does delivering more with less reliability.” — David Anderson Release Planning and Queue Time
  • 71. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Estimation …the mathematics of uncertainty.
  • 72. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus