The whole point of estimation is to support decisions. If an estimate doesn't help resolve uncertainty about a decision we have to make, then it doesn't have any value. Estimates are counter-productive when the intention is to set performance targets.
To get value out of estimation, we first need to clarify what we're after: for example, Capacity Planning, Effort Estimation and Release Planning are distinct goals requiring different information to support decisions.
In this session, we'll tell the story of estimation as a quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations, and we'll look at how to apply that in the context of the various estimation goals
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KEA20 - Michael Godeck - Tuning into predictability
1. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
2. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
3. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
System Stability First
4. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Regression to the Mean
5. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Reference Class Error
Regression to the Mean
6. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Base Rate Neglect
Regression to the Mean
Reference Class Error
7. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Start From Where You Are
8. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Start From Where You Are
Visualize the Work
9. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Start From Where You Are
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
10. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
Start From Where You Are
11. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
Start From Where You Are
Focus on Throughput
12. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
DOD: Destroy the Enemy
“Our first priority is to satisfy the customer
through the early and continuous delivery
of valuable software”
First Principle of the Agile Manifesto
13. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“Predictability builds and
holds trust, a core Agile value,
better than does delivering
more with less reliability.”
Release Planning
14. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Precise plans hide uncertainty
15. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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One Bad Bid
16. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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One Bad Bid
…a roofer’s view of technical debt.
17. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Leveraging Uncertainty
18. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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– Mark Twain
It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.
Leveraging Uncertainty
19. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
What is this Estimation Thing?
20. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Words get written
Words get twisted
Old meanings move in the drift of time
– Jethro Tull
What is this Estimation Thing?
21. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
The Domain Expert
22. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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The Domain Expert
“It all ends in tears anyway.”
– Jack Kerouac
23. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Bundled Assumptions
24. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Bundled Assumptions
“It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.”
25. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
26. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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…a range estimate allows you to quantify
what you’re uncertain about.
Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
27. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Expressing Uncertainty
28. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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You don’t have to commit to
anything that you’re
uncertain about.
Expressing Uncertainty
29. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Reducing Uncertainty
What are decisions would
be affected by additional
information?
30. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“An iterative process of
reducing uncertainty about
something that matters.”
– Douglas Hubbard
Reducing Uncertainty
31. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Douglas Hubbard
– Douglas Hubbard
“A quantitatively expressed
reduction of uncertainty
based on observations.”
Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
32. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Douglas Hubbard
– Douglas Hubbard
“A quantitatively expressed
reduction of uncertainty
based on observations.”
Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
33. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A Mathematical Theory of Communication
34. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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information is the amount of
uncertainty reduction in a signal.
A Mathematical Theory of Communication
35. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
36. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
… an iterative process of increasing the fidelity of the signal …
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
37. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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A Definition of Information Entropy
38. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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A Definition of Information Entropy
39. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Reducing Information Entropy
40. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Reducing Information Entropy
41. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Reducing Information Entropy
42. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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…how much does 5 random values reduce entropy?
Reducing Information Entropy
43. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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…a measurement doesn’t have to vanquish uncertainty.
90% probability better than “no clue”
44. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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90% probability better than “no clue”
45. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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…something less than perfect certainty.
Confidence Interval
46. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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…something less than perfect certainty.
Confidence Interval
47. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Math Matters
48. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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1. Nominal
2. Ordinal
3. Rational
4. Interval
A Taxonomy of Measurement Scales
49. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Rational Scales: Time and Money
50. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Interval Scales: Story Points
51. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Interval Scales: Story Points
The arbitrary baseline of an interval scale
is key to understanding
story points.
52. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Mohs Scale of Mineral Hardness
53. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Are five one star movies as good
as one five star movie?
Ordinal Scales - 5 Star Rating
54. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring.
Conflating ordinal and rational scales
55. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
56. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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A brontosaurs is any story that’s too big to go into work.
Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
57. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
58. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
it definitely matters how much bigger
one Tyrannosaurus Rex is from another;
Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
59. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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…qualitative measurements…
Nominal Scales
60. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Nominal Scales
…qualitative measurements…
61. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Nominal Scales
…qualitative measurements…
62. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…qualitative measurement…
Nominal Scales
63. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
66. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Diving Deeper …
67. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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…The Equivalent Bet
Estimate Validation Techniques
68. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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……Calibration is a procedure
where you measure against
a known quantity.
Calibration
69. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
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Story Decomposition
…right-sizing stories is half the battle.…right-sizing stories is half the battle.
70. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“Predictability builds and holds trust,
a core Agile value, better than does
delivering more with less reliability.”
— David Anderson
Release Planning and Queue Time
71. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Estimation
…the mathematics of uncertainty.