3. The way we think about college
drives what counts as success
• Many courses
• Several years
• Credential
• Good for life
• Opens door to
employment
4. The evolving world of work
• Most jobs require mastery of quickly-evolving
technology, requiring retraining
• Workers are moving from jobs that no
longer exist to jobs that may not have
existed when they started their studies
• Employers expect workers to come to the
job fully trained
• Sectors have bypassed academic credentials
and are establishing their own
5. The new reality for workforce
education is short-term certificates
Georgetown University’s Center on Education
and the Workforce:
• Certificates accounted for 22% of post-secondary
awards in 2010, up from 8% in
1980
• Certificates are now the second most
common postsecondary award, ahead of
associate’s degrees and master’s degrees
• 54% of these certificates are short-term
(1 year or less)
6. The crux of the problem
While individual college programs are
being developed that address the
new world of work, our
conversations about success are still
assuming a conventional definition
of the college experience
… so we need a new way to talk about
alternative college pathways.
8. Statewide student data paired with
unemployment insurance earnings
• Bahr (2013): 174,864 students who entered California community
colleges for the first time between 2002–2006 and successfully
engaged in short-term course-taking, by passing six or fewer credits per
term over four semesters
• Bahr (2014): 759,489 students who entered California community
colleges for the first time between 2002–2006
• Fuller (2013): 67,800 students who described their college goal in fall
2010 as “update job skills.”
• Fuller (2014): 68,000 students from the time period of 2002–2007 who
completed credentials or left without a credential and did not transfer
to a four-year institution
9. Statewide student data paired with
surveys of former students
Greaney (2013): 11,512 students who either earned an
award or had taken nine or more vocational units but
stopped taking classes prior to earning an award
10. Key Finding: Community college offers
a strong return-on-investment
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Associate Degree Long-Term
Certificate
(>29 units)
Short-Term
Certificate
(6-29 units)
Low-Credit Award
(<6 units)
7%
17%
13% 11%
Bahr, 2014
Earnings Gains By Credential Length
11. Key Finding: Earnings gains vary
significantly by field of study
5
13
Workforce associate degree fields of study
10
Non-workforce associate degree fields of study
Bahr, 2014
Attainment of Statistically Significant Wage Gains,
By Workforce and Non-Workforce Fields of Study
Wage gain
No wage gain
12. Key Finding: Many non-completers
had significant earnings gains
Return in Quarterly Earnings, by Subfield and Credits
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Water and Wastewater Technology
Administration of Justice
Electronics and Electric Technology
Manufacturing and Industrial Tech
Fire Technology
Computer Infrastructure and Support
Civil and Construction Management Tech
General Information Technology
Increase in Quarterly Earnings
6 credits
9 credits
12 credits
Within 24
workforce
subfields,
students in
16 saw
significant
earnings
gains after
taking only a
couple of
courses.
Bahr, 2013
13. Key Finding: Many non-completers
had significant earnings gains
Few students
with an
“update job
skills” goal
earned a
community
college
credential,
but they did
increase
earnings 11%
in one year.
Fuller, 2013
Return in Quarterly Earnings
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
$49,000 $54,600
Pre-college earnings Post-college earnings
14. Key Finding: Many non-completers had
significant earnings gains
Non-completers earned more than completers in the
following groups:
• students aged 35 and older
• students aged 25 or older taking ten units or less
• fields like real estate, automotive technology,
electronics & electronic technology, administration of
justice
• goals of “personal development” or “update job skills”
Fuller, 2014
15. Key Finding: Many non-completers
had significant earnings gains
Greaney, 2013
Pre- and Post-College Earnings by Completion Status
Non-completers
have a
smaller
percentage
increase than
leavers, but
overall earn
higher
wages.
Non-Completer Completer
Hourly Wage PRE $21.19 $19.03
Hourly Wage POST $25.87 $24.78
Increase in Wage $4.68 $5.75
Percent Change 22.1% 30.2%
16. Key Finding: Non-completers are
“non-traditional” students
Non-completers are older
• Bahr: average age of 37
• Fuller: average age of 38
• Greaney: average age of 37
Many non-completers have already been to college
• Fuller: 33% of “skills upgrade” students had attended a four-year
college prior to enrolling in community college
• Greaney: 27% of non-completing students had earned a
bachelor’s degree or a higher degree prior to enrolling in
community college coursework
17. Key Finding: Economic value may come
from content rather than the credential
Bahr, 2014
Wage Premium for Completing a College Credential
Field of Study
Low-Credit
Award
< 6 units
Short
Certificate
6-29 units
Long
Certificate
30+ units
Assoc
Degree
60+ units
Health +6% +10% +26% +99%
Business & Management +10% +5% Not significant Not significant
Public & Protective Services Not significant +13% +10% Not significant
Engineering & Industrial Tech Not significant Not significant Not significant +7%
Family & Consumer Sciences Not significant +5% Not significant Not significant
Commercial Services Too few awards +9% Not significant Not significant
Information Technology Too few awards Not significant Not significant Not significant
18. Unknown Factor: The value of
third-party credentials
• California Career and Technical Education
Outcomes Survey: 41% of non-completers
reported earning a third-party credential
• Census Bureau Survey of Income and
Program Participation: third-party credentials
boost the income of those with “some
college” by 13% and those with an associate’s
degree by 18%
19. Implications: Current success metrics may
miss the areas of biggest impact
• The bulk of economic value from a
community college education is in workforce
training, particularly short-term options
• Completion is not critical in most workforce
training pathways (for older students)
• Success metrics need to be nuanced and take
into account program of study, credential
type, and student characteristics
20. Implications: Badging
• Sub-skills: Badges could help identify discrete
sub-skills within a larger program of study
that are valuable in the workplace
• Measurement: Badges could provide a means
of quantifying the value of short-term
coursetaking for accountability purposes
21. Resources
Videos and Discussion Guides
• “Building More Comprehensive Measures of Workforce Training
Success” (4 minutes)
• “How Workforce Pathways Shape College Outcomes and Earnings
Gains” (8 minutes)
• Videos are paired with discussion guides aimed at different
audiences (policy makers, college leadership, CTE directors,
faculty)
Available at:
http://doingwhatmatters.cccco.edu/CollegeLeadershipResources/Informing
Policy.aspx
Policy Brief
• “The Ones That Got Away: Why Completing a College Degree Is
Not the Only Way to Succeed” (22-page summary of research with
case studies)
Available at: http://www.wested.org/project/quantifying-non-completion-pathways-
to-success/
22. Keep in Touch: Tell us what you find
• Contact Kathy Booth at
kbooth@wested.org to share your work to
measure workforce training success
• To keep in the loop about new
developments, visit
http://www.wested.org/project/quantify
ing-non-completion-pathways-to-success/
