Manifesto for Transforming Postsecondary Education for Post-traditional Learners
1. Post-traditional Learners and the
Transformation of Postsecondary Education:
A College Leaders’ Manifesto
Conference on Adult Learner Enrollment Management
July 16, 2013
Louis Soares
VP, Policy Research and Strategy
American Council on Education
2. Outline
• PSE Knowledge and Skills Demand
• Completion Goals
• Challenges to Goals
• Innovation is in Order
• Innovation Framework
• Basis for Innovation
• Underground Learning Scene
• Manifesto
3. TIFFANY M.
• 28 Years Old
• 9 years of PSE
• Six colleges and universities
• $25,000 in debt
• 5 repeated Gen Ed courses
• Worked Full-time 6 of 9 years
4. Tiffany M.
We call her:
At-risk
Working Adult Student
Only Part-time
Non-traditional
She Is:
Courageous
Helping Pay the Mortgage
A Multitasker
Post-traditional
6. Global Economy in A Snapshot
787 Dreamliner
5 States
9 Countries
6 Languages
14 Suppliers
Global Value Chains
Standards-based
Technology-Driven
Cross-disciplinary Teams
Learning is built into Work
8. Education Requirements of Jobs 2018
High School
Dropouts
10%
High School
Graduates
27%
Some College
18%
Bachelor's Degree
23%
Graduate Degree
10%
Associate's Degree
12%
Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education
and the Workforce Forecasts of Education Demand
2018
Labor force in 2018:
166 million
9. Technology and the Rise of the Expertise Economy
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How
Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press.
Expert Thinking
Complex Communication
Routine Manual
Non-routine Manual
Routine Cognitive
10. PSE Skills Demand Is Driving Other
Non-collegiate Learning Trends
• Certification and Licensure
– Required in Job Growth areas of healthcare, IT, Education, Green Tech
– C/L require custom curricula and assessment with third party validation
• Dynamic Labor Market requires occupational credentials for
matching candidates with job requirements. Every year:
– A third of the entire U.S. labor force changes jobs
– 30 million Americans work at jobs that did not exist in the previous
quarter
– Many occupations that workers have today did not exist five years ago
12. President Obama’s 2020 Goal
Goal
• 10 million more graduates from community colleges,
four-year colleges and universities by 2020
(beyond 2+ million expected due to growth)
Goal
• Every American completes one year or more of
higher education or advanced training in his/her
lifetime
Result
• “Best educated, most competitive workforce
in the world”
12
13. # of Credentials Source
1.3 million degrees projected population growth
4.3 million degrees increase high school graduation rates, college-going rates of recent HS
graduates, and postsecondary graduation rates
4.2 million degrees half of the 8.4 million adults (25-34) w/ some college complete degree
2.6 million degrees third of the 8.8 million adults (35-44) w/ some college complete degree
3.4 million degrees fifteen percent of the 22.7 million adults (35-44) who have completed
high school, but not attended college, complete a degree
10 million Post-traditional Learners Completing Degrees
A Key to achieving degree production benchmarks by 2020
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, 2010
15. Moody’s Investors Service
Announcement: Moody’s 2013 outlook for entire US Higher Education sector changed to negative
Global Credit Research 16 Jan 2013
"The US higher education sector has hit a critical juncture in the
evolution of its business model…….“
“……Even market-leading universities with diversified revenue
streams are facing diminished prospects for revenue growth…..“
“……..most universities will have to lower their cost structures to
achieve long-term financial sustainability and fund future
initiatives.”
Eva Bogaty, Assistant
Vice-President, Moody’s Investor Service
16. Economic Pressure Constrains Tuition Growth
• 35% of private and 21% of public colleges are unable to achieve tuition revenue growth
in FY 2011. (Trend continues into 2013.)
• Nearly 50% of universities are reporting lower enrollment growth.
20. •
QUALITY IN QUESTION
Study of 2,300 undergraduates
– 45 percent “demonstrated no significant
gains in critical thinking, analytical
reasoning, and written communications
during the first two years of college”
21. Changing Undergraduate Demographics(2010)
• 17.6 million undergraduates
• 15 percent attend four-year colleges and live on campus
• 43 percent attend two year colleges
• 37 percent of undergrads enrolled part-time
• 38 percent of those enrolled are older than 25 and one quarter are older 30
• Nearly a quarter of postsecondary students in the U.S. are parents
• One-third of all undergraduates work full-time & 44 percent work part-time
• Over half of today's students are seeking a "sub-baccalaureate" credential
• 2008-09, conferred 806,000 certs. & 787,000 AA’s versus 1.6 million BAs
22. In Short
Undergraduates are –
– Getting older
– Taking longer to finish
– Working more
– Have their own kids
– Seeking credentials with labor market relevance
They are becoming more like what we used to call adult or
non-traditional learners.
23. More Students
Fewer are Traditional
More Diversity in Learning Needs
Pressure for Accountability
Less Money
INNOVATION IS IN ORDER
24. Postsecondary Education Innovation
The intentional discovery and application of ---
new institutional, instructional, credentialing and finance
models—
that maintain quality and reduce costs and increase value.
26. Suggested Approach to Innovation
• Target Non-consumption, grow the market
• Enabling Technology, simplify and routinize product service
• New Business Model – ways to organize, people, technology resources
• Target non-consumers, Jobs to Be Done
– Functional, emotional and social dimensions of circumstances in which they buy
• Why no innovation at scale in PSE?
– No sophisticated, Hi-tech and Hi- touch business models at scale
• Strategy for PSE Market
– innovate by growing the market based on Jobs to Be Done by Post-traditional
Learners
27. Sector Growth by Engaging
Nonconsumers, Online Example
– Simpler
– Tailored to PtL
– Redefined Quality
– Better Outcome/Completion
– Reduce Cost/Price
15 Percent
85 Percent
31. Non Or Under Consumers
(Post-traditional Learners)
Education
Attainment
# of population % of population
Less than ninth grade 7,972,497 4.87%
Ninth to 12th grade, no
diploma
12, 539, 457 7.65%
High school grad/GED 44,350,497 27.07%
Some college/No degree 36,209,776 22.10%
Associate 13,832,109 8.44%
Bachelor’s 31,423,077 19.18%
Graduate or professional
degree
17,527,995 10.70%
32. And More Want To Take Work Related Courses
• National Household Survey (NEHS), of the U.S. Census Bureau (2005)
– Increase in # of adults participating in some form of PS education or training
From 58 million in 1991 to 90 million in 1999.
– 37M adults interested in work-related education but are unable to participate.
Source: Bosworth, Brian and Victoria Choitz. Held Back: How Student Aid Programs Fail Working Adults. Arlington, MA: 2002.
33. Post-traditional Learner Commonalities
Post-traditional Learners:
• Are needed wage earners for themselves or their families
• Combine work and learning at the same time or move between them frequently.
• Pursue knowledge, skills, and credentials that employers will recognize and compensate.
• Require developmental education to be successful in college-level courses.
• Seek academic/career advising to navigate their complex path to a degree.
34. Job To Be Done:
More fluid form of college-going,
longer term, episodic participation
• Modular, easy-to-access instruction
• Blended academic and occupational curricula
• Progressive credentialing of knowledge and skills (sub-degree level)
• Financial, academic, and career advising
• Public policy that reflects their complex task in balancing life, work and education
35. Millennial Generation In College
• More Choices
• Experiential and Exploratory Learners
• Flexibility / Convenience
• Personalization and Customization
• Collaboration & Intelligence
37. Non-credit PSE
Est. # served 22
million
Credit PSE
Est. # served 21
million
Source: Georgetown
Center on Education and
the Workforce, 2011
Investment in Educating Adults that is Not Going to Higher Education Institutions
39. Non-Credit Postsecondary Education
Encompasses Learning that:
• Takes place outside of the formal college classroom
• Builds knowledge, skills and abilities for use in work and life
• Can happen in varied settings including:
– Workplace (incl. unions)
– Non-credit side of accredited institutions
– Proprietary training schools
– Community-based organizations
– Military Service
– Online (unaccredited)
– Volunteer Experiences
40. Non-Credit v. Credit-bearing Learning
Credit-bearing Postsecondary
Education and training
Type
Credit-bearing Courses
Providers(accredited)
Public 2-year
Public 4-year
Private 2-year
Private non-profit 4-year
Private for-profit 4-year
Non-Credit Postsecondary
Education and training
Type
Employer Training
Apprenticeships
Public Workforce Training
Military
Volunteer Experiences
Providers
Business Community
Community-base organizations
Cross-sector partnerships
Community colleges
Armed Forces
Proprietary Firms
Online Providers of Content
Emerging Ecosystem
To Validate Non-credit Learning and Beyond
42. Why Is There an Ecosystem Emerging
• Credential Recognition
– Credit-bearing coursework yields AA and BA
– AA/BA are the most recognized/portable credentials in the labor market
– Allows learners to add outside learning toward a degree/credential
• Diverse Providers
– Different objectives, delivery methods and learning outcomes
– Makes it difficult to assure quality
• Awarding Credit Challenge
– Even when NC Education has robust learning outcomes
– No standard translation to Credit-bearing coursework
43. Ways of Awarding Credit for
Non-credit Learning (PLA)
Many of the players in the ecosystem participate in one or
more of these approaches:
• Individualized Student Portfolios
• Credit For Training
• Credit By Examination
• Competency-Based Education
45. • Illustrates what students should be
expected to know and be able to
do once they earn their degrees.
• Proposes learning outcomes to
benchmark the associate,
bachelor’s & master’s degrees.
• Field Development in: 100
institutions, 30 states and six
disciplines
Five Dimensions of Learning Outcomes
47. UOP/MI Partnership reflects broader trend called stackable
certificates to link Degrees (for-credit) and Workplace
Certifications and Certificates (non-credit)
Courses
Certificate
Degrees
Certificate
Certifications
Apprenticeships
Above concept known as “stackable certificates”
59. College Leaders’ Manifesto
• Go Beyond the Academy to Take Leadership – A Consortium for
Teaching and Learning
• Rebuild the Definition of Postsecondary Education from the Post-
traditional Learner Out
• Be Entrepreneurs of a New Venture, Not Stewards of Existing
Institutions
61. Public Policy/Innovation Opportunity
Product Process Marketing Organization
Affordability
Pell
IBR
AOTC
Section 127
Reverse
engineer
program to
expected
income
Section 127
Pitch to
employers
Keep Costs Down
Campus-based Aid
Race to the Top
First in the World
Competency
Based
Community Colleges
TAACCCT
CC to Career Fund
Dev. Ed
Curriculum
Accountability/Transpare
ncy
Performance Measures
Fin. Aid Shopping Sheet
College Scorecard
Military Initiatives
Modular
Program
Outside
Title IV
Develop better
customers
Front page
outcomes and
debt
www.google.com
62. A New Value Network For Credentials
“COLLEGE”
Source: Burck Smith, Straighterline, 2012
64. New Credentials - Overthrow BA Hegemony
Knowledge Worker Journeyman License
Adaptive Experts
T-Shaped Professionals
Occupational
Credential
AP in
statistics
AP in English
language
and
Composition
69. Declining Support
For Higher Education
New Hampshire -39.4%
Arizona -25.1%
Louisiana -18.5%
Colorado -15.4%
Tennessee -14.7%
Virginia -14.7%
Washington -14.5%
Oklahoma 14.5%
Nevada -14.0%
California -13.5%
Pennsylvania -13.4%
Wisconsin -13.3%
Wyoming -12.7%
Connecticut -12.2%
Michigan -12.2%
Florida -12.0%
Ohio -11.8%
Georgia -11.5%
South Dakota -8.7%
Oregon -8.0%
South Carolina -7.5%
New York -7.1%
Missouri -7.1%
Minnesota -7.1%
Kansas -7.0%
Vermont -6.4%
Mississippi -6.3%
New Mexico -5.7%
Massachusetts -5.3%
Alabama -4.7%
Idaho -4.1%
North Carolina -3.7%
Montana -3.5%
Kentucky -3.4%
Iowa -2.6%
New Jersey -2.5%
Maine -2.1%
Arkansas -1.3%
Indiana -1.0%
Utah -0.8%
Nebraska -0.5%
Hawaii 0.2%
Delaware 0.3%
Maryland 0.6%
West Virginia 1.7%
Texas 3.1%
Alaska 3.8%
North Dakota 10.4%
Illinois 12.1%
Rhode Island 13.1%
One-Year
Percent Changes
in State Fiscal Support
for Higher Education
(FY2012 - FY2013)
Illinois State University Center for the Study of Education Policy
Grapevine Fiscal Year 2011-12 Data – Updated March 15, 2012
